IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v81y2019icp25-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional development and carbon emissions in China

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng, Jiali
  • Mi, Zhifu
  • Coffman, D'Maris
  • Milcheva, Stanimira
  • Shan, Yuli
  • Guan, Dabo
  • Wang, Shouyang

Abstract

China announced at the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015 that the country would reach peak carbon emissions around 2030. Since then, widespread attention has been devoted to determining when and how this goal will be achieved. This study aims to explore the role of China's changing regional development patterns in the achievement of this goal. This study uses the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to estimate seven socioeconomic drivers of the changes in CO2 emissions in China since 2000. The results show that China's carbon emissions have plateaued since 2012 mainly because of energy efficiency gains and structural upgrades (i.e., industrial structure, energy mix and regional structure). Regional structure, measured by provincial economic growth shares, has drastically reduced CO2 emissions since 2012. The effects of these drivers on emissions changes varied across regions due to their different regional development patterns. Industrial structure and energy mix resulted in emissions growth in some regions, but these two drivers led to emissions reduction at the national level. For example, industrial structure reduced China's CO2 emissions by 1.0% from 2013 to 2016; however, it increased CO2 emissions in the Northeast and Northwest regions by 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively. Studying China's plateauing CO2 emissions in the new normal stage at the regional level yields a strong recommendation that China's regions cooperate to improve development patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng, Jiali & Mi, Zhifu & Coffman, D'Maris & Milcheva, Stanimira & Shan, Yuli & Guan, Dabo & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Regional development and carbon emissions in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 25-36.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:81:y:2019:i:c:p:25-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.03.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988319300829
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.03.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Fergus Green & Nicholas Stern, 2017. "China's changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 423-442, May.
    3. Yu, Shiwei & Zheng, Shuhong & Li, Xia & Li, Longxi, 2018. "China can peak its energy-related carbon emissions before 2025: Evidence from industry restructuring," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 91-107.
    4. Qi, Tianyu & Weng, Yuyan & Zhang, Xiliang & He, Jiankun, 2016. "An analysis of the driving factors of energy-related CO2 emission reduction in China from 2005 to 2013," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 15-22.
    5. Kang, Jidong & Zhao, Tao & Liu, Nan & Zhang, Xin & Xu, Xianshuo & Lin, Tao, 2014. "A multi-sectoral decomposition analysis of city-level greenhouse gas emissions: Case study of Tianjin, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 562-571.
    6. Zhifu Mi & Jing Meng & Dabo Guan & Yuli Shan & Malin Song & Yi-Ming Wei & Zhu Liu & Klaus Hubacek, 2017. "Chinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Ang, B.W & Zhang, F.Q & Choi, Ki-Hong, 1998. "Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 489-495.
    8. Wu, Libo & Kaneko, Shinji & Matsuoka, Shunji, 2005. "Driving forces behind the stagnancy of China's energy-related CO2 emissions from 1996 to 1999: the relative importance of structural change, intensity change and scale change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 319-335, February.
    9. Chen, Anping & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2015. "Emission reduction policy: A regional economic analysis for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 136-152.
    10. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2008. "Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 229-247, May.
    11. Weber, Christopher L. & Peters, Glen P. & Guan, Dabo & Hubacek, Klaus, 2008. "The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3572-3577, September.
    12. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    13. Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
    14. Ma, Chunbo & Stern, David I., 2008. "China's changing energy intensity trend: A decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1037-1053, May.
    15. Hering, Laura & Poncet, Sandra, 2014. "Environmental policy and exports: Evidence from Chinese cities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 296-318.
    16. Jan Fagerberg & Bart Verspagen, 1996. "Heading for Divergence? Regional Growth in Europe Reconsidered," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 431-448, September.
    17. Wang, Can & Chen, Jining & Zou, Ji, 2005. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission in China: 1957–2000," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 73-83.
    18. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
    19. Rios, Vicente & Gianmoena, Lisa, 2018. "Convergence in CO2 emissions: A spatial economic analysis with cross-country interactions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 222-238.
