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How Likely Is the Zero Lower Bound?

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Abstract

We estimate the probability that the federal funds rate will be at or below the zero lower bound over a ten-year time horizon. We do so by specifying and estimating a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for key US macroeconomic aggregates. Based on the estimated model, we generate a distribution of future outcomes from which we compute such probabilities. We find that the zero lower bound probability ranges between 15 percent and 30 percent in the longer term depending on the specific measure used. In the near term, this probability is effectively zero. Robustness checks for historic episodes suggest that the TVP-VAR captures the underlying dynamics well and that it would have put substantial likelihood on the interest rate being at the zero lower bound during 2009-14.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes, 2019. "How Likely Is the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 41-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:00065
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hess Chung & Jean‐Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 47-82, February.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Structural changes in the US economy: Is there a role for monetary policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 477-490, February.
    3. Michael Connolly & Taeyoung Doh, 2012. "The state space representation and estimation of a time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility," Research Working Paper RWP 12-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance under Alternative Specifications of Time‐Varying Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 551-575, June.
    5. Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes & Andrew Owens, 2016. "Beveridge Curve Shifts and Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 3Q, pages 197-226.
    6. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
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