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FX markets’ reactions to COVID-19: Are they different?

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  • Walter Bazán-Palomino
  • Diego Winkelried

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on FX markets. We find important differences between COVID-19 and previous high-risk episodes: the Global Financial Crisis, the Swiss National Bank's removal of the Swiss franc/euro floor, and Brexit. Contrary to these episodes, the USD did not show any safe haven characteristics during the pandemic. Furthermore, the estimated volatility and non-parametric value-at-risk of three currency portfolios indicate that COVID-19 was not as risky as previous stressful events. We provide evidence that investors could minimize COVID-19 risk by investing in the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen, and by reducing their exposure to European currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Bazán-Palomino & Diego Winkelried, 2021. "FX markets’ reactions to COVID-19: Are they different?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 167, pages 50-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2021-q3-167-14
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency portfolios; Volatility; Diversification; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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