    20. Zhu Liu & Steven J. Davis & Kuishuang Feng & Klaus Hubacek & Sai Liang & Laura Diaz Anadon & Bin Chen & Jingru Liu & Jinyue Yan & Dabo Guan, 2016. "Targeted opportunities to address the climate–trade dilemma in China," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 201-206, February.
    21. Hoekstra, Rutger & van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M., 2003. "Comparing structural decomposition analysis and index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 39-64, January.
    22. Duan, Hongbo & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Dietzenbacher, Erik & Pei, Jiansuo & Yang, Cuihong, 2012. "Trade, production fragmentation, and China's carbon dioxide emissions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 88-101.
    24. Zhang, Wei & Li, Ke & Zhou, Dequn & Zhang, Wenrui & Gao, Hui, 2016. "Decomposition of intensity of energy-related CO2 emission in Chinese provinces using the LMDI method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 369-381.
    25. Dong, Kangyin & Hochman, Gal & Zhang, Yaqing & Sun, Renjin & Li, Hui & Liao, Hua, 2018. "CO2 emissions, economic and population growth, and renewable energy: Empirical evidence across regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 180-192.
    26. Jeong, Kyonghwa & Kim, Suyi, 2013. "LMDI decomposition analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in the Korean manufacturing sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1245-1253.
    27. Zhu Liu & Dabo Guan & Wei Wei & Steven J. Davis & Philippe Ciais & Jin Bai & Shushi Peng & Qiang Zhang & Klaus Hubacek & Gregg Marland & Robert J. Andres & Douglas Crawford-Brown & Jintai Lin & Hongya, 2015. "Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 524(7565), pages 335-338, August.
    28. Michael Grubb & Fu Sha & Thomas Spencer & Nick Hughes & Zhongxiang Zhang & Paolo Agnolucci, 2015. "A review of Chinese CO 2 emission projections to 2030: the role of economic structure and policy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(sup1), pages 7-39, December.
    29. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining, 2009. "Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2930-2940, August.
    30. Wei Li & Shuang Sun & Hao Li, 2015. "Decomposing the decoupling relationship between energy-related CO 2 emissions and economic growth in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 977-997, November.
    31. Shi, Xinzheng & Xu, Zhufeng, 2018. "Environmental regulation and firm exports: Evidence from the eleventh Five-Year Plan in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 187-200.
    32. Zhang, Youguo & Tang, Zhipeng, 2015. "Driving factors of carbon embodied in China's provincial exports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 445-454.
    33. Liu, Lan-Cui & Fan, Ying & Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5892-5900, November.
    34. Duan, Hongbo & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-60.
    35. Ang, B.W. & Liu, F.L., 2001. "A new energy decomposition method: perfect in decomposition and consistent in aggregation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 537-548.
    36. Guo, Ju’e & Zhang, Zengkai & Meng, Lei, 2012. "China’s provincial CO2 emissions embodied in international and interprovincial trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 486-497.
    37. Jiang, Xuemei & Guan, Dabo & López, Luis Antonio, 2018. "The global CO2 emission cost of geographic shifts in international sourcing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 122-134.
    38. Juan Wang & Tao Zhao & Xianshuo Xu & Xiaohu Zhang, 2016. "Exploring the changes of energy-related carbon intensity in China: an extended Divisia index decomposition," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 501-521, August.
    39. Glen P. Peters & Robbie M. Andrew & Josep G. Canadell & Sabine Fuss & Robert B. Jackson & Jan Ivar Korsbakken & Corinne Le Quéré & Nebojsa Nakicenovic, 2017. "Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(2), pages 118-122, February.
    40. Zhang, Youguo, 2015. "Provincial responsibility for carbon emissions in China under different principles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 142-153.
    41. Zhu Liu & Steven J. Davis & Kuishuang Feng & Klaus Hubacek & Sai Liang & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Bin Chen & Liu, Jingru & Yan, Jinyue & Dabo Guan, "undated". "Targeted opportunities to address the climate-trade dilemma in China," Working Paper 336456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    42. Zhang, Ming & Guo, Fangyan, 2013. "Analysis of rural residential commercial energy consumption in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 222-229.
