IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2022q3a6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Reliability of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Models: A Forecasting Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Ca' Zorzi

    (European Central Bank)

  • Adam Cap

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Andrej Mijakovic

    (European University Institute)

  • Michal Rubaszek

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the predictive power of the three most popular equilibrium exchange rate concepts: purchasing power parity (PPP), behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER), and the macroeconomic balance (MB) approach. We show that there is a trade-off between storytelling and forecast accuracy. The PPP model offers little economic insight, but has good predictive power. The BEER framework, which links exchange rates to fundamentals, does not deliver forecasts of better quality than PPP. The MB approach has the richest economic interpretation, but performs poorly in forecasting terms. Sensitivity analysis confirms that changing the composition of fundamentals in the BEER model or modifying key underlying assumptions in the MB model does not generally enhance their predictive power.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Ca' Zorzi & Adam Cap & Andrej Mijakovic & Michal Rubaszek, 2022. "The Reliability of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Models: A Forecasting Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 229-280, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2022:q:3:a:6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb22q3a6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb22q3a6.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caputo, Rodrigo, 2015. "Persistent real misalignments and the role of the exchange rate regime," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 112-116.
    2. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-149, February.
    3. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
    4. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.
    5. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
    6. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Saang Joon Baak, 2015. "Is the Yen Undervalued?," Discussion papers 1503, ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
    3. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
    4. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    5. Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2005. "La tasa de cambio real en Colombia. ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 23(49), pages 134-191, December.
    6. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2005. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(4), pages 291-316.
    7. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Revil & Mignon, Valerie, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center.
    8. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2020. "Redistributive innovation policy, inequality, and efficiency," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 532-554, June.
    9. Katerina Smidkova & Ales Bulir, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth?: What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us About Acceding Economies," Macroeconomics 0408002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Baak, SaangJoon, 2012. "Measuring misalignments in the Korean exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 227-234.
    11. Marcos Rocha & Fernando Barbi, 2011. "Determinantes doDesalinhamento Cambial: Uma análise comcointegração em painel," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 112, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou, 2016. "Currency Misalignments in emerging and developing countries: reassessing the role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Post-Print hal-01549902, HAL.
    13. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Rubaszek, Michał, 2023. "How many fundamentals should we include in the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    14. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    15. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria," MPRA Paper 10376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Gilles Dufrenot & Laurent Mathieu & Valerie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2006. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 203-229.
    17. Balazs Egert & Carol Leonard, 2008. "Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is it real?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 147-165, April.
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jiří Škop & Jan Vejmělek, 2009. "Od parity kupní síly k natrexu - případ české koruny [From PPP to Natrex - the Case of Czech Crown]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(3), pages 323-343.
    20. Nelson Mark, 1998. "Fundamentals of the Real Dollar-Pound Rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 98-14, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    21. Ramos-Herrera María del Carmen, 2022. "How Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignments Influence on Economic Growth? Evidence for European Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 199-211, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2022:q:3:a:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.