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International stock return predictability: on the role of the United States in bad and good times

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  • Boriss Siliverstovs

Abstract

In this article, we document the asymmetric role that the US stock market plays in the international predictability of excess stock returns during recession and expansion periods. Most of the positive evidence accrues during the periods of recessions in the United States. During the expansions, there is only a limited evidence supporting the importance of lagged US returns in predictability of stock returns in 10 industrialized countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Boriss Siliverstovs, 2017. "International stock return predictability: on the role of the United States in bad and good times," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(11), pages 771-773, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:11:p:771-773
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1226485
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    Cited by:

    1. Takuro Hidaka & Yuta Saito & Jun Sakamoto, 2021. "Historical Relationships and International Market Return Predictability: The Role of the UK in the Former British Colonies, Protectorates and Mandates," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 21-08-Rev., Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, revised Oct 2023.
    2. Labidi, Chiaz & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Hedström, Axel & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bekiros, Stelios, 2018. "Quantile dependence between developed and emerging stock markets aftermath of the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 179-211.
    3. Xiaozhen Jing & Dezhong Xu & Bin Li & Tarlok Singh, 2024. "Does the U.S. extreme indicator matter in stock markets? International evidence," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Georges Prat & David Le Bris, 2019. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon: what do the French secular data say ?," Working Papers hal-04141877, HAL.
    5. Georges Prat & David Le Bris, 2019. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon: what do the French secular data say ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-8, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Jing Liu & Maria Grith & Xiaowen Dong & Mihai Cucuringu, 2026. "A Bipartite Graph Approach to U.S.-China Cross-Market Return Forecasting," Papers 2603.10559, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    7. Boriss Siliverstovs & Daniel S. Wochner, 2021. "State‐dependent evaluation of predictive ability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 547-574, April.
    8. Yi-Chieh Wen & Bin Li, 2020. "Lagged country returns and international stock return predictability during business cycle recession periods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(46), pages 5005-5019, October.
    9. Jonathan Iworiso & Spyridon Vrontos, 2020. "On the directional predictability of equity premium using machine learning techniques," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 449-469, April.
    10. Prat, Georges & Le Bris, David, 2024. "Term structure of equity risk premia in rough terrain: 150 years of the French stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).

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