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David F. Hendry

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. David Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Economics Series Working Papers 529, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Economic Logician Displaying Precisely No Logic
      by James Reade in Christianity and Econometrics on 2011-03-25 01:58:00
    2. Modelling without theory
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-03-23 18:59:00
  2. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2010. "On the Mathematical Basis of Inter-temporal Optimization," Economics Series Working Papers 497, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Elsewhere
      by Robert Vienneau in Thoughts on Economics on 2010-09-18 17:05:00
  3. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Robust Approaches to Forecasting," Economics Series Working Papers 697, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. In all probability, economic forecasts are probably wrong
      by David F Hendry, Director, Economic Modelling, The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School at University of Oxford in The Conversation on 2014-07-18 17:06:35
  4. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Money growth & inflation
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-03-26 19:31:34
  5. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-494, Sept.-Oct.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Forecasting GDP in the presence of breaks: when is the past is a good guide to the future?
      by bankunderground in Bank Underground on 2015-08-20 11:30:00
    2. Forecasting GDP in the presence of breaks: when is the past a good guide to the future?
      by Guest Author in The Big Picture on 2015-09-01 14:00:11
  6. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Some Fallacies in Econometric Modelling of Climate Change," Economics Series Working Papers 643, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Papers I've Been Reading
      by Dave Giles in Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog on 2013-03-16 03:10:00
  7. Author Profile
    1. Top Forecasting Institutions and Researchers According to IDEAS!
      by Clive Jones in Business Forecasting on 2013-06-28 01:43:46

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-494, Sept.-Oct.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Intercept corrections and structural change (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1996) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Forecasting in Cointegration Systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 127-146, April-Jun.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Forecasting in cointegrated systems (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1995) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. David F. Hendry, 2001. "Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 255-275.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991 (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2001) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Can the UK achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050?," Economics Series Working Papers 953 JEL classification: C, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

  2. David F. Hendry, 2020. "First in, First out: Econometric Modelling of UK Annual CO_2 Emissions, 1860–2017," Economics Papers 2020-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Fakhri Hasanov & Fred Joutz & Muhammad Javid, 2021. "Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Discussion Papers ks--2021-dp09, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    2. Gransaull, Gareth & Rhodes, Ekaterina & Fairbrother, Malcolm, 2023. "Institutions for effective climate policymaking: Lessons from the case of the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

  3. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2020. "Short-term forecasting of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 2020-04-27," Economics Papers 2020-W06, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Bozkir, Cem D.C. & Ozmemis, Cagri & Kurbanzade, Ali Kaan & Balcik, Burcu & Gunes, Evrim D. & Tuglular, Serhan, 2023. "Capacity planning for effective cohorting of hemodialysis patients during the coronavirus pandemic: A case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 276-291.
    2. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Selecting a Model for Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, June.
    3. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Petropoulos, Fotios & Makridakis, Spyros & Stylianou, Neophytos, 2022. "COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time series model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 439-452.
    7. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Principles from Experience with Forecasting Competitions," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-28, February.

  4. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Davide Golinelli, 2022. "Revisiting the Porter Hypothesis: A Nonparametric Analysis on the impact of Pollution Abatement Technologies on firms' performances," SEEDS Working Papers 0622, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Jul 2022.

  5. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.

    Cited by:

    1. Janczura, Joanna & Wójcik, Edyta, 2022. "Dynamic short-term risk management strategies for the choice of electricity market based on probabilistic forecasts of profit and risk measures. The German and the Polish market case study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Joanna Janczura & Andrzej Puć, 2023. "ARX-GARCH Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Diversification of Trade in Electricity Markets—Variance Stabilizing Transformation and Financial Risk-Minimizing Portfolio Allocation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, January.
    3. Heymann, Fabian & Milojevic, Tatjana & Covatariu, Andrei & Verma, Piyush, 2023. "Digitalization in decarbonizing electricity systems – Phenomena, regional aspects, stakeholders, use cases, challenges and policy options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    4. Wesley Marcos Almeida & Claudimar Pereira Veiga, 2023. "Does demand forecasting matter to retailing?," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(2), pages 219-232, June.
    5. Elalem, Yara Kayyali & Maier, Sebastian & Seifert, Ralf W., 2023. "A machine learning-based framework for forecasting sales of new products with short life cycles using deep neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1874-1894.
    6. Anna Sznajderska & Alfred A. Haug, 2023. "Bayesian VARs of the U.S. economy before and during the pandemic," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(2), pages 211-236, June.
    7. Michael Pedersen, 2024. "Judgment in macroeconomic output growth predictions: Efficiency, accuracy and persistence," Papers 2404.04105, arXiv.org.
    8. Jun Meng & Jingfang Fan & Uma S. Bhatt & Jürgen Kurths, 2023. "Arctic weather variability and connectivity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Ramos, Paulo Vitor B. & Villela, Saulo Moraes & Silva, Walquiria N. & Dias, Bruno H., 2023. "Residential energy consumption forecasting using deep learning models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    10. Marek Kwas & Alessia Paccagnini & Michal Rubaszek, 2020. "Common factors and the dynamics of cereal prices. A forecasting perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2020-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Aitazaz Ali Raja & Pierre Pinson & Jalal Kazempour & Sergio Grammatico, 2022. "A Market for Trading Forecasts: A Wagering Mechanism," Papers 2205.02668, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    12. Wang, Xiaoqian & Kang, Yanfei & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng, 2023. "Distributed ARIMA models for ultra-long time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1163-1184.
    13. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Micha{l} Narajewski & Rafa{l} Weron & Florian Ziel, 2022. "Distributional neural networks for electricity price forecasting," Papers 2207.02832, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    14. Tetiana Zatonatska & Olena Liashenko & Yana Fareniuk & Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi & Artur Dmowski & Marzena Cichorzewska, 2022. "The Migration Influence on the Forecasting of Health Care Budget Expenditures in the Direction of Sustainability: Case of Ukraine," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-17, November.
    15. Jeroen Rombouts & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2024. "Cross-Temporal Forecast Reconciliation at Digital Platforms with Machine Learning," Papers 2402.09033, arXiv.org.
    16. Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2022. "Distributional modeling and forecasting of natural gas prices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1065-1086, September.
    17. Oscar Espinosa & Valeria Bejarano & Jeferson Ramos & Boris Martínez, 2023. "Statistical actuarial estimation of the Capitation Payment Unit from copula functions and deep learning: historical comparability analysis for the Colombian health system, 2015–2021," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, December.
    18. Amjad Almusaed & Ibrahim Yitmen & Asaad Almssad, 2023. "Enhancing Smart Home Design with AI Models: A Case Study of Living Spaces Implementation Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-23, March.
    19. Niklas Valentin Lehmann, 2023. "Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts," Papers 2312.09081, arXiv.org.
    20. Jozef Barunik & Lubos Hanus, 2023. "Learning Probability Distributions of Day-Ahead Electricity Prices," Papers 2310.02867, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    21. Bergsteinsson, Hjörleifur G. & Sørensen, Mikkel Lindstrøm & Møller, Jan Kloppenborg & Madsen, Henrik, 2023. "Heat load forecasting using adaptive spatial hierarchies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    22. Silvia Golia & Luigi Grossi & Matteo Pelagatti, 2022. "Machine Learning Models and Intra-Daily Market Information for the Prediction of Italian Electricity Prices," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    23. Nghia Chu & Binh Dao & Nga Pham & Huy Nguyen & Hien Tran, 2022. "Predicting Mutual Funds' Performance using Deep Learning and Ensemble Techniques," Papers 2209.09649, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    24. Li, Xishu & Zuidwijk, Rob & de Koster, M.B.M, 2023. "Optimal competitive capacity strategies: Evidence from the container shipping market," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    25. Alroomi, Azzam & Karamatzanis, Georgios & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Tilba, Anna & Xiao, Shujun, 2022. "Fathoming empirical forecasting competitions’ winners," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1519-1525.
    26. Qi, Lingzhi & Li, Xixi & Wang, Qiang & Jia, Suling, 2023. "fETSmcs: Feature-based ETS model component selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1303-1317.
    27. Richard Bean, 2023. "Forecasting the Monash Microgrid for the IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-23, January.
    28. Guo, Su & Zheng, Kun & He, Yi & Kurban, Aynur, 2023. "The artificial intelligence-assisted short-term optimal scheduling of a cascade hydro-photovoltaic complementary system with hybrid time steps," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1169-1189.
    29. Rai, Amit & Shrivastava, Ashish & Jana, Kartick C., 2023. "Differential attention net: Multi-directed differential attention based hybrid deep learning model for solar power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    30. Anita M. Bunea & Mariangela Guidolin & Piero Manfredi & Pompeo Della Posta, 2022. "Diffusion of Solar PV Energy in the UK: A Comparison of Sectoral Patterns," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-21, April.
    31. Andrea Savio & Luigi De Giovanni & Mariangela Guidolin, 2022. "Modelling Energy Transition in Germany: An Analysis through Ordinary Differential Equations and System Dynamics," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-18, April.
    32. Fernández, Joaquín Delgado & Menci, Sergio Potenciano & Lee, Chul Min & Rieger, Alexander & Fridgen, Gilbert, 2022. "Privacy-preserving federated learning for residential short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    33. Emmanuel Senyo Fianu, 2022. "Analyzing and Forecasting Multi-Commodity Prices Using Variants of Mode Decomposition-Based Extreme Learning Machine Hybridization Approach," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, June.
    34. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Rubaszek, Michał, 2023. "How many fundamentals should we include in the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    35. Radovan Šomplák & Veronika Smejkalová & Martin Rosecký & Lenka Szásziová & Vlastimír Nevrlý & Dušan Hrabec & Martin Pavlas, 2023. "Comprehensive Review on Waste Generation Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-29, February.
    36. Huang, Congzhi & Yang, Mengyuan, 2023. "Memory long and short term time series network for ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    37. Fiszeder, Piotr & Fałdziński, Marcin & Molnár, Peter, 2023. "Modeling and forecasting dynamic conditional correlations with opening, high, low, and closing prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 308-321.
    38. Paul Ghelasi & Florian Ziel, 2023. "Hierarchical forecasting for aggregated curves with an application to day-ahead electricity price auctions," Papers 2305.16255, arXiv.org.
    39. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.

  6. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2020. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Working Papers 2020-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

  7. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2020. "Identifying the Causal Role of CO2 during the Ice Ages," Economics Series Working Papers 898, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson & Mohammed H. I. Dore & Hassan Butt, 2022. "Detecting and Quantifying Structural Breaks in Climate," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, November.

  8. Jennifer Castle & Jurgen Doornik & David Hendry, 2020. "Modelling Non-stationary 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 905, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Escribano, Alvaro & Peña, Daniel & Ruiz, Esther, 2021. "30 years of cointegration and dynamic factor models forecasting and its future with big data: Editorial," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1333-1337.
    2. Katalin Varga & Tibor Szendrei, 2024. "Non-stationary Financial Risk Factors and Macroeconomic Vulnerability for the UK," Papers 2404.01451, arXiv.org.

  9. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2020. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Economics Papers 2020-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2021. "Excess mortality versus COVID-19 death rates: a spatial analysis of socioeconomic disparities and political allegiance across US states," INET Oxford Working Papers 2021-24, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    2. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.

  10. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David Hendry, 2019. "Some forecasting principles from the M4 competition," Economics Papers 2019-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2020. "Short-term forecasting of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 2020-04-27," Economics Papers 2020-W06, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2020. "Card forecasts for M4," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 129-134.
    3. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2022. "Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 453-466.

  11. Jennifer Castle & Jurgen Doornik & David Hendry, 2018. "Selecting a Model for Forecasting," Economics Series Working Papers 861, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Jia, Jian & Kang, Sang Baum, 2022. "Do the basis and other predictors of futures return also predict spot return with the same signs and magnitudes? Evidence from the LME," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).

  12. David Hendry & John Muellbauer, 2017. "The future of macroeconomics: Macro theory and models at the Bank of England," Economics Series Working Papers 832, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Dieppe, Alistair & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ricci, Martino & Van Robays, Ine & van Roye, Björn, 2018. "ECB-Global: Introducing the ECB's global macroeconomic model for spillover analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-98.
    2. John Komlos, 2021. "Macroeconomic Inequality from Reagan to Trump. Market Power, Wage Repression, Asset Price Inflation, and Industrial Decline," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(318), pages 450-453, September.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 2019. "Some Important Macro Points," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2165R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2019.
    4. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2019. "Lack of international risk management in BREXIT?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 103-160, March.
    5. Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2018. "Toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 999-1014.
    6. Georgios Georgiadis & Saskia Mösle, 2020. "Introducing dominant‐currency pricing in the ECB's global macroeconomic model," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 234-256, August.
    7. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    8. Pål Boug & Thomas von Brasch & Ådne Cappelen & Roger Hammersland & Håvard Hungnes & Dag Kolsrud & Julia Skretting & Birger Strøm & Trond C. Vigtel, 2022. "Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy," Discussion Papers 984, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
    10. Aivazian, Sergei & Bereznyatsky, Aleksandr & Brodsky, Boris, 2018. "Modeling Russian social indicators," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 51, pages 5-32.
    11. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2017. "Where Modern Macroeconomics Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 23795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Leon Podkaminer, 2021. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: macroeconomics at a dead end," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 97-122.
    13. Roberto Artoni, 2021. "Passo d'addio (Final recital)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 74(295), pages 213-227.
    14. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Francesco Sergi & Béatrice Cherrier & Juan Acosta & Clément Fontan & François Claveau, 2024. "To change or not to change. The evolution of forecasting models at the Bank of England," Post-Print hal-04431044, HAL.
    15. Schoder, Christian, 2020. "A Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium model for business cycle analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 117-132.
    16. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    17. Marta Boczoń & Jean-François Richard, 2020. "Balanced Growth Approach to Tracking Recessions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-35, April.
    18. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
    19. Dia, Enzo & Bartolomeo, Giovanni Di, 2019. "Macroeconomics, rationality, and institutions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 46-49.
    20. George Judge, 2018. "Micro-Macro Connected Stochastic Dynamic Economic Behavior Systems," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-14, December.
    21. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2017. "Modelling a complex world: Improving macro-models," CAMA Working Papers 2017-56, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    22. Francesco Zezza & Gennaro Zezza, 2020. "A Stock-Flow Consistent Quarterly Model of the Italian Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_958, Levy Economics Institute.
    23. Martin Guzman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 2020. "Towards a dynamic disequilibrium theory with randomness," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 621-674.
    24. John Muellbauer, 2019. "A Tale of Two Cities: is Overvaluation a Capital Issue?," Economics Series Working Papers 872, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    25. Anette Borge & Gunnar Bårdsen & Junior Maih, 2019. "Expectations switching in a DSGE model for the UK," Working Paper Series 18119, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    26. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, "undated". "An Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Model for Denmark," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_942, Levy Economics Institute.
    27. Riccardo De Bonis & Danilo Liberati & John Muellbauer & Concetta Rondinelli, 2020. "Consumption and wealth: new evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1304, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    28. Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    29. Kang‐Soek Lee & Richard A. Werner, 2023. "Are lower interest rates really associated with higher growth? New empirical evidence on the interest rate thesis from 19 countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3960-3975, October.
    30. Anthony Brassil & Mike Major & Peter Rickards, 2022. "MARTIN Gets a Bank Account: Adding a Banking Sector to the RBA's Macroeconometric Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    31. Judge, George, 2023. "Information Recovery in Complex Economic Systems," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt4jj70102, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    32. Muellbauer, John, 2018. "The Future of Macroeconomics," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    33. Jesper Lindé, 2018. "DSGE models: still useful in policy analysis?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 269-286.
    34. Francisco Louçã & Alexandre Abreu & Gonçalo Pessa Costa, 2021. "Disarray at the headquarters: Economists and Central bankers tested by the subprime and the COVID recessions [Forward guidance without common knowledge]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 273-296.
    35. Elshurafa, Amro M. & Alatawi, Hatem & Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Algahtani, Goblan J. & Felder, Frank A., 2022. "Cost, emission, and macroeconomic implications of diesel displacement in the Saudi agricultural sector: Options and policy insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    36. Georgiadis, Georgios & Hildebrand, Sebastian & Ricci, Martino & Schumann, Ben & van Roye, Björn, 2021. "ECB-Global 2.0: a global macroeconomic model with dominant-currency pricing, tariffs and trade diversion," Working Paper Series 2530, European Central Bank.
    37. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Noha Razek, 2023. "Oil and Non-Oil Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s International Competitiveness: Historical Analysis and Policy Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-39, June.
    38. Valérie Chauvin & John Muellbauer, 2018. "Consumption, household portfolios and the housing market in France," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 500-501-5, pages 157-178.
    39. M. Yu. Andreyev & A. V. Polbin, 2019. "Trends of Macroeconomic Models," Administrative Consulting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management., issue 2.
    40. Francesco Sergi, 2020. "The Standard Narrative about DSGE Models in Central Banks’ Technical Reports," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 163-193, March.
    41. Cars Hommes & Sebastian Poledna, 2023. "Analyzing and forecasting economic crises with an agent-based model of the euro area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-013/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    42. Ray C. Fair, 2019. "Some Important Macro Points," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2165, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    43. Sheila Dow, 2020. "Gender and the future of macroeconomics: an evolutionary approach," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 55-66, May.

  13. James Duffy & David Hendry, 2017. "The Impact of Integrated Measurement Errors on Modelling Long-run Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics Series Working Papers 818, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    2. Santiago José Gahn & Alejandro González, 2020. "On the ‘utilisation controversy’: a comment," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 703-707.
    3. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    5. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    6. David F. Hendry, 2020. "First in, First out: Econometric Modelling of UK Annual CO_2 Emissions, 1860–2017," Economics Papers 2020-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    7. Stephan B. Bruns & Zsuzsanna Csereklyei & David I. Stern, 2018. "A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change," CCEP Working Papers 1801, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Eric Hillebrand & Søren Johansen & Torben Schmith, 2020. "Data Revisions and the Statistical Relation of Global Mean Sea Level and Surface Temperature," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, November.

  14. David Hendry & Lea Schneider & Jason E. Smerdon, 2016. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 780, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    2. Felix Pretis, 2022. "Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 115-144, September.
    3. David H. Bernstein & Andrew B. Martinez, 2021. "Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    5. Shaher Al-Gounmeein Remal & Ismail Mohd Tahir, 2021. "Modelling and forecasting monthly Brent crude oil prices: a long memory and volatility approach," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 29-54, March.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2016. "The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms," Discussion Papers 16-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    8. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    9. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers 2020-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    10. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    11. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Interpreting estimates of forecast bias," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 563-568.
    12. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," CAMA Working Papers 2020-63, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Pretis, Felix, 2020. "Econometric modelling of climate systems: The equivalence of energy balance models and cointegrated vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 256-273.
    15. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    16. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2016. "Outliers and Model Selection: Discussion of the Paper by Søren Johansen and Bent Nielsen," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(2), pages 360-365, June.

  15. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    2. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    3. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    4. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
    5. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    8. Roberto Casarin & Fausto Corradin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Nguyen Domenico Sartore, 2020. "A Scoring Rule for Factor and Autoregressive Models Under Misspecification," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(2), pages 66-103, June.
    9. Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    10. Castle, Jennifer L. & Kurita, Takamitsu, 2021. "A dynamic econometric analysis of the dollar-pound exchange rate in an era of structural breaks and policy regime shifts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Predicting the exchange rate path. The importance of using up-to-date observations in the forecasts," Discussion Papers 934, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    12. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, May.
    13. Håvard Hungnes, 2018. "Encompassing tests for evaluating multi-step system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 871, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    14. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2017. "Robustness of Multistep Forecasts and Predictive Regressions at Intermediate and Long Horizons," ESSEC Working Papers WP1710, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.

  16. David Hendry, 2016. "Deciding Between Alternative Approaches In Macroeconomics," Economics Series Working Papers 778, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Roman Frydman & Soren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Tabor, 2019. "The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth`s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes," Working Papers Series 92, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    2. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    3. Fakhri Hasanov & Fred Joutz & Muhammad Javid, 2021. "Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Discussion Papers ks--2021-dp09, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    4. Marta Boczon, 2018. "Balanced Growth Approach to Forecasting Recessions," Working Paper 6487, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    5. Huang, Tao & Fildes, Robert & Soopramanien, Didier, 2019. "Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 459-470.
    6. Ragnar Nymoen & Kari Pedersen & Jon Ivar Sjåberg, 2019. "Estimation of Effects of Recent Macroprudential Policies in a Sample of Advanced Open Economies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-20, May.
    7. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin & Wanling Qiu, 2019. "Topologically Mapping the Macroeconomy," Papers 1911.10476, arXiv.org.
    8. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    9. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    10. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov, 2020. "Revisiting Energy Demand Relationship: Theory and Empirical Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, April.
    12. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2020. "Identifying the Causal Role of CO2 during the Ice Ages," Economics Series Working Papers 898, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Dai, Hongyan & Xiao, Qin & Chen, Songlin & Zhou, Weihua, 2023. "Data-driven demand forecast for O2O operations: An adaptive hierarchical incremental approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    14. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Economics Papers 2021-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Moayad H. Al Rasasi & Salah S. Alsayaary & Ziyadh Alfawzan, 2022. "Money demand under a fixed exchange rate regime: the case of Saudi Arabia," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 385-411, December.
    16. Roman Frydman & Soeren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2019. "The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth�s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes," Discussion Papers 19-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    17. Elshurafa, Amro M. & Alatawi, Hatem & Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Algahtani, Goblan J. & Felder, Frank A., 2022. "Cost, emission, and macroeconomic implications of diesel displacement in the Saudi agricultural sector: Options and policy insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Noha Razek, 2023. "Oil and Non-Oil Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s International Competitiveness: Historical Analysis and Policy Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-39, June.
    19. Nymoen, Ragnar & Pedersen, Kari & Sjåberg, Jon Ivar, 2018. "Estimation of effects of recent macroprudential policies in a sample of advanced open economies," Memorandum 5/2018, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    20. Zhonghua Cheng & Qingfei Xu & Ian Fraser Sanderson, 2021. "China's economic growth and haze pollution control," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2653-2669, July.

  17. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolás Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2021. "Unraveling the Exogenous Forces Behind Analysts’ Macroeconomic Forecasts," Borradores de Economia 1184, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

  18. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 779, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    2. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    3. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Jennifer L. Castle, 2022. "Machine Learning Dynamic Switching Approach to Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 129-157, July.
    5. Marta Boczon, 2018. "Balanced Growth Approach to Forecasting Recessions," Working Paper 6487, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    6. Luca Nocciola, "undated". "Finite sample forecast properties and window length under breaks in cointegrated systems," Discussion Papers 19/07, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    7. Tebecis, Talis, 2023. "Have climate policies been effective in Austria? A reverse causal analysis," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 346, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    8. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Has Macroeconomic Forecasting changed after the Great Recession? - Panel-based Evidence on Accuracy and Forecaster Behaviour from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    9. Marta Boczoń & Jean-François Richard, 2020. "Balanced Growth Approach to Tracking Recessions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-35, April.
    10. Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Muhammad Nadim Hanif, 2019. "Learning from Errors While Forecasting Inflation: A Case for Intercept Correction," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 11(1), pages 24-38, April.
    11. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," CAMA Working Papers 2020-63, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Fokin, Nikita, 2021. "The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 5-29.
    13. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler, 2018. "NKPC-Based Inflation Forecasts with a Time-Varying Trend," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2018-05, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    14. Xin, Daleng & Ahmad, Manzoor & Lei, Hong & Khattak, Shoukat Iqbal, 2021. "Do innovation in environmental-related technologies asymmetrically affect carbon dioxide emissions in the United States?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Talis Tebecis, 2023. "Have climate policies been effective in Austria? A reverse causal analysis," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp346, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    16. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2023. "An artificial intelligence approach to forecasting when there are structural breaks: a reinforcement learning-based framework for fast switching," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1729-1759, October.
    17. igescu, iulia, 2020. "Describing Location Shifts with One Class Support Vector Machines," MPRA Paper 100984, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  19. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Robust Approaches to Forecasting," Economics Series Working Papers 697, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    2. Pinto, Jeronymo Marcondes & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2019. "Cross-validation based forecasting method: a machine learning approach," Textos para discussão 498, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    3. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Jennifer L. Castle, 2022. "Machine Learning Dynamic Switching Approach to Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 129-157, July.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. David Hendry & John Muellbauer, 2017. "The future of macroeconomics: Macro theory and models at the Bank of England," Economics Series Working Papers 832, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    8. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Selecting a Model for Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, June.
    9. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    10. Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Eli Hadad Junior, 2016. "Is It Possible to Beat the Random Walk Model in Exchange Rate Forecasting? More Evidence for Brazilian Case," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 14(1), pages 65-88.
    11. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2020. "Short-term forecasting of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 2020-04-27," Economics Papers 2020-W06, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    12. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    13. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," CAMA Working Papers 2020-63, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Clements, Michael P., 2016. "Real-time factor model forecasting and the effects of instability," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 661-675.
    17. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    18. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Economics Papers 2021-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    19. Castle, Jennifer L. & Kurita, Takamitsu, 2021. "A dynamic econometric analysis of the dollar-pound exchange rate in an era of structural breaks and policy regime shifts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    20. John B. Guerard, 2024. "Sir David Hendry: An Appreciation from Wall Street and What Macroeconomics Got Right," Working Papers 2024-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Feb 2024.
    21. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2019. "Tales from tails: On the empirical distributions of forecasting errors and their implication to risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 687-698.
    22. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2022. "Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 453-466.
    23. Papailias, Fotis & Thomakos, Dimitrios, 2017. "EXSSA: SSA-based reconstruction of time series via exponential smoothing of covariance eigenvalues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 214-229.
    24. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2023. "An artificial intelligence approach to forecasting when there are structural breaks: a reinforcement learning-based framework for fast switching," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1729-1759, October.
    25. Kyriazi, Foteini & Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Guerard, John B., 2019. "Adaptive learning forecasting, with applications in forecasting agricultural prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1356-1369.
    26. Lin, Jilei & Eck, Daniel J., 2021. "Minimizing post-shock forecasting error through aggregation of outside information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1710-1727.

  20. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    2. Mikkel Bennedsen & Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman, 2019. "Modeling, Forecasting, and Nowcasting U.S. CO2 Emissions Using Many Macroeconomic Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2019-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Rahul Verma & Rajesh Mohnot, 2023. "Relative Impact of the U.S. Energy Market Sentiments on Stocks and ESG Index Returns: Evidence from GCC Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 290-300, March.
    4. Sara Muhammadullah & Amena Urooj & Faridoon Khan, 2021. "A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(2), pages 80-92, September.
    5. Cai, Zhengzheng & Zhu, Yanli & Han, Xiaoyi, 2022. "Bayesian analysis of spatial dynamic panel data model with convex combinations of different spatial weight matrices: A reparameterized approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    6. Omar A. Guerrero & Gonzalo Casta~neda & Florian Ch'avez-Ju'arez, 2019. "How do governments determine policy priorities? Studying development strategies through spillover networks," Papers 1902.00432, arXiv.org.
    7. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    8. Bantis, Evripidis & Clements, Michael P. & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting GDP growth rates in the United States and Brazil using Google Trends," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1909-1924.
    9. Verhagen, Mark D., 2021. "Identifying and Improving Functional Form Complexity: A Machine Learning Framework," SocArXiv bka76, Center for Open Science.
    10. Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
    11. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    12. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    13. Xiaoyi Han & Lung-Fei Lee, 2016. "Bayesian Analysis of Spatial Panel Autoregressive Models With Time-Varying Endogenous Spatial Weight Matrices, Common Factors, and Random Coefficients," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 642-660, October.
    14. Schintler, Laurie A. & Fischer, Manfred M., 2018. "Big Data and Regional Science: Opportunities, Challenges, and Directions for Future Research," Working Papers in Regional Science 2018/02, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    15. Sabyasachi Kar & Amaani Bashir & Mayank Jain, 2021. "New Approaches to Forecasting Growth and Inflation: Big Data and Machine Learning," IEG Working Papers 446, Institute of Economic Growth.

  21. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Step-indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 658, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Haile, Fiseha, 2016. "Global shocks and their impact on the Tanzanian Economy," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-47, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. David Hendry & Lea Schneider & Jason E. Smerdon, 2016. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 780, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2014. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Relationships: An Automated Model Selection Approach with Indicator Saturation," Working Papers 1405, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    4. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    5. Leighton Vaughan Williams & J. James Reade, 2016. "Prediction Markets, Social Media and Information Efficiency," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 518-556, August.
    6. Alexander Chudik & George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Big Data Analytics: A New Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 5824, CESifo.
    7. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2015. "Forecasting a large set of disaggregates with common trends and outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "TIPS and the VIX: Non-linear Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation," Working Papers 1502, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    10. Haile, Fiseha, 2017. "Global shocks and their impact on the Tanzanian economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-38.
    11. Panday, Anjan, 2015. "Impact of monetary policy on exchange market pressure: The case of Nepal," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-71.
    12. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Mukanjari, Samson & Sterner, Thomas, 2018. "Do Markets Trump Politics? Evidence from Fossil Market Reactions to the Paris Agreement and the U.S. Election," Working Papers in Economics 728, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    14. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2014. "Model selection in under-specified equations facing breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 286-293.
    15. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2015. "Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: the Indicator Saturation Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113137, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2019. "Actual monetary policy independence in a small open economy: the Polish perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 499-522, February.
    17. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    18. Ahumada, H. & Cornejo, M., 2016. "Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-848.
    19. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.
    20. James Reade & Genaro Sucarrat, 2016. "General-to-Specific (GETS) Modelling And Indicator Saturation With The R Package Gets," Economics Series Working Papers 794, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  22. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Katarina Juselius, 2022. "A Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario for a Monetary Model with Forward-Looking Expectations," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2014. "The a/simmetrie annual macroeconometric model of the Italian economy: structure and properties," a/ Working Papers Series 1405, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    3. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    5. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. David Hendry & John Muellbauer, 2017. "The future of macroeconomics: Macro theory and models at the Bank of England," Economics Series Working Papers 832, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Leon Podkaminer, 2021. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: macroeconomics at a dead end," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 97-122.
    9. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    10. Jose J. Canals-Cerda, 2024. "CECL Implementation and Model Risk in Uncertain Times: An Application to Consumer Finance," Working Papers 24-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Schulz, Jan & Mayerhoffer, Daniel M., 2021. "A network approach to consumption," BERG Working Paper Series 173, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    12. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers 2020-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    13. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    14. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
    16. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Nicola Giocoli, 2016. "Truth or precision? Some reflections on the economists’ failure to predict the financial crisis," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 371-386, December.
    18. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    19. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    20. Jun, Bogang & Kim, Tai-Yoo, 2015. "A neo-Schumpeterian perspective on the analytical macroeconomic framework: The expanded reproduction system," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2015, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    21. Cheng, Fenfen & Yang, Shanlin & Zhou, Kaile, 2020. "Quantile partial adjustment model with application to predicting energy demand in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    22. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    23. Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    24. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2017. "Modelling an Emergent Economy and Parameter Instability Problem," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-28, June.
    25. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Principles from Experience with Forecasting Competitions," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-28, February.
    26. Huseynov, Salman & Ahmadov, Vugar & Adigozalov, Shaig, 2014. "Beating a Random Walk: “Hard Times” for Forecasting Inflation in Post-Oil Boom Years?," MPRA Paper 63515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Muellbauer, John, 2018. "The Future of Macroeconomics," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    28. J. James Reade & Sachiko Akie, 2013. "Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption in International Football," Working Papers 2013-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    29. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    30. Zhonghua Cheng & Qingfei Xu & Ian Fraser Sanderson, 2021. "China's economic growth and haze pollution control," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2653-2669, July.
    31. Alexander HARIN, 2014. "Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 2(2), pages 69-79.
    32. Bing Chen & Frank P. Stafford, 2019. "A Farewell to ARMs or Ever Changing Market Segments?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 649-672, November.
    33. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2016. "Outliers and Model Selection: Discussion of the Paper by Søren Johansen and Bent Nielsen," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(2), pages 360-365, June.

  23. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).

  24. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Balcombe, Kelvin & Fraser, Iain, 2017. "Do bubbles have an explosive signature in markov switching models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 81-100.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Bonino-Gayoso, Nicolás & García-Hiernaux, Alfredo, 2019. "TF-MIDAS: a new mixed-frequency model to forecast macroeconomic variables," MPRA Paper 93366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.

  25. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Some Fallacies in Econometric Modelling of Climate Change," Economics Series Working Papers 643, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Lea Schneider & Jason E. Smerdon, 2016. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 780, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2017. "Trends in distributional characteristics : Existence of global warming," UC3M Working papers. Economics 24121, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    3. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2013. "Robust Cointegration Testing in the Presence of Weak Trends, with an Application to the Human Origin of Global Warming," ESSEC Working Papers WP1320, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    4. Stephan B. Bruns & Zsuzsanna Csereklyei & David I. Stern, 2018. "A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change," CCEP Working Papers 1801, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

  26. David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2012. "Model Discovery and Trygve Haavelmo's Legacy," Economics Series Working Papers 598, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Lea Schneider & Jason E. Smerdon, 2016. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 780, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    3. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    4. Felix Pretis, 2022. "Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 115-144, September.
    5. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    8. David Hendry & John Muellbauer, 2017. "The future of macroeconomics: Macro theory and models at the Bank of England," Economics Series Working Papers 832, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Ragnar Nymoen & Kari Pedersen & Jon Ivar Sjåberg, 2019. "Estimation of Effects of Recent Macroprudential Policies in a Sample of Advanced Open Economies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-20, May.
    11. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers 2020-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    12. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    13. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    14. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. John Muellbauer, 2016. "Macroeconomics and Consumption," Economics Series Working Papers Paper-811, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    20. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    21. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Moayad H. Al Rasasi & Salah S. Alsayaary & Ziyadh Alfawzan, 2022. "Money demand under a fixed exchange rate regime: the case of Saudi Arabia," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 385-411, December.
    22. Neil R. Ericsson & Mohammed H. I. Dore & Hassan Butt, 2022. "Detecting and Quantifying Structural Breaks in Climate," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, November.
    23. Biørn, Erik, 2017. "Identification, Instruments, Omitted Variables, and Rudimentary Models: Fallacies in the ‘Experimental Approach’ to Econometrics," Memorandum 13/2017, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    24. Nymoen, Ragnar & Pedersen, Kari & Sjåberg, Jon Ivar, 2018. "Estimation of effects of recent macroprudential policies in a sample of advanced open economies," Memorandum 5/2018, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    25. Ericsson Neil R., 2016. "Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 377-398, September.

  27. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2012. "Mis-specification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Working Paper series 50_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    Cited by:

    1. Philip Hans Franses, 2019. "Model‐based forecast adjustment: With an illustration to inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 73-80, March.
    2. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    3. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Issues in Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    5. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    7. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    8. Kristine Wika Haraldsen & Ragnar Nymoen & Victoria Sparrman, 2019. "Labour market institutions, shocks and the employment rate," Discussion Papers 901, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    10. Haraldsen, Kristine Wika & Ragnar, Nymoen & Sparrman, Victoria, 2019. "Labour market institutions, shocks and the employment rate," Memorandum 6/2019, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    11. Melnick, Rafi & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "Disinflation in steps and the Phillips curve: Israel 1986–2015," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 145-161.

  28. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Bell, Venetia & Co, Lai Wah & Stone, Sophie & Wallis, gavin`, 2014. "Nowcasting UK GDP growth," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 58-68.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Economic Forecasts Today– Possibilities and Problems," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 25-32, January.

  29. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson & Mohammed H. I. Dore & Hassan Butt, 2022. "Detecting and Quantifying Structural Breaks in Climate," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, November.
    4. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Testing for Structural Stability of Factor Augmented Forecasting Models," Departmental Working Papers 201314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.

  30. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett, 2011. "Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 535, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    2. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    3. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    4. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2012. "Modelling the impact of aggregate financial shocks external to the Chinese economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2012. "Adaptive Forcasting in the Presence of Recent and Ongoing Structural Change," CAMA Working Papers 2012-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    7. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    8. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How Useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 171-193, February.
    10. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," CAMA Working Papers 2020-63, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    13. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    14. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    17. Fardoust, Shahrokh & Dhareshwar, Ashok, 2013. "Some thoughts on making long-term forecasts for the world economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6705, The World Bank.
    18. Muellbauer, John, 2018. "The Future of Macroeconomics," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    19. Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
    20. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    21. William Larson, 2015. "Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates," Working Papers 2015-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

  31. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Lea Schneider & Jason E. Smerdon, 2016. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 780, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Pretis, Felix, 2020. "Econometric modelling of climate systems: The equivalence of energy balance models and cointegrated vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 256-273.
    6. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2015. "Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: the Indicator Saturation Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113137, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Pretis, Felix, 2021. "Exogeneity in climate econometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    9. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.
    11. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James & Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 2019. "When are prediction market prices most informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 420-428.

  32. David F. Hendry & Søren Johansen, 2011. "The Properties of Model Selection when Retaining Theory Variables," CREATES Research Papers 2011-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Flachaire & Gilles Hacheme & Sullivan Hu'e & S'ebastien Laurent, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable Machine Learning," Papers 2203.11691, arXiv.org.
    2. Sullivan Hué, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable machine learning," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 19, Stata Users Group.
    3. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  33. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2011. "On Not Evaluating Economic Models by Forecast Outcomes," Economics Series Working Papers 538, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.

