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Une analyse temps-fréquences des cycles financiers

  • Christophe Boucher

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, A.A.Advisors-QCG - ABN AMRO)

  • Bertrand Maillet

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, A.A.Advisors-QCG - ABN AMRO, EIF - Europlace Institute of Finance)

This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate price-earning ratio at different time-scales, for predicting stock returns and exploring the channels through which returns are forecasted. Using U.S. quartely data, we find that cycles in the price-earning ratio are strong and better predictors of future returns than the aggregate price-earning ratio and several other popular forecasting variables. The proposed method, based on a wavelet multi-scaling analysis, explicitly accounts for the variations at different time scales in the expected cash-flow growth and expected returns.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00565229.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Publication status: Published in Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2011.03 - ISSN : 1955-611X. 2011
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00565229
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00565229
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  1. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Jessica A. Wachter, 2008. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1653-1687, July.
  2. Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John Y. Campbell, 2002. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1974, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Campbell, John, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Scholarly Articles 3294737, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  6. Steven A. Sharpe, 2001. "Reexamining stock valuation and inflation: the implications of analysts' earnings forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
  8. Viviana Fernandez, 2006. "The International CAPM and a Wavelet-Based Decomposition of Value at Risk," NBER Working Papers 12233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," 2006 Meeting Papers 29, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Yogo, Motohiro, 2008. "Measuring business cycles: A wavelet analysis of economic time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 208-212, August.
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