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Eyes on Romania: what to look when investing here?

Author

Listed:
  • Tatomir, Cristina F.
  • Popovici, Oana

Abstract

In this paper we identify a framework of the main macroeconomic indicators an investor must look when investing in a country, depending on his activity business sector. Using a qualitative method of research on the Romanian case in period of 2000-2010, we establish that a series of leading indicators, as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, inflation rate and industrial production, are appropriate to get a brief snapshot of the economic outlook of a country. The following period, since 2011 to 2014, confirm our results. Beside the traditional indicators, we set as significant the degree of business cycles synchronization with the European Union (EU) in order to predict the next path of the Romanian economy. We use a structural divergence index for assessing the similarity of economic structure between Romania and EU. The results of this study confirm that Romania lags behind EU, offering the possibility to decide the next step of an investor’s business strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatomir, Cristina F. & Popovici, Oana, 2011. "Eyes on Romania: what to look when investing here?," MPRA Paper 36140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36140
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36140/1/MPRA_paper_36140.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. W.Jos Jansen & Ad C.J.Stokman, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-10, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
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    3. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
    4. Furceri, Davide & Karras, Georgios, 2006. "Are the new EU members ready for the EURO?: A comparison of costs and benefits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-38, January.
    5. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    6. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar, 2003. "Restructuring the ECB," CESifo Working Paper Series 1084, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Dumitru, Ionut, 2009. "Adoptarea euro in Romania
      [Euro adoption in Romania]
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    8. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    9. Miao Wang & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment Outflows and Business-cycle Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 146-163, February.
    10. Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: An Empirical Investigation based on Cross-Country Comparison," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(1), pages 75-81.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign direct investment; leading indicators; business cycles synchronization;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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