  34. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2011. "Model Selection in Equations with Many 'Small' Effects," Economics Series Working Papers 528, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Rahul Verma & Rajesh Mohnot, 2023. "Relative Impact of the U.S. Energy Market Sentiments on Stocks and ESG Index Returns: Evidence from GCC Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 290-300, March.
    2. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Yuxuan Huang, 2016. "Forecasting the USD/CNY Exchange Rate under Different Policy Regimes," Working Papers 2016-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.

  35. David Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Economics Series Working Papers 529, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Cunha, Ronan & Merlin, Giovanni Tondin & Simões, Oscar, 2017. "The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?," Textos para discussão 459, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    2. Qin, Duo & Xu, Zhong & Zhang, Xuechun, 2014. "How much informal credit lending responded to monetary policy in China? The case of Wenzhou," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 22-31.
    3. Subhadeep Mukhopadhyay & Emanuel Parzen, 2018. "Nonlinear Time Series Modeling: A Unified Perspective, Algorithm and Application," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Burridge, Peter, 2011. "A research agenda on general-to-specific spatial model search," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 21, pages 71-90.
    5. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    6. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline & Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Merlin, Giovanni Tondin & Simões, Oscar Rodrigues, 2016. "Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression," Textos para discussão 416, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).

  36. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2010. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," Working Paper Series 10810, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    2. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2010. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Economics Series Working Papers 474, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), 2014. "Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14821.
    6. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
    7. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. James Reade, 2014. "Detecting corruption in football," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 25, pages 419-446, Edward Elgar Publishing.

  37. David Hendry, 2010. "Climate Change: Lessons for our Future from the Distant Past," Economics Series Working Papers 485, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. McDermott, Thomas K. J. & Barry, Frank & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011. "Disasters and Development: Natural Disasters, Credit Constraints and Economic Growth," Papers WP411, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

  38. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2010. "On the Mathematical Basis of Inter-temporal Optimization," Economics Series Working Papers 497, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2018. "Toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 999-1014.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    3. Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Forecasting in a complex environment: Machine learning sales expectations in a stock flow consistent agent-based simulation model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Cornea, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2012. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    5. de Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63984, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2023. "Estimation of heuristic switching in behavioral macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. André K. Anundsen & Ragnar Nymoen & Tord S. Krogh & Jon Vislie, 2012. "The macroeconomics of Trygve Haavelmo," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 37, pages 1-2.
    8. Alan Kirman, 2014. "Is it rational to have rational expectations?," Post-Print hal-01463917, HAL.
    9. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
    10. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    12. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Davide Bazzana, 2020. "Ageing population and pension system sustainability: reforms and redistributive implications," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 971-992, October.
    14. David Hendry, 2010. "Climate Change: Lessons for our Future from the Distant Past," Economics Series Working Papers 485, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Kevin Hoover & Katarina Juselius, 2012. "Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis: Trygve Haavelmo and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," Discussion Papers 12-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    16. Alan Kirman, 2016. "Complexity and Economic Policy: A Paradigm Shift or a Change in Perspective? A Review Essay on David Colander and Roland Kupers's Complexity and the Art of Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(2), pages 534-572, June.

  39. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2010. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Economics Series Working Papers 474, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Lea Schneider & Jason E. Smerdon, 2016. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 780, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Buckle, Robert A & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2021. "Sources of Convergence and Divergence in University Research Quality: Evidence from the Performance-Based Research Funding System in New Zealand," Working Paper Series 21113, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    3. Anundsen, André Kallåk, 2013. "Economic Regime Shifts and the US Subprime Bubble," Memorandum 05/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    4. Fakhri Hasanov & Fred Joutz & Muhammad Javid, 2021. "Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Discussion Papers ks--2021-dp09, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    5. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
    6. David H. Bernstein & Andrew B. Martinez, 2021. "Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Dr. Alain Galli & Dr. Christian Hepenstrick & Dr. Rolf Scheufele, 2017. "Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland," Working Papers 2017-02, Swiss National Bank.
    8. Bent Jesper Christensen & Nabanita Datta Gupta & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2021. "Measuring the impact of clean energy production on CO2 abatement in Denmark: Upper bound estimation and forecasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(1), pages 118-149, January.
    9. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Step-indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 658, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    11. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Elchin Suleymanov & Heyran Aliyeva & Hezi Eynalov & Sa'd Shannak, 2022. "What Drives the Agricultural Growth in Azerbaijan? Insights from Autometrics with Super Saturation," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 147-174.
    12. Emmanuel Flachaire & Gilles Hacheme & Sullivan Hu'e & S'ebastien Laurent, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable Machine Learning," Papers 2203.11691, arXiv.org.
    13. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga, 2013. "Comparing variable selection techniques for linear regression: LASSO and Autometrics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13080, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    14. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2016. "Discovering common trends in a large set of disaggregates: statistical procedures and their properties," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1519, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    15. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers 2020-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    16. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    17. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2014. "Outlier detection algorithms for least squares time series regression," CREATES Research Papers 2014-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    20. Massimiliano Caporin & Francesco Poli, 2017. "Building News Measures from Textual Data and an Application to Volatility Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-46, August.
    21. David F. Hendry & Søren Johansen, 2011. "The Properties of Model Selection when Retaining Theory Variables," Discussion Papers 11-25, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    22. Tasneem, Dina & Engle-Warnick, Jim & Benchekroun, Hassan, 2017. "An experimental study of a common property renewable resource game in continuous time," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 91-119.
    23. Laura Bisio & Filippo Moauro, 2018. "Temporal disaggregation by dynamic regressions: Recent developments in Italian quarterly national accounts," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 471-494, November.
    24. Chuffart, Thomas & Hooper, Emma, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 904-916.
    25. Driver, Ciaran & Trapani, Lorenzo & Urga, Giovanni, 2013. "On the use of cross-sectional measures of forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 367-377.
    26. Aris Spanos, 2011. "Foundational Issues in Statistical Modeling: Statistical Model Specification and Validation," Rationality, Markets and Morals, Frankfurt School Verlag, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, vol. 2(47), October.
    27. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
    28. Kornstad, Tom & Nymoen, Ragnar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2013. "Macroeconomic shocks and the probability of being employed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 572-587.
    29. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga & Joel Correa da Rosa, 2017. "Variable selection and forecasting via automated methods for linear models: LASSO/adaLASSO and Autometrics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00917797, HAL.
    30. Guillermo Carlomagno & Antoni Espasa, 2021. "Discovering Specific Common Trends in a Large Set of Disaggregates: Statistical Procedures, their Properties and an Empirical Application," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 641-662, June.
    31. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2015. "Forecasting a large set of disaggregates with common trends and outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    32. Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria, 2012. "Panel Data Evidence on the Role of Institutions and Shocks for Unemployment Dynamics and Equilibrium," Memorandum 20/2012, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    33. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    34. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    35. Waqar Badshah & Mehmet Bulut, 2020. "Model Selection Procedures in Bounds Test of Cointegration: Theoretical Comparison and Empirical Evidence," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-23, June.
    36. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    37. Søren Johansen & Lukasz Gatarek, 2014. "Optimal hedging with the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," CREATES Research Papers 2014-40, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    38. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2014. "Model selection in under-specified equations facing breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 286-293.
    39. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    40. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    41. André K. Anundsen, 2019. "Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes Up Must Come Down?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(4), pages 1587-1619, October.
    42. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    43. Sophia Voulgaropoulou & Nikolaos Samaras & Nikolaos Ploskas, 2022. "Predicting the Execution Time of the Primal and Dual Simplex Algorithms Using Artificial Neural Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, March.
    44. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2016. "Asymptotic Theory of Outlier Detection Algorithms for Linear Time Series Regression Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(2), pages 321-348, June.
    45. Sullivan Hué, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable machine learning," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 19, Stata Users Group.
    46. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    47. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    48. Jennifer Castle & Xiaochuan Qin & W. Robert Reed, 2011. "Using Model Selection Algorthims to Obtain Reliable Coefficient Estimates," Working Papers in Economics 11/03, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    49. Tomáš Plíhal, 2021. "Scheduled macroeconomic news announcements and Forex volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1379-1397, December.
    50. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
    51. Steven L. Scott & Hal R. Varian, 2015. "Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy, pages 119-135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Loann David Denis Desboulets, 2018. "A Review on Variable Selection in Regression Analysis," Post-Print hal-01954386, HAL.
    53. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    54. Pellini, Elisabetta, 2021. "Estimating income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand with Autometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    55. Benedictow, Andreas & Hammersland, Roger, 2023. "Transition risk of a petroleum currency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    56. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.
    57. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    58. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," Post-Print hal-01996210, HAL.
    59. Mukhtarov, Shahriyar & Mikayilov, Jeyhun I., 2023. "Could financial development eliminate energy poverty through renewable energy in Poland?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    60. Asad Zaman, 2017. "Lessons in Econometric Methodology: The Axiom of Correct Specification," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 9(2), pages 50-68, September.
    61. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    62. Carlomagno Real, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2017. "Discovering pervasive and non-pervasive common cycles," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 25392, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    63. Robert A. Buckle & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2020. "Is external research assessment associated with convergence or divergence of research quality across universities and disciplines? Evidence from the PBRF process in New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(36), pages 3919-3932, July.
    64. Daniel O. Beltran & Valentin Bolotnyy & Elizabeth C. Klee, 2015. "Un-Networking: The Evolution of Networks in the Federal Funds Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    65. Cunha, Ronan & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Automatic model selection for forecasting Brazilian stock returns," Textos para discussão 398, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    66. Robert A. Buckle & John Creedy, 2022. "Methods to evaluate institutional responses to performance‐based research funding systems," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 615-634, September.

  40. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos, Thiago Carlomagno & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon," Textos para discussão 346, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    2. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    3. C. Thubin & T. Ferrière & E. Monnet & M. Marx & V. Oung, 2016. "The PRISME model: can disaggregation on the production side help to forecast GDP?," Working papers 596, Banque de France.
    4. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    5. Gabriel Pino & J. D. Tena & Antoni Espasa, 2016. "Geographical disaggregation of sectoral inflation. Econometric modelling of the Euro area and Spanish economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 799-815, February.
    6. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Gabe de Bondt & Arne Gieseck & Pablo Herrero & Zivile Zekaite, 2021. "Euro Area Income and Wealth Effects: Aggregation Issues," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(6), pages 1454-1474, December.
    8. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market: A note on the roles of U.S. and non-U.S. oil production," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 176-181.
    9. Nikolay P. Pilnik & Igor Pospelov & Ivan P. Stankevich, 2015. "Multiproduct Model Decomposition of Components of Russian GDP," HSE Working papers WP BRP 111/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    10. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2016. "Time-series measures of core inflation," Working Papers 2016-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    11. Colin Bermingham & Antonello D’Agostino, 2014. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 765-788, March.
    12. Stéphane Dées & Jochen Güntner, 2014. "Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: A panel VAR approach," Economics working papers 2014-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
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    63. Garciga, Christian & Knotek II, Edward S., 2019. "Forecasting GDP growth with NIPA aggregates: In search of core GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1814-1828.
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    65. Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    66. Proietti, Tommaso & Giovannelli, Alessandro & Ricchi, Ottavio & Citton, Ambra & Tegami, Christían & Tinti, Cristina, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP and its components in a data-rich environment: The merits of the indirect approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1376-1398.
    67. Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Do business tendency surveys help in forecasting employment?: A real-time evidence for Switzerland," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 129-151.
    69. Mansoor Maitah & Daniel Toth & Elena Kuzmenko & Karel r dl & Helena Rezbov & Petra nov, 2016. "Forecast of Employment in Switzerland: The Macroeconomic View," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 132-138.
    70. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
    71. Kausik Chaudhuri & Saumitra N. Bhaduri, 2019. "Inflation Forecast: Just use the Disaggregate or Combine it with the Aggregate," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 331-343, June.
    72. Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Feng Ma, 2021. "Forecasting US stock market volatility: How to use international volatility information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 733-768, August.
    73. Barrera, Carlos, 2013. "El sistema de predicción desagregada: Una evaluación de las proyecciones de inflación 2006-2011," Working Papers 2013-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    74. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    75. Lan Bai & Xiafei Li & Yu Wei & Guiwu Wei, 2022. "Does crude oil futures price really help to predict spot oil price? New evidence from density forecasting," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3694-3712, July.
    76. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    77. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
    78. Guillermo Carlomagno & Nicolas Eterovic & L. G. Hernández-Román, 2023. "Disentangling Demand and Supply Inflation Shocks from Chilean Electronic Payment Data," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 986, Central Bank of Chile.
    79. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons," Working Papers 2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    80. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    81. Hyun Hak Kim, 2013. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Dimension Reduction Methods: The Case of Korea," Working Papers 2013-26, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    82. Zeng, Jing, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does boosting help to select the most informative predictors?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100310, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    83. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
    84. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    85. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & James (Jim) C. MacGee & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation," Discussion Papers 2023-3, Bank of Canada.
    86. Jing Zeng, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does Boosting Help to Select the Most Relevant Predictors?," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-20, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    87. Luis J. Álvarez & Isabel Sánchez, 2017. "A suite of inflation forecasting models," Occasional Papers 1703, Banco de España.
    88. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates Using Dynamic Component Grouping," MPRA Paper 81585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    89. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    90. Byeongdeuk Jang & Young Se Kim, 2017. "Driving Forces of Inflation Expectations," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 33, pages 207-237.
    91. César Castro & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "A new look at oil price pass-through into inflation: evidence from disaggregated European data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(1), pages 55-82, April.
    92. Gilberto Boaretto & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2023. "Forecasting inflation using disaggregates and machine learning," Papers 2308.11173, arXiv.org.
    93. Jing Zeng, 2015. "Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    94. Monterrey Mayoral, Juan & Sánchez Segura, Amparo, 2017. "Una evaluación empírica de los métodos de predicción de la rentabilidad y su relación con las características corporativas," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-106.
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  41. Nymoen, Ragnar & L. Castle, Jennifer & A. Doornik, Jurgen & F. Hendry, David, 2010. "Testing the Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Memorandum 21/2010, Oslo University, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Russell, Bill & Chowdhury, Rosen Azad, 2012. "Estimating United States Phillips Curves With Expectations Consistent With The Statistical Process Of Inflation," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-13, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    3. Cornea, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2012. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    4. Syed Kanwar Abbas & Prasad Sankar Bhattacharya & Debdulal Mallick & Pasquale Sgro, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: Empirical Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 409-434, September.
    5. Russell, Bill & Banerjee, Anindya & Malki, Issam & Ponomareva, Natalia, 2011. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach to Estimating United States Phillips Curves," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-27, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. de Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63984, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Issues in Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Mavroeidis, Sophocles & Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel & Stock, James H., 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 22795845, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    9. Nymoen, Ragnar & Rygh Swensen, Anders & Tveter, Eivind, 2011. "Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics," Memorandum 23/2011, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    10. Hendry, David F., 2011. "On adding over-identifying instrumental variables to simultaneous equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 68-70, April.
    11. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "From the General to the Specific," Discussion Papers 11-18, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

  42. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    2. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
    3. Hildegart Ahumada & Magdalena Cornejo, 2015. "Explaining commodity prices by a cointegrated time series-cross section model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1667-1690, June.
    4. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    5. Bent Nielsen & Xiyu Jiao, 2016. "Asymptotic Analysis of Iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators with Varying Cut-offs," Economics Papers 2016-W08, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    6. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2011. "An empirical model for Japan's business fixed investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 107-120, March.
    7. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Step-indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 658, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Dzmitry Kruk, 2011. "The Impact of Directed Lending on Long-run Growth in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 14, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    9. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    12. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers 2020-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    13. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    14. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2014. "Outlier detection algorithms for least squares time series regression," CREATES Research Papers 2014-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    17. Neil R. Ericsson & Erica L. Reisman, 2012. "Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting," Working Papers 2012-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    18. Hendry David F & Mizon Grayham E, 2011. "Econometric Modelling of Time Series with Outlying Observations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, February.
    19. Vanessa Berenguer Rico & Bent Nielsen & Søren Johansen, 2019. "Uniform Consistency of Marked and Weighted Empirical Distributions of Residuals," Economics Series Working Papers 871, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. David F. Hendry & Søren Johansen, 2011. "The Properties of Model Selection when Retaining Theory Variables," Discussion Papers 11-25, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    21. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Interpreting estimates of forecast bias," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 563-568.
    22. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    23. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
    24. Igor Pelipas, 2011. "Structural Breaks and Dynamic Characteristics of Inflation and Growth Rates of Monetary Aggregates," BEROC Working Paper Series 15, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    25. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    26. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2011. "An empirical model for Japan’s business fixed investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 107-120.
    27. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    28. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    29. László Kónya & Bekzod Abdullaev, 2015. "Does Ricardian equivalence hold in Australia? A revision based on testing super exogeneity with impulse-indicator saturation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 423-448, September.
    30. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    31. Søren Johansen & Lukasz Gatarek, 2014. "Optimal hedging with the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," CREATES Research Papers 2014-40, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    32. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2014. "Model selection in under-specified equations facing breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 286-293.
    33. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    34. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    35. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2015. "Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: the Indicator Saturation Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113137, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    36. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    37. Gamber, Edward N. & Liebner, Jeffrey P., 2017. "Comment on “How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?”," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 560-562.
    38. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    39. Hendry, David F., 2011. "On adding over-identifying instrumental variables to simultaneous equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 68-70, April.
    40. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakenas, 2016. "Openness and Structural Labour Market Reforms: Counterfactuals for Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.
    41. Blake LeBaron, 2013. "Heterogeneous Agents and Long Horizon Features of Asset Prices," Working Papers 63, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    42. Igor Pelipas, 2012. "Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistance in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 21, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    43. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
    44. Castle, Jennifer L. & Kurita, Takamitsu, 2021. "A dynamic econometric analysis of the dollar-pound exchange rate in an era of structural breaks and policy regime shifts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    45. Andrew B. Martinez, 2011. "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers 2011-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    46. Pretis, Felix, 2021. "Exogeneity in climate econometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    47. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.
    48. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    49. Guillaume Chevillon & Takamitsu Kurita, 2023. "What Does it Take to Control Global Temperatures? A toolbox for estimating the impact of economic policies on climate," Papers 2307.05818, arXiv.org.
    50. Vassilios Bazinas & Bent Nielsen, 2022. "Causal Transmission in Reduced-Form Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, March.
    51. Vassili Bazinas & Bent Nielsen, 2015. "Causal transmission in reduced-form models," Economics Papers 2015-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    52. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2013. "Forecasting fiscal variables: Only a strong growth plan can sustain the Greek austerity programs - Evidence from simultaneous and structural models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    53. Xiyu Jiao & Felix Pretis, 2022. "Testing the Presence of Outliers in Regression Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1452-1484, December.
    54. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2016. "Outliers and Model Selection: Discussion of the Paper by Søren Johansen and Bent Nielsen," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(2), pages 360-365, June.
    55. Ericsson Neil R., 2016. "Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 377-398, September.

  43. David Hendry & Jennifer L. Castle, 2010. "Model Selection in Under-specified Equations Facing Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 509, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    2. Liqian Cai & Arnab Bhattacharjee & Roger Calantone & Taps Maiti, 2019. "Variable Selection with Spatially Autoregressive Errors: A Generalized Moments LASSO Estimator," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 146-200, September.
    3. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel & Rıdvan Aydın, 2020. "Elasticity Analysis of Fossil Energy Sources for Sustainable Economies: A Case of Gasoline Consumption in Turkey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    5. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    6. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    7. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    8. David F. Hendry, 2020. "First in, First out: Econometric Modelling of UK Annual CO_2 Emissions, 1860–2017," Economics Papers 2020-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    9. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    10. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    11. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
    12. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.

  44. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "A Low-Dimension Portmanteau Test for Non-linearity," Economics Series Working Papers 471, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2014. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Relationships: An Automated Model Selection Approach with Indicator Saturation," Working Papers 1405, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    2. Frank Asche, Atle Oglend, and Petter Osmundsen, 2017. "Modeling UK Natural Gas Prices when Gas Prices Periodically Decouple from the Oil Price," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    3. Jurgen A. Doornik, 2016. "An Example of Instability: Discussion of the Paper by Søren Johansen and Bent Nielsen," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(2), pages 357-359, June.
    4. Barry Harrison & Winston Moore, 2012. "Stock Market Efficiency, Non-Linearity, Thin Trading and Asymmetric Information in MENA Stock Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(1), pages 77-93, March.
    5. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2016. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Textos para discussão 433, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    7. Emmanuel Flachaire & Gilles Hacheme & Sullivan Hu'e & S'ebastien Laurent, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable Machine Learning," Papers 2203.11691, arXiv.org.
    8. Francisco Salas-Molina & Juan A. Rodr'iguez-Aguilar & Joan Serr`a & Montserrat Guillen & Francisco J. Martin, 2016. "Empirical analysis of daily cash flow time series and its implications for forecasting," Papers 1611.04941, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    9. David Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Economics Series Working Papers 529, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    11. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    13. Anne Péguin-Feissolle & Bilel Sanhaji, 2015. "Testing the Constancy of Conditional Correlations in Multivariate GARCH-type Models (Extended Version with Appendix)," Working Papers halshs-01133751, HAL.
    14. David F. Hendry, 2020. "First in, First out: Econometric Modelling of UK Annual CO_2 Emissions, 1860–2017," Economics Papers 2020-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "TIPS and the VIX: Non-linear Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation," Working Papers 1502, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    16. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2010. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Economics Series Working Papers 474, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Anders Bredahl Kock & Timo Teräsvirta, 2010. "Forecasting with nonlinear time series models," CREATES Research Papers 2010-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    21. Sullivan Hué, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable machine learning," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 19, Stata Users Group.
    22. Bendik P. Andersen & Petter E. de Lange, 2021. "Efficiency in the Atlantic salmon futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 949-984, June.
    23. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
    24. Loann David Denis Desboulets, 2018. "A Review on Variable Selection in Regression Analysis," Post-Print hal-01954386, HAL.
    25. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    26. Shahid IQBAL & Maqbool H. SIAL, 2016. "Projections of Inflation Dynamics for Pakistan: GMDH Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 536-559, September.
    27. Mosab I. Tabash & Ezekiel Oseni & Adel Ahmed & Yasmeen Elsantil & Linda Nalini Daniel & Adedoyin Isola Lawal, 2024. "Pathway to a Sustainable Energy Economy: Determinants of Electricity Infrastructure in Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-25, April.
    28. Mukhtarov, Shahriyar & Mikayilov, Jeyhun I. & Maharramov, Shahin & Aliyev, Javid & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2022. "Higher oil prices, are they good or bad for renewable energy consumption: The case of Iran?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 411-419.
    29. Jahyun Koo & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2012. "The Bank of Korea's nonlinear monetary policy rule," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(12), pages 1193-1202, August.
    30. Ericsson Neil R., 2016. "Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 377-398, September.

  45. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2010. "Econometric Modelling of Changing Time Series," Economics Series Working Papers 475, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Yulia Tyumeneva & Yulia Kuzmina, 2012. "The Effect of One Extra Year of Schooling on Pisa Results: a Case of Countries with Different Tracking Systems," HSE Working papers WP BRP 08/EDU/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Paul Plummer & Matthew Tonts, 2013. "Do History and Geography Matter? Regional Unemployment Dynamics in a Resource-Dependent Economy: Evidence from Western Australia, 1984–2011," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(12), pages 2919-2938, December.
    3. Pinto, Hugo, 2011. "The role of econometrics in economic science: An essay about the monopolization of economic methodology by econometric methods," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 436-443, August.

  46. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela Bratu, 2011. "The Assessement Of Uncertainty In Predictions Determined By The Variables Aggregation," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(13), pages 1-31.
    2. Bratu Simionescu Mihaela, 2012. "Variables Aggregation-Source of Uncertainty in Forecasting," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 59(2), pages 1-13, December.

  47. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2008. "Model Selection when there are Multiple Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 407, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Haug, Alfred A. & King, Ian, 2014. "In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 42-52.
    2. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    3. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Hecq, Alain & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-407.
    5. Bernd Hayo & Kentaro Iwatsubo, 2022. "Who Is Successful in Foreign Exchange Margin Trading? New Survey Evidence from Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-14, September.
    6. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    7. Fakhri Hasanov & Fred Joutz & Muhammad Javid, 2021. "Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Discussion Papers ks--2021-dp09, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    8. Sara Muhammadullah & Amena Urooj & Faridoon Khan, 2021. "A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(2), pages 80-92, September.
    9. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. André K. Anundsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2015. "Did US consumers ‘save for a rainy day’ before the Great Recession?," Working Paper 2015/08, Norges Bank.
    11. Roman Frydman & Soren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2021. "Asset Prices Under Knightian Uncertainty," Working Papers Series inetwp172, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    12. Huang, Tao & Fildes, Robert & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "The value of competitive information in forecasting FMCG retail product sales and the variable selection problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 738-748.
    13. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Step-indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 658, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    16. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. Huang, Tao & Fildes, Robert & Soopramanien, Didier, 2019. "Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 459-470.
    18. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Mohamed Mehanaoui & Farhan Akbar, 2014. "The shift-contagion effect of global financial crisis and the European debt crisis on OECD Countries," Working Papers 2014-128, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    19. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga, 2013. "Comparing variable selection techniques for linear regression: LASSO and Autometrics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13080, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    20. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    21. David Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Economics Series Working Papers 529, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    22. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Selecting a Model for Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, June.
    23. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers 2020-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    24. Bucacos, Elizabeth, 2017. "Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy in Uruguay: An MS-VAR Approach," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8275, Inter-American Development Bank.
    25. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    26. Pedro Garcia-del-Bario & J. James Reade, 2021. "Does Certainty on the Winner Diminish the Interest in Sport Competitions? The Case of Formula One," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2021-18, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    27. Janine Aron & Ronald Macdonald & John Muellbauer, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual, Methodological and Policy Issues, and Selected Empirical Findings," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 101-143, January.
    28. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Interpreting estimates of forecast bias," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 563-568.
    29. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
    31. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga & Joel Correa da Rosa, 2017. "Variable selection and forecasting via automated methods for linear models: LASSO/adaLASSO and Autometrics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00917797, HAL.
    32. Guillermo Carlomagno & Antoni Espasa, 2021. "Discovering Specific Common Trends in a Large Set of Disaggregates: Statistical Procedures, their Properties and an Empirical Application," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 641-662, June.
    33. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2015. "Forecasting a large set of disaggregates with common trends and outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    34. Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "U.K. Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 41, Bank of Lithuania.
    35. Igor Pelipas, 2011. "Structural Breaks and Dynamic Characteristics of Inflation and Growth Rates of Monetary Aggregates," BEROC Working Paper Series 15, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    36. M. Mogliani & T. Ferrière, 2016. "Rationality of announcements, business cycle asymmetry, and predictability of revisions. The case of French GDP," Working papers 600, Banque de France.
    37. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    38. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    39. Panday, Anjan, 2015. "Impact of monetary policy on exchange market pressure: The case of Nepal," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-71.
    40. László Kónya & Bekzod Abdullaev, 2015. "Does Ricardian equivalence hold in Australia? A revision based on testing super exogeneity with impulse-indicator saturation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 423-448, September.
    41. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2010. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Economics Series Working Papers 474, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    42. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    43. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2014. "Model selection in under-specified equations facing breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 286-293.
    44. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    45. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    46. Kristine Wika Haraldsen & Ragnar Nymoen & Victoria Sparrman, 2019. "Labour market institutions, shocks and the employment rate," Discussion Papers 901, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    47. Dai, Hongyan & Xiao, Qin & Chen, Songlin & Zhou, Weihua, 2023. "Data-driven demand forecast for O2O operations: An adaptive hierarchical incremental approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    48. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2015. "Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: the Indicator Saturation Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113137, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    49. Marcin Błażejowski & Jacek Kwiatkowski & Paweł Kufel, 2020. "BACE and BMA Variable Selection and Forecasting for UK Money Demand and Inflation with Gretl," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-29, May.
    50. Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, 2023. "Long run non-linearity in CO2 emissions: the I(2) cointegration model and the environmental Kuznets curve," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 899-931, November.
    51. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
    52. Haraldsen, Kristine Wika & Ragnar, Nymoen & Sparrman, Victoria, 2019. "Labour market institutions, shocks and the employment rate," Memorandum 6/2019, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    53. Igor Pelipas, 2012. "Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistance in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 21, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    54. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    55. Pollack, Adam B. & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2022. "Increasing storm risk, structural defense, and house prices in the Florida Keys," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    56. Pellini, Elisabetta, 2021. "Estimating income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand with Autometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    57. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    58. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.
    59. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "From the General to the Specific," Discussion Papers 11-18, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    60. Guillaume Chevillon & Takamitsu Kurita, 2023. "What Does it Take to Control Global Temperatures? A toolbox for estimating the impact of economic policies on climate," Papers 2307.05818, arXiv.org.
    61. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Testing for Structural Stability of Factor Augmented Forecasting Models," Departmental Working Papers 201314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    62. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    63. Roman Frydman & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2022. "Muth's Hypothesis Under Knightian Uncertainty: A Novel Account of Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Series inetwp194, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    64. Alexander HARIN, 2014. "Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 2(2), pages 69-79.
    65. Apergis, Nicholas & Pan, Wei-Fong & Reade, James & Wang, Shixuan, 2023. "Modelling Australian electricity prices using indicator saturation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    66. Ryan-Collins, Josh & Werner, Richard A. & Castle, Jennifer, 2016. "A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-176.
    67. Ericsson Neil R., 2016. "Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 377-398, September.
    68. William Larson, 2015. "Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates," Working Papers 2015-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    69. Harin, Alexander, 2014. "General correcting formulae for forecasts," MPRA Paper 55283, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  48. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett, 2008. "Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 408, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    2. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    5. Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    7. David Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Economics Series Working Papers 529, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How Useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 171-193, February.
    9. Marta Boczoń & Jean-François Richard, 2020. "Balanced Growth Approach to Tracking Recessions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-35, April.
    10. Jitendra Sharma & Subrata Kumar Mitra, 2021. "Asymmetric relationship between tourist arrivals and employment," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 952-970, August.
    11. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," CAMA Working Papers 2020-63, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. David F. Hendry, 2020. "First in, First out: Econometric Modelling of UK Annual CO_2 Emissions, 1860–2017," Economics Papers 2020-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    13. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    15. Chihwa Kao & Lorenzo Trapani & Giovanni Urga, 2012. "Testing for Instability in Covariance Structures," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 131, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    16. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    17. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    18. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    19. Ahumada, H. & Cornejo, M., 2016. "Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-848.
    20. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    21. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Principles from Experience with Forecasting Competitions," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-28, February.
    22. Neil R. Ericsson & Mohammed H. I. Dore & Hassan Butt, 2022. "Detecting and Quantifying Structural Breaks in Climate," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, November.
    23. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    24. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2023. "An artificial intelligence approach to forecasting when there are structural breaks: a reinforcement learning-based framework for fast switching," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1729-1759, October.
    25. Allanson, Paul & Petrie, Dennis, 2013. "Longitudinal methods to investigate the role of health determinants in the dynamics of income-related health inequality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 922-937.
    26. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  49. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2014. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Relationships: An Automated Model Selection Approach with Indicator Saturation," Working Papers 1405, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    2. Nicholas Barr & Alison Johnston, 2010. "Interest Subsidies on Student Loans: A Better Class of Drain," CEE Discussion Papers 0114, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
    3. Neil Shephard, 2010. "Deferred Fees For Universities," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 40-44, June.
    4. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Birru, Yohannes A., 2010. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 478, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 03 Jun 2013.
    8. Barr, Nicholas & Johnston, Alison, 2010. "Interest subsidies on student loans: a better class of drain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28287, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
    10. Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Between Institutions and Global Forces: Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-54, January.
    11. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Wu, Junjie & Howes, Cameron & Ripley, Helen, 2022. "Asymmetric nexus between wages and productivity in the context of the global financial crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 164-175.
    12. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "TIPS and the VIX: Non-linear Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation," Working Papers 1502, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    13. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    14. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
    15. Sohrab Rafiq, 2014. "What Do Energy Prices Tell Us About UK Inflation?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 293-310, April.
    16. Muellbauer, John, 2018. "The Future of Macroeconomics," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    17. David M. Williams, 2021. "Pay and Productivity in Canada: Growing Together, Only Slower than Ever," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 40, pages 3-26, Spring.
    18. Robert G. King, 2008. "The Phillips curve and U.S. macroeconomic policy : snapshots, 1958-1996," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Fall), pages 311-359.

  50. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2007. "AUTOMATIC TESTS for SUPER EXOGENEITY," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 11, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.

    Cited by:

    1. Hildegart Ahumada & Magdalena Cornejo, 2015. "Explaining commodity prices by a cointegrated time series-cross section model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1667-1690, June.
    2. Carlos Santos & Maria Alberta Oliveira, 2010. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1577-1589.
    3. Santos, Carlos, 2008. "Impulse saturation break tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 136-143, February.
    4. Zorica Mladenovic & Bent Nielsen, 2009. "The role of income in money demand during hyper-inflation: the case of Yugoslavia," Economics Papers 2009-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    5. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 895-914, December.
    6. David F. Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2007. "Selecting a Regression Saturated by Indicators," Discussion Papers 07-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    7. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  51. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos, Thiago Carlomagno & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon," Textos para discussão 346, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    2. Costas Milas, 2009. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 168-182, January.
    3. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    5. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2008. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Working Paper 2008/22, Norges Bank.
    6. Torre Cepeda Leonardo E. & Flores Segovia Miguel A., 2020. "Private Banking Credit and Economic Growth in Mexico: A State Level Panel Data Analysis 2005-2018," Working Papers 2020-17, Banco de México.
    7. Garcés Díaz Daniel, 2020. "On the Drivers of Inflation in Different Monetary Regimes," Working Papers 2020-16, Banco de México.

  52. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2007. "A Low-Dimension Collinearity-Robust Test for Non-linearity," Economics Series Working Papers 326, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  53. Søren Johansen & David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2007. "Selecting a Regression Saturated by Indicators," CREATES Research Papers 2007-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    Cited by:

    1. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2009. "Testing the neocon agenda: Democracy in resource-rich societies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 293-308, April.
    2. Bhattacharyya, Sambit & Hodler, Roland, 2010. "Natural resources, democracy and corruption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 608-621, May.

  54. Hendry, David & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 7_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    2. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 13221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Cai, Charlie X. & Kyaw, Khine & Zhang, Qi, 2012. "Stock index return forecasting: The information of the constituents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 72-74.
    5. Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2006. "Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area: Assessment and Role for Informing Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2006/197, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gomez, Miguel I. & Gonzalez, Eliana & Melo, Luis F. & Torres, Jose L., 2006. "Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21181, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Giacomini, Raffaella, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 10201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2015. "Short- and mid-term forecasting of baseload electricity prices in the UK: The impact of intra-day price relationships and market fundamentals," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/04, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    9. Mossfeldt, Marcus & Stockhammar, Pär, 2016. "Forecasting Goods and Services Inflation in Sweden," Working Papers 146, National Institute of Economic Research.
    10. Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
    11. Baltagi, Badi H., 2013. "Panel Data Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 995-1024, Elsevier.
    12. Leon, Jorge, 2012. "A Disaggregate Model and Second Round Effects for the CPI Inflation in Costa Rica," MPRA Paper 44484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    13. Mihaela Bratu, 2011. "The Assessement Of Uncertainty In Predictions Determined By The Variables Aggregation," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(13), pages 1-31.
    14. Eliana González & Miguel I. Gómez & Luis F. Melo & José Luis Torres, 2006. "Forecasting Food Price Inflation in Developing Countries with Inflation Targeting Regimes: the Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 2735, Banco de la Republica.
    15. Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beck, Günter W., 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," Working Paper Series 681, European Central Bank.
    16. Baltagi, Badi H., 2006. "Forecasting with panel data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    18. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
    19. Daniel Dias, 2006. "Measuring the Importance of the Uniform Nonsynchronization Hypothesis," Working Papers w200603, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    20. Espasa, Antoni & Mayo-Burgos, Iván, 2013. "Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 718-732.
    21. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi & Bayat , Saeed & Karami , Hooman, 2013. "Common Factors of CPI Sub-aggregates and Forecast of Inflation," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, October.
    22. Bratu Simionescu Mihaela, 2012. "Variables Aggregation-Source of Uncertainty in Forecasting," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 59(2), pages 1-13, December.
    23. Juan de Dios Tena & Antoni Espasa & Gabriel Pino, 2010. "Forecasting Spanish Inflation Using the Maximum Disaggregation Level by Sectors and Geographical Areas," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 33(2), pages 181-204, April.
    24. Barrera, Carlos, 2013. "El sistema de predicción desagregada: Una evaluación de las proyecciones de inflación 2006-2011," Working Papers 2013-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    25. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    26. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2011. "Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 239-250.
    27. Kristie M. Engemann & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2008. "Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 15-29.
    28. Joseph P. Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "The Time‐Series Properties Of Uk Inflation: Evidence From Aggregate And Disaggregate Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(1), pages 33-47, February.
    29. Marcus Cobb, 2009. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation From Disaggregate Components," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 545, Central Bank of Chile.
    30. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers 41/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    31. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    32. Matthias Burgert & Stephane Dees, 2009. "Forecasting World Trade: Direct Versus “Bottom-Up” Approaches," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 385-402, July.
    33. Zeng, Jing, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does boosting help to select the most informative predictors?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100310, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    34. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
    35. Jing Zeng, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does Boosting Help to Select the Most Relevant Predictors?," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-20, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    36. Emil Stavrev, 2010. "Measures of underlying inflation in the euro area: assessment and role for informing monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 217-239, February.
    37. Jing Zeng, 2015. "Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    38. Jing Zeng, 2016. "Combining country-specific forecasts when forecasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 415-444, May.
    39. Amankwah, Ernest & Atta Sarfo, Prince, 2019. "The causal linkages among money growth, inflaion and interest rates in Ghana," MPRA Paper 96485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010. "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.
    42. Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area and a Comparison with the US," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 338, Society for Computational Economics.