    43. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Bing Wang & Jing Meng & Zhu Liu & Yuli Shan & Jingru Liu & Dabo Guan, 2017. "Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 103, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    44. Zhang, Ming & Mu, Hailin & Ning, Yadong & Song, Yongchen, 2009. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission over 1991-2006 in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2122-2128, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data of three sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 772-787.
    2. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Xie, Dejun & Li, Ji & Miao, Lixin & Yang, Peng, 2017. "Sector decomposition of China’s national economic carbon emissions and its policy implication for national ETS development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 855-867.
    3. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Decomposing the change in energy consumption in China's nonferrous metal industry: An empirical analysis based on the LMDI method," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2652-2663.
    4. Xu, Shi-Chun & He, Zheng-Xia & Long, Ru-Yin, 2014. "Factors that influence carbon emissions due to energy consumption in China: Decomposition analysis using LMDI," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 182-193.
    5. Yang Yu & Qiuyue Kong, 2017. "Analysis on the influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China based on LMDI method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1691-1707, September.
    6. Liang, Wei & Gan, Ting & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Dynamic evolution of characteristics and decomposition of factors influencing industrial carbon dioxide emissions in China: 1991–2015," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 93-106.
    7. Román-Collado, Rocío & Cansino, José M. & Botia, Camilo, 2018. "How far is Colombia from decoupling? Two-level decomposition analysis of energy consumption changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 687-700.
    8. Dong, Kangyin & Hochman, Gal & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2020. "Do drivers of CO2 emission growth alter overtime and by the stage of economic development?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Zhang, Yan & Zhang, Jinyun & Yang, Zhifeng & Li, Shengsheng, 2011. "Regional differences in the factors that influence China’s energy-related carbon emissions, and potential mitigation strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7712-7718.
    10. Yanan Chen & Sheng Lin, 2015. "Decomposition and allocation of energy-related carbon dioxide emission allowance over provinces of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1893-1909, April.
    11. Kang, Jidong & Zhao, Tao & Liu, Nan & Zhang, Xin & Xu, Xianshuo & Lin, Tao, 2014. "A multi-sectoral decomposition analysis of city-level greenhouse gas emissions: Case study of Tianjin, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 562-571.
    12. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Using an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index approach to assess the roles of economic factors on industrial CO2 emissions of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 101-114.
    13. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s mining industry: Evidence and policy implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 77-87.
    14. Jidong Kang & Tao Zhao & Xiaosong Ren & Tao Lin, 2012. "Using decomposition analysis to evaluate the performance of China’s 30 provinces in CO 2 emission reductions over 2005–2009," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 999-1013, November.
    15. Lei Liu & Shanshan Wang & Ke Wang & Ruiqin Zhang & Xiaoyan Tang, 2016. "LMDI decomposition analysis of industry carbon emissions in Henan Province, China: comparison between different 5-year plans," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 997-1014, January.
    16. Lei Liu & Shanshan Wang & Ke Wang & Ruiqin Zhang & Xiaoyan Tang, 2016. "LMDI decomposition analysis of industry carbon emissions in Henan Province, China: comparison between different 5-year plans," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 997-1014, January.
    17. Ma, Chunbo & Stern, David I., 2008. "China's changing energy intensity trend: A decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1037-1053, May.
    18. Ma, Chunbo, 2010. "Account for sector heterogeneity in China's energy consumption: Sector price indices vs. GDP deflator," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 24-29, January.
    19. Linwei Ma & Chinhao Chong & Xi Zhang & Pei Liu & Weiqi Li & Zheng Li & Weidou Ni, 2018. "LMDI Decomposition of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Based on Energy and CO 2 Allocation Sankey Diagrams: The Method and an Application to China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-37, January.
    20. Patiño, Lourdes Isabel & Alcántara, Vicent & Padilla, Emilio, 2021. "Driving forces of CO2 emissions and energy intensity in Colombia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; LMDI; Regional development; Structural changes; New normal; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:81:y:2019:i:c:p:25-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.