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Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability

  • Chang-Jin Kim

    ()

    (University of Washington and Korea University)

  • Cheolbeom Park

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

The conventional dividend-price ratio is highly persistent, and the literature reports mixed evidence on its role in predicting stock returns. In particular, its predictive power seems to be sensitive to the choice of the sample period. We argue that the decreasing number of firms with traditional dividend-payout policy is responsible for these results, and develop a model in which the long-run relationship between the dividends and stock price is time-varying. An adjusted dividend-price ratio that accounts for the time-varying long-run relationship is stationary with considerably less persistence than the conventional dividend-price ratio. Furthermore, the predictive regression model that employs the adjusted dividend-price ratio as a regressor outperforms the random-walk model in terms of long-horizon out-of-sample predictability. These results are robust with respect to the firm size.

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Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Korea University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 1205.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:1205
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  1. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 405-28.
  4. Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 91-99, February.
  5. Park, Joon Y. & Hahn, Sang B., 1999. "Cointegrating Regressions With Time Varying Coefficients," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(05), pages 664-703, October.
  6. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
  7. Bierens, Herman J. & Martins, Luis F., 2010. "Time-Varying Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(05), pages 1453-1490, October.
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