  55. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Byron Botha & Rulof Burger & Kevin Kotze & Neil Rankin & Daan Steenkamp, 2022. "Big data forecasting of South African inflation," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2022-03, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    2. Colin Bermingham & Antonello D’Agostino, 2014. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 765-788, March.
    3. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets," NBER Working Papers 14601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.
    5. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi‐Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, September.
    6. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2016. "Discovering common trends in a large set of disaggregates: statistical procedures and their properties," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1519, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2009. "Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/17, European University Institute.
    9. Kholodilin Konstantin Arkadievich & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, June.
    10. Mahmut Gunay, 2016. "Forecasting Turkish GDP Growth : Bottom-Up vs Direct?," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1622, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
    12. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2015. "Forecasting a large set of disaggregates with common trends and outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    13. Tena Horrillo, Juan de Dios & Espasa, Antoni & Pino, Gabriel, 2008. "Forecasting Spanish inflation using information from different sectors and geographical areas," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws080101, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    14. Moosa, Imad A. & Vaz, John, 2018. "Direct and Indirect Forecasting of Cross Exchange Rates," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(2), pages 173-190.
    15. Giacomo Sbrana, 2007. "Testing for Model Selection in Predicting Aggregate Variables," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 66(1), pages 3-28, March.

  56. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin & Coughlan, Guy D. & Epstein, David & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa, 2011. "Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 355-367, May.
    2. Awaworyi, Sefa & Ugur, Mehmet & Yew, Siew Ling, 2015. "Does government size affect per-capita income growth? A Hierarchical meta-regression analysis," MPRA Paper 68006, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2015.
    3. Parida, Meenakshi & Madheswaran, S., 2021. "Does ownership matter? Empirical evidence from the performance of Indian state and private coal mining companies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Rafaty, R. & Dolphin, G. & Pretis, F., 2020. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20116, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Massimiliano Kaucic, 2009. "Predicting EU Energy Industry Excess Returns on EU Market Index via a Constrained Genetic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 173-193, September.
    6. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," UC3M Working papers. Economics we081810, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    7. Churchill, Sefa Awawoyi & Yew, Siew Ling & Ugur, Mehmet, 2015. "Effects of government education and health expenditures on economic growth: a meta-analysis," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 14072, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    8. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2015. "The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
    9. Armah, Stephen E., 2008. "Establishing the Presence of a Risk Premium in the Cocoa Futures Market: An Econometric Analysis," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6778, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Mehmet Ugur, 2014. "Corruption'S Direct Effects On Per-Capita Income Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 472-490, July.
    11. David Colander, 2009. "Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and the European CVAR Approach to Macroeconometrics," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0912, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    12. Jung, Alexander, 2020. "An empirical analysis of loan supply and demand in the euro area," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 187-201.
    13. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Krzysztof Rybiński, 2023. "Anti-pandemic restrictions, uncertainty and sentiment in seven countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-27, February.
    14. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 2017. "Measuring agency costs and the value of investment opportunities of US bank holding companies with stochastic frontier estimation," Chapters, in: Jacob A. Bikker & Laura Spierdijk (ed.), Handbook of Competition in Banking and Finance, chapter 11, pages 205-229, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Misagh Mottaghi & Jonas Nordström & Salar Haghighatafshar & Karin Jönsson & Mattias Kärrholm & Catharina Sternudd, 2023. "Caring for Blue-Green Solutions (BGS) in Everyday Life: An Investigation of Recreational Use, Neighborhood Preferences and Willingness to Pay in Augustenborg, Malmö," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, January.
    16. Tennant, David, 2011. "Why do people risk exposure to Ponzi schemes? Econometric evidence from Jamaica," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 328-346, July.
    17. Shi, Song & Yang, Zan & Tripe, David & Zhang, Huan, 2015. "Uncertainty and new apartment price setting: A real options approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 574-591.
    18. Furuoka, Fumitaka, 2015. "The CO2 emissions–development nexus revisited," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1256-1275.
    19. Alicia García-Herrero & Daniel Santabárbara, 2005. "Does China have an impact on foreign direct investment to Latin America?," Working Papers 0517, Banco de España.
    20. Carlos Gustavo Machicado Salas, 2018. "De Las Causas Próximas A Las Causas Profundas Del Crecimiento Económico De Bolivia Entre 1950 Y 2015," Development Research Working Paper Series 09/2018, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    21. Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad, 2016. "A small scale forecasting and simulation model for Azerbaijan (FORSAZ)," MPRA Paper 76348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. McQuinn, Kieran, 2020. "Property prices and Covid-19 related administrative closures: What are the implications?," Papers WP661, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    23. Sam Jones, 2020. "Testing the Technology of Human Capital Production: A General‐to‐Restricted Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1429-1455, December.
    24. Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski & Brendan John Lambe & Keshab Shrestha, 2020. "Do Stock Market Fluctuations Affect Suicide Rates?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 737-765, December.
    25. Colander, David C., 2008. "Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and Empirical Work," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    26. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov, 2020. "Revisiting Energy Demand Relationship: Theory and Empirical Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, April.
    27. Daniele Tori & Özlem Onaran, 2016. "The effects of financialization on investment: Evidence from firm-level data for the UK," Working Papers PKWP1601, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    28. Wolf, Christian, 2009. "Does ownership matter? The performance and efficiency of State Oil vs. Private Oil (1987-2006)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2642-2652, July.
    29. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-33.
    30. Dardanoni, Valentino & Modica, Salvatore & Peracchi, Franco, 2011. "Regression with imputed covariates: A generalized missing-indicator approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 362-368, June.
    31. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara & Hecq, Alain, 2013. "A general to specific approach for constructing composite business cycle indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 367-374.
    32. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2007. "General-to-specific or specific-to-general modelling? An opinion on current econometric terminology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 319-324, January.
    33. Mateusz Kijewski & Szymon Lis & Michał Woźniak & Maciej Wysocki, 2021. "Don’t Worry, Be Happy – But Only Seasonally," Working Papers 2021-12, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    34. Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
    35. Carlos Guerrero de Lizardi, 2022. "Teorías del crecimiento cara a cara (Englobamiento estadístico: hacia una especificación general)," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(3), pages 1-24, Julio - S.
    36. Belman, Dale. & Wolfson, Paul J., 2016. "What does the minimum wage do in developing countries? : A review of studies and methodologies," ILO Working Papers 994893283402676, International Labour Organization.
    37. Sefa Awaworyi & Siew Ling Yew, 2014. "Government Transfers and Growth: Is there Evidence of Genuine Effect?," Monash Economics Working Papers 40-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    38. Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu & Ahmed, Maruf Yakubu & Leirvik, Thomas, 2022. "Trade volume affects bitcoin energy consumption and carbon footprint," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    39. Li, Xiao-Ming & Qiu, Mei, 2021. "The joint effects of economic policy uncertainty and firm characteristics on capital structure: Evidence from US firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    40. Wolf, C, 2008. "Does Ownership Matter? The Performance and Efficiency of State Oil vs. Private Oil (1987-2006)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0828, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    41. Woo, Kai-Yin & Lee, Shu-Kam & Chan, Alan, 2014. "Non-linear adjustments to intranational PPP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 360-371.
    42. Lan Nguyen, Thi Mai & Papyrakis, Elissaios & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2021. "Publication bias in the price effects of monetary policy: A meta-regression analysis for emerging and developing economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 567-583.
    43. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Econometric reduction theory and philosophy," UC3M Working papers. Economics we091005, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    44. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Barry Williams, 2005. "What Determines Differences in Foreign Bank Efficiency? Australian Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 1587, CESifo.
    45. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail, 2016. "Exchange-rate variability and industry trade flows between Malaysia and Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 453-478, June.
    46. Leschinski, Christian & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2019. "Model order selection in periodic long memory models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 78-94.
    47. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "From the General to the Specific," Discussion Papers 11-18, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    48. Awaworyi Churchill, S. & Yew, S.L., 2017. "Are government transfers harmful to economic growth? A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 270-287.
    49. Sophie van Huellen, 2018. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Speculative Effects on Commodity Futures Curves," Working Papers 211, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    50. Cui, Jin & In, Francis & Maharaj, Elizabeth Ann, 2016. "What drives the Libor–OIS spread? Evidence from five major currency Libor–OIS spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 358-375.
    51. Jeyhun Mikayilov & Fred Joutz & Fakhri Hasanov, 2019. "Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the Price and Income Elasticities Constant?," Discussion Papers ks--2019-dp81, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    52. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

  57. Guillaume Chevillon & David F. Hendry, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Papers 2004-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Buncic, Daniel & Gisler, Katja I.M., 2016. "Global equity market volatility spillovers: A broader role for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1317-1339.
    2. Protić, Milan & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Petković, Dalibor & Abbasi, Almas & Mat Kiah, Miss Laiha & Unar, Jawed Akhtar & Živković, Ljiljana & Raos, Miomir, 2015. "Forecasting of consumers heat load in district heating systems using the support vector machine with a discrete wavelet transform algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 343-351.
    3. Jari Hännikäinen, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," Working Papers 1494, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    4. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2009. "Multi-step forecasting in emerging economies: An investigation of the South African GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 602-628, July.
    5. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. A Clements & D Preve, 2019. "A Practical Guide to Harnessing the HAR Volatility Model," NCER Working Paper Series 120, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    7. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    8. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    9. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    10. Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kuzin, Vladimir, 2009. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    12. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Markov-switching MIDAS models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 09-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    14. Bauwens, Luc & Chevillon, Guillaume & Laurent, Sébastien, 2023. "We modeled long memory with just one lag!," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    15. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi‐Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, September.
    16. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2010. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(2), pages 192-220, June.
    17. Edda Claus, 2011. "Seven Leading Indexes of New Zealand Employment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 76-89, March.
    18. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2014. "Heterogeneous Agents, the Financial Crisis and Exchange Rate Predictability," Economics Working Paper Series 1436, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Oct 2015.
    19. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," Borradores de Economia 458, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. ""Weak" trends for inference and forecasting in finite samples," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    21. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
    22. Souhaib Ben Taieb & Rob J Hyndman, 2012. "Recursive and direct multi-step forecasting: the best of both worlds," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    23. Jalal Shiri & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Ozgur Kisi & Sepideh Karimi & Seyyed M Bateni & Seyed Hossein Hosseini Nezhad & Arsalan Hashemi, 2016. "Prediction of Water-Level in the Urmia Lake Using the Extreme Learning Machine Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5217-5229, November.
    24. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    25. Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Working Papers 0707, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
    26. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    27. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, August.
    28. Jana Eklund & Sune Karlsson, 2007. "Forecast Combination and Model Averaging Using Predictive Measures," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 329-363.
    29. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
    30. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
    31. Ching Wai Chiu & Bjorn Eraker & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernan D. Seoane, 2011. "Estimating VAR's sampled at mixed or irregular spaced frequencies : a Bayesian approach," Research Working Paper RWP 11-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    32. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2015. "Forecasting GDP over the Business Cycle in a Multi-Frequency and Data-Rich Environment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(3), pages 360-384, June.
    33. Kisi, Ozgur & Shiri, Jalal & Karimi, Sepideh & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Motamedi, Shervin & Petković, Dalibor & Hashim, Roslan, 2015. "A survey of water level fluctuation predicting in Urmia Lake using support vector machine with firefly algorithm," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 270(C), pages 731-743.
    34. Gür Ali, Özden & Gürlek, Ragıp, 2020. "Automatic Interpretable Retail forecasting with promotional scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1389-1406.
    35. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.
    36. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank.
    37. Schumacher Christian, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
    38. Nikolay Robinzonov & Gerhard Tutz & Torsten Hothorn, 2012. "Boosting techniques for nonlinear time series models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(1), pages 99-122, January.
    39. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," Borradores de Economia 4247, Banco de la Republica.
    40. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    41. Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "A Comparison of Multi-step GDP Forecasts for South Africa," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    42. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
    43. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    44. Christian Schumacher, 2007. "Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 271-302.
    45. John Haywood & Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson, 2009. "A test for improved multi‐step forecasting," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(6), pages 682-707, November.
    46. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
    47. Taewoon Kong & Dongguen Choi & Geonseok Lee & Kichun Lee, 2021. "Air Pollution Prediction Using an Ensemble of Dynamic Transfer Models for Multivariate Time Series," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-17, January.
    48. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2011. "Quantile regression for dynamic panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 142-157, September.
    49. Gur Ali, Ozden & Pinar, Efe, 2016. "Multi-period-ahead forecasting with residual extrapolation and information sharing — Utilizing a multitude of retail series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 502-517.
    50. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2017. "Robustness of Multistep Forecasts and Predictive Regressions at Intermediate and Long Horizons," ESSEC Working Papers WP1710, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    51. Schumacher, Christian, 2016. "A comparison of MIDAS and bridge equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-270.
    52. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2015. "Forecasting copper prices with dynamic averaging and selection models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-38.
    53. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    54. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    55. Johannes Mayr & Dirk Ulbricht, 2007. "VAR Model Averaging for Multi-Step Forecasting," ifo Working Paper Series 48, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    56. Meenakshi Narayan & Ann Majewicz Fey, 2020. "Developing a novel force forecasting technique for early prediction of critical events in robotics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-34, May.
    57. Schumacher, Christian & Breitung, Jörg, 2008. "Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-398.
    58. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "MIDAS versus mixed-frequency VAR: nowcasting GDP in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    59. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  58. David F. Hendry, 2004. "Unpredictability and the Foundations of Economic Forecasting," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 27, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. WAN, Shui-Ki & WANG, Shin-Huei & WOO, Chi-Keung, 2012. "Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012039, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
    3. J. M. Kargbo, 2007. "Forecasting agricultural exports and imports in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2069-2084.
    4. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
    5. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank.
    8. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2007. "Automatic Leading Indicators (ALIs) versus Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs): Comparison of Inflation and GDP growth Forecasting," EcoMod2007 23900072, EcoMod.

  59. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Papers 2004-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2015. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Working Papers hal-04141421, HAL.
    2. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2014. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Relationships: An Automated Model Selection Approach with Indicator Saturation," Working Papers 1405, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    3. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    4. Christoph Hanck, 2016. "I just ran two trillion regressions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2037-2042.
    5. James Rockey & Jonathan Temple, 2015. "Growth Econometrics for Agnostics and True Believers," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/656, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    6. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," UC3M Working papers. Economics we081810, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    7. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2014. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-22, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Andrade, Joaquim Pinto, 2016. "Inflation targeting on output growth: A pulse dummy analysis of dynamic macroeconomic panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 145-169.
    9. Blaise Gnimassoun & Joseph Keneck Massil, 2016. "Determinants of corruption: Can we put all countries in the same basket?," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. Paul Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2006. "European Urban Growth: Now for Some Problems of Spaceless and Weightless Econometrics," ERSA conference papers ersa06p156, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Alfranca, Óscar & Diaz-Balteiro, Luis & Herruzo, A. Casimiro, 2009. "Technical innovation in Spain's wood-based industry: The role of environmental and quality strategies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 161-168, May.
    12. Ronelle Burger, & Stan du Plessis, 2006. "Examining the Robustness of Competing Explanations of Slow Growth in African Countries," Discussion Papers 06/02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    13. Durlauf,S.N. & Kourtellos,A. & Tan,C.M., 2005. "Empirics of growth and development," Working papers 16, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    14. Sara Muhammadullah & Amena Urooj & Faridoon Khan, 2021. "A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(2), pages 80-92, September.
    15. Andreas Sachs & Frauke Schleer, 2013. "Labour Market Performance in OECD Countries: A Comprehensive Empirical Modelling Approach of Institutional Interdependencies. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 7," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46851, April.
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  60. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2004. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Papers 2004-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Hecq, Alain & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-407.
    2. Felix Pretis, 2022. "Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 115-144, September.
    3. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2013. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Working Papers 2013_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Doppelhofer, Gernot & Weeks, Melvyn, 2011. "Robust Growth Determinants," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 3/2011, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    5. Carlos Santos & Maria Alberta Oliveira, 2010. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1577-1589.
    6. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Step-indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 658, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Roman Matousek & Chris Stewart, 2010. "EU Banks Rating Assignments: Is there Heterogeneity between New and Old Member Countries?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1009, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. David Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 337-339, April.
    9. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Matousek, Roman & Stewart, Chris, 2012. "Ratings assignments: Lessons from international banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1593-1606.
    10. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett, 2008. "Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 408, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. David Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Economics Series Working Papers 529, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. David E. Giles, 2022. "Some Consequences of Including Impulse-Indicator Dummy Variables in Econometric Models," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(2), pages 329-336, June.
    13. Christian M. HAFNER & Arie PREMINGER, 2016. "The Effect of Additive Outliers on Fractional Unit Root Tests," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2762, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    14. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Birru, Yohannes A., 2010. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 478, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 03 Jun 2013.
    15. SANTOS, Carlos & OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta, 2007. "Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    16. Santos, Carlos, 2008. "Impulse saturation break tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 136-143, February.
    17. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. David E. Giles, 2017. "On the Inconsistency of Instrumental Variables Estimators for the Coefficients of Certain Dummy Variables," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 15-26, March.
    21. David F. Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2007. "Selecting a Regression Saturated by Indicators," Discussion Papers 07-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    22. Andrew B. Martinez, 2011. "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers 2011-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    23. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    24. William Larson, 2015. "Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates," Working Papers 2015-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

  61. David F. Hendry, 2004. "Robustifying Forecasts from Equilibrium-Correction Models," Economics Papers 2004-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. J. M. Kargbo, 2007. "Forecasting agricultural exports and imports in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2069-2084.

  62. Hendry, David F & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 105, Royal Economic Society.

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    1. David Hendry & Lea Schneider & Jason E. Smerdon, 2016. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 780, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    3. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2014. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Relationships: An Automated Model Selection Approach with Indicator Saturation," Working Papers 1405, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    4. Lein, Sarah M. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nerlich, Carolin, 2008. "How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 227-248, March.
    5. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "A banklevel analysis of interest rate passthrough in South Africa," Working Papers 11027, South African Reserve Bank.
    6. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    7. Bernd Hayo & Kentaro Iwatsubo, 2022. "Who Is Successful in Foreign Exchange Margin Trading? New Survey Evidence from Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-14, September.
    8. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2015. "Are unleaded gasoline and diesel price adjustments symmetric? A comparison of the four largest EU retail fuel markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 281-291.
    9. Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2010. "Heuristic Optimization Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Model Selection. Application on the Russian Innovative Performance," Working Papers 027, COMISEF.
    10. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
    11. Sean Muller, 2012. "Econometric methods and Reichenbach's principle," SALDRU Working Papers 85, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    12. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," UC3M Working papers. Economics we081810, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    13. Uwe Dulleck & Markus Schaffner & Benno Torgler, 2014. "Heartbeat and Economic Decisions: Observing Mental Stress among Proposers and Responders in the Ultimatum Bargaining Game," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-9, September.
    14. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2015. "The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
    15. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2013. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Working Papers 2013_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    16. David H. Bernstein & Andrew B. Martinez, 2021. "Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Rahul Verma & Rajesh Mohnot, 2023. "Relative Impact of the U.S. Energy Market Sentiments on Stocks and ESG Index Returns: Evidence from GCC Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 290-300, March.
    18. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2008. "The day-to-day interbank market, volatility, and central bank intervention in a developing economy," MPRA Paper 15648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Arusha Cooray & Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Does corruption throw sand into or grease the wheels of financial sector development?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 111-133, October.
    20. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Fildes, Robert, 2004. "Levels, Differences And Ecms - Principles For Improved Econometric Forecasting," Working Paper Series 14501, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
    21. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2010. "Discussion of The Forward Search: Theory and Data Analysis by Anthony C. Atkinson, Marco Riani, and Andrea Ceroli," CREATES Research Papers 2010-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    22. Hassler, Uwe, 2010. "Testing regression coefficients after model selection through sign restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 220-223, May.
    23. Lehkonen, Heikki & Heimonen, Kari, 2015. "Democracy, political risks and stock market performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 77-99.
    24. Ackah, Ishmael, 2015. "Accounting for the effect of exogenous non-Economic variables on natural gas demand in oil producing African countries," MPRA Paper 81553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    26. Josh Ryan-Collins, 2015. "Is Monetary Financing Inflationary? A Case Study of the Canadian Economy, 1935-75," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_848, Levy Economics Institute.
    27. Stephan B. Bruns, 2013. "Identifying Genuine Effects in Observational Research by Means of Meta-Regressions," Jena Economics Research Papers 2013-040, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    28. Genaro Sucarrat & Alvaro Escribano, 2012. "Automated Model Selection in Finance: General-to-Specific Modelling of the Mean and Volatility Specifications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(5), pages 716-735, October.
    29. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," Working Papers 1009, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    30. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign debt markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    31. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2008. "Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 368-385.
    32. Kock, Anders Bredahl & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2014. "Forecasting performances of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007–2009," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 616-631.
    33. Escribano, Álvaro & Guasch, J. Luis & Pena, Jorge, 2019. "Investment Climate Effects on Alternative Firm-Level Productivity Measures," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28639, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    34. Julia Campos & David F. Hendry & Hans‐Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Consistent Model Selection by an Automatic Gets Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 803-819, December.
    35. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of Climate Change on the Macroeconomy in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 40037, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    36. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2008. "Immobilienkrise in den Vereinigten Staaten: Historischer Vergleich und Implikationen für den Konjunkturverlauf," Kiel Discussion Papers 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    37. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2014. "The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 181-192.
    38. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    39. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga, 2013. "Comparing variable selection techniques for linear regression: LASSO and Autometrics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13080, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    40. Ivan Savin, 2010. "A comparative study of the Lasso-type and heuristic model selection methods," Working Papers 042, COMISEF.
    41. Ackah, Ishmael, 2017. "Analysis OF Energy Efficiency Practices of SMEs in Ghana: An application of Product Generational Dematerialisation," MPRA Paper 77484, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Angulo, Ana M. & Mur, Jesús, 2011. "The Likelihood Ratio Test of Common Factors under Non-Ideal Conditions," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 21, pages 37-52.
    43. George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Forecasting Us Inflation Using Dynamic General-To-Specific Model Selection," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 151-167, April.
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    45. Peter Jensen, 2010. "Testing the null of a low dimensional growth model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 193-215, February.
    46. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    47. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    48. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2014. "Outlier detection algorithms for least squares time series regression," CREATES Research Papers 2014-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    49. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    50. Neil R. Ericsson & Erica L. Reisman, 2012. "Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting," Working Papers 2012-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    51. Steve Lawford & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2008. "The Finite-Sample E ects of VAR Dimensions on OLS Bias, OLS Variance, and Minimum MSE Estimators," Working Paper series 13_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    52. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Papers 2004-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    53. Billio, Monica & Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio & Riedel, Max, 2016. "Which market integration measure?," SAFE Working Paper Series 159, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
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    55. David F. Hendry & Søren Johansen, 2011. "The Properties of Model Selection when Retaining Theory Variables," Discussion Papers 11-25, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    56. Eduardo Acosta-González & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, 2007. "Model selection via genetic algorithms illustrated with cross-country growth data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 313-337, September.
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    85. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2020. "Identifying the Causal Role of CO2 during the Ice Ages," Economics Series Working Papers 898, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    86. Søren Johansen & Lukasz Gatarek, 2014. "Optimal hedging with the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," CREATES Research Papers 2014-40, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    87. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    88. Ferreira, Alex Luiz & de Almeida Prado, Fernando Pigeard & da Silveira, Jaylson Jair, 2009. "Flex cars and the alcohol price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 382-394, May.
    89. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2007. "Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium," ESSEC Working Papers DR 07020, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    90. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    91. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
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    93. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2011. "Asymptotic theory for iterated one-step Huber-skip estimators," CREATES Research Papers 2011-40, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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    95. Barrera, Carlos, 2013. "El sistema de predicción desagregada: Una evaluación de las proyecciones de inflación 2006-2011," Working Papers 2013-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    96. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 895-914, December.
    97. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    98. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments, interdependence, crises, and currency wars: an empirical assessment," Textos para discussão 348, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    99. Koutroumanidis, Theodoros & Zafeiriou, Eleni & Arabatzis, Garyfallos, 2009. "Asymmetry in price transmission between the producer and the consumer prices in the wood sector and the role of imports: The case of Greece," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 56-64, January.
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    101. Geert Bekaert & Arnaud Mehl, 2017. "On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma," NBER Working Papers 23124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    103. Jennifer Castle & Xiaochuan Qin & W. Robert Reed, 2011. "Using Model Selection Algorthims to Obtain Reliable Coefficient Estimates," Working Papers in Economics 11/03, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    104. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Hassan, Gazi, 2009. "How to Increase the Long Run Growth Rate of Bangladesh?," MPRA Paper 14470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    105. DUo Qin & Yimeng Liu, 2013. "Modelling Scale Effect in Crosssection Data:The Case of Hedonic Price Regression," Working Papers 184, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    106. Majocchi Antonio & Pavione Enrica, 2002. "International franchising in Italy: trends and perspectives," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0215, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    107. João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte & Marta Simões, 2011. "Inequality and Growth in Portugal: a time series analysis," GEMF Working Papers 2011-11, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    108. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad, 2019. "The Advancement in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Economic Development: A Panel Analysis," MPRA Paper 93476, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    109. Faruk Balli & Hassan Ghassan & Essam H. Jeefri, 2021. "Sukuk and bond spreads," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(3), pages 529-543, July.
      • Balli, Faruk & Ghassan, Hassan B. & Al-Jefri, Essam H., 2020. "Sukuk and bond spreads," MPRA Paper 106729, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jan 2021.
    110. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
    111. Jerg Gutmann & Fabio Padovano & Stefan Voigt, 2019. "Perception vs. Experience: Explaining Differences in Corruption Measures Using Microdata," CESifo Working Paper Series 8027, CESifo.
    112. Niels Framroze Møller & Laura Mørch Andersen & Lars Gårn Hansen & Carsten Lynge Jensen, 2018. "Can pecuniary and environmental incentives via SMS messaging make households adjust their intra-day electricity demand to a fluctuating production?," IFRO Working Paper 2018/06, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    113. P. Dorian Owen & Clayton R. Weatherston, 2004. "Uncertainty of Outcome and Super 12 Rugby Union Attendance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 5(4), pages 347-370, November.
    114. Richard T. Curtin, 2022. "A New Theory of Expectations," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 239-259, November.
    115. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    116. David F. Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2007. "Selecting a Regression Saturated by Indicators," Discussion Papers 07-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    117. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects of Public Investments in the Portuguese Economy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-24, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    118. Alex Luiz Ferreira., 2009. "Is it Risk? An Automated Approach to Explain the ex ante UIP Deviations of Brazil," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 46(133), pages 51-66.
    119. Hoornweg, V., 2013. "Some Tools for Robustifying Econometric Analyses," Econometric Institute Research Papers 50163, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    120. Alan Martina, 2007. "A Class of Poverty Traps: A Theory and Empirical Tests," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2007-482, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    121. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions for emerging market economies: The case of Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1730-1738, July.
    122. Neil R. Ericsson & Mohammed H. I. Dore & Hassan Butt, 2022. "Detecting and Quantifying Structural Breaks in Climate," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, November.
    123. Frydman, Roman & Stillwagon, Joshua R., 2018. "Fundamental factors and extrapolation in stock-market expectations: The central role of structural change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 189-198.
    124. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    125. John B. Guerard, 2024. "Sir David Hendry: An Appreciation from Wall Street and What Macroeconomics Got Right," Working Papers 2024-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Feb 2024.
    126. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Sub-sample Model Selection Procedures in Gets Modelling," Economics Papers 2003-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    127. Sucarrat, Genaro & Escribano, Álvaro, 2009. "Automated financial multi-path GETS modelling," UC3M Working papers. Economics we093620, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    128. James Reade & Genaro Sucarrat, 2016. "General-to-Specific (GETS) Modelling And Indicator Saturation With The R Package Gets," Economics Series Working Papers 794, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    129. Ackah, Ishmael & Asomani, Mcomari, 2015. "Modelling Renewable Energy Economy in Ghana with Autometrics," MPRA Paper 63870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    130. Fernando Pigeard de Almeida Prado & Alex Luiz Ferreira Jaylson Jair da Silveira, 2007. "The Alcohol Price and the Flex Cars," EcoMod2007 23900067, EcoMod.
    131. Bernhard Brümmer & Olaf Korn & Kristina Schlüßler & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani, 2016. "Volatility in Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils Markets: Drivers and Spillovers," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 685-705, September.
    132. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with exogenous predictors: As good as it GETS?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    133. Mukhtarov, Shahriyar & Mikayilov, Jeyhun I., 2023. "Could financial development eliminate energy poverty through renewable energy in Poland?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    134. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    135. Gaytán González Alejandro & González García Jesús R., 2006. "Structural Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Mexico: A Non-linear VAR Approach," Working Papers 2006-06, Banco de México.
    136. Reinhold Heinlein & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2011. "Effects of monetary policy on the $/£ exchange rate. Is there a 'delayed overshooting puzzle'?," Studies in Economics 1124, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    137. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
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    144. Cunha, Ronan & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Automatic model selection for forecasting Brazilian stock returns," Textos para discussão 398, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    145. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    146. Ryan-Collins, Josh & Werner, Richard A. & Castle, Jennifer, 2016. "A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-176.
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  63. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Sub-sample Model Selection Procedures in Gets Modelling," Economics Papers 2003-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer L. Castle, 2005. "Evaluating PcGets and RETINA as Automatic Model Selection Algorithms," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 837-880, December.
    2. Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B., 2008. "Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model," Working papers 222, Banque de France.

  64. David Hendry & Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Model Identification and Non-unique Structure," Economics Papers 2002-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Richiardi, 2003. "The Promises and Perils of Agent-Based Computational Economics," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 29, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    2. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Estimating structural macroeconomic shocks through long-run recursive restrictions on vector autoregressive models: the problem of identification," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 229-244.

