IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v71y2025ics1544612324014120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The spillover effects of the "Binance Incident" on financial markets: A study based on machine learning approach

Author

Listed:
  • Feng, Lingbing
  • Qi, Jiajun
  • Liu, Ye
  • Wang, Wei

Abstract

This paper analyzes the spillover effects of the "Binance Incident" in the cryptocurrency market on financial markets. We integrate event study with Lasso to predict the normal returns during the event window, which outperforms traditional market models. Based on the new approach, we find positive effects on precious metal markets due to their safe-haven nature. In contrast, energy markets exhibit negative effects due to reduced investor confidence and weaker safe-haven attributes, and fiat currencies show negligible reactions. Finally, we document that the overall impact of the "Binance Incident" on financial markets is negative.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Lingbing & Qi, Jiajun & Liu, Ye & Wang, Wei, 2025. "The spillover effects of the "Binance Incident" on financial markets: A study based on machine learning approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:71:y:2025:i:c:s1544612324014120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106383
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324014120
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106383?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Liu, Huiling & Ye, Jing, 2023. "Precious metal as a safe haven for global ESG stocks: Portfolio implications for socially responsible investing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Naveed, Muhammad & Ali, Shoaib & Gubareva, Mariya & Omri, Anis, 2024. "When giants fall: Tracing the ripple effects of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse on global financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    3. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    4. Griffith, Todd & Clancey-Shang, Danjue, 2023. "Cryptocurrency regulation and market quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Yousaf, Imran & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Reputational contagion and the fall of FTX: Examining the response of tokens to the delegitimization of FTT," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Chen, Lin & Han, Qian & Qiao, Zhilin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2020. "Correlation analysis and systemic risk measurement of regional, financial and global stock indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    7. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg), 2024. "Contagion effects of permissionless, worthless cryptocurrency tokens: Evidence from the collapse of FTX," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. He, Mengxi & Shen, Lihua & Zhang, Yaojie & Zhang, Yi, 2023. "Predicting cryptocurrency returns for real-world investments: A daily updated and accessible predictor," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    9. Brian M. Lucey & Sile Li, 2015. "What precious metals act as safe havens, and when? Some US evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 35-45, January.
    10. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Hassan, M.Kabir & Kumari, Vineeta & Hasan, Rashedul, 2023. "Repercussions of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse on global stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    11. Timotheos Angelidis & Nikolaos Tessaromatis, 2017. "Global Equity Country Allocation: An Application of Factor Investing," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(4), pages 55-73, October.
    12. Umar, Muhammad & Riaz, Yasir & Yousaf, Imran, 2022. "Impact of Russian-Ukraine war on clean energy, conventional energy, and metal markets: Evidence from event study approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Ali, Shoaib & Naveed, Muhammad & Gubareva, Mariya & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2024. "Reputational contagion from the Silicon Valley Bank debacle," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2020. "How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Syuhada, Khreshna & Suprijanto, Djoko & Hakim, Arief, 2022. "Comparing gold’s and Bitcoin’s safe-haven roles against energy commodities during the COVID-19 outbreak: A vine copula approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    16. Yousaf, Imran & Riaz, Yasir & Goodell, John W, 2023. "What do responses of financial markets to the collapse of FTX say about investor interest in cryptocurrencies? Event-study evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naveed, Muhammad & Ali, Shoaib & Gubareva, Mariya & Omri, Anis, 2024. "When giants fall: Tracing the ripple effects of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse on global financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    2. De Blasis, Riccardo & Galati, Luca & Grassi, Rosanna & Rizzini, Giorgio, 2024. "Information flow in the FTX bankruptcy: A network approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 655(C).
    3. Yousaf, Imran & Riaz, Yasir & Goodell, John W., 2023. "The impact of the SVB collapse on global financial markets: Substantial but narrow," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    4. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumar, Satish & Kumari, Vineeta & Alahdal, Waleed M., 2024. "Quaking the stock market: Event study evidence on the Turkey-Syria earthquake," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 182-194.
    5. Azmi, Wajahat & Anwer, Zaheer & Azmi, Shujaat Naeem & Nobanee, Haitham, 2023. "How did major global asset classes respond to Silicon Valley Bank failure?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Aharon, David Y. & Ali, Shoaib & Naved, Muhammad, 2023. "Too big to fail: The aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse and its impact on financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Riccardo De Blasis & Luca Galati & Rosanna Grassi & Giorgio Rizzini, 2024. "Information Flow in the FTX Bankruptcy: A Network Approach," Papers 2407.12683, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    8. Silvia-Andreea Peliu, 2024. "Exploring the impact of ESG factors on corporate risk: empirical evidence for New York Stock Exchange listed companies," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, December.
    9. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Predictability of crypto returns: The impact of trading behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    10. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Anwar, Rija, 2024. "Precious metals and currency markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s inflationary periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    11. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2024. "Effects of draft Climate-related Financial Risks Disclosure Framework on stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Rajabi, Mona Mashhadi & Linnenluecke, Martina & Smith, Tom, 2025. "Information linkages across countries around net zero announcements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Assaf, Rima & Chaibi, Anis & Makram, Beljid, 2024. "The nexus between mineral, renewable commodities, and regional stock sectors during health and military crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    14. Yadav, Miklesh Prasad & Rao, Amar & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Tabassum, Sabia & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "The domino effect: Analyzing the impact of Silicon Valley Bank's fall on top equity indices around the world," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    15. Zhao, Yuan & Gong, Xue & Zhang, Weiguo & Xu, Weijun, 2024. "Forecasting carbon futures returns using feature selection and Markov chain with sample distribution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    16. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta & Palma, Alessia & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Are markets in happier countries less affected by tragic events? Evidence from market reaction to the Israel–Hamas conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    17. Galati, Luca & Webb, Alexander & Webb, Robert I., 2024. "Financial contagion in cryptocurrency exchanges: Evidence from the FTT collapse," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    18. Karmakar, Sayar & Gupta, Rangan & Cepni, Oguzhan & Rognone, Lavinia, 2023. "Climate risks and predictability of the trading volume of gold: Evidence from an INGARCH model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    19. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Al-ahdal, Waleed M. & Rusere, Warren & Ali, Azwadi & Nor, Safwan Mohd, 2024. "Impact of firm characteristics and country-level governance on global energy stocks during crises," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PA).
    20. Troster, Victor & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2019. "A quantile regression analysis of flights-to-safety with implied volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 482-495.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:71:y:2025:i:c:s1544612324014120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.