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Two out-of-sample forecasting models of the equity premium

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Abstract

I derive two valid forecasting models of the equity premium in monthly frequency, based on little more than no-arbitrage: A “predictability timing” version of partial least squares, given that predictability is theoretically timevarying; and a least squares model with realized market premiums in monthly frequency as the regressor, since realized returns are theoretically correlated to risk and to the price of risk. This evidence is consistent with the instability inherent to monthly equity premium forecasts based on standard partial least squares and disaggregated book-to-markets as regressors, and with the fact that taking one extra lag of book-to-markets in predictive return regressions improves the estimates.

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  • de Oliveira Souza, Thiago, 2020. "Two out-of-sample forecasting models of the equity premium," Discussion Papers on Economics 11/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2020_011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
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    3. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    4. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    5. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
    6. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    7. de Oliveira Souza, Thiago, 2019. "Predictability concentrates in bad times. And so does disagreement," Discussion Papers on Economics 8/2019, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    8. de Oliveira Souza, Thiago, 2019. "A critique of momentum anomalies," Discussion Papers on Economics 5/2019, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    9. Julien Cujean & Michael Hasler, 2017. "Why Does Return Predictability Concentrate in Bad Times?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2717-2758, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Predictability; out-of-sample; equity premium; disaggregated book-to-markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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