  65. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Maurin, Laurent & Drechsel, Katja, 2008. "Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity," Working Paper Series 925, European Central Bank.
    2. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    4. Pablo Pincheira, 2008. "Combining Tests of Predictive Ability Theory and Evidence for Chilean and Canadian Exchange Rates," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 459, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2021-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Magnus, J.R. & Wang, W. & Zhang, Xinyu, 2012. "WALS Prediction," Discussion Paper 2012-043, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Christopher Gibbs, 2015. "Forecast Combination, Non-linear Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 2015-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    8. Favero, Carlo A. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Vrontos, Spyridon, 2015. "Hedge fund return predictability; To combine forecasts or combine information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 103-122.
    10. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Pooling-based Data Interpolation and Backdating," Working Papers 299, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    11. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Marcellino, Massimliano, 2004. "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 359-372.
    13. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    14. Dell'Aquila, Rosario & Ronchetti, Elvezio, 2006. "Stock and bond return predictability: the discrimination power of model selection criteria," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1478-1495, March.
    15. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2012. "Modelling the impact of aggregate financial shocks external to the Chinese economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    16. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
    17. -, 2010. "Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2010," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2990 edited by Eclac.
    18. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    19. Wilson, Kevin J., 2017. "An investigation of dependence in expert judgement studies with multiple experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 325-336.
    20. Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
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    161. Schumacher, Christian, 2016. "A comparison of MIDAS and bridge equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-270.
    162. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    163. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Monitoring the Economy of the Euro Area: A Comparison of Composite Coincident Indexes," Working Papers 319, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    164. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    165. Asad Zaman, 2017. "Lessons in Econometric Methodology: The Axiom of Correct Specification," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 9(2), pages 50-68, September.
    166. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    167. Carlos Henrique Dias Cordeiro de Castro & Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube, 2023. "Forecasting inflation time series using score‐driven dynamic models and combination methods: The case of Brazil," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 369-401, March.
    168. Graham Elliott, 2017. "Forecast combination when outcomes are difficult to predict," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 7-20, August.
    169. Zongwu Cai & Chaoqun Ma & Xianhua Mi, 2020. "Realized Volatility Forecasting Based on Dynamic Quantile Model Averaging," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202016, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2020.
    170. Johannes Mayr & Dirk Ulbricht, 2007. "VAR Model Averaging for Multi-Step Forecasting," ifo Working Paper Series 48, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    171. Chen Zhuo & Yang Yuhong, 2007. "Time Series Models for Forecasting: Testing or Combining?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 56-90, March.
    172. Adam Elbourne & Henk Kranendonk & Rob Luginbuhl & Bert Smid & Martin Vromans, 2008. "Evaluating CPB's published GDP growth forecasts; a comparison with individual and pooled VAR based forecasts," CPB Document 172, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    173. Yin, Libo & Yang, Qingyuan, 2016. "Predicting the oil prices: Do technical indicators help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 338-350.
    174. Frank A.G. den Butter & Pieter W. Jansen, 2008. "Beating the Random Walk: a Performance Assessment of Long-term Interest Rate Forecasts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-102/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    175. Chikamatsu, Kyosuke & Hirakata, Naohisa & Kido, Yosuke & Otaka, Kazuki, 2021. "Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    176. Sabaj, Ernil & Kahveci, Mustafa, 2018. "Forecasting tax revenues in an emerging economy: The case of Albania," MPRA Paper 84404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    177. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    178. Stefania D'Amico, 2005. "Density selection and combination under model ambiguity: an application to stock returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    179. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    180. Ard Reijer & Andreas Johansson, 2019. "Nowcasting Swedish GDP with a large and unbalanced data set," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1351-1373, October.
    181. Sancetta, Alessio, 2007. "Online forecast combinations of distributions: Worst case bounds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 621-651, December.
    182. Ryan T. Ball & Eric Ghysels, 2018. "Automated Earnings Forecasts: Beat Analysts or Combine and Conquer?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4936-4952, October.
    183. Magnus, J.R. & Wang, W. & Zhang, Xinyu, 2012. "WALS Prediction," Other publications TiSEM 7715e942-b446-4985-8216-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    184. Byron Botha & Tim Olds & Geordie Reid & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2021. "Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 526-554, December.
    185. Stefania D'Amico, 2004. "Density Estimation and Combination under Model Ambiguity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 273, Society for Computational Economics.
    186. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  66. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. KANGASSALO Pertti & TAKALA Kari, 2010. "Measuring the Usefulness of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations in Finland," EcoMod2003 330700076, EcoMod.
    2. Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203.
    3. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2015. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Moosa, Imad A. & Vaz, John J., 2016. "Cointegration, error correction and exchange rate forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 21-34.
    5. Keck, Alexander & Raubold, Alexander, 2006. "Forecasting trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2006-05, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    6. Shea, Paul, 2015. "Red herrings and revelations: does learning about a new variable worsen forecasts?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 395-406.
    7. Erik Olsen & Gavin Fay & Sarah Gaichas & Robert Gamble & Sean Lucey & Jason S Link, 2016. "Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    9. Carlos Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2012. "Inflation forecasting in Angola: a fractional approach," CEsA Working Papers 103, CEsA - Centre for African and Development Studies.
    10. Zhang, YunQian, 2022. "Influence of stock market factors on the natural resources dependence for environmental change: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Degiannakis, Stavros, 2017. "The one-trading-day-ahead forecast errors of intra-day realized volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1298-1314.
    12. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi, 2012. "Implications of Cointegration for Forecasting: A Review and an Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(1), pages 87-118, October.
    13. Oscar Claveria & Salvador Torra, 2013. "“Forecasting Business surveys indicators: neural networks vs. time series models”," IREA Working Papers 201320, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2013.
    14. Shahzad Ahmad & Farooq Pasha, 2015. "A Pragmatic Model for Monetary Policy Analysis I: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 1-42.
    15. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
    16. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Self-organizing map analysis of agents’ expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”," AQR Working Papers 201508, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Mar 2015.
    17. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu, 2016. "After crisis scenarios for Europe: alternative evolutions of structural adjustments," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(1), pages 81-101.
    18. Ahmet DEMIR & AtabekSHADMANOV & CumhurAYDINLI & Okan ERAY, 2015. "DESIGNING A FORECAST MODEL FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH OF JAPAN USING COMPETITIVE (HYBRID ANN VS MULTIPLE REGRESSION) MODELS Abstract : Artificial neural network models have been already used on many differen," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 4(2), pages 1-21, july.
    19. Harrison, Richard & Kapetanios, George & Yates, Tony, 2005. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 595-607.
    20. Roberto Camagni & Roberta Capello, 2012. "Globalization and Economic Crisis: How Will the Future of European Regions Look?," Chapters, in: Roberta Capello & Tomaz Ponce Dentinho (ed.), Globalization Trends and Regional Development, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
    22. Huawei, Tian, 2022. "Does gross domestic product, inflation, total investment, and exchanges rate matter in natural resources commodity prices volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    23. Knedlik, Tobias & Scheufele, Rolf, 2007. "Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2007, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    24. Kostas Bithas & Chrysostomos Stoforos, 2006. "Estimating Urban Residential Water Demand Determinants and Forecasting Water Demand for Athens Metropolitan Area, 2000-2010," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 4(1), pages 47-59.
    25. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 1026, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    26. George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Forecasting Us Inflation Using Dynamic General-To-Specific Model Selection," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 151-167, April.
    27. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik, 2015. "Evaluating the Performance of Inflation Forecasting Models of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 43-78.
    28. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
    29. Dimitrios Papastamos & Fotis Mouzakis & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "Rationality and Momentum in Real Estate Investment Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    30. Roberto Camagni & Roberta Capello (ed.), 2011. "Spatial Scenarios in a Global Perspective," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14523.
    31. Jon Huntley & Eric Miller, 2009. "An Evaluation of CBO Forecasts: Working Paper 2009-02," Working Papers 41195, Congressional Budget Office.
    32. Patrick Mcallister & Graeme Newell & George Matysiak, 2008. "Agreement and Accuracy in Consensus Forecasts of the UK Commercial Property Market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1-22, June.
    33. Diego Nocetti & William T. Smith, 2006. "Why Do Pooled Forecasts Do Better Than Individual Forecasts Ex Post?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(36), pages 1-7.
    34. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Times of Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Oliveira, Fernando Nascimento de, 2016. "Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil Using Probabilistic Models," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 70(3), September.
    36. Pat McAllister & Graeme Newell & George Matysiak, 2005. "Analysing Uk Real Estate Market Forecast Disagreement," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-13, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    37. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 637-661, October.
    38. Jeff Schott & Jugal Kalita, 2011. "Neuro‐fuzzy time‐series analysis of large‐volume data," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 39-57, January.
    39. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    40. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu & Ugo Fratesi, 2016. "The costs of the economic crisis: which scenario for the European regions?," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(1), pages 113-130, February.
    41. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić, 2015. "A note on forecasting euro area inflation: leave- $$h$$ h -out cross validation combination as an alternative to model selection," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 23(1), pages 205-214, March.
    42. David F. Hendry, 2004. "Unpredictability and the Foundations of Economic Forecasting," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 27, Econometric Society.
    43. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    44. Friedrich Fritzer & Gabriel Moser & Johann Scharler, 2002. "Forecasting Austrian HICP and its Components using VAR and ARIMA Models," Working Papers 73, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    45. Fernando N. de Oliveira, 2015. "Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil using Probabilistic Models," Working Papers Series 402, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    46. Jorge Sepúlveda-Velásquez & Pablo Tapia-Griñen & Boris Pastén-Henríquez, 2023. "Financial effects of natural disasters: a bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2691-2710, September.
    47. Papastamos, Dimitrios & Matysiak, George & Stevenson, Simon, 2015. "Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-152.
    48. Wu, Hong, 2022. "Trade openness, green finance and natural resources: A literature review," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    49. Gantungalag Altansukh & Denise R. Osborn, 2022. "Using structural break inference for forecasting time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 1-41, July.
    50. Roy Batchelor, 2007. "Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," ifo Working Paper Series 39, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    51. Narayana, N.S.S. & Ghosh, Probal P., 2005. "Macroeconomic Simulation Results for India based on VEC/VAR Models," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 60(4), pages 1-40.
    52. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    53. Dimitrios Papastamos & George Matysiak & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    54. Emmanuel Paroissien, 2020. "Forecasting bulk prices of Bordeaux wines using leading indicators," Post-Print hal-02408202, HAL.
    55. Peter Vlaar & Ard den Reijer, 2004. "Forecasting inflation: An art as well as a science!," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 148, Society for Computational Economics.
    56. Pat McAllister & Graeme Newell & George Matysiak, 2005. "An Evaluation Of The Performance Of UK Real Estate Forecasters," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-23, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    57. Mellár, Tamás, 2016. "Szolgálólányból királycsináló - avagy az ökonometria makroökonómiai térhódítása? [From maidservant to king-maker - or the macroeconomic advance of econometrics?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 285-306.
    58. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 598, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 29 Dec 2005.
    59. Duarte, Claudia & Rua, Antonio, 2007. "Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 941-953, November.
    60. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
    61. David F. Hendry, 2004. "Robustifying Forecasts from Equilibrium-Correction Models," Economics Papers 2004-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    62. Manfred Deistler & Klaus Neusser, 2004. "Prognose uni- und multivariater Zeitreihen," Diskussionsschriften dp0401, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    63. Ming-Yuan Leon Li, 2008. "Hybrid versus highbred: combined economic models with time-series analyses," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 637-647.
    64. Mouchart, Michel & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2005. "Clustered panel data models: an efficient approach for nowcasting from poor data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 577-594.
    65. Paul Gallimore & Pat McAllister, 2005. "The Production and Consumption of Commercial Real Estate Market Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    66. Patrick McAllister & Paul Kennedy & Stephen Lee, 2007. "Data Dilemmas in Forecasting European Office Market Rents," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2007-10, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    67. Tobias Knedlik & Rolf Scheufele, 2008. "Forecasting Currency Crises: Which Methods Signaled The South African Crisis Of June 2006?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 367-383, September.
    68. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    69. Vincze, János & Bíró, Anikó & Elek, Péter, 2007. "Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével [Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 774-799.
    70. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010. "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    71. Olivier Basdevant & David Hargreaves, 2003. "Modelling structural change: the case of New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    72. Adam Elbourne & Henk Kranendonk & Rob Luginbuhl & Bert Smid & Martin Vromans, 2008. "Evaluating CPB's published GDP growth forecasts; a comparison with individual and pooled VAR based forecasts," CPB Document 172, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    73. Peter Öhman & Bo Söderberg & Ola Uhlin, 2011. "Accuracy of Swedish property appraisers’ forecasts of net operating income," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 103-122, November.
    74. Frank A.G. den Butter & Pieter W. Jansen, 2008. "Beating the Random Walk: a Performance Assessment of Long-term Interest Rate Forecasts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-102/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    75. Heilemann Ullrich, 2004. "Besser geht’s nicht – Genauigkeitsgrenzen von Konjunkturprognosen / As Good as it Gets – Limits of Accuracy of Macroeconomic Short Term Forecasts," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(1-2), pages 51-64, February.
    76. Affuso, Antonio & Camagni, Roberto & Capello, Roberta & Fratesi, Ugo, 2011. "Escenarios para las regiones europeas y las provincias del Arco Latino [Scenarios for european regions and the Latin Arc provinces]," MPRA Paper 36877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    77. Capistrán Carlos, 2007. "Optimality Tests for Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Working Papers 2007-14, Banco de México.
    78. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2013. "Property Market Modelling and Forecasting: A Case for Simplicity," ERES eres2013_10, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    79. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    80. Pierre-Olivier Beffy & Xavier Bonnet & Brieuc Monfort & Matthieu Darracq-Pariès & Jérôme Henry, 2003. "MZE, un modèle macroéconométrique pour la zone euro ; suivi d'un commentaire de Jérome Henry," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 367(1), pages 3-37.

  67. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. J. M. Kargbo, 2007. "Forecasting agricultural exports and imports in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2069-2084.
    2. Martinez, Andrew B., 2015. "How good are US government forecasts of the federal debt?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 312-324.
    3. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2007. "Accuracy of GDP growth forecasts for transition countries: Ten years of forecasting assessed," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 29-45.
    4. Andrew B. Martinez, 2011. "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers 2011-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

  68. Beyer, A. & Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F., 2000. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/10, European University Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jerome, 2004. "The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 833-875, September.
    2. Mardi Dungey, 2010. "Discussion of The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Alkhareif, Ryadh & Barnett, William A., 2012. "Divisia monetary aggregates for the GCC countries," MPRA Paper 39539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2010. "Investigating M3 money demand in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 111-122, February.
    5. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Working Papers 237, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. Giacomo Sbrana, 2008. "On the use of area-wide models in the Euro-zone," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 17(4), pages 499-518, October.
    7. Marcellino, Massimliano, 2004. "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 359-372.
    8. Heather M. Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise R Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "Financial Integration and the Construction of Historical Financial Data for the Euro Area," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 152, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    9. LEBRE DE FREITAS Miguel, 2010. "Currency Substitution and Money Demand in Euroland," EcoMod2003 330700087, EcoMod.
    10. Michael Murach, 2019. "Global Determinants of the Gold Price: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 198-214, February.
    11. Lütkepohl Helmut, 2011. "Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 107-133, February.
    12. Petri Mäki-Fränti, 2007. "The information content of the divisia monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 151-176, July.
    13. Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise R. Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Constructing Historical Euro Area Data," CAMA Working Papers 2007-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 339-351.
    15. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong Are the Linkages?," Working Paper / FINESS 7.4A, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    17. Emanuel Mönch & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(1), pages 43-69.
    18. Belke, Ansgar & Bordon, Ingo G. & Volz, Ulrich, 2012. "Effects of Global Liquidity on Commodity and Food Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 323, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    19. Kilian, Lutz & Alquist, Ron & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    45. Josh Stillwagon & Peter Sullivan, 2020. "Markov switching in exchange rate models: will more regimes help?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 413-436, July.
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    2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Are Shocks To Energy Consumption Permanent Or Temporary? Evidence From 182 Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 06/05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    3. Matias Piaggio & Emilio Padilla & Carolina Roman, 2015. "The long-run relationship between CO2 emissions and economic activity in a small open economy: Uruguay 1882 - 2010," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 15-11, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
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    5. Gao Lu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2015. "Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    6. Jana Juriová, 2016. "Money Market Equilibrium in the Czech Republic," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 321-334.
    7. Eva Liljeblom & Sabur Mollah & Patrik Rotter, 2015. "Do dividends signal future earnings in the Nordic stock markets?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 493-511, April.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
    9. Fakhri Hasanov, 2012. "The impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports. Is there an asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium?," Working Papers 2012-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    10. Said M. Alkhatib, 2016. "The dynamic response patterns of output to credit: the case of Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 11-25.
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    13. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
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    20. Céline Gauthier & David Tessier, 2002. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence," Staff Working Papers 02-31, Bank of Canada.
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    23. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Manuel Monge, 2019. "Energy Consumption in the GCC Countries: Evidence on Persistence," CESifo Working Paper Series 7470, CESifo.
    24. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin, 2004. "The impact of the Asian crisis on the behavior of US and international petroleum prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 135-160, January.
    25. Marei Elbadri & Eralp Bektaş, 2022. "Dynamic relationship among the bank stability, oil, and gold prices: Evidence from the Islamic banks operating in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2153-2168, April.
    26. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov & Svetlana A. Dolinskaya, 2008. "Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test," Papers 0811.0896, arXiv.org.
    27. Crôtte, Amado & Noland, Robert B. & Graham, Daniel J., 2010. "An analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4445-4456, August.
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    36. Chang, Yoosoon & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y. & Park, Sungkeun, 2020. "Evaluating trends in time series of distributions: A spatial fingerprint of human effects on climate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 274-294.
    37. Cristopher Spencer & Paul Temple, 2013. "Standards, Learning and Growth in Britain 1901-2009," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0613, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
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    40. Finger, Robert & Listorti, Giulia & Tonini, Axel, 2015. "The cheese processing aid in Switzerland: ex-post and ex-ante evaluations," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211633, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    41. Ryan, David L. & Plourde, Andre, 2002. "Smaller and smaller? The price responsiveness of nontransport oil demand," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 285-317.
    42. Abu-Alkheil, Ahmad & Khan, Walayet A. & Parikh, Bhavik & Mohanty, Sunil K., 2017. "Dynamic co-integration and portfolio diversification of Islamic and conventional indices: Global evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 212-224.
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    46. Huawei, Tian, 2022. "Does gross domestic product, inflation, total investment, and exchanges rate matter in natural resources commodity prices volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
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    50. Derek W. Bunn & Carlo Fezzi, 2007. "Interaction of European Carbon Trading and Energy Prices," Working Papers 2007.63, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    51. Takamitsu Kurita, 2010. "Time Series Analysis of Transatlantic Market Interactions: Evidence from Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 9(2), pages 157-173, August.
    52. Fragiskos Archontakis & Rocco Mosconi, 2021. "Søren Johansen and Katarina Juselius: A Bibliometric Analysis of Citations through Multivariate Bass Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-28, August.
    53. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2016. "The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms," Discussion Papers 16-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    54. Kitov, Ivan & KItov, Oleg, 2013. "Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?," MPRA Paper 50239, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    228. Guoxing Zhang & Zhenhua Zhang & Xiulin Gao & Lean Yu & Shouyang Wang & Yingluo Wang, 2017. "Impact of Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction Policy Means Coordination on Economic Growth: Quantitative Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, April.
    229. Jose Maria Fernandez-Crehuet & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Cristina Martí Barco, 2020. "Unemployment and Fertility: A Long Run Relationship," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 1177-1196, December.
    230. Chitose, Atsushi & Weaver, Robert D., 2007. "Dynamics of Slaughter Weight Response to Market Price Changes for Japanese Beef Cattle," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 9, pages 1-14.
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    233. Crôtte, Amado & Noland, Robert B. & Graham, Daniel J., 2009. "Is the Mexico City metro an inferior good?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 40-45, January.
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    242. Ibrahim Abdelrasoul Mohammed Belal & Sumaya Awad Khader Ahmed & Faouzi Hedi Boujedra, 2021. "The Causal Relationship between, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A Dynamic Causality Test," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 333-340.
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  71. David Hendry & Jurgen Doornik, 2000. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economics Series Working Papers 4, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Alkhareif, Ryadh & Barnett, William A., 2012. "Divisia monetary aggregates for the GCC countries," MPRA Paper 39539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Bordon, Ingo G. & Volz, Ulrich, 2012. "Effects of Global Liquidity on Commodity and Food Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 323, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Michael Funke, 2001. "Money Demand in Euroland," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20112, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2010. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of asset price adjustment: A global view," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1933-1945, August.
    6. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter, 2007. "Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 37, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Does global liquidity drive commodity prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 224-234.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Ingo G. Bordon & Torben W. Hendricks, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Global Liquidity and Commodity Price Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 971, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth & Ralph Setzer, 2008. "Sowing the seeds for the subprime crisis: does global liquidity matter for housing and other asset prices?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 403-424, December.

  72. David Hendry, 2000. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation, and the Lucas Critique," Economics Papers 2002-W8, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Ajit Karnik & Cedwyn Fernandes, 2009. "Natural resource dependence: a macroeconometric model for the United Arab Emirates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(9), pages 1157-1174.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Destefanis, Sergio & Fragetta, Matteo & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2021. "Does one size fit all in the Euro Area? Some counterfactual evidence," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 05/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit, revised 2021.
    4. Olson, Eric & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "An evaluation of ECB policy in the Euro's big four," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 203-213.
    5. Angel Asensio, 2008. "The growing evidence of Keynes's methodology advantage and its consequences within the four macro-markets framework," Post-Print halshs-00189221, HAL.
    6. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    7. Angel Asensio, 2012. "On Keynes’s Seminal Innovation and Related Essential Features: Revisiting the Notion of Equilibrium in The General Theory," Chapters, in: Thomas Cate (ed.), Keynes’s General Theory, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Angel Asensio, 2013. "Teaching Keynes’s theory to neoclassically formed minds," Chapters, in: Jesper Jespersen & Mogens Ove Madsen (ed.), Teaching Post Keynesian Economics, chapter 10, pages 163-186, Edward Elgar Publishing.

  73. David Hendry, 2000. "Modelling UK Inflation over the Long Run," Economics Series Working Papers 2, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Bowdler, 2004. "Openness and the output-inflation tradeoff," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 7, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

  74. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    2. David F. Hendry, 2002. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation and the Lucas Critique," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 21-40.
    3. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi‐Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, September.
    4. Fernando N. de Oliveira, 2015. "Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil using Probabilistic Models," Working Papers Series 402, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Christian Ragacs & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Why did we fail to predict GDP during the last cycle? A breakdown of forecast errors for Austria," Working Papers 151, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

  75. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting With Difference-Stationary And Trend-Stationary Models," Economic Research Papers 268798, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Hamid Baghestani, 2009. "Evaluating random walk forecasts of exchange rates," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 171-181, July.
    2. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    3. Shahzad Ahmad & Farooq Pasha, 2015. "A Pragmatic Model for Monetary Policy Analysis I: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 1-42.
    4. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2016. "Forecasting with a Random Walk," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(6), pages 539-564, December.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E., 2010. "Averaging estimators for autoregressions with a near unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 142-155, September.
    6. Pablo Pincheira & Andrés Gatty, 2014. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with International Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 723, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1397, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Clements, Michael P., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 469-482, December.
    9. David Griffiths, 2004. "The big problem of forecasting small change," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2195-2207.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. ""Weak" trends for inference and forecasting in finite samples," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    12. Luca Nocciola, "undated". "Finite sample forecast properties and window length under breaks in cointegrated systems," Discussion Papers 19/07, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    13. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
    14. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Carlos A. Medel & Michael Pedersen & Pablo M. Pincheira, 2016. "The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 120-146, June.
    17. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik, 2015. "Evaluating the Performance of Inflation Forecasting Models of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 43-78.
    18. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia-Pascual, 2005. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Working Papers 122005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    19. Corradi, V. & Swanson, N.R., 2000. "A Consistent Test for Nonlinear Out of Sample Predictive Accuracy," Discussion Papers 0012, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    20. J. Doyne Farmer & Francois Lafond, 2015. "How predictable is technological progress?," Papers 1502.05274, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    21. Chunming Yuan, 2008. "The Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Determinants: Time-Varying Transitional Dynamics," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-114, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
    22. Yan-Leung Cheung & Yin-Wong Cheung & Alan T. K. Wan, 2009. "A High-Low Model of Daily Stock Price Ranges," Working Papers 032009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    23. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
    24. David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2002. "Unit roots and double smooth transitions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 675-683.
    25. Lafond, François & Bailey, Aimee Gotway & Bakker, Jan David & Rebois, Dylan & Zadourian, Rubina & McSharry, Patrick & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2018. "How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 104-117.
    26. Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2016. "The Evasive Predictive Ability of Core Inflation," MPRA Paper 68704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    28. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "What trends in energy efficiencies? Evidence from a robust test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 702-708, May.
    29. Varang Wiriyawit, 2014. "Trend Mis-specifications and Estimated Policy Implications in DSGE Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-615, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    30. Clements, Michael P. & Kim, Jae H., 2007. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3580-3594, April.
    31. K. G. Sorokozherdyev & K. A. Khodosov, 2020. "The Influence of the Regional Sectoral Structure on the Socio-Economic Development of Primorye Region," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 19(1), pages 60-78.

  76. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Christian Müller-Kademann, 2009. "Biased Estimation in a Simple Extension of a Standard Error Correction Model," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(I), pages 37-60, March.
    2. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2022. "On the role of stablecoins in cryptoasset pricing dynamics," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, December.
    3. Rafaty, R. & Dolphin, G. & Pretis, F., 2020. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20116, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Chebbi, Houssem Eddine & Lachaal, Lassaad, 2007. "Agricultural sector and economic growth in Tunisia: Evidence from co-integration and error correction mechanism," MPRA Paper 9101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jacqueline Pradel & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models with Purely Exogenous Long‐Run Paths," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 629-653, December.
    6. Jacint Balaguer & Tatiana Florica & Jordi Ripollés, 2015. "Foreign trade and economic growth in Spain (1900–2012): the role of energy imports," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(3), pages 359-375, December.
    7. David H. Bernstein & Andrew B. Martinez, 2021. "Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Jorge Lorca, 2021. "Capital Flows and Emerging Markets Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 898, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Rault, Christophe, 2005. "Further Results on Weak Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 25(2), November.
    10. Daniel Garces-Diaz, 2004. "How Does the Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination Look When It Really Works?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 60, Econometric Society.
    11. Amèvi Rocard Kouwoaye, 2019. "Trade tax reforms and poverty in developing countries: Why do some countries benefit and others lose?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-66, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2059-2094.
    13. Reza Anglingkusumo, 2005. "Stability of the Demand for Real Narrow Money in lndonesia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-051/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Robert Darko Osei & Oliver Morrissey & Tim Lloyd, 2005. "The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ghana," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-61, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Neil R. Ericsson & Erica L. Reisman, 2012. "Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting," Working Papers 2012-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    16. Christophe RAULT, 2007. "Une synthèse de l'exogénéité dans les modèles Vectoriels à Correction d'Erreurs," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1723, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    17. Filip, Ondrej & Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Food versus fuel: An updated and expanded evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.
    18. Anna Pajor, 2011. "A Bayesian Analysis of Exogeneity in Models with Latent Variables," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(2), pages 49-73, June.
    19. Heimonen, Kari, 2001. "Substituting a substitute currency: The case of Estonia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    20. Kębłowski, Piotr & Welfe, Aleksander, 2012. "A risk-driven approach to exchange rate modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1473-1482.
    21. Heimonen, Kari, 2008. "Substituting a substitute currency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 66-84.
    22. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
    23. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2002. "A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 233-254.
    24. Aliyu Rafindadi Sanusi, 2011. "Foreign Aid Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: Are There Dutch Disease Effects in Ghana?," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 28-59, December.
    25. Batini, Nicoletta, 2002. "Euro area inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 201, European Central Bank.
    26. K. Moses Tule & O. Taiwo Ajilore, 2016. "On the stability of the money multiplier in Nigeria: Co-integration analyses with regime shifts in banking system liquidity," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1187780-118, December.
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    65. Harald Van Heerde & Kristiaan Helsen & Marnik G. Dekimpe, 2007. "The Impact of a Product-Harm Crisis on Marketing Effectiveness," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(2), pages 230-245, 03-04.
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    Cited by:

    1. David H. Bernstein & Andrew B. Martinez, 2021. "Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Błażejowski, Marcin & Kufel, Paweł & Kufel, Tadeusz & Kwiatkowski, Jacek & Osińska, Magdalena, 2018. "Model selection for modeling the demand for narrow money in transitional economies," MPRA Paper 90458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Magdalena Osinska & Marcin Blazejowski & Pawel Kufel & Tadeusz Kufel & Jacek Kwiatkowski, 2020. "Narrow Money Demand in Indonesia and in Other Transitional Economies – Model Selection and Forecasting," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1291-1311.
    6. Petrevski, Goran & Jovanovski, Kiril, 2010. "Demand for money in Macedonia," SEER Journal for Labour and Social Affairs in Eastern Europe, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 13(1), pages 121-136.
    7. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Characterizing the Financial Cycle: Evidence from a Frequency Domain Analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113143, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Assenmacher, Katrin & Beyer, Andreas, 2020. "A cointegration model of money and wealth," Working Paper Series 2365, European Central Bank.
    9. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Igor Pelipas, 2011. "Structural Breaks and Dynamic Characteristics of Inflation and Growth Rates of Monetary Aggregates," BEROC Working Paper Series 15, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    12. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Crises and Emissions: New Empirical Evidence from a Large Sample," Working Papers REM 2019/83, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Eliasson Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Detecting Equilibrium Correction with Smoothly Time-Varying Strength," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, July.
    15. Barlow, David, 2023. "The stability of UK households Divisia money balances," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 451-459.
    16. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July.
    17. Timo Teräsvirta, 2017. "Nonlinear models in macroeconometrics," CREATES Research Papers 2017-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute.
    19. Hans Christian Kongsted, 2002. "Testing the Nominal-to-Real Transformation," Discussion Papers 02-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    20. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Pei-Fen & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2007. "Testing linearity in a cointegrating STR model for the money demand function: International evidence from G-7 countries," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 293-302.
    21. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    Cited by:

    1. S.P. Jayasooriya, 2009. "A Dynamic Equilibrium between Inflation and Minimum Wages in Sri Lanka," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 3(2), pages 113-132, April.
    2. Henning, Steven A. & Cardona, Hugo, 2000. "An Analysis Of Factors Influencing Adoption Of Bmps Among Louisiana Sugarcane Producers," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21838, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. David Hendry & Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2000. "Wages, Prices, Productivity, Inflation and Unemployment in Italy 1970-1994," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0911, Econometric Society.
    5. Michael Ehrmann, 2000. "Comparing monetary policy transmission across European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 58-83, March.
    6. Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. ""Weak" trends for inference and forecasting in finite samples," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Sideris, Dimitris A. & Voumvaki, Fragiska K., 2005. "Testing long-run purchasing power parity under exchange rate targeting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 959-981, October.
    8. Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestiwch, "undated". "The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run," Economics Papers W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    9. Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 1999. "Un Examen Empirico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3676, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Pedro Francisco Páez, 2005. "Are the Washington Consensus Policies Sustainable? Game Theoretical Assessment for the Case of Ecuador," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2005_07, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    11. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    12. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestwich, 1998. "The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878–1993," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 289-324, March.
    13. Prasanna Gai & Gavin Cameron & Kang Yong Tan, 2009. "Sovereign Risk in the Classical Gold Standard Era," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(271), pages 401-416, December.
    14. Keunkwan Ryu & Kuo-yuan Liang, 1992. "Relationship of Forecast Encompassing to Composite Forecasts with Simulations and an Application," UCLA Economics Working Papers 668, UCLA Department of Economics.
    15. Aida Díaz & Clara Riba, 1999. "Catalan government popularity. An example of economic effects on sub-national government support," Economics Working Papers 406, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    16. Peter Berck & Sandra Hoffmann, 2002. "Assessing the Employment Impacts of Environmental and Natural Resource Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 22(1), pages 133-156, June.
    17. Maria M. De Mello & Natércia Fortuna, 2005. "Testing Alternative Dynamic Systems for Modelling Tourism Demand," CEF.UP Working Papers 0501, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    18. Amir Kia, 2005. "Overnight Monetary Policy in the United States: Active or Interest-Rate Smoothing?," Carleton Economic Papers 05-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
    19. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Small-system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 359-370.
    21. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2017. "Robustness of Multistep Forecasts and Predictive Regressions at Intermediate and Long Horizons," ESSEC Working Papers WP1710, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    22. Morón, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2002. "Reglas de política monetaria para economías financieramente vulnerables," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 8, pages 49-76.
    23. David F. Hendry & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Monfardini, 2008. "Foreword," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 711-714, December.
    24. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

  79. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Multi-Step Estimation For Forecasting," Economic Research Papers 268696, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1997. "The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 463-475, December.
    2. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2015. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3540-3558, July.
    3. Buncic, Daniel & Gisler, Katja I.M., 2016. "Global equity market volatility spillovers: A broader role for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1317-1339.
    4. Guillaume Chevillon, 2006. "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 257, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Jari Hännikäinen, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," Working Papers 1494, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    6. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2009. "Multi-step forecasting in emerging economies: An investigation of the South African GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 602-628, July.
    7. Marcellino, Massimliano, 2004. "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 359-372.
    8. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Coen Pretorius, 2004. "A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price," Development and Comp Systems 0409054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    10. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    11. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    12. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    13. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    14. David Hendry & Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi‐Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, September.
    16. Proietti, Tommaso, 2011. "The Multistep Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition," Working Papers 09/2011, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    17. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2014. "Heterogeneous Agents, the Financial Crisis and Exchange Rate Predictability," Economics Working Paper Series 1436, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Oct 2015.
    18. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," Borradores de Economia 458, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    19. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
    20. Osborn, Denise R. & Heravi, Saeed & Birchenhall, C. R., 1999. "Seasonal unit roots and forecasts of two-digit European industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-47, February.
    21. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "A Comparison of Methods for the Construction of Composite Coincident and Leading Indexes for the UK," Working Papers 590, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    22. Ralf Brüggemann & Jing Zeng, 2015. "Forecasting Euro-Area Macroeconomic Variables Using a Factor Model Approach for Backdating," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 22-39, February.
    23. Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Working Papers 0707, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
    24. Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Instability and non-linearity in the EMU," Working Papers 211, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    25. Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Peter Hansen, 2020. "How Should Parameter Estimation Be Tailored to the Objective?," Post-Print hal-03331109, HAL.
    26. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Forecasting Euro-Area Variables with German Pre-EMU Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-065, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    27. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
    28. Michael ARTIS & Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2001. "Factor Forecasts for the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/15, European University Institute.
    29. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 637-661, October.
    30. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
    31. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "A Simple Benchmark for Forecasts of Growth and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Direct and iterated multistep AR methods for difference stationary processes," MPRA Paper 10859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Forecast Pooling for Short Time Series of Macroeconomic Variables," CEPR Discussion Papers 3313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Heravi, Saeed & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, C. R., 2004. "Linear versus neural network forecasts for European industrial production series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 435-446.
    35. Clements, Michael P., 2016. "Real-time factor model forecasting and the effects of instability," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 661-675.
    36. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.
    37. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank.
    38. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Rachel Sebudde, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-17, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    39. Hassani, Hossein & Webster, Allan & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Heravi, Saeed, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Tourist arrivals using optimal Singular Spectrum Analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 322-335.
    40. Ahumada, H. & Cornejo, M., 2016. "Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-848.
    41. Tommaso Proietti, 2005. "Forecasting and signal extraction with misspecified models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 539-556.
    42. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    43. Kauppi, Heikki & Virtanen, Timo, 2021. "Boosting nonlinear predictability of macroeconomic time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 151-170.
    44. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Coen Pretorius, 2004. "A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price Index: application to South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    45. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," Borradores de Economia 4247, Banco de la Republica.
    46. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    47. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2009. "Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 7183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    48. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 33, European Central Bank.
    49. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
    50. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
    51. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2017. "Robustness of Multistep Forecasts and Predictive Regressions at Intermediate and Long Horizons," ESSEC Working Papers WP1710, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    52. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "Multi-sector inflation forecasting - quarterly models for South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-27, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    53. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2015. "Forecasting copper prices with dynamic averaging and selection models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-38.
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    1. Luintel, Kul B & Xu, Yongdeng, 2013. "Testing weak exogeneity in multiplicative error models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/6, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    2. Ketenci, Natalya & Uz, Idil, 2010. "Determinants of current account in the EU: the relation between internal and external balances in the new members," MPRA Paper 27466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. Enrique Moral-Benito & Luis Serven, 2013. "Testing weak exogeneity in cointegrated panels," Working Papers 1307, Banco de España.
    5. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2016. "Discovering common trends in a large set of disaggregates: statistical procedures and their properties," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1519, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Hendry, David F., 1997. "On congruent econometric relations : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 163-190, December.
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    9. Idil UZ, 2010. "DETERMINANTS OF CURRENT ACCOUNT: The Relation between Internal and External Balances in Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
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    11. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Sara E. Bennett & Mahendhiran Nair & John H. Hall, 2016. "Bond Market Development, Economic Growth and Other Macroeconomic Determinants: Panel VAR Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 175-201, June.
    12. Rudra P. Pradhan, Mak B. Arvin, John H. Hall and Neville R. Norman, 2017. "Insurance Market Development and Macroeconomic Interactions in Twenty-Six Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 23-57, December.
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  81. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

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    2. Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2003. "The Role of Common Cyclical Features for Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03002, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
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    1. Altissimo, Filippo & Gaiotti, Eugenio & Locarno, Alberto, 2005. "Is money informative? Evidence from a large model used for policy analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 285-304, March.
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    3. Frank Browne & Gabriel Fagan & Jerome Henry, 2005. "Money Demand in EU Countries: A Survey," Macroeconomics 0503004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    5. Franz Seitz & Lucas Devigne & Raymond de Pastor, 2022. "Different Motives for Holding Cash in France: an Analysis of the Net Cash Issues of the Banque de France," Working papers 888, Banque de France.
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    8. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "A Roller Coaster Ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of wheat price," Discussion Papers 145556, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    9. Arranz, Miguel A. & Escribano, Álvaro, 2000. "Outliers robust ECM cointegration test based on the trend components," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10142, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
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    1. J James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2010. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Discussion Papers 10-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    2. Eric Ghysels & Clive W.J. Granger & Pierre L. Siklos, 1995. "Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data Filtering Process?," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-19, CIRANO.
    3. Eric Ghysels & J. Isaac Miller, 2013. "Testing for Cointegration with Temporally Aggregated and Mixed-frequency Time Series," Working Papers 1307, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 07 May 2014.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Neil R. Ericsson & Sunil Sharma, 1996. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," International Finance Discussion Papers 559, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Muhd-Zulkhibri Abdul Majid, 2004. "Reassessing The Stability of Broad Money Demand in Malaysia," Macroeconomics 0405020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Milas, Costas & Otero, Jesus G., 1999. "Identification And Estimation Of A Labour Market Model For The Tradeables Sector: The Greek Case," Economic Research Papers 269250, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    8. Jesus Otero & Jeremy Smith, 2002. "Seasonal adjustment and cointegration," Borradores de Investigación 3483, Universidad del Rosario.
    9. Maghyereh, Aktham, 2003. "Financial Liberalization and Stability Demand for Money in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Jordan," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).

  85. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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    1. Athanasopoulos, George & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2011. "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 713, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Further Results on MSFE Encompassing," Working Papers 143, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    4. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    5. Ester Ruiz & Fernando Lorenzo, 1997. "Prediction with univariate time series models: The Iberia case," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0298, Department of Economics - dECON.
    6. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & João Victor Issler & George Athanasopoulos, 2005. "Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty Using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Gustavsson, Patrik & Nordström, Jonas, 1999. "The Impact of Seasonal Unit Roots and Vector ARMA Modeling on Forecasting Monthly Tourism Flows," Working Paper Series 150, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research, revised 01 Jul 2000.
    8. Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1998. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 450-458, October.
    9. Tom Engsted & Niels Haldrup & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2004. "Long-run forecasting in multicointegrated systems," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 315-335.
    10. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 131, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    11. David F. Hendry, 2002. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation and the Lucas Critique," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 21-40.
    12. George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2008. "A complete VARMA modelling methodology based on scalar components," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 533-554, May.
    13. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    14. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
    16. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Duo Qin & Sophie van Huellen & Qing Chao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2022. "Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, April.
    18. Athanasopoulos, George & Vahid, Farshid, 2008. "VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 237-252, April.
    19. Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestiwch, "undated". "The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run," Economics Papers W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    20. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August.
    21. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1997. "Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models," NBER Working Papers 5943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    25. Fichtner, Ferdinand & Rüffer, Rasmus & Schnatz, Bernd, 2009. "Leading indicators in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 1125, European Central Bank.
    26. George Athanasopoulos & D.S. Poskitt & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Two canonical VARMA forms: Scalar component models vis-à-vis the Echelon form," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised May 2009.
    27. Wagatha, Matthias, 2007. "Integration, Kointegration und die Langzeitprognose von Kreditausfallzyklen [Integration, Cointegration and Long-Horizont Forecasting of Credit-Default-Cycles]," MPRA Paper 8602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 2000. "La performance di modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un'applicazione con dati a diversa frequenza," Working Paper CRENoS 200014, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    29. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    30. Bruce Mizrach, 1996. "Forecast Comparison in L2," Departmental Working Papers 199524, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    31. Neri, Marcelo Côrtes & Soares, Wagner Lopes, 2008. "Turismo sustentável e alivio a pobreza: avaliação de impacto," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 689, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    32. Fabio Busetti & Juri Marcucci & Giovanni Veronese, 2009. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 723, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    33. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    35. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    36. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    37. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 1999. "Modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un confronto previsivo," Working Paper CRENoS 199914, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    38. Richard Paap & Philip Hans Franses & Marco Van Der Leij, 2002. "Modelling and forecasting level shifts in absolute returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 601-616.
    39. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    40. JS Armstrong & Robert Fildes, 2004. "Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods," General Economics and Teaching 0412002, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  86. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992. "Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Igor Masten & Massimiliano Marcellino & Anindya Banerjeey, 2009. "Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," RSCAS Working Papers 2009/32, European University Institute.
    2. Athanasopoulos, George & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2011. "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 713, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    3. Berument, Hakan & Dogan, Nukhet & Tansel, Aysit, 2008. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 3461, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & João Victor Issler & George Athanasopoulos, 2005. "Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty Using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    5. Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1998. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 450-458, October.
    6. Tom Engsted & Niels Haldrup & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2004. "Long-run forecasting in multicointegrated systems," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 315-335.
    7. BRATU SIMIONESCU, Mihaela, 2012. "Two Quantitative Forecasting Methods For Macroeconomic Indicators In Czech Republic," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 3(1), pages 71-87.
    8. Maghyereh, A., 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and Emerging Stock Markets: A Generalized VAR Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 27-40.
    9. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August.
    10. Fichtner, Ferdinand & Rüffer, Rasmus & Schnatz, Bernd, 2009. "Leading indicators in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 1125, European Central Bank.
    11. Wagatha, Matthias, 2007. "Integration, Kointegration und die Langzeitprognose von Kreditausfallzyklen [Integration, Cointegration and Long-Horizont Forecasting of Credit-Default-Cycles]," MPRA Paper 8602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 2000. "La performance di modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un'applicazione con dati a diversa frequenza," Working Paper CRENoS 200014, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    13. Friedrich Fritzer & Gabriel Moser & Johann Scharler, 2002. "Forecasting Austrian HICP and its Components using VAR and ARIMA Models," Working Papers 73, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    14. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. Neri, Marcelo Côrtes & Soares, Wagner Lopes, 2008. "Turismo sustentável e alivio a pobreza: avaliação de impacto," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 689, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    16. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society.
    17. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 1994. "Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 130(III), pages 267-298, September.
    18. Darius Hinz & Camille Logeay, 2006. "Forecasting Employment for Germany," IMK Working Paper 01-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute, revised Jan 2006.
    19. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 1999. "Modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un confronto previsivo," Working Paper CRENoS 199914, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    20. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.

