IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v52y2023ics1544612322007024.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investor attention on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and stock market volatility: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Haonan
  • Lu, Xinjie

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought ripple effects to the global economy. This paper mainly investigates whether investor attention to the Russia-Ukraine conflict can affect the Chinese stock market volatility. Empirical results show investor attention to the Russia-Ukraine conflict contains more valuable information to predict Chinese stock market volatility than some popular predictors such as leverage, jump, geopolitical risk. Importantly, we find the model containing ATT_AU information and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method performs best among the models, especially during long-term horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Haonan & Lu, Xinjie, 2023. "Investor attention on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and stock market volatility: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:52:y:2023:i:c:s1544612322007024
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103526
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322007024
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103526?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Chen, Shuning & Zhang, Wei & Feng, Xu & Xiong, Xiong, 2020. "Asymmetry of retail investors’ attention and asymmetric volatility: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    3. Ma, Feng & Wahab, M.I.M. & Huang, Dengshi & Xu, Weiju, 2017. "Forecasting the realized volatility of the oil futures market: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 136-145.
    4. Arfaoui, Nadia & Naoui, Kamel, 2022. "Terrorism, investor sentiment, and stock market reaction: Evidence from the British and the French markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    5. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    6. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    7. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    8. Martina Halouskov'a & Daniel Stav{s}ek & Mat'uv{s} Horv'ath, 2022. "The role of investor attention in global asset price variation during the invasion of Ukraine," Papers 2205.05985, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    10. Liang, Chao & Li, Yan & Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu, 2021. "Global equity market volatilities forecasting: A comparison of leverage effects, jumps, and overnight information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Umar, Zaghum & Polat, Onur & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the connectedness of financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    12. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
    13. Long, Wen & Zhao, Manyi & Tang, Yeran, 2021. "Can the Chinese volatility index reflect investor sentiment?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Mengxi & Liao, Cunfei & Wang, Yudong, 2023. "Climate risk exposure and the cross-section of Chinese stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    2. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Blockchain: A carbon-neutral facilitator or an environmental destroyer?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 604-615.
    3. Zhang, Jiaming & Guo, Songlin & Dou, Bin & Xie, Bingyuan, 2023. "Evidence of the internationalization of China's crude oil futures: Asymmetric linkages to global financial risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    4. Huang, Xiaozhou & Wang, Yubao & Song, Juan, 2023. "The Chinese oil futures volatility: Evidence from high-low estimator information," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Robertas Damaševičius & Ligita Zailskaitė-Jakštė, 2023. "The Impact of a National Crisis on Research Collaborations: A Scientometric Analysis of Ukrainian Authors 2019–2022," Publications, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jianqiong & Dong, Dayong, 2022. "Singlehanded or joint race? Stock market volatility prediction," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 734-754.
    2. Song, Ziyu & Gong, Xiaomin & Zhang, Cheng & Yu, Changrui, 2023. "Investor sentiment based on scaled PCA method: A powerful predictor of realized volatility in the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 528-545.
    3. Chen, Wang & Lu, Xinjie & Wang, Jiqian, 2022. "Modeling and managing stock market volatility using MRS-MIDAS model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 625-635.
    4. Wang, Ping & Han, Wei & Huang, Chengcheng & Duong, Duy, 2022. "Forecasting realised volatility from search volume and overnight sentiment: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Danyan Wen & Mengxi He & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang, 2022. "Forecasting realized volatility of Chinese stock market: A simple but efficient truncated approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 230-251, March.
    6. Zhang, Yaojie & Lei, Likun & Wei, Yu, 2020. "Forecasting the Chinese stock market volatility with international market volatilities: The role of regime switching," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Shen, Lihua & Lu, Xinjie & Luu Duc Huynh, Toan & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Air quality index and the Chinese stock market volatility: Evidence from both market and sector indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 224-239.
    8. Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Zeng, Zhi-Jian & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhang, Ting, 2023. "Forecasting global stock market volatilities in an uncertain world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Zhao, Ling, 2023. "Global economic policy uncertainty and oil futures volatility prediction," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Yi, Yongsheng & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Out-of-sample prediction of Bitcoin realized volatility: Do other cryptocurrencies help?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Ding, Hui & Huang, Yisu & Wang, Jiqian, 2023. "Have the predictability of oil changed during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Gong, Xue & Zhang, Weiguo & Wang, Junbo & Wang, Chao, 2022. "Investor sentiment and stock volatility: New evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Zhang, Lixia & Luo, Qin & Guo, Xiaozhu & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Medium-term and long-term volatility forecasts for EUA futures with country-specific economic policy uncertainty indices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Ye, Wuyi & Xia, Wenjing & Wu, Bin & Chen, Pengzhan, 2022. "Using implied volatility jumps for realized volatility forecasting: Evidence from the Chinese market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Lu, Fei & Ma, Feng & Li, Pan & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Natural gas volatility predictability in a data-rich world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Liang, Chao & Tang, Linchun & Li, Yan & Wei, Yu, 2020. "Which sentiment index is more informative to forecast stock market volatility? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Jiqian Wang & Rangan Gupta & Oğuzhan Çepni & Feng Ma, 2023. "Forecasting international REITs volatility: the role of oil-price uncertainty," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(14), pages 1579-1597, September.
    19. Jayawardena, Nirodha I. & Todorova, Neda & Li, Bin & Su, Jen-Je, 2016. "Forecasting stock volatility using after-hour information: Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 592-608.
    20. Feng Ma & Chao Liang & Yuanhui Ma & M.I.M. Wahab, 2020. "Cryptocurrency volatility forecasting: A Markov regime‐switching MIDAS approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1277-1290, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:52:y:2023:i:c:s1544612322007024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.