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‘Crypto president’: Do narrative political signals drive cryptocurrency returns?

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  • Ben Jabeur, Sami
  • Dhifaoui, Zouhaier
  • Bakkar, Yassine
  • Ballouk, Houssein

Abstract

This study provides evidence on the role of the quality of political signals in predicting six major cryptocurrency asset classes. Including communications from the U.S. presidential election in 2024, we find that political news affects cryptocurrency returns in the short-term (from ∼2 to ∼4 months). For most cryptoassets, text sentiment measures demonstrate superior predictive performance compared to historical cryptocurrency time series in out-of-sample forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Jabeur, Sami & Dhifaoui, Zouhaier & Bakkar, Yassine & Ballouk, Houssein, 2025. "‘Crypto president’: Do narrative political signals drive cryptocurrency returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:78:y:2025:i:c:s154461232500457x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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