  87. Luigi Ermini & David F. Hendry, 1991. "Log Income vs. Linear Income: An Application of the Encompassing Principle," Working Papers 199111, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

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    1. Cheng-Feng Cheng, 2012. "Evaluate the Effectiveness of Manager Compensation," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 11(1), pages 25-44, June.
    2. Katarina Juselius & Niels Framroze Møller & Finn Tarp, 2011. "The Long-Run Impact of Foreign Aid in 36 African Countries: Insights from Multivariate Time Series Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-051, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Jonas Harnau, 2018. "Log-Normal or Over-Dispersed Poisson?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-37, July.
    4. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    5. Ricardo Ramírez-Aldana & Lizbeth Naranjo, 2021. "Random intercept and linear mixed models including heteroscedasticity in a logarithmic scale: Correction terms and prediction in the original scale," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-21, April.
    6. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Principles from Experience with Forecasting Competitions," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-28, February.
    7. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2013. "On the Decomposition of Regional Stabilization and Redistribution," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-910, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    8. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David Hendry, 2019. "Some forecasting principles from the M4 competition," Economics Papers 2019-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    9. Tutz, Gerhard & Berger, Moritz, 2020. "The effect of explanatory variables on income: A tool that allows a closer look at the differences in income," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 28-41.
    10. Luigi Ermini, 1993. "Shock Persistence and Stochastic Trends in Australian Aggregate Output and Consumption," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(1), pages 34-43, March.
    11. Damen, Sven & Vastmans, Frank & Buyst, Erik, 2016. "The effect of mortgage interest deduction and mortgage characteristics on house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-29.

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    1. Dimitrios Sideris, 2004. "Testing for Long-Run PPP in a System Context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Working Papers 19, Bank of Greece.
    2. Bernd Hayo, 2000. "The demand for money in Austria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 581-603.
    3. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    4. Q. Farooq Akram & Ragnar Nymoen, 2006. "Model selection for monetary policy analysis – Importance of empirical validity," Working Paper 2006/13, Norges Bank.
    5. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2002. "Wage and price formation in a small open Economy: Evidence from Iceland," Economics wp16_thorarinn, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    6. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2000. "Wages, Prices, Productivity, Inflation and Unemployment in Italy 1970-1994," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0911, Econometric Society.
    7. Teun Kloek, 1992. "La construction et l'estimation de petits modèles macro-économiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 51-59.
    8. Rault, Christophe, 2005. "Further Results on Weak Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 25(2), November.
    9. Hayo, Bernd, 1998. "Estimating a European demand for money," ZEI Working Papers B 05-1998, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    10. Pillai N., Vijayamohanan, 2008. "In Quest of Truth: The War of Methods in Economics," MPRA Paper 8866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bordo, Michael D. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "The inter-war gold exchange standard: credibility and monetary independence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-32, February.
    12. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Sideris, Dimitris A. & Voumvaki, Fragiska K., 2005. "Testing long-run purchasing power parity under exchange rate targeting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 959-981, October.
    13. K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2001. "Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector," Bank of England working papers 134, Bank of England.
    14. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2007. "Money Demand in Estonia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 675, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Fiess, Norbert M. & Verner, Dorte, 2001. "Intersectoral dynamics and economic growth in Ecuador," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2514, The World Bank.
    16. Jumah, Adusei, 2000. "The Long Run, Market Power and Retail Pricing," Economics Series 78, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    17. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2000. "Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 1302, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 29 Jan 2002.
    18. Looney, Robert E., 1997. "Infrastructure and private sector investment in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-420.
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    21. Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992. "Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model," Discussion Papers 92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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    24. M. T. Alguacil & Vicente Orts, 2002. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment And Imports In Spain," Working Papers 02-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    25. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 1999. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," International Finance Discussion Papers 655, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Neil R. Ericsson & Sunil Sharma, 1996. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," International Finance Discussion Papers 559, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, 2002. "Monetary policy and stagflation in the UK," Bank of England working papers 155, Bank of England.
    28. Hali J. Edison & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Monetary policy independence in the ERM: was there any?," International Finance Discussion Papers 665, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    1. Jesper Linde, 2000. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Backward-Looking Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1028, Econometric Society.
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    3. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    4. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US data," Macroeconomics 0111005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Long-run relations between money, prices and output: the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 20265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Amir Kia, 2006. "Economic policies and demand for money: evidence from Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1389-1407.
    7. Teun Kloek, 1992. "La construction et l'estimation de petits modèles macro-économiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 51-59.
    8. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2003. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Memorandum 18/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    9. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Charles Goodhart & Lavan Mahadeva & John Spicer, 2003. "Monetary policy's effects during the financial crises in Brazil and Korea," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 55-79.
    11. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Anders R. Swensen, 2000. "Expectations in Export Price Formation Tests using Cointegrated VAR Models," Discussion Papers 283, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    12. Amir Kia & Ali F. Darrat, 2003. "Modeling Money Demand under the Profit-Sharing Banking Scheme: Evidence on Policy Invariance and Long-Run Stability," Carleton Economic Papers 03-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
    13. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2010. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 177-194, January.
    14. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Hong-Anh Tran, 1993. "Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 457, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Comment la dernière crise financière a relancé le débat relatif à l'arrimage du fcfa à l'euro [How the recent financial crisis have revived the debate on the parity between fcfa and euro]," MPRA Paper 32077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/11, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    17. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Arguments contre la zone franc [Against the cfa franc zone]," MPRA Paper 33710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Favero, Carlo A. & Monacelli, Tommas, 2003. "Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 3887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Pål Boug, 1999. "The Demand for Labour and the Lucas Critique. Evidence from Norwegian Manufacturing," Discussion Papers 256, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    21. Fatih Ozatay, 1992. "The Role of Public Sector Prices in Price Dynamics in Turkey and the Lucas Critique," Discussion Papers 9208, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    22. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese & Ignazio Visco, 1999. "Are model-based inflation forecasts used in monetary policymaking? A case study," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 357, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. P. Ruben Mercado, 2001. "Macroeconomic Volatility during Argentina's Import Substitution Stage," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 151-161.
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    27. Zivot, Eric, 2000. "The Power Of Single Equation Tests For Cointegration When The Cointegrating Vector Is Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 407-439, June.
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    30. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. John S. Irons & N. Ericsson, "undated". "An early version of The Lucas Critique in Practice: Theory without Measurement," Home Pages _004, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Economics.
    32. Alejandro López & Martha Misas & Hugo Oliveros, 1996. "Understanding Consumption in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3734, Banco de la Republica.
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    37. Sekine, Toshitaka, 1998. "Financial Liberalization, the Wealth Effect, and the Demand for Broad Money in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 16(1), pages 35-55, May.

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    1. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
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    6. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    7. Khalid Mushtaq & Faisal Abbas & Abedullah & Abdul Ghafoor, 2007. "Energy Use for Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis from the Agriculture Sector of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 1065-1073.
    8. Abbas, Faisal & Choudhury, Nirmalya, 2013. "Electricity consumption-economic growth Nexus: An aggregated and disaggregated causality analysis in India and Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 538-553.
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    50. Norbert Janssen, 1998. "The demand for M0 in the United Kingdom reconsidered: some specification issues," Bank of England working papers 83, Bank of England.
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    107. Nepal, Rabindra & Paija, Nirash, 2020. "Stability of Money Demand Function in the SAARC Region: A Panel Co-Integration Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128.
    108. John S. Irons & N. Ericsson, "undated". "An early version of The Lucas Critique in Practice: Theory without Measurement," Home Pages _004, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Economics.
    109. Godwin Nwaobi, 2001. "A Vector Error Correction And Nonnested Modelling Of Money Demand Function In Nigeria," Econometrics 0111004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    113. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    114. C. P. Barros & João Ricardo Faria & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2017. "The demand for money in Angola," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 408-420, April.
    115. Vassilios Bazinas & Bent Nielsen, 2022. "Causal Transmission in Reduced-Form Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, March.
    116. Elmer Cuba & Rafael Herrada, 1995. "Demanda de Dinero, Inflación y Política Monetaria en el Perú: 1991-1994," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 32(97), pages 347-378.
    117. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Pei-Fen & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2007. "Testing linearity in a cointegrating STR model for the money demand function: International evidence from G-7 countries," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 293-302.
    118. Ana Bela Nunes & Miguel St. Aubyn & Nuno Valério & Rita Martins Sousa, 2018. "Determinants of the income velocity of money in Portugal: 1891–1998," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(2), pages 99-115, July.
    119. Arize, A. C., 1996. "Real exchange-rate volatility and trade flows: The experience of eight European economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 187-205.
    120. Hong, Puah & Leong, Choi-Meng & Mansor, Shazali & Lau, Evan, 2018. "Revisiting Money Demand in Malaysia: Simple-Sum versus Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(2), pages 267-278.
    121. Stefan Gerlach, 2017. "Long-run money demand in Switzerland," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 68(01), pages 47-62, December.
    122. Kueh, Jerome Swee-Hui & Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Chiew-Meu, 2008. "Bounds Estimation for Trade Openness and Government Expenditure Nexus of ASEAN-4 Countries," MPRA Paper 12351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    123. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Money demand, adjustment costs, and forward-looking behavior," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 153-173, April.
    124. Adedoyin Soyibo, 1996. "The transmission of savings to investment in Nigeria," Working Papers 48, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    125. de Jong, Robert M., 2001. "Nonlinear estimation using estimated cointegrating relations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 109-122, March.
    126. Garcés Díaz Daniel, 2020. "On the Drivers of Inflation in Different Monetary Regimes," Working Papers 2020-16, Banco de México.
    127. Roger E. Backhouse & Bradley W. Bateman, 2012. "The Right Kind of an Economist: Friedman’s View of Keynes," Chapters, in: Thomas Cate (ed.), Keynes’s General Theory, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    129. Escribano, Álvaro & Wang, Dandan, 2021. "Mixed random forest, cointegration, and forecasting gasoline prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1442-1462.
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  93. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1989. "Encompassing and rational expectations: how sequential corroboration can imply refutation," International Finance Discussion Papers 354, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Ragnar Nymoen & Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "The empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 328, Econometric Society.
    3. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2003. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Memorandum 18/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. David Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Economics Series Working Papers 529, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Luca Fanelli, 2006. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve through Vector Autoregressive models : Results from the Euro area," Quaderni di Dipartimento 0, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
    7. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    8. Nymoen, Ragnar & Rygh Swensen, Anders & Tveter, Eivind, 2011. "Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics," Memorandum 23/2011, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    9. Cheong, ChongCheul, 2003. "Regime changes and econometric modeling of the demand for money in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 437-453, May.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 1991. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: an overview," International Finance Discussion Papers 415, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1999. "Contructive data mining: modeling consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 226-240.
    12. Kevin Hoover, 2005. "Economic Theory and Causal Inference," Working Papers 257, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    13. John S. Irons & N. Ericsson, "undated". "An early version of The Lucas Critique in Practice: Theory without Measurement," Home Pages _004, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Economics.
    14. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1996. "On the power of tests for superexogeneity and structural invariance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 151-175.
    15. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    16. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  94. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1987. "An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures," International Finance Discussion Papers 303, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons & Ralph W. Tryon, 2001. "Output and inflation in the long run," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 241-253.
    2. Granger, C. W. J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, seasonal adjustment, and cointegration theory and evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 357-369.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Hong-Anh Tran, 1993. "Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 457, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Yamin Ahmad & Ivan Paya, 2014. "Temporal Aggregation of Random Walk Processes and Implications for Asset Prices," Working Papers 14-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
    5. Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestiwch, "undated". "The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run," Economics Papers W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung & Pierre Siklos, 1993. "The Common Development of Institutional Change as Measured by Income Velocity: A Century of Evidence from Industrialized Countries," NBER Working Papers 4379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    8. Mamingi Nlandu, 2017. "Beauty and Ugliness of Aggregation over Time: A Survey," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(3), pages 205-227, December.
    9. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-136, January.
    10. Ahmad Yamin S & Paya Ivan, 2020. "Temporal aggregation of random walk processes and implications for economic analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-20, April.
    11. Edward Nelson, 2012. "The correlation between money and output in the United Kingdom: resolution of a puzzle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Ericsson Neil R., 2016. "Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 377-398, September.

  95. Hendry, D.F. & Richard, J.-F., 1987. "Recent developments in the theory of encompassing," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1987022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Berkowitz & Katharina Pistor & Jean-Francois Richard, 2000. "Economic Development, Legality, and the Transplant Effect," CID Working Papers 39, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Matteo Manera, 2005. "Modeling Factor Demands with SEM and VAR: An Empirical Comparison," Working Papers 2005.47, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2004. "Truth and Robustness in Cross‐country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 765-798, December.
    4. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    5. Pierre-André Chiappori, 1990. "La théorie du consommateur est-elle réfutable ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(6), pages 1001-1026.
    6. Kevin Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2003. "Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search," Working Papers 200, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    7. Kevin Hoover & Stephen Perez, 2001. "Three attitudes towards data mining," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 195-210.
    8. Marc Lavoie & Gabriel Rodriguez & Mario Seccareccia, 2004. "Similitudes and Discrepancies in Post-Keynesian and Marxist Theories of Investment: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-149.
    9. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1999. "Encompassing and rational expectations: How sequential corroboration can imply refutation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-21.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 895-914, December.
    11. Loann David Denis Desboulets, 2018. "A Review on Variable Selection in Regression Analysis," Post-Print hal-01954386, HAL.

  96. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham Ernest, 1985. "Procrustean Econometrics: Stretching and Squeezing Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 68, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    2. Adam Fforde, 2004. "Persuasion: Reflections on Economics, Data and the 'Homogeneity Assumption'," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 919, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    4. Kevin Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2003. "Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search," Working Papers 200, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

  97. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1985. "Conditional econometric modelling : an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 254, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Espasa, Antoni, 1994. "Aproximaciones a la Econometría," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 2943, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Bar-Nathan, Moshe & Beenstock, Michael & Haitovsky, Yoel, 1998. "The market for housing in Israel," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 21-49, January.
    3. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    4. Olympia Bover, 1993. "Un modelo empírico de la evolución de los precios de la vivienda en España," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(1), pages 65-86, January.
    5. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
    6. Moshe Bar ­Nathan & Michael Beenstock & Yoel Haitovsky, 1995. "An Econometric Model Of The Israeli Housing Market," Bank of Israel Working Papers 1995.02, Bank of Israel.
    7. Neil R. Ericsson, 1994. "Conditional and structural error correction models," International Finance Discussion Papers 487, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  98. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1985. "Assertion without empirical basis : an econometric appraisal of monetary trends in ... the United Kingdom, by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," International Finance Discussion Papers 270, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Economics Working Papers 89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1987. "An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures," International Finance Discussion Papers 303, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.

  99. HENDRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, 1983. "The econometric analysis of economic time series," LIDAM Reprints CORE 531, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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    1. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1985. "Conditional econometric modelling : an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 254, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Annari de Waal & Renee van Eyden, 2012. "Monetary policy and inflation in South Africa: A VECM augmented with foreign variables," Working Papers 201231, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Aurikko, Esko, 1985. "Testing Disequilibrium Adjustment Models for Finnish Exports of Goods," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(1), pages 33-50, February.
    4. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
    5. Kiviet, Jan F., 1985. "Model selection test procedures in a single linear equation of a dynamic simultaneous system and their defects in small samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 327-362, June.
    6. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    7. Eduardo Loría, 2001. "La restricción externa dinámica al crecimiento de México a través de las propensiones del comercio, 1970-1999," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 16(2), pages 227-251.
    8. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    9. Steel, Mark F. J. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1991. "Bayesian multivariate exogeneity analysis : An application to a UK money demand equation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 239-274.
    10. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "History of macroeconometric modelling: lessons from past experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-281, February.
    11. Bardsen, G., 1990. "Dynamic Modelling and the Demand for Narrow Money in Norway," Papers 07-90, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
    12. Udo, Eli A. & Obiora, Isitua K., 2006. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the West African Monetary Zone: A System Equations Approach," Conference papers 331519, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Ghouse, Ghulam & Khan, Saud Ahmed & Rehman, Atiq Ur, 2018. "ARDL model as a remedy for spurious regression: problems, performance and prospectus," MPRA Paper 83973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Guerrero Santiago & Juárez-Torres Miriam & Sámano Daniel & Kochen Federico & Puigvert Jonathan, 2016. "Price Transmission in Food and Non-Food Product Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2016-18, Banco de México.
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    16. Sriram, Subramanian S., 2002. "Determinants and stability of demand for M2 in Malaysia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 337-356.
    17. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2013. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the Great Moderation era: New evidence from G10 countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-32.
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    19. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 1998. "On the Japanese Yen-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 75-102, March.
    20. Robert Kalaba & Leigh Tesfatsion, 1995. "A Multicriteria Approach to Model Specification and Estimation," Econometrics 9501001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Miller, Stephen M. & Russek, Frank S., 1996. "Do federal deficits affect interest rates? Evidence from three econometric methods," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 403-428.
    22. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    23. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    53. TOGBENU, Fo-kossi Edem & Kadanga, Mayo Takémsi Norris, 2024. "Un réexamen de l’effet de seuil de la dette publique sur la croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne [A reevaluation of the threshold effect of public debt on economic growth in Sub-Saharan A," MPRA Paper 120429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    65. Mr. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Mr. Alessandro Calza & Mr. Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 2001/179, International Monetary Fund.
    66. Nguyen, Tin & Cheng, Enjiang, 1997. "Productivity gains from farmer education in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(4), pages 1-27.
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    68. Raymond Swaray, 2007. "On the Relationship between the Public’s Worry about Safety from Burglary and Probabilities of Burglary: Some Evidence from Simultaneous Equation Models," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 80(2), pages 361-378, January.
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    71. Kuuluvainen, Jari & Korhonen, Jaana & Wang, Lanhui & Toppinen, Anne, 2021. "Wood market cartel in Finland 1997–2004: Analyzing price effects using the indicator approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

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    Cited by:

    1. Jesper Linde, 2000. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Backward-Looking Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1028, Econometric Society.
    2. Francesco Guala & Andrea Salanti, 2002. "On the Robustness of Economic Models," Working Papers (-2012) 0208, University of Bergamo, Department of Economics.
    3. Söderström, Ulf & Leitemo, Kai & ,, 2006. "Methods for Robust Control," CEPR Discussion Papers 5638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bruce N. Lehmann, 2005. "The Role of Beliefs in Inference for Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 11758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    6. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate," International Finance 9502001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "The Econometrics of Monetary Policy: an Overview," Working Papers 329, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    8. Marco Bonomo & René Garcia, 1997. "Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models in the Brazilian Stock Market," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-20, CIRANO.
    9. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Stochastic Processes Subject To Time Scale Transformations: An Application To High-Frequency Fx Data," Department of Economics 00-02, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    10. Rault, Christophe, 2005. "Further Results on Weak Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 25(2), November.
    11. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
    12. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    13. Adrian Pagan, 1985. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 741, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339, Elsevier.
    15. Shadman-Mehta, Fatemeh, 1996. "Does Modern Econometrics replicate the Phillips Curve?," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1996015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    16. George Neumann, 1996. "Search Models and Duration Data," Econometrics 9602008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 1996.
    17. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Montmarquette, C. & Cannings, C. & Mahseredjian,S., 1997. "How do Young People Choose College Majors?," Cahiers de recherche 9719, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    19. Jan Jacobs & Albert van der Horst,, 1996. "VAR-ing the economy of the Netherlands," Working Papers 24, Centre for Economic Research, University of Groningen and University of Twente.
    20. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2000. "The International Dimension of African Economic Growth," CID Working Papers 34A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    21. Javier Gardeazabal & María Carmen Iglesias, "undated". "oCausan los ciclos del G7 el ciclo español?," Studies on the Spanish Economy 22, FEDEA.
    22. Hernán Rincón & Edgar Caicedo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effects : A Disaggregate Analysis Of Colombian Imports Of Manufactured Goods," Borradores de Economia 2682, Banco de la Republica.
    23. Richard G. Anderson & Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 2001. "A vector error correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 1998-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    24. Bernd Hayo & Ali Kutan, 2001. "Investor Panic, IMF Actions, and Emerging Stock Market Returns and Volatility," International Finance 0112001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Jesper Linde, 2001. "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 986-1005, September.
    26. Mª Mar Sánchez, 2002. "Interest-Rate Models For Us And Uk With Mixed Inflationary Expectations. A Comparison With The Rational And The Adaptive Scheme," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    27. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
    28. Fatih Ozatay, 1992. "The Role of Public Sector Prices in Price Dynamics in Turkey and the Lucas Critique," Discussion Papers 9208, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    29. Hernán Rincón, 1999. "Testing the Short-Long-Run Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Balance: The Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 120, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    30. Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Testing for Structural Change in Conditional Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 310., Boston College Department of Economics.
    31. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    32. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
    33. Yash P. Mehra, 1996. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-49.
    34. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Mr. Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi Sedik, 2006. "The Jordanian Stock Market—Should You Invest in It for Risk Diversification or Performance?," IMF Working Papers 2006/187, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Yash P. Mehra, 2000. "Wage-price dynamics : are they consistent with cost push?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-43.
    37. Todd Prono, 2006. "GARCH-based identification of triangular systems with an application to the CAPM: still living with the roll critique," Working Papers 07-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    38. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," IMF Working Papers 2007/110, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Issler, João Victor & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho, 2003. "On the welfare costs of business cycles in the 20th century," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 481, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    40. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
    41. N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2001. "Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: The tradition is questioned," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 312, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    42. Ricardo Gimeno & Carmen Martínez-Carrascal, 2006. "The interaction between house prices and loans for house purchase. The Spanish case," Working Papers 0605, Banco de España.
    43. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," NBER Technical Working Papers 0083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Masao Ogaki & Chi-Young Choi, 2001. "The Gauss-Markov Theorem and Spurious Regressions," Working Papers 01-13, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.

  101. David F. Hendry & Gordon J. Anderson, 1975. "Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: An Application to a Model of Building Society Behavior in the United Kingdom," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 398, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. D. Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Spurious Regression," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-27, August.
    2. Sendhil, R. & Ramasundaram, P., 2014. "Performance and Relevance of Wheat Futures Market in India – An Exploratory Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 174839, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Lafrance, Robert, 1983. "Évaluation de l’hypothèse de la moyenne-variance : une application au portefeuille des banques canadiennes," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 59(1), pages 20-37, mars.
    4. Ramadas, Sendhil & Palanisamy, Ramasundaram & Kuruvila, Anil & Chandrasekaran, Sundaramoorthy & Singh, Randhir & Sharma, Indu, 2014. "Food Price Volatility in India – Drivers, Impact and Policy Response," MPRA Paper 91131, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lafrance, R., 1982. "Evaluation de L'hypothese de la Moyenne-Variance: une Application au Portefeuille des Banques Canadiennes," Cahiers de recherche 8219, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.

  102. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Neil Shephard, "undated". "Computationally-intensive Econometrics using a Distributed Matrix-programming Language," Economics Papers 2001-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Cited by:

    1. Mathur, Sudhanshu & Morozov, Sergei, 2009. "Massively Parallel Computation Using Graphics Processors with Application to Optimal Experimentation in Dynamic Control," MPRA Paper 16721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Michael Creel, 2005. "User-Friendly Parallel Computations with Econometric Examples," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 637.05, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    3. Jurgen A. Doornik & Neil Shephard & David F. Hendry, 2004. "Parallel Computation in Econometrics: A Simplified Approach," Economics Papers 2004-W16, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    4. Christopher Ferrall, 2003. "Solving Finite Mixture Models in Parallel," Computational Economics 0303003, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Articles

  1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2022. "Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 453-466.

    Cited by:

    1. Sen, Anindya & Baker, John David & Zhang, Qihuang & Agarwal, Rishav Raj & Lam, Jean-Paul, 2023. "Do more stringent policies reduce daily COVID-19 case counts? Evidence from Canadian provinces," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 225-242.
    2. Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Street, Alexandre & Valladão, Davi & Vasconcelos, Gabriel & Zilberman, Eduardo, 2022. "Short-term Covid-19 forecast for latecomers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 467-488.
    3. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2023. "Dynamic time series modelling and forecasting of COVID-19 in Norway," Memorandum 3/2023, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    4. Evangelos Spiliotis & Fotios Petropoulos & Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2023. "On the Disagreement of Forecasting Model Selection Criteria," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-12, June.
    5. Paul Haimerl & Tobias Hartl, 2023. "Modeling COVID-19 Infection Rates by Regime-Switching Unobserved Components Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Gunnar BÃ¥rdsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2023. "Dynamic time series modelling and forecasting of COVID-19 in Norway," Working Paper Series 19623, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    7. Choudhury, Nishat Alam & Ramkumar, M. & Schoenherr, Tobias & Singh, Shalabh, 2023. "The role of operations and supply chain management during epidemics and pandemics: Potential and future research opportunities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

  3. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Principles from Experience with Forecasting Competitions," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-28, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Jurgen A. Doornik & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Modeling and forecasting the COVID‐19 pandemic time‐series data," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2070-2087, September.
    2. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Selecting a Model for Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, June.
    3. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent & Gutiérrez, Luis Antonio García & Bright, Jamie M. & Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Benchmarks for solar radiation time series forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 747-762.
    4. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Alessia Paccagnini, 2021. "Editorial for Special Issue “New Frontiers in Forecasting the Business Cycle and Financial Markets”," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-3, July.
    6. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2022. "Structural relationships between cryptocurrency prices and monetary policy indicators," Economics Series Working Papers 972, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  5. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "The Value Of Robust Statistical Forecasts In The Covid-19 Pandemic," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 256, pages 19-43, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Byron Botha & Rulof Burger & Kevin Kotze & Neil Rankin & Daan Steenkamp, 2022. "Big data forecasting of South African inflation," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2022-03, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    2. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    3. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.

  7. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Selecting a Model for Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2020. "Card forecasts for M4," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 129-134.

    Cited by:

    1. Pantelis Agathangelou & Demetris Trihinas & Ioannis Katakis, 2020. "A Multi-Factor Analysis of Forecasting Methods: A Study on the M4 Competition," Data, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-24, April.
    2. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    3. Ruben Loaiza‐Maya & Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier, 2021. "Focused Bayesian prediction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 517-543, August.
    4. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Selecting a Model for Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, June.
    5. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2020. "Short-term forecasting of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 2020-04-27," Economics Papers 2020-W06, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Wilson, Tom & Grossman, Irina & Temple, Jeromey, 2023. "Evaluation of the best M4 competition methods for small area population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 110-122.
    8. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    9. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Principles from Experience with Forecasting Competitions," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-28, February.
    10. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2022. "Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 453-466.
    11. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David Hendry, 2019. "Some forecasting principles from the M4 competition," Economics Papers 2019-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    12. Diogo de Prince & Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2022. "Forecasting Industrial Production Using Its Aggregated and Disaggregated Series or a Combination of Both: Evidence from One Emerging Market Economy," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-34, June.

  9. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2020. "Climate Econometrics: An Overview," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 10(3-4), pages 145-322, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Ar'anzazu de Juan & Pilar Poncela & Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2022. "Economic activity and climate change," Papers 2206.03187, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    2. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Álvaro, 2022. "Score-driven threshold ice-age models: benchmark models for long-run climate forecasts," UC3M Working papers. Economics 34757, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    3. Chen, Liang & Dolado, Juan José & Ramos Ramirez, Andrey David & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2023. "Heterogeneous Predictive Association of CO2 with Global Warming," UC3M Working papers. Economics 36451, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Proietti, Tommaso & Maddanu, Federico, 2024. "Modelling cycles in climate series: The fractional sinusoidal waveform process," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    6. Federico Maddanu, 2022. "A harmonically weighted filter for cyclical long memory processes," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(1), pages 49-78, March.
    7. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    8. K. Mukherjee & B. Ouattara, 2021. "Climate and monetary policy: do temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-21, August.
    9. Blazsek, Szabolcs Istvan & Escribano, Álvaro & Kristof, Erzsebet, 2024. "Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions: using score-driven threshold climate models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 39546, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    10. Chen, Liang & Dolado, Juan José & Gonzalo, Jesús & Ramos Ramirez, Andrey David, 2013. "Revisiting Granger Causality of CO2 on Global Warming: a Quantile Factor Approach," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 35531, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

  10. David F Hendry & John N J Muellbauer, 2018. "The future of macroeconomics: macro theory and models at the Bank of England," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 287-328.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. James A. Duffy & David F. Hendry, 2017. "The impact of integrated measurement errors on modeling long-run macroeconomic time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 568-587, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Jeyhun Mammadov, 2020. "Gasoline Demand Elasticities at the Backdrop of Lower Oil Prices: Fuel-Subsidizing Country Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    2. S. Yanki Kalfa & Jaime Marquez, 2021. "Forecasting FOMC Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-21, September.
      • S. Yanki Kalfa & Jaime Marquez, 2018. "Forecasting FOMC Forecasts," Working Papers 2018-007, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    3. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    4. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers 2020-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    5. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    6. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    7. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    8. Rocco Mosconi & Paolo Paruolo, 2022. "Celebrated Econometricians: Katarina Juselius and Søren Johansen," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-4, May.
    9. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2022. "Econometrics of sentiments- sentometrics and machine learning: The improvement of inflation predictions in Romania using sentiment analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    10. Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
    11. Pretis, Felix, 2021. "Exogeneity in climate econometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    12. Guillaume Chevillon & Takamitsu Kurita, 2023. "What Does it Take to Control Global Temperatures? A toolbox for estimating the impact of economic policies on climate," Papers 2307.05818, arXiv.org.

  14. Hendry, David F. & Martinez, Andrew B., 2017. "Evaluating multi-step system forecasts with relatively few forecast-error observations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 359-372.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Felix Pretis & Lea Schneider & Jason E. Smerdon & David F. Hendry, 2016. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions In Temperature Reconstructions By Designed Break-Indicator Saturation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 403-429, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2016. "Outliers and Model Selection: Discussion of the Paper by Søren Johansen and Bent Nielsen," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(2), pages 360-365, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Vanessa Berenguer-Rico & Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "Models where the Least Trimmed Squares and Least Median of Squares estimators are maximum likelihood," Economics Papers 2019-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. Espasa, Antoni & Senra, Eva, 2017. "22 Years of inflation assessment and forecasting experience at the bulletin of EU & US inflation and macroeconomic analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24678, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.

  18. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.

    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Lea Schneider & Jason E. Smerdon, 2016. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 780, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    3. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2014. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Relationships: An Automated Model Selection Approach with Indicator Saturation," Working Papers 1405, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    4. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    5. Felix Pretis, 2022. "Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 115-144, September.
    6. Liqian Cai & Arnab Bhattacharjee & Roger Calantone & Taps Maiti, 2019. "Variable Selection with Spatially Autoregressive Errors: A Generalized Moments LASSO Estimator," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 146-200, September.
    7. David H. Bernstein & Andrew B. Martinez, 2021. "Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Sara Muhammadullah & Amena Urooj & Faridoon Khan, 2021. "A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(2), pages 80-92, September.
    9. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    10. Roman Frydman & Soren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2021. "Asset Prices Under Knightian Uncertainty," Working Papers Series inetwp172, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    11. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Jennifer L. Castle, 2022. "Machine Learning Dynamic Switching Approach to Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 129-157, July.
    12. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Roman Frydman & Joshua R. Stillwagon, 2016. "Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter," Working Papers Series 44, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    14. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel & Rıdvan Aydın, 2020. "Elasticity Analysis of Fossil Energy Sources for Sustainable Economies: A Case of Gasoline Consumption in Turkey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    15. Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    17. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    18. Wildauer, Rafael & Leitch, Stuart & Kapeller, Jakob, 2021. "Is a €10 trillion European climate investment initiative fiscally sustainable?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 34344, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    19. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2019. "User-Specified General-to-Specific and Indicator Saturation Methods," MPRA Paper 96148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Selecting a Model for Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, June.
    21. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers 2020-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    22. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    23. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    24. Espasa, Antoni & Senra, Eva, 2017. "22 Years of inflation assessment and forecasting experience at the bulletin of EU & US inflation and macroeconomic analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24678, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    25. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2020. "Short-term forecasting of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 2020-04-27," Economics Papers 2020-W06, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    26. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    27. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Interpreting estimates of forecast bias," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 563-568.
    28. Chuffart, Thomas & Hooper, Emma, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 904-916.
    29. Felix Pretis, 2015. "Econometric Models of Climate Systems: The Equivalence of Two-Component Energy Balance Models and Cointegrated VARs," Economics Series Working Papers 750, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    30. Leighton Vaughan Williams & J. James Reade, 2016. "Prediction Markets, Social Media and Information Efficiency," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 518-556, August.
    31. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    32. John Muellbauer, 2016. "Macroeconomics and Consumption," Economics Series Working Papers Paper-811, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    33. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    34. Møller, Niels Framroze & Andersen, Laura Mørch & Hansen, Lars Gårn & Jensen, Carsten Lynge, 2019. "Can pecuniary and environmental incentives via SMS messaging make households adjust their electricity demand to a fluctuating production?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1050-1058.
    35. Mukanjari, Samson & Sterner, Thomas, 2018. "Do Markets Trump Politics? Evidence from Fossil Market Reactions to the Paris Agreement and the U.S. Election," Working Papers in Economics 728, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    36. Pretis, Felix, 2020. "Econometric modelling of climate systems: The equivalence of energy balance models and cointegrated vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 256-273.
    37. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Sugra Humbatova & Vugar Muradov, 2020. "Do High Oil Prices Obstruct the Transition to Renewable Energy Consumption?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-16, June.
    38. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    39. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    40. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    41. Ahumada, H. & Cornejo, M., 2016. "Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-848.
    42. Felix Pretis & Michael Mann & Robert Kaufmann, 2015. "Testing competing models of the temperature hiatus: assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 705-718, August.
    43. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Economics Papers 2021-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    44. Niels Framroze Møller & Laura Mørch Andersen & Lars Gårn Hansen & Carsten Lynge Jensen, 2018. "Can pecuniary and environmental incentives via SMS messaging make households adjust their intra-day electricity demand to a fluctuating production?," IFRO Working Paper 2018/06, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    45. Scheer, Antonina & Schwarz, Moritz & Hopkins, Debbie & Caldecott, Ben, 2022. "Whose jobs face transition risk in Alberta? Understanding sectoral employment precarity in an oil-rich Canadian province," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115358, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    46. Takamitsu Kurita & Patrick James, 2022. "The Canadian–US dollar exchange rate over the four decades of the post‐Bretton Woods float: An econometric study allowing for structural breaks," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 856-883, July.
    47. Castle, Jennifer L. & Kurita, Takamitsu, 2021. "A dynamic econometric analysis of the dollar-pound exchange rate in an era of structural breaks and policy regime shifts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    48. Pellini, Elisabetta, 2021. "Estimating income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand with Autometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    49. Neil R. Ericsson & Mohammed H. I. Dore & Hassan Butt, 2022. "Detecting and Quantifying Structural Breaks in Climate," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, November.
    50. James Duffy & David Hendry, 2017. "The Impact of Integrated Measurement Errors on Modelling Long-run Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics Series Working Papers 818, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    51. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    52. Bjerregaard, Casper & Møller, Niels Framroze, 2022. "The influence of electricity prices on saving electricity in production: Automated multivariate time-series analyses for 99 Danish trades and industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    53. Mikayilov, Jeyhun I. & Darandary, Abdulelah & Alyamani, Ryan & Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Alatawi, Hatem, 2020. "Regional heterogeneous drivers of electricity demand in Saudi Arabia: Modeling regional residential electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    54. Frydman, Roman & Stillwagon, Joshua R., 2018. "Fundamental factors and extrapolation in stock-market expectations: The central role of structural change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 189-198.
    55. James Reade & Genaro Sucarrat, 2016. "General-to-Specific (GETS) Modelling And Indicator Saturation With The R Package Gets," Economics Series Working Papers 794, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    56. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2022. "Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 453-466.
    57. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2022. "Flexible exchange rates in emerging markets: shock absorbers or drivers of endogenous cycles?," Working Papers PKWP2205, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    58. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "Time-Varying Parameters as Ridge Regressions," Papers 2009.00401, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    59. Roman Frydman & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2022. "Muth's Hypothesis Under Knightian Uncertainty: A Novel Account of Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Series inetwp194, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    60. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2016. "Outliers and Model Selection: Discussion of the Paper by Søren Johansen and Bent Nielsen," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(2), pages 360-365, June.
    61. Hildegart Ahumada & Magdalena Cornejo, 2021. "Are Soybean Yields Getting a Free Ride from Climate Change? Evidence from Argentine Time Series Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14, June.
    62. Apergis, Nicholas & Pan, Wei-Fong & Reade, James & Wang, Shixuan, 2023. "Modelling Australian electricity prices using indicator saturation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    63. Ryan-Collins, Josh & Werner, Richard A. & Castle, Jennifer, 2016. "A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-176.
    64. Ericsson Neil R., 2016. "Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 377-398, September.

