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Financial Development and the Choice of Trade Partners

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  • Man Lung Chan
  • Kalina Manova

Abstract

What determines the choice of countries' trade partners? We show theoretically and empirically that financial market imperfections affect the number and identity of exporters' destinations. Bigger economies with lower trade costs are more attractive markets because they offer higher export profits. This generates a pecking order of destinations such that firms serve all countries above a cut-off level of market potential. Credit constraints, however, raise this cut-off above the first best. Financially advanced nations thus have more trade partners and go further down the pecking order, especially in sectors that rely heavily on the financial system. Our results provide new, systematic evidence that countries follow a hierarchy of export destinations, that market size and trade costs determine this hierarchy, and that financial frictions interact importantly with it. This has policy implications for the effects of cross-border linkages that depend on the number and identity of countries' trade partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Man Lung Chan & Kalina Manova, 2013. "Financial Development and the Choice of Trade Partners," NBER Working Papers 18867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18867
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    Cited by:

    1. Clement Anne, 2016. "Are Commodity Price Booms an Opportunity to Diversify? Evidence from Resource-dependent Countries," Working Papers halshs-01381143, HAL.
    2. Clement ANNE, 2016. "Are Commodity Price Booms an Opportunity to Diversify? Evidence from Resource-dependent Countries," Working Papers 201615, CERDI.
    3. K De Bruyne & Glenn Magerman & Jan Van Hove, 2019. "Pecking Order and Core-Periphery in International Trade," Working Papers ECARES 2019-06, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. repec:eee:streco:v:47:y:2018:i:c:p:46-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:rjr:romjef:v::y:2017:i:1:p:60-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Cai, Ning & Feng, Jinlu & Liu, Yong & Ru, Hong & Yang, Endong, 2019. "Government credit and trade war," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Crinò, Rosario & Ogliari, Laura, 2015. "Financial Frictions, Product Quality, and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 10555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. repec:gam:jjrfmx:v:12:y:2019:i:2:p:60-:d:221182 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Crinò, Rosario & Ogliari, Laura, 2017. "Financial imperfections, product quality, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 63-84.
    10. C. Fritz Foley & Kalina Manova, 2015. "International Trade, Multinational Activity, and Corporate Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 119-146, August.
    11. Antonio Ciccone & Elias Papaioannou, 2016. "Estimating Cross-Industry Cross-Country Interaction Models Using Benchmark Industry Characteristics," NBER Working Papers 22368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Mazzei, Matthew J. & Flynn, C. Brian & Haynie, Jeffrey J., 2016. "Moving beyond initial success: Promoting innovation in small businesses through high-performance work practices," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 51-60.
    13. Jackie M.L. Chan, 2015. "Trade Intermediation, Financial Frictions, and the Gains from Trade," Discussion Papers 15-009, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    14. Gates, Emily F., 2016. "Making sense of the emerging conversation in evaluation about systems thinking and complexity science," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 62-73.
    15. Odhiambo, Nicholas M & Nyasha, Sheilla, 2019. "Financial development and economic growth in Uganda: A multivariate causal linkage," Working Papers 25711, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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