IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk and Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model


  • Mikhail Golosov

    (Princeton University)

  • David Evans

    (University of Oregon)

  • anmol bhandari

    (university of minnesota)


Asset pricing data indicates that shocks to the nominal interest rates are primarily reflected in changes in risk premium. In this paper we build a New Keynesian model in which the behavior of interest rates and risk premium is consistent with this observation. We show that monetary shocks affect the real and nominal variables through the novel channel -- when nominal price adjustment is costly, firms need to balance needs to maximize current period profit and minimize future cost of price adjustments. Increase in risk, which follows a decrease in interest rates, increases firm's weight of future costs in inflationary environments, and leads to an increase in inflation, nominal and real marginal costs and output. Effectiveness of monetary policy varies with the state of the economy and generally is low in low inflationary environments. We also show that a number of well-known predictions of New Keynesian models reverses when interest rate shocks affect risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Golosov & David Evans & anmol bhandari, 2017. "Risk and Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model," 2017 Meeting Papers 1359, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:1359

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
    3. Anastasios G Karantounias, 2018. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Recursive Preferences," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 2283-2317.
    4. Jordi GalĂ­, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework and Its Applications Second edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10495, October.
    5. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed017:1359. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.