  21. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2014. "Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 186-195.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2014. "Model selection in under-specified equations facing breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 286-293.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos, Thiago Carlomagno & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon," Textos para discussão 346, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    2. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    3. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    4. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    5. Jack Fosten, 2016. "Model selection with factors and variables," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    6. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2015. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Charles Rahal, 2015. "Housing Market Forecasting with Factor Combinations," Discussion Papers 15-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    8. Pinto, Jeronymo Marcondes & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2019. "Cross-validation based forecasting method: a machine learning approach," Textos para discussão 498, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    9. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Emmanuel Flachaire & Gilles Hacheme & Sullivan Hu'e & S'ebastien Laurent, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable Machine Learning," Papers 2203.11691, arXiv.org.
    11. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    12. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "U.K. Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 41, Bank of Lithuania.
    14. Kitlinski, Tobias, 2015. "With or without you: Do financial data help to forecast industrial production?," Ruhr Economic Papers 558, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Dellas, Harris & Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2018. "The macroeconomic and fiscal implications of inflation forecast errors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 203-217.
    16. Clements, Michael P., 2016. "Real-time factor model forecasting and the effects of instability," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 661-675.
    17. Sullivan Hué, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable machine learning," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 19, Stata Users Group.
    18. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Jack Fosten, 2016. "Forecast evaluation with factor-augmented models," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-05, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    20. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    21. Neil R. Ericsson & Mohammed H. I. Dore & Hassan Butt, 2022. "Detecting and Quantifying Structural Breaks in Climate," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, November.
    22. Michael S. Lee-Browne, 2019. "Estimating monetary policy rules in small open economies," Working Papers 2019-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    23. Yuxuan Huang, 2016. "Forecasting the USD/CNY Exchange Rate under Different Policy Regimes," Working Papers 2016-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    24. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Testing for Structural Stability of Factor Augmented Forecasting Models," Departmental Working Papers 201314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.

  26. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Castle Jennifer L. & Doornik Jurgen A & Hendry David F., 2011. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Hendry David F & Mizon Grayham E, 2011. "Econometric Modelling of Time Series with Outlying Observations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    2. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Camille Logeay, 2019. "Short-Term macroeconomic evaluation of the German minimum wage with a VAR/VECM," IMK Working Paper 197-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Step-indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 658, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    6. David Hendry & John Muellbauer, 2017. "The future of macroeconomics: Macro theory and models at the Bank of England," Economics Series Working Papers 832, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2014. "Outlier detection algorithms for least squares time series regression," CREATES Research Papers 2014-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    9. D. R. Cox, 2013. "A return to an old paper: ‘Tests of separate families of hypotheses’," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(2), pages 207-215, March.
    10. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Panday, Anjan, 2015. "Impact of monetary policy on exchange market pressure: The case of Nepal," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-71.
    12. Søren Johansen & Lukasz Gatarek, 2014. "Optimal hedging with the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," CREATES Research Papers 2014-40, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    14. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    15. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2015. "Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: the Indicator Saturation Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113137, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    17. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
    19. Barlow, David, 2023. "The stability of UK households Divisia money balances," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 451-459.
    20. James Duffy & David Hendry, 2017. "The Impact of Integrated Measurement Errors on Modelling Long-run Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics Series Working Papers 818, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    21. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    22. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.
    23. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2016. "Outliers and Model Selection: Discussion of the Paper by Søren Johansen and Bent Nielsen," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(2), pages 360-365, June.
    24. Javid, Muhammad & Khan, Farzana Naheed & Arif, Umaima, 2022. "Income and price elasticities of natural gas demand in Pakistan: A disaggregated analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

  29. David F. Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Rationality, Markets and Morals, Frankfurt School Verlag, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, vol. 2(46), October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Hendry, David F., 2011. "On adding over-identifying instrumental variables to simultaneous equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 68-70, April.

    Cited by:

    1. David F. Hendry & Søren Johansen, 2011. "The Properties of Model Selection when Retaining Theory Variables," Discussion Papers 11-25, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
    3. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    4. Jan F. Kiviet, 2016. "Discriminating between (in)valid external instruments and (in)valid exclusion restrictions," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1508, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.

  32. Castle, Jennifer L. & Fawcett, Nicholas W.P. & Hendry, David F., 2010. "Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 25-36, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2010. "A low-dimension portmanteau test for non-linearity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(2), pages 231-245, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  34. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.

    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Charlie X. & Kyaw, Khine & Zhang, Qi, 2012. "Stock index return forecasting: The information of the constituents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 72-74.
    2. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
    3. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2016. "Discovering common trends in a large set of disaggregates: statistical procedures and their properties," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1519, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    5. Matteo Mogliani, 2019. "Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: estimation, selection, and prediction," Working papers 713, Banque de France.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson & Erica L. Reisman, 2012. "Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting," Working Papers 2012-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    7. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2011. "Forecasting Contemporaneous Aggregates with Stochastic Aggregation Weights," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-23, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    8. Guillermo Carlomagno & Antoni Espasa, 2021. "Discovering Specific Common Trends in a Large Set of Disaggregates: Statistical Procedures, their Properties and an Empirical Application," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 641-662, June.
    9. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2015. "Forecasting a large set of disaggregates with common trends and outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    10. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," CAMA Working Papers 2020-63, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    12. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2014. "Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 4574, CESifo.
    14. Carlomagno Real, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2017. "Discovering pervasive and non-pervasive common cycles," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 25392, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    15. Roberto Cerina & Raymond Duch, 2021. "Polling India via regression and post-stratification of non-probability online samples," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-34, November.
    16. William Larson, 2015. "Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates," Working Papers 2015-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    17. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  35. Castle, Jennifer L. & Fawcett, Nicholas W.P. & Hendry, David F., 2009. "Nowcasting is not Just Contemporaneous Forecasting," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210, pages 71-89, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Mioara, POPESCU, 2015. "Construction Of Economic Indicators Using Internet Searches," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 6(1), pages 25-31.
    2. Grzegorz Michal Bulczak, 2021. "Use of Google Trends to Predict the Real Estate Market: Evidence from the United Kingdom," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(4), pages 613-631.
    3. Popescu Mioara, 2017. "Modelling prediction of unemployment statistics using web technologies," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Sciendo, vol. 8(3), pages 55-60, December.
    4. Duarte, Pablo & Süßmuth, Bernd, 2018. "Implementing an approximate dynamic factor model to nowcast GDP using sensitivity analysis," Working Papers 152, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    5. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data: A MIDASSO approach," KOF Working papers 15-375, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    7. David Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Economics Series Working Papers 529, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Frédéric Karamé & Yannick Fondeur, 2012. "Can Google Data Help Predict French Youth Unemployment?," Documents de recherche 12-03, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    9. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    10. Matteo Mogliani, 2019. "Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: estimation, selection, and prediction," Working papers 713, Banque de France.
    11. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2021. "Pandemic Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 20401.
    12. Neil R. Ericsson & Erica L. Reisman, 2012. "Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting," Working Papers 2012-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    13. Giacomo Caterini, 2018. "Classifying Firms with Text Mining," DEM Working Papers 2018/09, Department of Economics and Management.
    14. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Globalization Institute Working Papers 26, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2009. "Using Real-Time Output Gaps To Examine Past And Future Policy Choices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 98-110, October.
    16. Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "U.K. Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 41, Bank of Lithuania.
    17. Chauvet, Marcelle & Gabriel, Stuart & Lutz, Chandler, 2016. "Mortgage default risk: New evidence from internet search queries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 91-111.
    18. Livio Fenga, 2020. "Filtering and prediction of noisy and unstable signals: The case of Google Trends data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 281-295, March.
    19. Ulrich Gunter & Irem Önder & Stefan Gindl, 2019. "Exploring the predictive ability of LIKES of posts on the Facebook pages of four major city DMOs in Austria," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 375-401, May.
    20. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    21. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2014. "Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 4574, CESifo.
    22. Damien Challet & Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed, 2015. "Do Google Trend data contain more predictability than price returns?," Post-Print hal-00960875, HAL.
    23. Sayag, Doron & Ben-hur, Dano & Pfeffermann, Danny, 2022. "Reducing revisions in hedonic house price indices by the use of nowcasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 253-266.
    24. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.
    25. Ene Andreea Bianca, 2018. "Distance Education in Romanian Higher Education," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 65-70, May.
    26. Maaß, Christina Heike, 2021. "Nowcast als Forecast: Neue Verfahren der BIP-Prognose in Echtzeit," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Straubhaar, Thomas (ed.), Neuvermessung der Datenökonomie, volume 6, pages 101-127, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    27. Boone, Tonya & Ganeshan, Ram & Jain, Aditya & Sanders, Nada R., 2019. "Forecasting sales in the supply chain: Consumer analytics in the big data era," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 170-180.
    28. Han Liu & Yongjing Wang & Haiyan Song & Ying Liu, 2023. "Measuring tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(5), pages 1302-1327, August.
    29. William Larson, 2015. "Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates," Working Papers 2015-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    30. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  36. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2009. "The long-run determinants of UK wages, 1860-2004," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 5-28, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Hendry David, 2009. "Comment on "Excessive Ambitions" (by Jon Elster)," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-21, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Attila Havas, 2015. "The persistent high-tech myth in the EC policy circles - Implications for the EU10 countries," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1517, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

  38. Luigi Ermini & David F. Hendry, 2008. "Log Income vs. Linear Income: An Application of the Encompassing Principle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 807-827, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  39. David F. Hendry & Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2008. "Guest Editors’ Introduction to Special Issue on Encompassing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 715-719, December.

    Cited by:

    1. D. R. Cox, 2013. "A return to an old paper: ‘Tests of separate families of hypotheses’," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(2), pages 207-215, March.
    2. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.

  40. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.

    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Lea Schneider & Jason E. Smerdon, 2016. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 780, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    3. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2014. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Relationships: An Automated Model Selection Approach with Indicator Saturation," Working Papers 1405, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    4. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Donatella Baiardi & Claudio Morana, 2020. "Climate change awareness: Empirical evidence for the European Union," Working Papers 426, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2021.
    6. Hecq, Alain & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-407.
    7. J James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2010. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Discussion Papers 10-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    8. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    9. Bill Russell & Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2016. "Breaks and the Statistical Process of Inflation: The Case of the ‘Modern’ Phillips Curve," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 294, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    10. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
    11. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," UC3M Working papers. Economics we081810, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    12. Felix Pretis, 2022. "Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 115-144, September.
    13. Luigi Ermini & David F. Hendry, 2008. "Log Income vs. Linear Income: An Application of the Encompassing Principle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 807-827, December.
    14. Liqian Cai & Arnab Bhattacharjee & Roger Calantone & Taps Maiti, 2019. "Variable Selection with Spatially Autoregressive Errors: A Generalized Moments LASSO Estimator," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 146-200, September.
    15. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2014. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 62-91, March.
    16. Campos, Nauro F. & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2021. "The dynamics of core and periphery in the European monetary union: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Carlos Santos & Maria Alberta Oliveira, 2010. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1577-1589.
    18. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    19. André K. Anundsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2015. "Did US consumers ‘save for a rainy day’ before the Great Recession?," Working Paper 2015/08, Norges Bank.
    20. Bent Nielsen & Xiyu Jiao, 2016. "Asymptotic Analysis of Iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators with Varying Cut-offs," Economics Papers 2016-W08, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    21. Bent Jesper Christensen & Nabanita Datta Gupta & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2021. "Measuring the impact of clean energy production on CO2 abatement in Denmark: Upper bound estimation and forecasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(1), pages 118-149, January.
    22. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Step-indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 658, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    24. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Fernandes, Leonardo H.S. & Silva, José W.L. & de Araujo, Fernando H.A. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2023. "Multifractal cross-correlations between green bonds and financial assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    26. Tae-Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Optimal Forecast under Structural Breaks," Working Papers 202208, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    27. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    28. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    29. Roman Frydman & Joshua R. Stillwagon, 2016. "Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter," Working Papers Series 44, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    30. Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2016. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Textos para discussão 433, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    31. Bec, Frédérique & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Nowcasting French GDP in real-time with surveys and “blocked” regressions: Combining forecasts or pooling information?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1021-1042.
    32. Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Ragnar Nymoen & Kari Pedersen & Jon Ivar Sjåberg, 2019. "Estimation of Effects of Recent Macroprudential Policies in a Sample of Advanced Open Economies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-20, May.
    34. Santos, Carlos, 2011. "The euro sovereign debt crisis, determinants of default probabilities and implied ratings in the CDS market: an econometric analysis," MPRA Paper 31341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    36. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    37. David Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Economics Series Working Papers 529, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    38. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2019. "User-Specified General-to-Specific and Indicator Saturation Methods," MPRA Paper 96148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Selecting a Model for Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, June.
    40. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers 2020-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    41. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    42. Peter Jensen, 2010. "Testing the null of a low dimensional growth model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 193-215, February.
    43. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    44. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2014. "Outlier detection algorithms for least squares time series regression," CREATES Research Papers 2014-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    45. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    46. Neil R. Ericsson & Erica L. Reisman, 2012. "Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting," Working Papers 2012-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    47. Vanessa Berenguer-Rico & Soeren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "The analysis of marked and weighted empirical processes of estimated residuals," Discussion Papers 19-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    48. David E. Giles, 2022. "Some Consequences of Including Impulse-Indicator Dummy Variables in Econometric Models," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(2), pages 329-336, June.
    49. Hendry David F & Mizon Grayham E, 2011. "Econometric Modelling of Time Series with Outlying Observations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, February.
    50. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Georgiev, Iliyan, 2013. "Exploiting Infinite Variance Through Dummy Variables In Nonstationary Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(6), pages 1162-1195, December.
    51. Tommaso Proietti & Diego J. Pedregal, 2021. "Seasonality in High Frequency Time Series," CEIS Research Paper 508, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Mar 2021.
    52. Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Priscila Fernandes Ribeiro, 2011. "Levado pelos Fundamentos? Estimando o Desalinhamento Cambial Norte-Americano a partir de Técnicas de Cointegração," Discussion Papers 1674, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    53. Krüger, Jens & Ruths Sion, Sebastian, 2019. "Improving oil price forecasts by sparse VAR methods," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 237, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    54. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Interpreting estimates of forecast bias," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 563-568.
    55. Georgios KOURETAS & Mark E. WOHAR, 2010. "The Dynamics of Inflation: A Study of a Large Number of Countries," EcoMod2010 259600096, EcoMod.
    56. Leighton Vaughan Williams & J. James Reade, 2016. "Prediction Markets, Social Media and Information Efficiency," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 518-556, August.
    57. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    58. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    59. Alexander Chudik & George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Big Data Analytics: A New Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 5824, CESifo.
    60. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
    61. Guillermo Carlomagno & Antoni Espasa, 2021. "Discovering Specific Common Trends in a Large Set of Disaggregates: Statistical Procedures, their Properties and an Empirical Application," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 641-662, June.
    62. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2015. "Forecasting a large set of disaggregates with common trends and outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    63. Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "U.K. Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 41, Bank of Lithuania.
    64. Bill Russell & Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2019. "Breaks and the statistical process of inflation: the case of estimating the ‘modern’ long-run Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1455-1475, May.
    65. Santos, Carlos, 2008. "Impulse saturation break tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 136-143, February.
    66. Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Between Institutions and Global Forces: Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-54, January.
    67. Igor Pelipas, 2011. "Structural Breaks and Dynamic Characteristics of Inflation and Growth Rates of Monetary Aggregates," BEROC Working Paper Series 15, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    68. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    69. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2013. "Outlier Detection in Regression Using an Iterated One-Step Approximation to the Huber-Skip Estimator," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, May.
    70. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "TIPS and the VIX: Non-linear Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation," Working Papers 1502, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    71. M. Mogliani & T. Ferrière, 2016. "Rationality of announcements, business cycle asymmetry, and predictability of revisions. The case of French GDP," Working papers 600, Banque de France.
    72. Møller, Niels Framroze & Andersen, Laura Mørch & Hansen, Lars Gårn & Jensen, Carsten Lynge, 2019. "Can pecuniary and environmental incentives via SMS messaging make households adjust their electricity demand to a fluctuating production?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1050-1058.
    73. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    74. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    75. Panday, Anjan, 2015. "Impact of monetary policy on exchange market pressure: The case of Nepal," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-71.
    76. László Kónya & Bekzod Abdullaev, 2015. "Does Ricardian equivalence hold in Australia? A revision based on testing super exogeneity with impulse-indicator saturation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 423-448, September.
    77. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2010. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Economics Series Working Papers 474, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    78. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    79. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara & Hecq, Alain, 2013. "A general to specific approach for constructing composite business cycle indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 367-374.
    80. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2020. "Identifying the Causal Role of CO2 during the Ice Ages," Economics Series Working Papers 898, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    81. Søren Johansen & Lukasz Gatarek, 2014. "Optimal hedging with the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," CREATES Research Papers 2014-40, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    82. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    83. Pretis, Felix, 2020. "Econometric modelling of climate systems: The equivalence of energy balance models and cointegrated vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 256-273.
    84. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2014. "Model selection in under-specified equations facing breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 286-293.
    85. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    86. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    87. Kristine Wika Haraldsen & Ragnar Nymoen & Victoria Sparrman, 2019. "Labour market institutions, shocks and the employment rate," Discussion Papers 901, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    88. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    89. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2015. "Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: the Indicator Saturation Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113137, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    90. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    91. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    92. Ahumada, H. & Cornejo, M., 2016. "Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-848.
    93. Gamber, Edward N. & Liebner, Jeffrey P., 2017. "Comment on “How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?”," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 560-562.
    94. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 895-914, December.
    95. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    96. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments, interdependence, crises, and currency wars: an empirical assessment," Textos para discussão 348, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    97. Felix Pretis & Michael Mann & Robert Kaufmann, 2015. "Testing competing models of the temperature hiatus: assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 705-718, August.
    98. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2013. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Assessing the Resilience of the Banking Sector Used by the Czech National Bank," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(6), pages 505-536, December.
    99. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    100. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
    101. Hendry, David F., 2011. "On adding over-identifying instrumental variables to simultaneous equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 68-70, April.
    102. Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, 2023. "Long run non-linearity in CO2 emissions: the I(2) cointegration model and the environmental Kuznets curve," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 899-931, November.
    103. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
    104. Blake LeBaron, 2013. "Heterogeneous Agents and Long Horizon Features of Asset Prices," Working Papers 63, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    105. Haraldsen, Kristine Wika & Ragnar, Nymoen & Sparrman, Victoria, 2019. "Labour market institutions, shocks and the employment rate," Memorandum 6/2019, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    106. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Moayad H. Al Rasasi & Salah S. Alsayaary & Ziyadh Alfawzan, 2022. "Money demand under a fixed exchange rate regime: the case of Saudi Arabia," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 385-411, December.
    107. Niels Framroze Møller & Laura Mørch Andersen & Lars Gårn Hansen & Carsten Lynge Jensen, 2018. "Can pecuniary and environmental incentives via SMS messaging make households adjust their intra-day electricity demand to a fluctuating production?," IFRO Working Paper 2018/06, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    108. Loann David Denis Desboulets, 2018. "A Review on Variable Selection in Regression Analysis," Post-Print hal-01954386, HAL.
    109. Igor Pelipas, 2012. "Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistance in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 21, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    110. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    111. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
    112. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Testing Banking Sector Resilience Used by the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2012/11, Czech National Bank.
    113. Pollack, Adam B. & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2022. "Increasing storm risk, structural defense, and house prices in the Florida Keys," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    114. Castle, Jennifer L. & Kurita, Takamitsu, 2021. "A dynamic econometric analysis of the dollar-pound exchange rate in an era of structural breaks and policy regime shifts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    115. Pellini, Elisabetta, 2021. "Estimating income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand with Autometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    116. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.
    117. Ruqayya Aljifri, 2020. "The Macroeconomy, Oil and the Stock Market: A Multiple Equation Time Series Analysis of Saudi Arabia," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-27, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    118. Neil R. Ericsson & Mohammed H. I. Dore & Hassan Butt, 2022. "Detecting and Quantifying Structural Breaks in Climate," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, November.
    119. Andrew B. Martinez, 2011. "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers 2011-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    120. Bjerregaard, Casper & Møller, Niels Framroze, 2022. "The influence of electricity prices on saving electricity in production: Automated multivariate time-series analyses for 99 Danish trades and industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    121. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
    122. Pretis, Felix, 2021. "Exogeneity in climate econometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    123. Frydman, Roman & Stillwagon, Joshua R., 2018. "Fundamental factors and extrapolation in stock-market expectations: The central role of structural change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 189-198.
    124. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.
    125. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    126. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "From the General to the Specific," Discussion Papers 11-18, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    127. Guillaume Chevillon & Takamitsu Kurita, 2023. "What Does it Take to Control Global Temperatures? A toolbox for estimating the impact of economic policies on climate," Papers 2307.05818, arXiv.org.
    128. Vassilios Bazinas & Bent Nielsen, 2022. "Causal Transmission in Reduced-Form Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, March.
    129. James Reade & Genaro Sucarrat, 2016. "General-to-Specific (GETS) Modelling And Indicator Saturation With The R Package Gets," Economics Series Working Papers 794, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    130. Nauro F Campos & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2020. "The United Kingdom and the stability of the Euro area: From Maastricht to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1792-1808, July.
    131. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    132. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    133. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2014. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-312.
    134. Nymoen, Ragnar & Pedersen, Kari & Sjåberg, Jon Ivar, 2018. "Estimation of effects of recent macroprudential policies in a sample of advanced open economies," Memorandum 5/2018, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    135. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2013. "Forecasting fiscal variables: Only a strong growth plan can sustain the Greek austerity programs - Evidence from simultaneous and structural models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    136. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2022. "Structural relationships between cryptocurrency prices and monetary policy indicators," Economics Series Working Papers 972, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    137. Xiyu Jiao & Felix Pretis, 2022. "Testing the Presence of Outliers in Regression Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1452-1484, December.
    138. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2014. "Desalinhamentos Cambiais, Interdependência, Crises, Guerras cambiais: Uma avaliação empírica," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.
    139. Daniel O. Beltran & Valentin Bolotnyy & Elizabeth C. Klee, 2015. "Un-Networking: The Evolution of Networks in the Federal Funds Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    140. Konstantin Belyaev & Aelita Belyaeva & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Martin Vojtek, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors as Drivers of LGD Prediction: Empirical Evidence from the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2012/12, Czech National Bank.
    141. Apergis, Nicholas & Pan, Wei-Fong & Reade, James & Wang, Shixuan, 2023. "Modelling Australian electricity prices using indicator saturation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    142. Ryan-Collins, Josh & Werner, Richard A. & Castle, Jennifer, 2016. "A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-176.
    143. Ericsson Neil R., 2016. "Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 377-398, September.
    144. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    145. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James & Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 2019. "When are prediction market prices most informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 420-428.
    146. William Larson, 2015. "Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates," Working Papers 2015-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

  41. Clements Michael P. & Hendry David F., 2008. "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Gunnar Bårdsen & Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 629-639, September.
    2. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Lester C. Hunt & Ceyhun I. Mikayilov, 2016. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in Azerbaijan Using Cointegration Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-31, December.
    3. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2015. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. David Mortimer Krainz, 2011. "An Evaluation of the Forecasting Performance of Three Econometric Models for the Eurozone and the USA," WIFO Working Papers 399, WIFO.
    5. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    6. Katarina Juselius, 2011. "On the Role of Theory and Evidence in Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 17, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Skrove Falch, Nina & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011. "The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-36.
    8. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2013. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 920, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
    10. Ericsson Neil R., 2008. "Comment on "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World" (by Michael Clements and David Hendry)," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, October.
    11. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Martínez-Ovando Juan Carlos & Walker Stephen G., 2011. "Time-series Modelling, Stationarity and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods," Working Papers 2011-08, Banco de México.
    13. Katarina Juselius, 2009. "Time to reject the privileging of economic theory over empirical evidence? A Reply to Lawson (2009)," Discussion Papers 09-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    14. David Hendry, 2010. "Climate Change: Lessons for our Future from the Distant Past," Economics Series Working Papers 485, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Boris Salazar, 2016. "Mandelbrot, Fama and the emergence of econophysics," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 35(69), pages 637-662, April.
    16. Carl H. Korkpoe & Peterson Owusu Junior, 2018. "Behaviour of Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index Returns - An Asymmetric GARCH and News Impact Effects Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 68(1), pages 26-42, January-M.
    17. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.

  42. Aris Spanos & David F. Hendry & J. James Reade, 2008. "Linear vs. Log‐linear Unit‐Root Specification: An Application of Mis‐specification Encompassing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 829-847, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Ermini & David F. Hendry, 2008. "Log Income vs. Linear Income: An Application of the Encompassing Principle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 807-827, December.
    2. Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon & Chiara Monfardini, 2008. "Simulation Encompassing: Testing Non‐nested Hypotheses," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 781-806, December.
    3. Katarina Juselius & Niels Framroze Møller & Finn Tarp, 2011. "The Long-Run Impact of Foreign Aid in 36 African Countries: Insights from Multivariate Time Series Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-051, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2013. "On the Decomposition of Regional Stabilization and Redistribution," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-910, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David Hendry, 2019. "Some forecasting principles from the M4 competition," Economics Papers 2019-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

  43. Hendry, David F. & Massmann, Michael, 2007. "Co-Breaking: Recent Advances and a Synopsis of the Literature," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 33-51, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Trends, cycles and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 3, pages 45-60, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2008. "Modelling short-term interest rate spreads in the euro money market," Working Paper Series 982, European Central Bank.
    3. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    4. Philip Bertram & Robinson Kruse & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2013. "Fractional integration versus level shifts: the case of realized asset correlations," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 977-991, November.
    5. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    6. Becker, Janis & Leschinski, Christian & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2019. "Robust Multivariate Local Whittle Estimation and Spurious Fractional Cointegration," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-660, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    7. Håvard Hungnes, 2010. "Identifying Structural Breaks in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 551-565, August.
    8. Jiménez, Miguel A. & Ramírez, Francisco A., 2015. "Incidencia de los Choques Externos y Domésticos sobre la Dinámica de la Inflación: Evidencia a partir de un VAR Bayesiano [Incidence of External and Domestic Shocks on Inflation Dynamics: Evidence ," MPRA Paper 68334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. David Hendry & John Muellbauer, 2017. "The future of macroeconomics: Macro theory and models at the Bank of England," Economics Series Working Papers 832, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2015. "Common Feature Analysis of Economic Time Series: An Overview and Recent Developments," CEIS Research Paper 355, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2015.
    11. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    12. Holt, Matthew T. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2020. "Global hemispheric temperatures and co-shifting: A vector shifting-mean autoregressive analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 198-215.
    13. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    14. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq & Elisa Voisin, 2022. "Detecting common bubbles in multivariate mixed causal-noncausal models," Papers 2207.11557, arXiv.org.
    15. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2008. "Cobreaking of Stock Prices and Contagion," Working Papers 537, Hanken School of Economics.
    16. Schreiber, Sven, 2009. "Explaining shifts in the unemployment rate with productivity slowdowns and accelerations: a co-breaking approach," Kiel Working Papers 1505, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2010. "Co-breaking, cointegration, and weak exogeneity: Modelling aggregate consumption in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 574-584, March.
    18. SUCARRAT, Genaro, 2006. "The first stage in Hendry’s reduction theory revisited," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2006082, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    19. Matteo Mogliani & Giovanni Urga & Carlos Winograd, 2009. "Monetary disorder and financial regimes - The demand for money in Argentina, 1900-2006," Working Papers halshs-00575107, HAL.
    20. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    21. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
    22. Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "A Recursive Monte Carlo Study of Structural-Break Sensitivity of Adjustment Coefficients in Cointegrated VAR Systems," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 251-270, June.
    23. Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang, 2023. "Forecasting inflation: The use of dynamic factor analysis and nonlinear combinations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 514-529, April.
    24. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    25. Volz, Ulrich & Reade, J. James, 2011. "Chinese Monetary Policy and the Dollar Peg," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48740, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    26. Sophie van Huellen & Duo Qin & Shan Lu & Huiwen Wang & Qingchao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2019. "Modelling Opportunity Cost Effects in Money Demand due to Openness," Working Papers 225, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    27. Ricardo Bebczuk & Maria Lorena Garegnani, 2012. "Real State as Housing and as Financial Investment: A First Assessment for Argentina," IIE, Working Papers 095, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    28. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    29. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    30. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    31. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    32. Balázs Égert & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Evžen Kočenda & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2006. "Structural changes in Central and Eastern European economies: breaking news or breaking the ice?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 85-103, June.
    33. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    34. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
    35. Blake LeBaron, 2013. "Heterogeneous Agents and Long Horizon Features of Asset Prices," Working Papers 63, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    36. Morana, Claudio, 2009. "On the macroeconomic causes of exchange rate volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 328-350.
    37. Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2014. "Identification Using Stability Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 1799-1851, September.
    38. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
    39. Noriega, Antonio E. & Soria, Luis M. & Velázquez, Ramón, 2008. "International evidence on stochastic and deterministic monetary neutrality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1261-1275, November.
    40. James Duffy & David Hendry, 2017. "The Impact of Integrated Measurement Errors on Modelling Long-run Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics Series Working Papers 818, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    41. Takamitsu Kurita & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "Partial Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models with Structural Breaks in Deterministic Terms," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-35, October.
    42. Elbakidze, Levan & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara, 2016. "Substitution in electricity generation: A state level analysis of structural change from hydraulic fracturing technology," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235780, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    43. Vassilios Bazinas & Bent Nielsen, 2022. "Causal Transmission in Reduced-Form Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, March.
    44. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    45. Heather M Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "VARs, Cointegration and Common Cycle Restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    46. Burridge, Peter & Iacone, Fabrizio & Lazarová, Štěpána, 2015. "Spatial effects in a common trend model of US city-level CPI," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-98.
    47. Takamitsu Kurita & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Partial cointegrated vector autoregressive models with structural breaks in deterministic terms," Economics Papers 2018-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    48. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2010. "Stock market linkages and financial contagion: A cobreaking analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 157-166, May.
    49. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  44. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.

    Cited by:

    1. Igor Masten & Massimiliano Marcellino & Anindya Banerjeey, 2009. "Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," RSCAS Working Papers 2009/32, European University Institute.
    2. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    3. Guillaume Chevillon, 2006. "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 257, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2009. "Multi-step forecasting in emerging economies: An investigation of the South African GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 602-628, July.
    5. Goodness C. Aye & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2013. "Forecasting the US Real Private Residential Fixed Investment Using Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201348, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    7. Gabriel Pino & J. D. Tena & Antoni Espasa, 2016. "Geographical disaggregation of sectoral inflation. Econometric modelling of the Euro area and Spanish economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 799-815, February.
    8. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi, 2012. "Implications of Cointegration for Forecasting: A Review and an Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(1), pages 87-118, October.
    10. Edith Skriner, 2008. "Forecasting Global Flows," FIW Working Paper series 009, FIW.
    11. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Jennifer L. Castle, 2022. "Machine Learning Dynamic Switching Approach to Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 129-157, July.
    12. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 163-179, April.
    14. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    15. Kilian, Lutz & Alquist, Ron & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett, 2008. "Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 408, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Luca Nocciola, "undated". "Finite sample forecast properties and window length under breaks in cointegrated systems," Discussion Papers 19/07, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    19. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    20. Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Working Papers 0707, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
    21. Diego Winkelried, 2014. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1181-1196, June.
    22. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Selecting a Model for Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, June.
    23. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    24. Neil R. Ericsson & Erica L. Reisman, 2012. "Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting," Working Papers 2012-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    25. Robinson Durán & Evelyn Garrido & Carolina Godoy & Juan de Dios Tena, 2012. "Predicción de la inflación en México con modelos desagregados por componente," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 133-167.
    26. Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008. "Forecast combination and the Bank of England's suite of statistical forecasting models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 772-792, July.
    27. Hendry David F & Mizon Grayham E, 2011. "Econometric Modelling of Time Series with Outlying Observations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, February.
    28. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    29. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Md Altab Hossin & Shuwen Xiong & David Alemzero & Hermas Abudu, 2023. "Analyzing the Progress of China and the World in Achieving Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 13," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, September.
    31. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    32. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
    33. David F. Hendry, 2020. "First in, First out: Econometric Modelling of UK Annual CO_2 Emissions, 1860–2017," Economics Papers 2020-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    34. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    35. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012. "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 526-551.
    36. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    37. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    38. Juan de Dios Tena & Antoni Espasa & Gabriel Pino, 2010. "Forecasting Spanish Inflation Using the Maximum Disaggregation Level by Sectors and Geographical Areas," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 33(2), pages 181-204, April.
    39. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    40. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    41. Ahumada, H. & Cornejo, M., 2016. "Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-848.
    42. Winkelried, Diego, 2012. "Traspaso del tipo de cambio y metas de inflación en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 9-24.
    43. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Economics Papers 2021-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    44. Skriner, Edith, 2007. "Forecasting Global Flows," Economics Series 214, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    45. Takamitsu Kurita & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023. "Johansen Test with Fourier-Type Smooth Nonlinear Trends in Cointegrating Relations," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1216, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    46. Takamitsu Kurita & Patrick James, 2022. "The Canadian–US dollar exchange rate over the four decades of the post‐Bretton Woods float: An econometric study allowing for structural breaks," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 856-883, July.
    47. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.
    48. Andrew B. Martinez, 2011. "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers 2011-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    49. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    50. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
    51. Michael S. Lee-Browne, 2019. "Estimating monetary policy rules in small open economies," Working Papers 2019-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    52. Yuxuan Huang, 2016. "Forecasting the USD/CNY Exchange Rate under Different Policy Regimes," Working Papers 2016-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    53. Papailias, Fotis & Thomakos, Dimitrios, 2017. "EXSSA: SSA-based reconstruction of time series via exponential smoothing of covariance eigenvalues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 214-229.
    54. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    55. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2022. "Structural relationships between cryptocurrency prices and monetary policy indicators," Economics Series Working Papers 972, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    56. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2023. "An artificial intelligence approach to forecasting when there are structural breaks: a reinforcement learning-based framework for fast switching," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1729-1759, October.
    57. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    58. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    59. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  45. Hendry, David F., 2006. "A comment on "Specification searches in spatial econometrics: The relevance of Hendry's methodology"," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 309-312, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Montmartin & Marcos Herrera & Nadine Massard, 2018. "The impact of the French policy mix on business R&D: How geography matters," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01847012, HAL.
    2. Torben Klarl, 2009. "Modelling the folk theorem of spatial economics: a heterogeneous regional growth model," Working Papers 071, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    3. Pedro V. Amaral & Luc Anselin, 2014. "Finite sample properties of Moran's I test for spatial autocorrelation in tobit models," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 773-781, November.
    4. Vitor Joao Pereira Domingues Martinho, 2011. "Spatial Autocorrelation and Verdoorn Law in the Portuguese NUTs III," Papers 1110.5578, arXiv.org.
    5. Philip Kostov, 2010. "Model Boosting for Spatial Weighting Matrix Selection in Spatial Lag Models," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 37(3), pages 533-549, June.
    6. Pedro Amaral & Luc Anselin & Daniel Arribas-Bel, 2013. "Testing for spatial error dependence in probit models," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 91-101, July.
    7. Benjamin Montmartin & Marcos Herrera & Nadine Massard, 2017. "R&D Policy regimes in France: New Evidence from a spatio-temporal Analysis," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-22, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    8. Benjamin Montmartin & Marcos Herrera & Nadine Massard, 2015. "R&D Policies in France: New Evidence from a NUTS3 Spatial Analysis," GREDEG Working Papers 2015-26, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    9. Claudio Djissey Shikida & Leonardo Monteiro Monasterio & Ari Francisco de Araujo Jr. & Andre Carraro & Otávio Menezes Damé, 2009. ""It is the economy, companheiro!": an empirical analysis of Lula's re-election based on municipal data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 976-991.

  46. Carlos Santos & David Hendry, 2006. "Saturation in Autoregressive Models," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 24, pages 8-19, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Santos & Maria Alberta Oliveira, 2010. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1577-1589.
    2. Santos, Carlos, 2008. "Impulse saturation break tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 136-143, February.
    3. László Kónya & Bekzod Abdullaev, 2015. "Does Ricardian equivalence hold in Australia? A revision based on testing super exogeneity with impulse-indicator saturation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 423-448, September.
    4. Igor Pelipas, 2012. "Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistance in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 21, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    5. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  47. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Evaluating a Model by Forecast Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 931-956, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
    2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 13221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," UC3M Working papers. Economics we081810, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    4. Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra & Hao Yu, 2015. "Tracking Chinese CPI inflation in real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1619-1641, June.
    5. Patrick Minford & Yongdeng Xu & Peng Zhou, 2015. "How Good are Out of Sample Forecasting Tests on DSGE Models?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(3), pages 333-351, November.
    6. Odeck, James & Welde, Morten, 2017. "The accuracy of toll road traffic forecasts: An econometric evaluation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 73-85.
    7. Clements, Michael P., 2016. "Real-time factor model forecasting and the effects of instability," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 661-675.
    8. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    9. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
    10. Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
    11. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.

