IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach

Listed author(s):
  • D. Tutberidze

    (Institute of Economics and Business at Ilia State University (ISU), Tbilisi, Georgia)

  • D. Japaridze
Registered author(s):

    There are many arguments that can be advanced to support the forecasting activities of business entities. The underlying argument in favor of forecasting is that managerial decisions are significantly dependent on proper evaluation of future trends as market conditions are constantly changing and require a detailed analysis of future dynamics. The article discusses the importance of using reasonable macro-econometric tool by suggesting the idea of conditional forecasting through a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. Under this framework, a macroeconomic model for Georgian economy is constructed with the few variables believed to be shaping business environment. Based on the model, forecasts of macroeconomic variables are produced, and three types of scenarios are analyzed – a baseline and two alternative ones. The results of the study provide confirmatory evidence that suggested methodology is adequately addressing the research phenomenon and can be used widely by business entities in responding their strategic and operational planning challenges. Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://spz.socionet.ru/~visnyk/files/191_42-49.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Socionet & Киевский национальный университет имени Тараса Шевченко in its journal Вестник Киевского национального университета имени Тараса Шевченко. Экономика.

    Volume (Year): 2(191) (2017)
    Issue (Month): 191 ()
    Pages: 42-49

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:scn:pnoeeq:191a7
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://socionet.ru/
    Email:

    Phone: +38 044 259-71-82
    Web page: http://www.econom.univ.kiev.ua
    Email:

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scn:pnoeeq:191a7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ганна Харламова)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.