Empirical asset pricing with nonlinear risk premia
In this paper we introduce a simple continuous-time asset pricing framework, based on general multi-dimensional diffusion processes, that combines semi-analytic pricing with a nonlinear specification for the market price of risk. Our framework guarantees existence of weak solutions of the nonlinear SDEs under the physical measure, thus allowing to work with nonlinear models for the real world dynamics not considered in the literature so far. It emerges that the additional flexibility in the time series modelling is econometrically relevant: a nonlinear stochastic volatility diffusion model for the joint time series of the S&P 100 and the VXO implied volatility index data shows superior forecasting power over the standard specifications for implied and realized variance forecasting.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38.
- H. Bertholon & A. Monfort & F. Pegoraro, 2008.
"Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics,
Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(4), pages 407-458, Fall.
- Federico M. Bandi & Roberto Reno, 2009. "Nonparametric Stochastic Volatility," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-035, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Jones, Christopher S., 2003. "The dynamics of stochastic volatility: evidence from underlying and options markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 181-224.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chernov, Mikhail, 2007. "On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 411-426, October.
- Cheridito, Patrick & Filipovic, Damir & Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-170, January.
- Alexandros Beskos & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Paul Fearnhead, 2006. "Exact and computationally efficient likelihood-based estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 333-382.
- Ai[diaeresis]t-Sahalia, Yacine & Kimmel, Robert, 2007. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 413-452, February.
- Michael Sørensen & Julie Lyng Forman, 2007.
"The Pearson diffusions: A class of statistically tractable diffusion processes,"
CREATES Research Papers
2007-28, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Julie Lyng Forman & Michael Sørensen, 2008. "The Pearson Diffusions: A Class of Statistically Tractable Diffusion Processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 35(3), pages 438-465.
- Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0911.0928. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.