  48. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2005. "Regression Models with Data‐based Indicator Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 571-595, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  49. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 32-61, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  50. Chevillon, Guillaume & Hendry, David F., 2005. "Non-parametric direct multi-step estimation for forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 201-218.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  51. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    2. Propper, Carol & Janke, Katharina & Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder & Shields, Michael A, 2020. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Health in Britain: Aggregation, Dynamics and Local Area Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 14507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi‐Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, September.
    4. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett, 2008. "Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 408, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Chrystalleni Aristidou & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US," Discussion Papers 2015/13, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Janke, Katharina & Lee, Kevin & Propper, Carol & Shields, Kalvinder & Shields, Michael A., 2023. "Economic conditions and health: Local effects, national effect and local area heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 801-828.
    7. Georgios Papadopoulos & Dionysios Chionis & Nikolaos P. Rachaniotis, 2018. "Macro-financial linkages during tranquil and crisis periods: evidence from stressed economies," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(2), pages 142-166, May.
    8. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    11. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
    13. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.
    14. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  52. Granger, Clive W.J. & Hendry, David F., 2005. "A Dialogue Concerning A New Instrument For Econometric Modeling," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 278-297, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Pesaran, Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Real-Time Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 212-231, February.
    2. Hassler, Uwe, 2010. "Testing regression coefficients after model selection through sign restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 220-223, May.
    3. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Marquez, Jaime, 2006. "Estimating elasticities for U.S. trade in services," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 276-307, March.
    5. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-69.
    6. Sean Fahle & Jaime R. Marquez & Charles P. Thomas, 2008. "Measuring U.S. international relative prices: a WARP view of the world," International Finance Discussion Papers 917, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2014. "Model selection in under-specified equations facing breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 286-293.
    8. Jaime R. Marquez, 2005. "Estimating elasticities for U.S. trade in services," International Finance Discussion Papers 836, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. David F. Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2007. "Selecting a Regression Saturated by Indicators," Discussion Papers 07-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Hansen, Bruce E., 2005. "Challenges For Econometric Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 60-68, February.
    11. Marcin Blazejowski & Pawel Kufel & Tadeusz Kufel, 2009. "Automatic Procedure of Building Congruent Dynamic Model in Gretl," EHUCHAPS, in: Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza & Petr Mariel & María Victoria Esteban (ed.), Econometrics with gretl. Proceedings of the gretl Conference 2009, edition 1, chapter 5, pages 75-89, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    12. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2011. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

  53. David F. Hendry, 2004. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for Clive W. J. Granger," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 187-213, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    2. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    3. James Davidson, 2013. "Cointegration and error correction," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 7, pages 165-188, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Massimo Franchi & Paolo Paruolo, 2019. "A general inversion theorem for cointegration," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1176-1201, November.
    5. Peter Hans Matthews, 2004. "Paradise Lost and Found? The Econometric Contributions of Clive W.J. Granger and Robert F. Engle," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0416, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.

  54. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Pooling of forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  55. David F. Hendry & Hans‐Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 799-810, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  56. Hendry, David F., 2003. "J. Denis Sargan And The Origins Of Lse Econometric Methodology," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 457-480, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Anya McGuirk & Aris Spanos, 2009. "Revisiting Error‐Autocorrelation Correction: Common Factor Restrictions and Granger Non‐Causality," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 273-294, April.
    2. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," UC3M Working papers. Economics we081810, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    3. Spanos, Aris, 2008. "The 'Pre-Eminence of Theory' versus the 'General-to-Specific' Cointegrated VAR Perspectives in Macro-Econometric Modeling," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Aris Spanos, 2018. "Mis†Specification Testing In Retrospect," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 541-577, April.
    5. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    6. Duo Qin & Yanqun Zhang, 2013. "A History of Polyvalent Structural Parameters: the Case of Instrument Variable Estimators," Working Papers 183, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    7. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Qin, Duo, 2015. "Resurgence of the endogeneity-backed instrumental variable methods," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-35.
    9. David F. Hendry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2017. "John Denis Sargan at the London School of Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2082, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "Vision and Influence in Econometrics: John Denis Sargan," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1393, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Duo Qin, 2010. "Modelling of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff from the Perspective of the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 661, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Econometric reduction theory and philosophy," UC3M Working papers. Economics we091005, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    13. James Reade & Genaro Sucarrat, 2016. "General-to-Specific (GETS) Modelling And Indicator Saturation With The R Package Gets," Economics Series Working Papers 794, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Rahmanov, Ramiz, 2014. "A Historical Sketch of Macroeconometrics," MPRA Paper 56869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Qin, Duo, 2014. "Resurgence of instrument variable estimation and fallacy of endogeneity," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-42, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

  57. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  58. Julia Campos & David F. Hendry & Hans‐Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Consistent Model Selection by an Automatic Gets Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 803-819, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Rodriguez, Abel & Puggioni, Gavino, 2010. "Mixed frequency models: Bayesian approaches to estimation and prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 293-311, April.
    2. Steven F. Lehrer & Tian Xie, 2022. "The Bigger Picture: Combining Econometrics with Analytics Improves Forecasts of Movie Success," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 189-210, January.
    3. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
    4. Dalibor Roháč, 2012. "On economists and garbagemen: Reflections on Šťastný (2010)," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 173-183, June.
    5. Carlos Santos & Maria Alberta Oliveira, 2010. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1577-1589.
    6. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga & Joel Correa da Rosa, 2017. "Variable selection and forecasting via automated methods for linear models: LASSO/adaLASSO and Autometrics," Post-Print halshs-00917797, HAL.
    7. David Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 337-339, April.
    8. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2008. "Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 368-385.
    9. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2020. "Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-03, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2014. "The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 181-192.
    11. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga, 2013. "Comparing variable selection techniques for linear regression: LASSO and Autometrics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13080, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    12. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Selecting a Model for Forecasting," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, June.
    13. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers 2020-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    14. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Papers 2004-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. Eduardo Acosta-González & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, 2007. "Model selection via genetic algorithms illustrated with cross-country growth data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 313-337, September.
    16. Reinhold Heinlein & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates: A Balanced Two-Country Cointegrated VAR Model Approach," Studies in Economics 1321, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    17. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga & Joel Correa da Rosa, 2017. "Variable selection and forecasting via automated methods for linear models: LASSO/adaLASSO and Autometrics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00917797, HAL.
    18. SANTOS, Carlos & OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta, 2007. "Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    19. Steven Lehrer & Tian Xie, 2016. "Box Office Buzz: Does Social Media Data Steal the Show from Model Uncertainty When Forecasting for Hollywood?," NBER Working Papers 22959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    21. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2010. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Economics Series Working Papers 474, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    22. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.
    23. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    24. Khan, Muhammad Arshad, 2015. "Modelling and forecasting the demand for natural gas in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1145-1159.
    25. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021. "Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.
    26. Xie, Tian, 2017. "Heteroscedasticity-robust model screening: A useful toolkit for model averaging in big data analytics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 119-122.
    27. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2011. "Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 239-250.
    28. Heinlein, Reinhold & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2012. "On the construction of two-country cointegrated VAR models with an application to the UK and US," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62310, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    29. Jennifer Castle & Xiaochuan Qin & W. Robert Reed, 2011. "Using Model Selection Algorthims to Obtain Reliable Coefficient Estimates," Working Papers in Economics 11/03, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    30. João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte & Marta Simões, 2011. "Inequality and Growth in Portugal: a time series analysis," GEMF Working Papers 2011-11, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    31. Peter Winker & Dietmar Maringer, 2004. "Optimal Lag Structure Selection in VEC-Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: New Directions in Macromodelling, pages 213-234, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    32. David F. Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2007. "Selecting a Regression Saturated by Indicators," Discussion Papers 07-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    33. Costantini, Mauro & Kunst, Robert M., 2011. "On the Usefulness of the Diebold-Mariano Test in the Selection of Prediction Models," Economics Series 276, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    34. Reinhold Heinlein & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2011. "Effects of monetary policy on the $/£ exchange rate. Is there a 'delayed overshooting puzzle'?," Studies in Economics 1124, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    35. Cunha, Ronan & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Automatic model selection for forecasting Brazilian stock returns," Textos para discussão 398, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    36. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    37. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  59. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2002. "Modelling methodology and forecast failure," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 319-344, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2012. "Modelling the impact of aggregate financial shocks external to the Chinese economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    4. WAN, Shui-Ki & WANG, Shin-Huei & WOO, Chi-Keung, 2012. "Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012039, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
    6. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
    7. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Predicting stock returns in the presence of COVID-19 pandemic: The role of health news," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 637-661, October.
    9. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. David Hendry & Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Model Identification and Non-unique Structure," Economics Papers 2002-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    11. Timmermann, Allan & Elliott, Graham, 2007. "Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Rishabh Choudhary & Chetan Ghate & Md Arbaj Meman, 2023. "Forecasting Core Inflation in India: A Four-Step Approach," IEG Working Papers 461, Institute of Economic Growth.
    13. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
    14. G. Solomon Osho, 2019. "A General Framework for Time Series Forecasting Model Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-ARIMA and Transfer Functions," International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(6), pages 1-23, November.
    15. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Rachel Sebudde, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-17, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    16. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    17. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Tannura, Michael A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2008. "Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 37501, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    19. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2009. "Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 7183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
    21. Carrera, Cesar & Ledesma, Alan, 2015. "Proyección de la inflación agregada con modelos de vectores autorregresivos bayesianos," Working Papers 2015-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    22. Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Evaluating a Central Bank’s Recent Forecast Failure," Memorandum 22/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    23. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    24. Cesar Carrera & Alan Ledesma, 2015. "Aggregate Inflation Forecast with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 50, Peruvian Economic Association.
    25. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2007. "Automatic Leading Indicators (ALIs) versus Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs): Comparison of Inflation and GDP growth Forecasting," EcoMod2007 23900072, EcoMod.
    26. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    27. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Testing for Structural Stability of Factor Augmented Forecasting Models," Departmental Working Papers 201314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    28. Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & Michael P. Clements & Jeremy Smith, 2003. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 359-375.
    29. Heather M Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "VARs, Cointegration and Common Cycle Restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    30. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  60. David F. Hendry, 2002. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation and the Lucas Critique," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 21-40.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  61. David F. Hendry, 2002. "Applied Econometrics without Sinning," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 591-604, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Ioan PARTACHI & Madalina – Gabriela Anghel & Cristina SACALA & Andreea Ioana MARINESCU, 2016. "Statistical-econometric Model for dispersion Analysis," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(5), pages 94-102, May.
    2. Ducanes, , Geoffrey & Cagas, Marie Anne & Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn, 2005. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of the Philippine Economy," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 62, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU, 2016. "Equilibrium and auto regression models used for macroeconomic prognosis," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(7), pages 70-78, July.
    4. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas F. Quising, 2005. "Empirical Assessment of Sustainability and Feasibility of Government Debt: The Philippines Case," Working Papers 527, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2005. "The First Fifty Years of Modern Econometrics," Working Papers 544, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.

  62. David F. Hendry & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2001. "A special issue in memory of John Denis Sargan: studies in empirical macroeconometrics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 197-202.

    Cited by:

    1. Yasin Yılmaz & Abdullah Miraç Bükey, 2021. "Ekonomik Büyüme ve Enflasyonist Baskının Grevlere Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(80), pages 365-402, June.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable?: Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 982, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. David F. Hendry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2017. "John Denis Sargan at the London School of Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2082, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Ooms, M., 2008. "Trends in Applied Econometrics Software Development 1985-2008, an analysis of Journal of Applied Econometrics research articles, software reviews, data and code," Serie Research Memoranda 0021, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    6. T. P. Sinha, 2022. "A Macro-Econometric VAR Model of India Incorporating Black Income," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 629-660, September.
    7. Tsermenidis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Προσδιοριστικοί Παράγοντες Της Εθνικής Αποταμίευσης Κατά Την Περίοδο 1990-2010 Και Μέτρα Ενίσχυσης Της Οικονομικής Ανάπτυξης [The Determinants of National Savings in Greece during the period 1990-2," MPRA Paper 56773, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  63. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "An Historical Perspective on Forecast Errors," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 177, pages 100-112, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    2. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

  64. Michael P. Clements & David F.Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting with difference-stationary and trend-stationary models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  65. Hendry, David F., 2001. "Achievements and challenges in econometric methodology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 7-10, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Axel Grossmann & Gökçe Soydemir, 2006. "The impact of productivity adjusted deviations from PPP on the U.S. inbound FDI: Evidence from Japan, U.K. and Germany," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(2), pages 140-154, June.
    2. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Iven Silva Valpassos, 2018. "Discretionary fiscal policy and sovereign risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1343-1365.
    3. Roberto Meurer & Hoyêdo Nunes Lins, 2018. "The effects of the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games on Brazilian international travel receipts," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(4), pages 486-491, June.
    4. Ana Jordânia De Oliveira & Gabriel Caldas Montes & Rodolfo Nicolay, 2018. "Fiscal Credibility And Central Bank Credibility: How Do We Build Them? Empirical Evidence From Brazil," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 43, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Marc Simpson & Jose Moreno & Teofilo Ozuna, 2012. "The makings of an information leader: the intraday price discovery process for individual stocks in the DJIA," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 347-365, April.
    6. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Souza, Ivan, 2020. "Sovereign default risk, debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca Nicolay, 2015. "Central bank’s perception on inflation and inflation expectations of experts," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1142-1158, November.
    8. Caldas Montes, Gabriel & Ferrari Ferreira, Caio, 2019. "Effect of monetary policy credibility on the fear of floating: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 981-1004.
    9. G. C. Montes & L. V. Oliveira & A. Curi & R. T. F. Nicolay, 2016. "Effects of transparency, monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 590-607, February.
    10. Tao Sun, 2004. "Forecasting Thailand’s Core Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2004/090, International Monetary Fund.
    11. André Filipe Guedes Almeida & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Effects of crime and violence on business confidence: evidence from Rio de Janeiro," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1669-1688, May.
    12. Grossmann, Axel & Simpson, Marc W. & Brown, Cynthia J., 2009. "The impact of deviation from relative purchasing power parity equilibrium on U.S. foreign direct investment," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 521-550, May.
    13. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "Vision and Influence in Econometrics: John Denis Sargan," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1393, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Addison, Douglas M., 2003. "Productivity growth and product variety : gains from imitation and education," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3023, The World Bank.
    15. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Almeida, André Filipe Guedes, 2016. "Compromisso fiscal, expectativas empresariais e produção industrial: o caso brasileiro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 70(2), July.
    16. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca & Acar, Tatiana, 2019. "Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 38-60.
    17. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo henrique Luna, 2021. "Effects of discretionary fiscal policy and fiscal communication on fiscal credibility: Empirical evidence from Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1486-1500.
    18. Danilov, D.L. & Magnus, J.R., 2001. "On the Harm that Pretesting Does," Discussion Paper 2001-37, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    19. Gabriel Caldas Montes & José Américo Pereira Antunes & Alexei Ferreira Araújo, 2021. "Effects of monetary policy and credibility on financial intermediation: evidence from the Brazilian banking sector," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1191-1219, March.
    20. Roberto Meurer, 2011. "Measuring the impact of financial flows on macroeconomic variables: the case of Brazil after the 2008 crisis," Working Papers 0117, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    21. Danilov, Dmitry & Magnus, J.R.Jan R., 2004. "On the harm that ignoring pretesting can cause," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 27-46, September.

  66. Beyer, Andreas & Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F, 2001. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages 102-121, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  67. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  68. David F. Hendry, 2001. "Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 255-275.

    Cited by:

    1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    2. Costas Milas, 2009. "Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 168-182, January.
    3. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J. & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Price-level uncertainty and instability in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-16.
    4. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
    5. Ellington, Michael & Milas, Costas, 2019. "Global liquidity, money growth and UK inflation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-74.
    6. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper 2004/10, Norges Bank.
    7. Juan De Dios Tena & Jorge Dresdner & Iván Araya, 2012. "A Multimarket Approach For Estimating A New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Revista de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza, Departamento de Estructura Economica y Economia Publica, vol. 20(1), pages 49-68, Spring.
    8. Gerardo Esquivel & Raúl Razo, 2003. "Fuentes de la inflación en México, 1989-2000: Un análisis multicausal de corrección de errores," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 18(2), pages 181-226.
    9. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    11. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Yang, Shu-Ling & Chang, Chong-Chuo, 2016. "Output spillovers from changes in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 48-63.
    12. Cristopher Spencer & Paul Temple, 2013. "Standards, Learning and Growth in Britain 1901-2009," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0613, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    13. Sule Akkoyunlu & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Does the Law of One Price Hold in a High-Inflation Environment?," KOF Working papers 10-248, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    14. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2010. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," Working Paper Series 10810, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    15. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Roman Matousek & Chris Stewart, 2010. "EU Banks Rating Assignments: Is there Heterogeneity between New and Old Member Countries?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1009, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2004. "Interest Rates and Output in the Long Run," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 92, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    17. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Matousek, Roman & Stewart, Chris, 2012. "Ratings assignments: Lessons from international banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1593-1606.
    18. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    19. Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2005. "Non-linear inflationary dynamics: evidence from the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 51-69, January.
    20. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    21. Ornela SHALARI & Fejzi KOLANECI, 2014. "Statistical analysis of the inflation in the case of Albania," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(33), pages 67-77, November.
    22. Martin, Christopher & Costas Milas, 2002. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 137, Royal Economic Society.
    23. Bowdler, Christopher & Jansen, Eilev S., 2004. "A markup model of inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 306, European Central Bank.
    24. Johannes W. Fedderke & Yang Liu, 2016. "Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models," Working Papers 592, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    25. Luca Fanelli, 2006. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve through Vector Autoregressive models : Results from the Euro area," Quaderni di Dipartimento 0, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
    26. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    27. Sule Akkoyunlu & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2014. "Does the law of one price hold in a high-inflation environment? A tale of two cities in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(26), pages 3236-3245, September.
    28. Neil R. Ericsson, 2004. "The ET interview: professor David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 811, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    30. Garcés Díaz, Daniel Guillermo, 2008. "Efectos de los cambios de la política monetaria en las dinámicas del tipo de cambio, el dinero y los precios en México (1945-2000)," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(299), pages 683-713, julio-sep.
    31. Juan de Dios TENA & Antoni ESPASA & Gabriel PINO, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation and Relative Prices in the European Regions: A Case Study," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100040, EcoMod.
    32. David F. Hendry, 2020. "First in, First out: Econometric Modelling of UK Annual CO_2 Emissions, 1860–2017," Economics Papers 2020-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    33. Christopher Bowdler & Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Testing for a time-varying price-cost markup in the Euro area inflation process," Economics Papers 2004-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    34. Chengsi Zhang, 2010. "Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(3), pages 40-55, May.
    35. Sahin, Sule Onsel & Ulengin, Fusun & Ulengin, Burc, 2006. "A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 1268-1284, December.
    36. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    37. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    38. Massmann, Michael, 2007. "Cobra: A package for co-breaking analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 663-679, October.
    39. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    40. Blazejowski, Marcin & Kufel, Paweł & Kwiatkowski, Jacek, 2018. "Model simplification and variable selection: A Replication of the UK inflation model by Hendry (2001)," MPRA Paper 88745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2019. "Understanding Indonesia’S City-Level Consumer Price Formation: Implications For Price Stability," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 405-422, December.
    42. Mohammad Naim Azimi, 2016. "Drawing on Phillips curve: does the inverse relation between inflation and unemployment persist in transitional economies," International Journal of Economics and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(2), pages 89-100.
    43. Carlisle E. Moody & Thomas B. Marvell, 2010. "On the Choice of Control Variables in the Crime Equation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(5), pages 696-715, October.
    44. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    45. Tim Bulman & John Simon, 2003. "Productivity and Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    46. Chen, Hsien-Yi & Chen, Sheng-Syan, 2018. "Quality of government institutions and spreads on sovereign credit default swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 82-95.
    47. Christopher Martin & Michael Arghyrou & Costas Milas, 2004. "Nonlinear inflation dynamics: evidence from the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 59, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    48. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  69. Andreas Beyer & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Reconstructing Aggregate Euro‐zone Data," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 613-624, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Libero Monteforte, 2004. "Aggregation bias in macro models: does it matter foir the euro area?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 534, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2010. "Investigating M3 money demand in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 111-122, February.
    3. Bosker, E.M., 2006. "On the aggregation of eurozone data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 260-265, February.
    4. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper 2004/10, Norges Bank.
    5. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2002. "La politique monétaire face à l'incertitude : un survol méthodologique des contributions relatives à la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 177-200.
    6. Andrén, Niclas & Oxelheim, Lars, 2002. "Exchange-Rate and Interest-Rate Driven Competitive Advantages in the EMU," Working Paper Series 576, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    7. Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Seitz, Franz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank.
    8. Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2013. "Money growth and inflation: A regime switching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 118-145.
    9. Hahn, Elke, 2002. "Core inflation in the Euro area: Evidence from the structural VAR approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    10. Manh Ha Duong & Camille Logeay & Sabine Stephan & Rudolf Zwiener & Serhiy Yahnych, 2005. "Modelling European Business Cycles (EBC Model): A Macroeconometric Model of Germany ; Version March 2005," Data Documentation 5, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. De Grauwe, Paul & Senegas, Marc-Alexandre, 2006. "Monetary policy design and transmission asymmetry in EMU: Does uncertainty matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 787-808, December.
    12. Ulrich Fritsche & Camille Logeay & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Rudolf Zwiener unter Mitarb. von Cansel Kiziltepe & Christian Proano-Acosta, 2005. "Auswirkungen von länderspezifischen Differenzen in der Lohn-, Preisniveau- und Produktivitätsentwicklung auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung in den Ländern des Euroraums: Endbericht ; Forschungsprojekt im ," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 8, number pbk8, January.
    13. Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 681-702, August.
    14. Mike Artis & Andreas Beyer, 2004. "Issues in Money Demand: The Case of Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 717-736, November.
    15. Sabine Stephan, 2002. "German Exports to the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 286, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Rabeya Khatoon & Md Emran Hasan & Md Wahid Ferdous Ibon & Shahidul Islam & Jeenat Mehareen & Rubaiya Murshed & Md Nahid Ferdous Pabon & Md. Jillur Rahman & Musharrat Shabnam Shuchi, 2022. "Aggregation, asymmetry, and common factors for Bangladesh’s exchange rate–trade balance relation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2739-2770, June.
    17. Beyer, Andreas & Juselius, Katarina, 2010. "Does it matter how aggregates are measured? The case of monetary transmission mechanisms in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1149, European Central Bank.
    18. Mariano Matilla-Garcia, 2005. "A SVAR model for estimating core inflation in the Euro zone," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 149-154.
    19. Gianni Amisano & Roberta Colavecchio, 2013. "Money Growth and Inflation: evidence from a Markov Switching Bayesian VAR," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201304, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    20. Massimiliano Caporin & Domenico Sartore, 2006. "Methodological aspects of time series back-calculation," Working Papers 2006_56, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    21. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Roelands, Sebastian, 2010. "The demand for euros," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 674-684, June.
    22. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

  70. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 2000. "Reformulating Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 138-159, Winter.

    Cited by:

    1. Katarina Juselius, 2022. "A Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario for a Monetary Model with Forward-Looking Expectations," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 185-213.
    4. Goyal, Ashima, 2002. "Coordinating monetary and fiscal policies: a role for rules?," MPRA Paper 29200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ericsson Neil R., 2008. "Comment on "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World" (by Michael Clements and David Hendry)," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, October.
    6. Katarina Juselius, 2017. "A CVAR scenario for a standard monetary model using theory-consistent expectations," Discussion Papers 17-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    7. Leiva, Benjamin & Liu, Zhongyuan, 2019. "Energy and economic growth in the USA two decades later: Replication and reanalysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 89-99.
    8. Christopher Allsopp, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy Rules in Theory and in Practice," Discussion Papers 10, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    9. Benjamin Leiva & Mar Rubio-Varas, 2020. "The Energy and Gross Domestic Product Causality Nexus in Latin America 1900-2010," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 423-435.
    10. Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2017. "Energy-growth long-term relationship under structural breaks. Evidence from Canada, 17 Latin American economies and the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 121-134.
    11. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation," Working Papers 2003-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.

  71. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-42.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  72. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    2. Kelly Burns & Imad Moosa, 2017. "Demystifying the Meese–Rogoff puzzle: structural breaks or measures of forecasting accuracy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(48), pages 4897-4910, October.
    3. Inoue,Tomoo & Kaya,Demet & Ohshige,Hitoshi, 2015. "The impact of China?s slowdown on the Asia Pacific region : an application of the GVAR model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7442, The World Bank.
    4. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    5. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2000. "The Properties of Cointegration Tests in Models with Structural Change," NIPE Working Papers 1/2000, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    6. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2013. "Multivariate Methods For Monitoring Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 250-274, March.
    7. David Hendry & Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2012. "Adaptive Forcasting in the Presence of Recent and Ongoing Structural Change," CAMA Working Papers 2012-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. David F. Hendry, 2002. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation and the Lucas Critique," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 21-40.
    10. Y. Dendramis & G. Kapetanios & M. Marcellino, 2020. "A similarity‐based approach for macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 801-827, June.
    11. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    12. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
    13. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett, 2008. "Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 408, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
    15. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
    16. Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "A Recursive Monte Carlo Study of Structural-Break Sensitivity of Adjustment Coefficients in Cointegrated VAR Systems," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 251-270, June.
    17. David Hendry & Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Model Identification and Non-unique Structure," Economics Papers 2002-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    18. Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Between Institutions and Global Forces: Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-54, January.
    19. Ericsson Neil R., 2008. "Comment on "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World" (by Michael Clements and David Hendry)," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, October.
    20. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    21. Akram,Q.F. & Nymoen,R., 2001. "Employment behaviour in slack and tight labour markets," Memorandum 27/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    22. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2011. "Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change," CAMA Working Papers 2011-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    23. Dellas, Harris & Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2018. "The macroeconomic and fiscal implications of inflation forecast errors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 203-217.
    24. Fernando N. de Oliveira, 2015. "Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil using Probabilistic Models," Working Papers Series 402, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    25. Guglielmo Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2010. "Time-varying spot and futures oil price dynamics," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 75/2010, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    26. Wilson Luiz Rotatori & Jan M Podivinsky, 2007. "Dynamic Macroeconometric Modelling: Evidence on the Brazilian Monetary System," EcoMod2007 23900078, EcoMod.
    27. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2013. "Robust Forecast Methods and Monitoring during Structural Change," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 3-27, October.
    28. Gantungalag Altansukh & Denise R. Osborn, 2022. "Using structural break inference for forecasting time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 1-41, July.
    29. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    30. Hinich, Melvin J. & Foster, John & Wild, Phillip, 2006. "Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 136-150, March.
    31. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society.
    32. Grech, Aaron George, 2015. "The evolution of the Maltese economy since independence," MPRA Paper 68392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Takamitsu Kurita & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023. "Johansen Test with Fourier-Type Smooth Nonlinear Trends in Cointegrating Relations," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1216, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    34. Alessandro Girardi & Claudio Impenna, 2013. "Price discovery in the Italian sovereign bonds market: the role of order flow," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 906, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    35. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
    36. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    37. Aaron G. Grech (ed.), 2015. "The evolution of the Maltese Economy since Independence," CBM Ebooks, Central Bank of Malta, edition 1, number 02.
    38. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    39. Akram, Q. Farooq & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2006. "Econometric modelling of slack and tight labour markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 579-596, July.
    40. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    41. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    42. Barassi, Marco R. & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen G., 2005. "Interest rate linkages: a Kalman filter approach to detecting structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-284, March.
    43. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  73. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 1999. "On winning forecasting competitions in economics," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 123-160.

    Cited by:

    1. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    2. David F. Hendry, 2002. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation and the Lucas Critique," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 21-40.
    3. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
    4. Chien-Chung Nieh & Hwey-Yun Yau & Ken Hung & Hong-Kou Ou & Shine Hung, 2013. "Cointegration and causal relationships among steel prices of Mainland China, Taiwan, and USA in the presence of multiple structural changes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 545-561, April.
    5. Theologos Pantelidis & Nikitas Pittis, 2009. "Estimation and forecasting in first-order vector autoregressions with near to unit roots and conditional heteroscedasticity," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 612-630.
    6. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," NBER Working Papers 6928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Corradi, V. & Swanson, N.R., 2000. "A Consistent Test for Nonlinear Out of Sample Predictive Accuracy," Discussion Papers 0012, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    8. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "The Effect of Data Transformation on Common Cycle, Cointegration and Unit Root Tests: Monte Carlo Results and a Simple Test," Departmental Working Papers 200322, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    9. Simon C. Smith, 2020. "Equity premium prediction and structural breaks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 412-429, July.
    10. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
    11. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society.
    12. T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen & Kuan-Min Wang, 2010. "Causality between housing returns, inflation and economic growth with endogenous breaks," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 95-115.
    13. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Some recent developments in predictive accuracy testing with nested models and (generic) nonlinear alternatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 185-199.
    14. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July.
    15. Hyein Shim & Hyeyoen Kim & Sunghyun Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2016. "Testing the relative purchasing power parity hypothesis: the case of Korea," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(25), pages 2383-2395, May.
    16. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee, 2000. "A Multi-Country Structural VAR Model," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    17. Frugier, Alain, 2016. "Returns, volatility and investor sentiment: Evidence from European stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 45-55.

  74. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.

    Cited by:

    1. Todd E. Clark, 2004. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 115-139.
    2. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
    3. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," UC3M Working papers. Economics we081810, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    4. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2015. "The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
    5. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 185-213.
    6. Ronelle Burger, & Stan du Plessis, 2006. "Examining the Robustness of Competing Explanations of Slow Growth in African Countries," Discussion Papers 06/02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    7. Sara Muhammadullah & Amena Urooj & Faridoon Khan, 2021. "A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(2), pages 80-92, September.
    8. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1397, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Ramiro J. Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Office Market Dynamics in Madrid: Modelling with a Single-Equation Error Correction Mechanism," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(4), pages 451-491.
    10. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2010. "Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia," Working Paper Series 10810, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    11. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0411, Econometric Society.
    12. Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "Comparing Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Macroeconomics 0504032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Teodosio Perez-Amaral & Giampiero M. Gallo & Halbert White, 2003. "Flexible Tool for Model Building: the Relevant Transformation of the Inputs Network Approach (RETINA)," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0309, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    14. Pillai N., Vijayamohanan, 2008. "In Quest of Truth: The War of Methods in Economics," MPRA Paper 8866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. José-Joaquín del-Pozo-Antúnez & Horacio Molina-Sánchez & Francisco Fernández-Navarro & Antonio Ariza-Montes, 2021. "Accountancy as a Meaningful Work. Main Determinants from a Job Quality and Optimization Algorithm Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-14, August.
    16. Bernd Hayo, 2007. "Is European Monetary Policy Appropriate for the EMU Member Countries? A Counterfactual Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Cobham (ed.), The Travails of the Eurozone, chapter 4, pages 67-94, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Bernd Hayo & Stefan Voigt, 2008. "The Relevance of Judicial Procedure for Economic Growth," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200828, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    18. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Automated Discovery In Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 3-20, February.
    19. Kevin D. Hoover & Mark V. Siegler, 2005. "Sound and Fury: McCloskey and Significance Testing in Economics," Econometrics 0511018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. P. Dorian Owen & R. Quentin Grafton & Tom Kompas, 2004. "Productivity, Factor Accumulation and Social Networks: Theory and Evidence," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 224, Econometric Society.
    21. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2005. "Leading Indicators for Euro‐area Inflation and GDP Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 785-813, December.
    22. Kornstad, Tom & Nymoen, Ragnar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2013. "Macroeconomic shocks and the probability of being employed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 572-587.
    23. Barkbu,B.B. & Nymoen,R. & Roed,K., 2001. "Wage coordination and unemployment dynamics in Norway and Sweden," Memorandum 11/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    24. R. Grafton & Tom Kompas & P. Owen, 2007. "Bridging the barriers: knowledge connections, productivity and capital accumulation," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 219-231, December.
    25. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & B. Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    26. Waqar Badshah & Mehmet Bulut, 2020. "Model Selection Procedures in Bounds Test of Cointegration: Theoretical Comparison and Empirical Evidence," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-23, June.
    27. Marie Bessec, 2010. "Etalonnages du taux de croissance du PIB français sur la base des enquêtes de conjoncture," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 77-99.
    28. Bernd Hayo & Stefan Voigt, 2003. "Explaining de facto judicial independence," ICER Working Papers 01-2004, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    29. P. Dorian Owen, 2003. "General‐to‐Specific Modelling Using PcGets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 609-628, September.
    30. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 895-914, December.
    31. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-151.
    32. Steven Cook, 2001. "Observations on the practice of data-mining: comments on the JEM symposium," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 415-419.
    33. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "Vision and Influence in Econometrics: John Denis Sargan," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1393, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    34. Dahlqvist, Carl-Henrik & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Effective network inference through multivariate information transfer estimation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 499(C), pages 376-394.
    35. Sucarrat, Genaro & Escribano, Álvaro, 2009. "Automated financial multi-path GETS modelling," UC3M Working papers. Economics we093620, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    36. Bårdsen, Gunnar & den Reijer, Ard & Jonasson, Patrik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2012. "MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2566-2582.
    37. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "General--to--Specific Reductions of Vector Autoregressive Processes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 164, Society for Computational Economics.
    38. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Q. Lafféter & M. Pak, 2015. "Tax elasticity to business cycle: an overview of three taxes from 1979 to 2013 in France," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2015-08, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    40. Dubois, 2005. "Grocer 1.0, an Econometric Toolbox for Scilab: an Econometrician Point of View," Econometrics 0501014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Hayo, Bernd & Vollan, Björn, 2012. "Group interaction, heterogeneity, rules, and co-operative behaviour: Evidence from a common-pool resource experiment in South Africa and Namibia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 9-28.
    42. Cui, Jin & In, Francis & Maharaj, Elizabeth Ann, 2016. "What drives the Libor–OIS spread? Evidence from five major currency Libor–OIS spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 358-375.
    43. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Alvaro Escribano & Genaro Sucarrat, 2011. "Automated model selection in finance: General-to-speci c modelling of the mean and volatility speci cations," Working Papers 2011-09, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
    45. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  75. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1999. "Encompassing and rational expectations: How sequential corroboration can imply refutation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-21.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  76. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 13221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0602, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. David Hendry & Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Kunst, Robert M. & Jumah, Adusei, 2004. "Toward a Theory of Evaluating Predictive Accuracy," Economics Series 162, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    7. Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas, 2004. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," Arbetsrapport 2004:7, Institute for Futures Studies.
    8. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi‐Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, September.
    9. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
    10. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    11. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 411-425.
    12. Luca Nocciola, "undated". "Finite sample forecast properties and window length under breaks in cointegrated systems," Discussion Papers 19/07, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    13. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2019-02, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    14. Book Review, 2000. "Book review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 132-133.
    15. George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Forecasting Us Inflation Using Dynamic General-To-Specific Model Selection," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 151-167, April.
    16. Costas Anyfantakis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 2008. "Parameter instability and forecasting performance: a Monte Carlo study," International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20.
    17. Lorena Skufi & Adam Gersl, 2022. "Using Macro-Financial Models to Simulate Macroeconomic Developments During the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Case of Albania," Working Papers IES 2022/24, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2022.
    18. Wani, M.H. & Paul, Ranjit Kumar & Bazaz, Naseer H. & Manzoor, M., 2015. "Market integration and Price Forecasting of Apple in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 1-13.
    19. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Clements, M.P. & Smith, J., 1997. "Forecasting Seasonal UK Consumption Components," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 487, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    21. Ming-Chih Lee & Chien-Liang Chiu & Wan-Hsiu Cheng, 2007. "Enhancing Forecast Accuracy By Using Long Estimation Periods," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 1(2), pages 1-9.
    22. Alessandro Casini, 2018. "Tests for Forecast Instability and Forecast Failure under a Continuous Record Asymptotic Framework," Papers 1803.10883, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
    23. Li, Gang & Li, Yong, 2015. "Forecasting copper futures volatility under model uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 167-176.
    24. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus, 2000. "Forecasting European GDP Using Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models. A Warning," Economics Series 79, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    25. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhu, Suling & Zhang, Wenyu & Lu, Haiyan, 2010. "Combined modeling for electric load forecasting with adaptive particle swarm optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1671-1678.
    26. Raphael Markellos & Terence Mills, 2003. "Asset pricing dynamics," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 533-556.
    27. Ricardo Mestre & Peter McAdam, 2011. "Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 303-324, April.
    28. Fokin, Nikita, 2021. "The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 5-29.
    29. Junttila, Juha, 2001. "Structural breaks, ARIMA model and Finnish inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 203-230.
    30. Georgios Kouretas & Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting of the Cyprus Stock Exchange Daily Returns," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 46, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    31. Batchelor, Roy & Alizadeh, Amir & Visvikis, Ilias, 2007. "Forecasting spot and forward prices in the international freight market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 101-114.
    32. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2016. "Forecasting in Economics and Finance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6z55v472, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    33. Zaher, Fadi, 2007. "Evaluating factor forecasts for the UK: The role of asset prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 679-693.
    34. Marc Brisson & Bryan Campbell & John W. Galbraith, 2001. "Forecasting Some Low-Predictability Time Series Using Diffusion Indices," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-46, CIRANO.
    35. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    36. Allan Timmermann & Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 234, Econometric Society.
    37. Kraay, Aart & Monokroussos, George, 1999. "Growth forecasts using time series and growth models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2224, The World Bank.
    38. Victor Bystrov, 2006. "Forecasting Emerging Market Indicators: Brazil and Russia," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/12, European University Institute.
    39. Maghyereh, Aktham, 2003. "Financial Liberalization and Stability Demand for Money in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Jordan," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    40. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    41. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2000. "The Forecast Performance of Long Memory and Markov Switching Models," NIPE Working Papers 2/2000, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    42. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting," Working Papers 0502, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    43. Li, Yong & Huang, Wei-Ping & Zhang, Jie, 2013. "Forecasting volatility in the Chinese stock market under model uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 231-234.

