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Modeling COVID-19 Cases Statistically and Evaluating Their Effect on the Economy of Countries

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  • Hanns de la Fuente-Mella

    (Escuela de Comercio, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso 2362735, Chile)

  • Rolando Rubilar

    (Instituto de Estadística, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso 2360102, Chile)

  • Karime Chahuán-Jiménez

    (Escuela de Auditoría, Centro de Investigación en Negocios y Gestión Empresarial, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso 2340031, Chile)

  • Víctor Leiva

    (Escuela de Ingeniería Industrial, Facultad de Ingeniería, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso 2362807, Chile)

Abstract

COVID-19 infections have plagued the world and led to deaths with a heavy pneumonia manifestation. The main objective of this investigation is to evaluate the performance of certain economies during the crisis derived from the COVID-19 pandemic. The gross domestic product (GDP) and global health security index (GHSI) of the countries belonging–or not–to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are considered. In this paper, statistical models are formulated to study this performance. The models’ specifications include, as the response variable, the GDP variation/growth percentage in 2020, and as the covariates: the COVID-19 disease rate from its start in March 2020 until 31 December 2020; the GHSI of 2019; the countries’ risk by default spreads from July 2019 to May 2020; belongingness or not to the OECD; and the GDP per capita in 2020. We test the heteroscedasticity phenomenon present in the modeling. The variable “COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants” is statistically significant, showing its impact on each country’s economy through the GDP variation. Therefore, we report that COVID-19 cases affect domestic economies, but that OECD membership and other risk factors are also relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanns de la Fuente-Mella & Rolando Rubilar & Karime Chahuán-Jiménez & Víctor Leiva, 2021. "Modeling COVID-19 Cases Statistically and Evaluating Their Effect on the Economy of Countries," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:13:p:1558-:d:587453
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    2. Tahir Abbas, 2025. "Impact of Government Health Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Selected Countries," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(3), pages 196-208, March.

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