Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability
The conventional dividend-price ratio is highly persistent, and the literature reports mixed evidence on its role in predicting stock returns. In particular, its predictive power seems to be sensitive to the choice of the sample period. We argue that the decreasing number of firms with traditional dividend-payout policy is responsible for these results, and develop a model in which the long-run relationship between the dividends and stock price is time-varying. An adjusted dividend-price ratio that accounts for the time-varying long-run relationship is stationary with considerably less persistence than the conventional dividend-price ratio. Furthermore, the predictive regression model that employs the adjusted dividend-price ratio as a regressor outperforms the random-walk model in terms of long-horizon out-of-sample predictability. These results are robust with respect to the firm size.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: (82-2) 928-4948
Web page: http://econ.korea.ac.kr/~ri
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994.
"By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior,"
CRSP working papers
412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Park, Joon Y. & Hahn, Sang B., 1999. "Cointegrating Regressions With Time Varying Coefficients," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(05), pages 664-703, October.
- Bierens, Herman J. & Martins, Luis F., 2010. "Time-Varying Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(05), pages 1453-1490, October.
- Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
- Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 91-99, February.
- Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 405-28.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:1205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kim, Jisoo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.