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Which predictor is more predictive for Bitcoin volatility? And why?

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  • Chao Liang
  • Yaojie Zhang
  • Xiafei Li
  • Feng Ma

Abstract

Being more and more popular in the past 10 years, Bitcoin has drawn extensive attention from the press, scholars, and practitioners. The aim of this paper is to investigate which predictor is more predictive for Bitcoin volatility from the aspects of in‐sample and out‐of‐sample in a high‐speed changing world. We utilise the GARCH‐MIDAS model to examine the predictive power of five crucial predictors, including VIX, GVZ, Google Trends, GEPU, and GPR. Our findings provide strong evidence that GVZ exhibits strongest predictability for Bitcoin volatility over other competing predictors. Other empirical results based on different out‐of‐sample forecasting periods, alternative loss functions and combination methods further ensure our major conclusions are robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Liang & Yaojie Zhang & Xiafei Li & Feng Ma, 2022. "Which predictor is more predictive for Bitcoin volatility? And why?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1947-1961, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:2:p:1947-1961
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2252
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    3. Liang, Chao & Xia, Zhenglan & Lai, Xiaodong & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Natural gas volatility prediction: Fresh evidence from extreme weather and extended GARCH-MIDAS-ES model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Long, Huaigang & Demir, Ender & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2022. "Is geopolitical risk priced in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Skander Slim & Ibrahim Tabche & Yosra Koubaa & Mohamed Osman & Andreas Karathanasopoulos, 2023. "Forecasting realized volatility of Bitcoin: The informative role of price duration," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1909-1929, November.
    6. Zhang, Li & Li, Yan & Yu, Sixin & Wang, Lu, 2023. "Risk transmission of El Niño-induced climate change to regional Green Economy Index," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 860-872.
    7. Wang, Chen & Shen, Dehua & Li, Youwei, 2022. "Aggregate Investor Attention and Bitcoin Return: The Long Short-term Memory Networks Perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

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