Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010.
"Large Bayesian vector auto regressions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers ECARES 2008_033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.
- Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005.
"Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
- GalÃ, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommas, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2013.
"Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, March.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," MPRA Paper 21124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2010. "VAR Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Paper series 51_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Apr 2011.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1986.
"Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
- Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Wickens, 2014.
"How Useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?,"
Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 171-193, February.
- Wickens, Michael R., 2012. "How Useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Antonello D’ Agostino & Domenico Giannone, 2012.
"Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large‐Panel Factor Models,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 306-326, April.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models," Research Technical Papers 14/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Giannone, Domenico & D’Agostino, Antonello, 2007. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "Comparing alternative predictors based on large-panel factor models," Working Paper Series 680, European Central Bank.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg (ed.), 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026252242x, December.
- Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010.
"Large Bayesian vector auto regressions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
- Marta Bańbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92, January.
- Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009.
"DSGE Models and Central Banks,"
Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
- Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "DSGE models and central banks," BIS Working Papers 258, Bank for International Settlements.
- Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2008. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2013.
"Large time-varying parameter VARs,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 185-198.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," MPRA Paper 38591, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Working Paper series 11_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," Working Papers 2012_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-14, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Francis X. Diebold, 1998.
"The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
- Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 6290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "The past, present, and future of macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers 97-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Mr. Matteo Ciccarelli & Mr. Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Bayesian Vars: A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System," IMF Working Papers 2003/102, International Monetary Fund.
- Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
- Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Rossini, Luca, 2019.
"Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 97-115.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models," Papers 1608.02740, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
- Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015.
"Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Open Access publications 10197/7588, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Bekiros, Stelios D. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2014.
"Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 298-323.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models," Open Access publications 10197/7322, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR)," Working Papers 2016:20, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? : The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_013 is not listed on IDEAS
- Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2014.
"Using large data sets to forecast sectoral employment,"
Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(2), pages 229-264, June.
- Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Using Large Data Sets to Forecast Sectoral Employment," Working Papers 201101, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Using Large Data Sets to Forecast Sectoral Employment," Working papers 2011-02, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2012.
- Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Using Large Data Sets to Forecast Sectoral Employment," Working Papers 1106, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2016.
"Large Bayesian VARMAs,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 374-390.
- Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-06, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2015. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series 15-36, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Papers 1409, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series 40_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010.
"Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics,"
Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper series 47_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 20125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016.
"Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 110-120.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-73, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," MPRA Paper 64143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2015_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Karlsson, Sune, 2013.
"Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897,
Elsevier.
- Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012.
"Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?,"
Working Papers
1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 201230, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
- Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Jiang, Bin & Vahid, Farshid, 2019.
"Macroeconomic forecasting for Australia using a large number of predictors,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 616-633.
- Bin Jiang & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Anastasios Panagiotelis & Farshid Vahid, 2017. "Macroeconomic forecasting for Australia using a large number of predictors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-73, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2011. "Forecasting Performance Of An Estimated Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 50-67, March.
- Демешев Борис Борисович & Малаховская Оксана Анатольевна, 2016. "Макроэкономическое Прогнозирование С Помощью Bvar Литтермана," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 20(4), pages 691-710.
- David Alan Peel & Pantelis Promponas, 2016. "Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K," Working Papers 144439514, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
- Anders Warne & Günter Coenen & Kai Christoffel, 2017.
"Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State‐Space Models with Applications to DSGE, DSGE‐VAR, and VAR Models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 103-119, January.
- Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2014. "Marginalized predictive likelihood comparisons of linear Gaussian state-space models with applications to DSGE, DSGEVAR, and VAR models," CFS Working Paper Series 478, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
More about this item
Keywords
forecasting; macroeconomic modeling; bayesian VAR; litterman prior; scenario analysis; IFRS 9;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scn:pnoeeq:191a7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ганна Харламова (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://socionet.ru/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.