IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v78y2025ics1544612325003575.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting volatility in commodity markets with climate risk

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Yangli
  • Peng, Pei
  • Zhou, Ling
  • Tang, Yusui

Abstract

This study introduces a climate change concern index to quantify climate risk and assess its impact on commodity futures volatility, addressing a key gap in the literature. Compared to established risk measures, the index significantly improves volatility forecasts. Models using the index also outperform traditional ones in economic value, offering insights for investors and policymakers in managing climate-related financial risks. These findings underscore the importance of climate risk in financial markets, enhancing forecasts and guiding economic decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Yangli & Peng, Pei & Zhou, Ling & Tang, Yusui, 2025. "Forecasting volatility in commodity markets with climate risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:78:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325003575
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107094
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325003575
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.107094?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:78:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325003575. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.