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UK Foreign Direct Investment in Uncertain Economic Times

Author

Listed:
  • Costas Milas

    (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia)

  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    (University of Liverpool)

  • Georgios Papapanagiotou

    (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia)

Abstract

This paper uses time-varying Bayesian models to assess the impact of the shifting, and progressively more volatile (especially since the EU Referendum vote in 2016) macroeconomic landscape on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to the UK. FDI inflows are depressed in response to higher UK-specific economic and geopolitical uncertainty. A stronger real exchange rate and a higher interest rate also have a negative effect. It benefits from lower UK corporate tax rates and higher US uncertainty, the latter creating investment opportunities in the UK. Rising economic policy uncertainty since the EU Referendum, has led to FDI losses of up to 0.5% of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Georgios Papapanagiotou, 2024. "UK Foreign Direct Investment in Uncertain Economic Times," Discussion Paper Series 2024_04, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2024_04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2026. "Impact of Brexit on the Utilization of Regional Trade Agreements: Evidence from Japan’s Imports," IDE Discussion Papers 987, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Müller, Henrik & Blagov, Boris & Schmidt, Torsten & Rieger, Jonas & Jentsch, Carsten, 2025. "The macroeconomic impact of asymmetric uncertainty shocks," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    3. Gulsah Kulali, 2026. "Foreign direct investment inflows to emerging market economies: the dynamic between global risk and country-specific risks," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1-40, May.
    4. Ryan, Michael & Tanaka, Ayumu, 2024. "No-Exit Brexit: Japanese Affiliate Exit and Divestment in Post-Brexit UK," SocArXiv yx7as, Center for Open Science.
    5. Tran Thi Mai Thanh & To Ngoc Lan, 2025. "Spillover Effects of Foreign Policy Uncertainty and their Impact on FDI Inflows in Asia–Pacific: A Panel Quantile Approach," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 13(4), pages 293-312.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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