  77. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Justin Doran & Bernard Fingleton, 2014. "Economic shocks and growth: Spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93, pages 137-165, November.
    2. David Hendry & Lea Schneider & Jason E. Smerdon, 2016. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 780, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Martin Hoesli & Elias Oikarinen, 2012. "Are REITs real estate? Evidence from international sector level data," ERES eres2012_232, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. Elias Oikarinen & Martin Hoesli & Camilo Serrano, 2013. "Do Public Real Estate Returns Really Lead Private Returns?," ERES eres2013_145, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Matei Demetrescu & Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2009. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process with uncertain deterministic trend term," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 414-435, November.
    6. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Testing quantity theory of money for the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 21704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mizon, Grayham E., 2000. "Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland and the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 387-413, August.
    8. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    9. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Long-run and Short-run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in Zambia," Working Papers in Economics 40, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Alessandra Dal Colle, 2011. "Finance–growth nexus: does causality withstand financial liberalization? Evidence from cointegrated VAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 127-154, August.
    11. Hjelm, Goran & Johansson, Martin W., 2005. "A Monte Carlo study on the pitfalls in determining deterministic components in cointegrating models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 691-703, December.
    12. ISMIHAN Mustafa & METIN-OZCAN Kivilcim & TANSEL Aysit, 2010. "Macroeconomic Instability, Capital Accumulation and Growth: The Case of Turkey 1963-1999," EcoMod2003 330700071, EcoMod.
    13. Banerjee, A. & Russell, B., 2000. "Industry Structure and the Dynamics of Price Adjustment," Economics Working Papers eco2000/22, European University Institute.
    14. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2011. "An empirical model for Japan's business fixed investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 107-120, March.
    15. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    16. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. Linzert Tobias, 2004. "Sources of German Unemployment: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model / Die Hintergründe deutscher Arbeitslosigkeit: Evidenz von einem Strukturellen VAR," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(3), pages 317-336, June.
    18. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "Before the Fall, Was the Turkish Lira Overvalued?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 69-99, March.
    19. Kindie Getnet, 2009. "Optimising the policy cost of market stabilisation: Which commodity matters most in Ethiopia?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 362-378.
    20. Takamitsu Kurita, 2010. "Time Series Analysis of Transatlantic Market Interactions: Evidence from Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 9(2), pages 157-173, August.
    21. Niels Møller & Paul Sharp, 2014. "Malthus in cointegration space: evidence of a post-Malthusian pre-industrial England," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 105-140, March.
    22. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2016. "The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms," Discussion Papers 16-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    23. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Distribution Approximations for Cointegration Tests with Stationary Exogenous Regressors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-013/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    24. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2006. "Dynamic modelling of trade union behaviour: Evidence from the Greek manufacturing sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 316-338, March.
    25. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Exchange rate determination of TL/US$: a co-integration approach," MPRA Paper 19659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Irfan Civcir, 2004. "The Long-Run Validity of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for a High Inflation Country and Misalignment : The Case of Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 84-100, July.
    27. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "Are gold and silver a hedge against inflation? A two century perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 267-276.
    28. Johann Burgstaller, 2002. "Are stock returns a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments?," Economics working papers 2002-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
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    36. Aurelijus Dabušinskas, 2005. "Money and Prices in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-07, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Nov 2005.
    37. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Nejib Hachicha, 2003. "Capital Inflows-National Saving Dynamics in Tunisia: Evidence from Cointegration, Weak Exogeneity and Simultaneous Error Correction Modelling," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 43-60.
    39. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401.
    40. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    41. Guillermo Carlomagno & Antoni Espasa, 2021. "Discovering Specific Common Trends in a Large Set of Disaggregates: Statistical Procedures, their Properties and an Empirical Application," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 641-662, June.
    42. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2015. "Forecasting a large set of disaggregates with common trends and outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    43. Berhanu, Denu, 2006. "Dynamic Money Demand Function for Ethiopia," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-81, November.
    44. Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "A Recursive Monte Carlo Study of Structural-Break Sensitivity of Adjustment Coefficients in Cointegrated VAR Systems," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 251-270, June.
    45. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    46. Jane Binner & Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Thomas Elger & Alicia Gazely & Andrew Mullineux, 2005. "A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks: an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 665-680.
    47. Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas, 2002. "The UK Personal Sector Demand for Risky Money," Working Papers 2002:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    48. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2011. "An empirical model for Japan’s business fixed investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 107-120.
    49. Akram,Q.F. & Nymoen,R., 2001. "Employment behaviour in slack and tight labour markets," Memorandum 27/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    50. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2020. "Likelihood-based tests for parameter constancy in I(2) CVAR models with an application to fixed-term deposit data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    51. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2015. "Does the euro area macroeconomy affect global commodity prices? Evidence from a SVAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 485-503.
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    53. Brüggemann, Ralf, 2002. "On the small sample properties of weak exogeneity tests in cointegrated VAR models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,2, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    54. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    55. Philip Hans Franses, 2001. "How to deal with intercept and trend in practical cointegration analysis?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 577-579.
    56. Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2016. "Interest parity, cointegration, and the term structure: Testing in an integrated framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 281-294.
    57. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2015. "Money Demand Estimations in Mexico and of its Stability 1986-2010, as well as Some Examples of its Uses," Working Papers 2015-13, Banco de México.
    58. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    59. Hubrich, Kirstin & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 1998. "A review of systemscointegration tests," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,101, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    60. Majocchi Antonio & Pavione Enrica, 2002. "International franchising in Italy: trends and perspectives," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0215, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    61. Hans Christian Kongsted & Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Analysing I(2) Systems by Transformed Vector Autoregressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 379-397, July.
    62. Ang, James B., 2008. "What are the mechanisms linking financial development and economic growth in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 38-53, January.
    63. Takamitsu Kurita & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023. "Johansen Test with Fourier-Type Smooth Nonlinear Trends in Cointegrating Relations," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1216, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    64. Bent Nielsen, 2003. "Power of tests for unit roots in the presence of a linear trend," Economics Papers 2003-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    65. Trenkler, Carsten, 2002. "The effects of ignoring level shifts on systems cointegration tests," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,68, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    66. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July.
    67. Takamitsu Kurita & Patrick James, 2022. "The Canadian–US dollar exchange rate over the four decades of the post‐Bretton Woods float: An econometric study allowing for structural breaks," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 856-883, July.
    68. Almaas, Synne S. & Kurita, Takamitsu, 2019. "Modelling the real yen–dollar rate and inflation dynamics based on international parity conditions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 51-64.
    69. Maxym Chaban, 2010. "Cointegration analysis with structural breaks and deterministic trends: an application to the Canadian dollar," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 3023-3037.
    70. Takamitsu Kurita & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "Partial Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models with Structural Breaks in Deterministic Terms," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-35, October.
    71. Hans Christian Kongsted, 2002. "Testing the Nominal-to-Real Transformation," Discussion Papers 02-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    72. Choi, Daniel & Oxley, Les, 2004. "Modelling the demand for money in New Zealand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 185-191.
    73. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2005. "Long-run dynamics of official and black-market exchange rates in Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 219-237, February.
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    76. Hjelm, Göran & Johansson, Martin W, 2002. "A Monte Carlo Study on the Pitfalls in Determining Deterministic Components in Cointegrating Models," Working Papers 2002:3, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    77. Takamitsu Kurita & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Partial cointegrated vector autoregressive models with structural breaks in deterministic terms," Economics Papers 2018-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

  78. Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1998. "Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 267-294.

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    1. Christian Müller-Kademann, 2009. "Biased Estimation in a Simple Extension of a Standard Error Correction Model," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(I), pages 37-60, March.
    2. Matthew T. Holt & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2012-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Helmut Lütkepohl & Ralf Brüggemann, 2006. "A small monetary system for the euro area based on German data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 683-702.
    4. Amir Kia, 2005. "Developing a Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index and Testing Its Impact on Risk and Volatility in the United States," Carleton Economic Papers 05-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    5. Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Dridi, Jemma & Unsal, Filiz D. & Williams, Oral H., 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 71-84.
    6. Dees, Stéphane, 2016. "Credit, asset prices and business cycles at the global level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 139-152.
    7. Marie Podevin, 2001. "Interaction entre taux d'intérêt allemands et français : un réexamen de l'hypothèse de dominance allemande," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 49-70.
    8. Mouchart, M. & Orsi, R., 2015. "Building a structural model: parameterization and structurality," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2015056, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    9. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons & Ralph W. Tryon, 2001. "Output and inflation in the long run," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 241-253.
    10. Vincenzo Cassino & Richard Thornton, 2002. "Do changes in structural factors explain movements in the equilibrium rate of unemployment?," Bank of England working papers 153, Bank of England.
    11. Błażejowski, Marcin & Kufel, Paweł & Kufel, Tadeusz & Kwiatkowski, Jacek & Osińska, Magdalena, 2018. "Model selection for modeling the demand for narrow money in transitional economies," MPRA Paper 90458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Joao Miguel Sousa & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Global Monetary Policy Shocks in the G5: a SVAR Approach," CEIS Research Paper 89, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    13. Zou, Gao Lu, 2012. "The long-term relationships among China's energy consumption sources and adjustments to its renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 456-467.
    14. Mahamitra Das & Nityananda Sarkar, 2020. "Revisiting the Anomalous Relationship between Inflation and Real Estate Investment Trust Returns in Presence of Structural Breaks: Empirical Evidence from the USA and the UK," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 250-258.
    15. Stéphane Lemarié & Valérie Orozco & Jean-Pierre Butault & Antonio Musolesi & Michel Simioni & Bertrand Schmitt, 2019. "Assessing the long-term impact of agricultural research on productivity: evidence from France," Working Papers hal-02791517, HAL.
    16. Kia, Amir, 2006. "Deficits, debt financing, monetary policy and inflation in developing countries: Internal or external factors?: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 879-903, November.
    17. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 2001. "The transmission of German monetary policy in the pre-Euro period," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,87, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    18. Tatsushi Oka & Pierre Perron, 2016. "Testing for Common Breaks in a Multiple Equations System," Papers 1606.00092, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    19. Reza Anglingkusumo, 2005. "Stability of the Demand for Real Narrow Money in lndonesia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-051/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Magdalena Osinska & Marcin Blazejowski & Pawel Kufel & Tadeusz Kufel & Jacek Kwiatkowski, 2020. "Narrow Money Demand in Indonesia and in Other Transitional Economies – Model Selection and Forecasting," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1291-1311.
    21. Holinski, N. & Vermeulen, R., 2009. "The international wealth effect : a global error-correcting analysis," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    22. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Staff Working Papers 12-32, Bank of Canada.
    23. Holt, Matthew T. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2020. "Global hemispheric temperatures and co-shifting: A vector shifting-mean autoregressive analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 198-215.
    24. Timo Bettendorf, 2012. "Investigating Global Imbalances: Empirical Evidence from a GVAR Approach," Studies in Economics 1217, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    25. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    26. Amir Kia, 2006. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Carleton Economic Papers 06-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
    27. Martin B. Schmidt, 2004. "Exogeneity within the M2 Demand Function: Evidence from a Large Macroeconomic System," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 634-646, October.
    28. Considine, Jennifer & Hatipoglu, Emre & Aldayel, Abdullah, 2022. "The sensitivity of oil price shocks to preexisting market conditions: A GVAR analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    29. Stéphane Dées & Alessandro Galesi, 2019. "The Global Financial Cycle and US Monetary Policy in an Interconnected World," Working papers 744, Banque de France.
    30. Engle, Robert F. & Marcucci, Juri, 2006. "A long-run Pure Variance Common Features model for the common volatilities of the Dow Jones," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 7-42, May.
    31. Nina Budina & Wojciech Maliszewski & Georges de Menil & Geomina Turlea, 2006. "Money, inflation and output in Romania, 1992-2000," Post-Print halshs-00754167, HAL.
    32. Gaolu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2020. "Effects of International Crude Oil Prices on Energy Consumption in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, July.
    33. Das, Mahamitra & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2019. "Revisiting the Anomalous Relationship between Inflation and REIT Returns in Presence of Structural Breaks: Empirical Evidence from the USA and the UK," MPRA Paper 95130, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Nov 2019.
    34. Kia , Amir, 2009. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 5(1), pages 65-113, December.
    35. R. Velazquez & Noriega & A., 2004. "International evidence on monetary neutrality under broken trend stationary models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 282, Society for Computational Economics.
    36. Massmann, Michael, 2007. "Cobra: A package for co-breaking analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 663-679, October.
    37. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João, 2003. "Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies? A literature review," Working Paper Series 261, European Central Bank.
    38. Reza Anglingkusumo, 2005. "Money - Inflation Nexus in Indonesia: Evidence from a P-Star Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-054/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    39. Amir Kia, 2004. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors?," Carleton Economic Papers 04-15, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    40. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressions," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,4, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    41. Blake LeBaron, 2013. "Heterogeneous Agents and Long Horizon Features of Asset Prices," Working Papers 63, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    42. Vaona, Andrea, 2016. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Kiel Working Papers 2038, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    43. Rajaguru, Gulasekaran & Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2008. "Temporal aggregation, cointegration and causality inference," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 223-226, December.
    44. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
    45. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "Cross-country effects of regulatory capital arbitrage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5329-5345.
    46. Noriega, Antonio E. & Soria, Luis M. & Velázquez, Ramón, 2008. "International evidence on stochastic and deterministic monetary neutrality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1261-1275, November.
    47. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    48. Peter Spencer & Zhuoshi Liu, "undated". "An Open-Economy Macro-Finance Model of Internatinal Interdependence: The OECD, US and the UK," Discussion Papers 09/16, Department of Economics, University of York.
    49. Hall, Stephen & Mizon, Grayham E. & Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 339-357, August.
    50. Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000. "The Relationship between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Economies and Australia," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 119, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    51. Tilak Abeysinghe & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Temporal aggregation, causality distortions and a sign rule," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 73, Econometric Society.
    52. David F. Hendry & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Monfardini, 2008. "Foreword," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 711-714, December.
    53. Ms. Carolina Osorio-Buitron & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics in Asia: Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China," IMF Working Papers 2011/257, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Håvard Hungnes, 2005. "Identifying Structural Breaks in Cointegrated VAR Models," Discussion Papers 422, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

  79. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestwich, 1998. "The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878–1993," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 289-324, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  80. David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestwich & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Friedman and Schwartz (1982) revisited: Assessing annual and phase-average models of money demand in the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 401-415.

    Cited by:

    1. Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 2001. "Modelling the long-run demand for money in the United Kingdom: a random coefficient analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 475-501, August.

  81. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  82. Desai, Meghnad J & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1997. "John Denis Sargan," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1121-1125, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "A retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and his contributions to econometrics," International Finance Discussion Papers 700, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  83. David F. Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1997. "The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 437-461, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    2. Juan Nicolás Hernández, 2006. "Revisión De Los Determinantes Macroeconómicos Del Consumo Total De Los Hogares Para El Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 401, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Steve Cook, 2012. "An historical perspective on the forecasting performance of the Treasury Model: forecasting the growth in UK consumers’ expenditure," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 555-563, February.
    4. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
    5. Ari, Ali & Dagtekin, Rustem, 2007. "Early Warning Signals of the 2000/2001 Turkish Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 25857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Husebo, Tore Anders & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1999. "Equilibrium-correction vs. differencing in macroeconometric forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 515-544, December.
    7. Eitrheim,O. & Jansen,E.S. & Nymoen,R., 2000. "Progress from forecast failure : the Norwegian consumption function," Memorandum 32/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    8. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2000. "Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 1302, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 29 Jan 2002.
    9. Hendry, David F., 1997. "On congruent econometric relations : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 163-190, December.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "A Recursive Monte Carlo Study of Structural-Break Sensitivity of Adjustment Coefficients in Cointegrated VAR Systems," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 251-270, June.
    12. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    13. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Bank loan components, uncertainty and monetary transmission mechanism," BCAM Working Papers 1702, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    14. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society.
    15. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July.
    16. Hall, Stephen & Mizon, Grayham E. & Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 339-357, August.
    17. Anders Rygh Swensen & Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2019. "The consumption Euler equation or the Keynesian consumption function?," Discussion Papers 904, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    18. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    20. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.

  84. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997. "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Guorui Bian & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Robust Estimation and Forecasting of the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-036/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. A. Asrat Atsedeweyn & K. Srinivasa Rao, 2014. "Linear regression model with new symmetric distributed errors," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 364-381, February.
    4. Bharat Barot & Zan Yang, 2004. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK. Econometric analysis for the period 1970-1998," Macroeconomics 0409022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Anna Serena Vergori, 2012. "Forecasting Tourism Demand: The Role of Seasonality," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 915-930, October.
    6. Bharat Barot, 2004. "Growth and Business Cycles for the Swedish Economy 1963-1999," Macroeconomics 0409017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
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    1. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," UC3M Working papers. Economics we081810, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    2. Kapetanios, George, 2007. "Variable selection in regression models using nonstandard optimisation of information criteria," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 4-15, September.
    3. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2007. "Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium," ESSEC Working Papers DR 07020, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    4. Lars E.O. Svensson & Kjetil Houg & Haakon O.Aa. Solheim & Erling Steigum, 2002. "An Independent Review of Monetary Policy and Institutions in Norway," Working Papers 120, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    5. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Papailias, Fotis, 2016. "Forecasting inflation and GDP growth using heuristic optimisation of information criteria and variable reduction methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 369-382.
    6. Abberger, Klaus & Graff, Michael & Siliverstovs, Boriss & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2018. "Using rule-based updating procedures to improve the performance of composite indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 127-144.
    7. Michael Graff & Dominik Studer, 2018. "Konstruktion von Sammelindikatoren für den Konjunkturverlauf bei prekärer Datenlage am Beispiel Montenegros," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 12(3), pages 81-91, October.

  86. Hendry, David F, 1997. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1330-1357, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    2. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    3. Sinha, Pankaj & Singhal, Anushree & Sondhi, Kriti, 2012. "Economic scenario of United States of America before and after 2012 U.S. Presidential Election," MPRA Paper 41886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    5. Fiess, Norbert, 2003. "Capital flows, country risk, and contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2943, The World Bank.
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    7. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 203-220.
    8. Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December.
    9. Reza Anglingkusumo, 2005. "Stability of the Demand for Real Narrow Money in lndonesia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-051/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Daniel J. Wilson, 2001. "Embodying embodiment in a structural, macroeconomic input-output model," Working Paper Series 2001-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007. "Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    12. John Muellbauer, 2000. "Earnings, Unemployment, and Housing: Evidence from a Panel of British Regions," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1608, Econometric Society.
    13. Veronica John Muellbauer & Veronica David M Williams, 2012. "Credit conditions and the real economy: the elephant in the room," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 95-101, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
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    16. Q. Farooq Akram, 2010. "Policy analysis in real time using IMF's monetary model," Working Paper 2010/10, Norges Bank.
    17. Reza Anglingkusumo, 2005. "Money - Inflation Nexus in Indonesia: Evidence from a P-Star Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-054/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. John Muellbauer & Pierre St-Amant & David Williams, 2015. "Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different?," Staff Working Papers 15-40, Bank of Canada.
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    23. Constantinou Anthony Costa & Fenton Norman Elliott, 2012. "Solving the Problem of Inadequate Scoring Rules for Assessing Probabilistic Football Forecast Models," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, March.
    24. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2004. "Monitoring for Disruptions in Financial Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-26, CIRANO.
    25. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "A recession‐and‐state forecasting model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(4), pages 1025-1039, April.

  87. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 657-684, November.
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  88. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
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  89. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-François, 1996. "Encompassing and Specificity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 620-656, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Bontemps & Grayham E. Mizon, 2008. "Encompassing: Concepts and Implementation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 721-750, December.
    2. Dridi, Ramdan & Renault, Eric, 2000. "Semi-parametric indirect inference," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6864, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Jurgen A. Doornik, 2008. "Encompassing and Automatic Model Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 915-925, December.
    4. Lapenta, Elia & Lavergne, Pascal, 2022. "Encompassing Tests for Nonparametric Regressions," TSE Working Papers 22-1332, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Elia Lapenta & Pascal Lavergne, 2022. "Encompassing Tests for Nonparametric Regressions," Papers 2203.06685, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    6. Christophe Bontemps & Jean‐Pierre Florens & Jean‐François Richard, 2008. "Parametric and Non‐parametric Encompassing Procedures," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 751-780, December.

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    1. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    2. Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu & Rossi, Barbara, 2017. "Rolling window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 55-67.
    3. Jari Hännikäinen, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," Working Papers 1494, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    4. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    5. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2015. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Moosa, Imad A. & Vaz, John J., 2016. "Cointegration, error correction and exchange rate forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 21-34.
    7. Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Further Results on MSFE Encompassing," Working Papers 143, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    8. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    9. Gustavsson, Patrik & Nordström, Jonas, 1999. "The Impact of Seasonal Unit Roots and Vector ARMA Modeling on Forecasting Monthly Tourism Flows," Working Paper Series 150, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research, revised 01 Jul 2000.
    10. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi, 2012. "Implications of Cointegration for Forecasting: A Review and an Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(1), pages 87-118, October.
    11. Jorge Luis Tonetto & Adelar Fochezatto & Josep Miquel Pique, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Use of the Menor Preço Brasil Application," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, October.
    12. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
    13. Markus Baltzer & Gerhard Kling, 2005. "Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of different monetary regimes in Germany, 1870 - 2003," Working Papers 5023, Economic History Society.
    14. Yoga Sasmita & Heri Kuswanto & Dedy Dwi Prastyo, 2024. "State-Dependent Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis Vector for Modeling Structural Breaks: Forecasting Indonesian Export," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, February.
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    16. Brian Goff, 2006. "Supreme Court consensus and dissent: Estimating the role of the selection screen," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 367-383, June.
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    22. Medel, Carlos A., 2014. "A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986-2009 with X-12-ARIMA," MPRA Paper 57053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Berta, P. & Lovaglio, P.G. & Paruolo, P. & Verzillo, S., 2020. "Real Time Forecasting of Covid-19 Intensive Care Units demand," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 20/16, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
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    32. Basdevant, Olivier, 2000. "An econometric model of the Russian Federation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 305-336, April.
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    34. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Issler, João Victor, 2008. "A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 668, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    35. Adriatik Hoxha, 2016. "The Wage-Price Setting Behavior: Comparing The Evidence from EU28 and EMU," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 61-102, June.
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    37. Yousuf, Kashif & Ng, Serena, 2021. "Boosting high dimensional predictive regressions with time varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 60-87.
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    40. Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Muhammad Nadim Hanif, 2019. "Learning from Errors While Forecasting Inflation: A Case for Intercept Correction," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 11(1), pages 24-38, April.
    41. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Times of Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
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    44. Christopher G. Gibbs & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Conditionally Optimal Weights and Forward-Looking Approaches to Combining Forecasts," Discussion Papers 2017-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    45. Michael P. Clements & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Asymmetric output‐gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark‐up pricing models: Evidence for the US and the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 359-374, September.
    46. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    47. Lazar, Emese & Wang, Shixuan & Xue, Xiaohan, 2023. "Loss function-based change point detection in risk measures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(1), pages 415-431.
    48. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestwich, 1998. "The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878–1993," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 289-324, March.
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    50. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah, 2017. "GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3880-3890, August.
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    63. Zaher, Fadi, 2007. "Evaluating factor forecasts for the UK: The role of asset prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 679-693.
    64. Scott Moss, 2007. "Alternative Approaches to the Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(1), pages 1-5.
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    66. Peter Spencer & Zhuoshi Liu, "undated". "An Open-Economy Macro-Finance Model of Internatinal Interdependence: The OECD, US and the UK," Discussion Papers 09/16, Department of Economics, University of York.
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    72. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    73. Basdevant, Olivier & Hall, Stephen G., 2002. "The 1998 Russian crisis: could the exchange rate volatility have predicted it?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 151-168, May.
    74. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2023. "An artificial intelligence approach to forecasting when there are structural breaks: a reinforcement learning-based framework for fast switching," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1729-1759, October.
    75. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997. "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September.
    76. Adriatik Hoxha, 2016. "The Switch to Near-Rational Wage-Price Setting Behaviour: The Case of United Kingdom," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(35), pages 127-148, may.
    77. Tommy Wu & Michael Cheng & Ken Wong, 2017. "Bayesian analysis of Hong Kong's housing price dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 312-331, August.
    78. Kyriazi, Foteini & Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Guerard, John B., 2019. "Adaptive learning forecasting, with applications in forecasting agricultural prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1356-1369.
    79. Lin, Jilei & Eck, Daniel J., 2021. "Minimizing post-shock forecasting error through aggregation of outside information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1710-1727.
    80. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    81. Wei, Jie & Zhang, Yonghui, 2020. "A time-varying diffusion index forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    82. William Larson, 2015. "Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates," Working Papers 2015-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    83. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    84. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.

  91. Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1996. "The Econometric Analysis of Economic Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 573-600, November.
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  92. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Forecasting in Cointegration Systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 127-146, April-Jun.

    Cited by:

    1. Josef Baumgartner, 2008. "Die Preistransmission entlang der Wertschöpfungskette in Österreich für ausgewählte Produktgruppen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 33139, April.
    2. Igor Masten & Massimiliano Marcellino & Anindya Banerjeey, 2009. "Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," RSCAS Working Papers 2009/32, European University Institute.
    3. Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2013. "How to Improve the SPF Forecasts?," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 9(2), pages 153-165, April.
    4. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Lester C. Hunt & Ceyhun I. Mikayilov, 2016. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in Azerbaijan Using Cointegration Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-31, December.
    6. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    7. Berument, Hakan & Dogan, Nukhet & Tansel, Aysit, 2008. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 3461, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    9. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Alireza Naghavi, 2015. "Political Institutions and Government Spending Behavior: Theory and Evidence from Iran," Development Working Papers 381, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    10. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi, 2012. "Implications of Cointegration for Forecasting: A Review and an Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(1), pages 87-118, October.
    11. Tom Engsted & Niels Haldrup & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2004. "Long-run forecasting in multicointegrated systems," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 315-335.
    12. Seema Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2015. "The Financial Econometrics of Price Discovery and Predictability," Monash Economics Working Papers 06-15, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    13. Giacomini, Raffaella, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 10201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Anderson, Richard G. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H., 2002. "A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 569-598, December.
    15. Hiroaki Chigira & Taku Yamamoto, 2009. "Forecasting in large cointegrated processes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 631-650.
    16. David Hendry & John Muellbauer, 2017. "The future of macroeconomics: Macro theory and models at the Bank of England," Economics Series Working Papers 832, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Patrick BISCIARI & Alain DURRE & Alain NYSSENS, 2003. "Stock Market Valuation In The United States," Finance 0312011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mohammad Reza FARZANEGAN & Gunther MARKWARDT, 2008. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy," EcoMod2008 23800037, EcoMod.
    19. Luca Nocciola, "undated". "Finite sample forecast properties and window length under breaks in cointegrated systems," Discussion Papers 19/07, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    20. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2016. "Discovering common trends in a large set of disaggregates: statistical procedures and their properties," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1519, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    21. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji, 2019. "Trade openness, political institutions, and military spending (evidence from lifting Iran’s sanctions)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 2013-2041, December.
    22. Richard G. Anderson & Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 2001. "A vector error correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 1998-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    23. Theologos Pantelidis & Nikitas Pittis, 2009. "Estimation and forecasting in first-order vector autoregressions with near to unit roots and conditional heteroscedasticity," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 612-630.
    24. Wani, M.H. & Paul, Ranjit Kumar & Bazaz, Naseer H. & Manzoor, M., 2015. "Market integration and Price Forecasting of Apple in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 1-13.
    25. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Isaac Mwangi, 2013. "Commodity price shocks and inflation in a net oil-importing economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148, June.
    26. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Kuo, Chen-Yin, 2016. "Does the vector error correction model perform better than others in forecasting stock price? An application of residual income valuation theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 772-789.
    28. Guillermo Carlomagno & Antoni Espasa, 2021. "Discovering Specific Common Trends in a Large Set of Disaggregates: Statistical Procedures, their Properties and an Empirical Application," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 641-662, June.
    29. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Ahmed, Tanveer & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2014. "Relationship between Developed, Emerging and South Asian Equity Markets: Empirical Evidence with a Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 60398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. David F. Hendry, 2020. "First in, First out: Econometric Modelling of UK Annual CO_2 Emissions, 1860–2017," Economics Papers 2020-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    31. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Hassan, Mai & Badreldin, Ahmed Mohamed, 2020. "Economic liberalization in Egypt: A way to reduce the shadow economy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 307-327.
    32. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Long-Run Restrictions and Survey Forecasts of Output, Consumption and Investment," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    33. Bratu Simionescu Mihaela, 2012. "Variables Aggregation-Source of Uncertainty in Forecasting," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 59(2), pages 1-13, December.
    34. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2014. "Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 247-269, June.
    35. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mai Hassan, 2017. "The Impact of Economic Globalization on the Shadow Economy in Egypt," CESifo Working Paper Series 6424, CESifo.
    36. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Zakaria, Muhammad & Rehman, Mobeen ur & Ahmed, Tanveer & Khalid, Saniya, 2014. "Co-Movement of Pakistan Stock Exchange with India, S&P 500 and Nikkei 225: A Time-frequency (Wavelets) Analysis," MPRA Paper 60579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2007. "Forecasting the recent behavior of US business fixed investment spending: an analysis of competing models This is a significantly revised version of our previous paper, 'Forecasting US Business Fixed ," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 33-51.
    38. Tian Zhao, 2012. "Firm size, information acquisition and price efficiency," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1599-1614, October.
    39. Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    40. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers 41/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    41. Peña, Daniel & Poncela, Pilar, 2000. "Forecasting with nostationary dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 9959, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    42. Bewley, Ronald, 2002. "Forecast accuracy, coefficient bias and Bayesian vector autoregressions," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 163-169.
    43. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji & Peter A G van Bergeijk, 2013. "Potential early phase success and ultimate failure of economic sanctions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(6), pages 721-736, November.
    44. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2014. "Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 22-35.
    45. Wang, Zijun & Bessler, David A, 2002. "The Homogeneity Restriction and Forecasting Performance of VAR-Type Demand Systems: An Empirical Examination of US Meat Consumption," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 193-206, April.
    46. Zahra Zarepour, 2022. "Short- and long-run macroeconomic impacts of the 2010 Iranian energy subsidy reform," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-32, October.
    47. Tsangyao Chang & Wenshwo Fang & Li-Fang Wen, 2001. "Energy consumption, employment, output, and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 1045-1056.
    48. Patrick Ologbenla, 2019. "Fiscal Policy and External Shocks in Nigeria," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(1), pages 129-138.
    49. Kosei Fukuda, 2011. "Cointegration rank switching model: an application to forecasting interest rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 509-522, August.
    50. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Pooya Alaedini & Khayyam Azizimehr, 2017. "Middle Class in Iran: Oil Rents, Modernization, and Political Development," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201756, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

  93. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Macro-economic Forecasting and Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 1001-1013, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, 2001. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Bank of England working papers 148, Bank of England.
    2. Klaus Weyerstrass, 2002. "The german stability program: A quantitative assessment," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 320-334, September.
    3. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    4. John Berdell & Animesh Ghoshal, 2015. "US–Mexico border tourism and day trips: an aberration in globalization?," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 24(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Sideris, Dimitris A. & Voumvaki, Fragiska K., 2005. "Testing long-run purchasing power parity under exchange rate targeting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 959-981, October.
    6. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Husebo, Tore Anders & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1999. "Equilibrium-correction vs. differencing in macroeconometric forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 515-544, December.
    7. Dario Rukelj & Barbara Ulloa, 2011. "Incorporating uncertainties into economic forecasts: an application to forecasting economic activity in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 140-170.
    8. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    9. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & B. Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio, 1996. "Dynamic econometrics : David F. Hendry, 1995, (Oxford University Press, Oxford), 904 pp., paperback, [UK pound]25.00, ISBN 0-19-828316-4, hardback, [UK pound]50.00, ISBN 0-19-828317-2," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 306-308, June.
    11. Peaucelle, Irina, 1996. "Prévisions de court terme pour analyser les réformes en Russie (les)," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9610, CEPREMAP.
    12. Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre & Pilegaard, Rasmus, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    13. Škovránek, Tomáš & Podlubny, Igor & Petráš, Ivo, 2012. "Modeling of the national economies in state-space: A fractional calculus approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1322-1327.
    14. Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2014. "Forecasting financial and macroeconomic variables using data reduction methods: New empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 352-367.
    15. Zhang, Mingzhu & He, Changzheng & Gu, Xin & Liatsis, Panos & Zhu, Bing, 2013. "D-GMDH: A novel inductive modelling approach in the forecasting of the industrial economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 514-520.
    16. Mattias Villani, 2009. "Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 630-650.
    17. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.

  94. Hendry, David F, 1995. "Econometrics and Business Cycle Empirics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1622-1636, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU, 2016. "Equilibrium and auto regression models used for macroeconomic prognosis," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(7), pages 70-78, July.
    2. Eitrheim,O. & Jansen,E.S. & Nymoen,R., 2000. "Progress from forecast failure : the Norwegian consumption function," Memorandum 32/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    3. Hendry, David F., 1997. "On congruent econometric relations : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 163-190, December.
    4. Bruno Chiarini, 1998. "Cyclicality of real wages and adjustment costs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(9), pages 1239-1250.
    5. Patrick Fève, 1997. "Les méthodes d'étalonnage au regard de l'économétrie," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 629-638.
    6. Barkbu,B.B. & Nymoen,R. & Roed,K., 2001. "Wage coordination and unemployment dynamics in Norway and Sweden," Memorandum 11/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    7. David Hendry & Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Model Identification and Non-unique Structure," Economics Papers 2002-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    8. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2001. "Identification and dimension of the NAIRU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 585-611, December.
    9. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos & Dent, Pamela, 2013. "Forecasting value-at-risk and expected shortfall using fractionally integrated models of conditional volatility: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 21-33.
    10. Duo Qin, 2014. "Inextricability of Autonomy and Confluence in Econometrics," Working Papers 189, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    11. Mohammed Ershad Hussain & Mahfuzul Haque, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Bangladesh," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, April.
    12. Clements Michael P. & Hendry David F., 2008. "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, October.
    13. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    14. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Gregoriou, Andros & Hunter, John & Wu, Feng, 2009. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real economy and stock returns for the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 133-143.
    16. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    17. McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "Irish house prices: Déjà vu all over again?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  95. Hendry, David F, 1994. "HUS Revisited," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 86-106, Summer.

    Cited by:

    1. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, 2001. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Bank of England working papers 148, Bank of England.
    2. Alan Carruth & Heather Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 1999. "Are Aggregate Consumption Relationships Similar Across the European Union?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 17-26.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestiwch, "undated". "The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run," Economics Papers W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    4. Blake, David, 2002. "The impact of wealth on consumption and retirement behaviour in the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24949, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Blake, David, 2003. "Modelling the composition of personal sector wealth in the United Kingdom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24866, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486.
    7. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestwich, 1998. "The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878–1993," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 289-324, March.
    8. Alan Carruth & Andrew Dickerson, 2003. "An asymmetric error correction model of UK consumer spending," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 619-630.
    9. Patterson, K. D., 2003. "Exploiting information in vintages of time-series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 177-197.
    10. Steven Cook, 2001. "Observations on the practice of data-mining: comments on the JEM symposium," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 415-419.
    11. Morris A. Davis & Michael G. Palumbo, 2001. "A primer on the economics and time series econometrics of wealth effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Steve Cook, 2008. "Cross‐data‐vintage Encompassing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 849-865, December.
    13. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July.
    14. Kim, Byung-Yeon, 1999. "The Income, Savings, and Monetary Overhang of Soviet Households," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 644-668, December.
    15. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997. "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September.
    16. David F. Hendry & Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2008. "Guest Editors’ Introduction to Special Issue on Encompassing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 715-719, December.
    17. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.

  96. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2007. "La Tasa de Cambio Real de Equilibrio en Colombia y su Desalineamiento: Estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Borradores de Economia 472, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Keshab Raj Bhattarai, 2016. "Economic Growth and Development in India and SAARC Countries," EcoMod2016 9631, EcoMod.
    3. Keshmeer Makun, 2017. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Malaysia," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(3), pages 157-170, August.
    4. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    5. Wilson Corrêa & Sidney Caetano, 2013. "Monetary policy and transmission mechanism in Brazil: an empirical model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, August.
    6. Nandwa, Boaz & Mohan, Ramesh, 2007. "A Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from Kenya," MPRA Paper 5581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zhang, Zhichao & Chau, Frankie & Zhang, Wenting, 2013. "Exchange rate determination and dynamics in China: A market microstructure analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 303-316.
    8. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2011. "An empirical model for Japan's business fixed investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 107-120, March.
    9. A. Arize, 2000. "U.S. petroleum consumption behavior and oil price uncertainty: Tests of cointegration and parameter instability," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(4), pages 463-477, December.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    12. Shadman-Mehta, Fatemeh, 1996. "Does Modern Econometrics replicate the Phillips Curve?," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1996015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    13. Kleibergen, F.R. & Paap, R., 1998. "Priors, posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9821, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    14. Clara Jørgensen & Hans Christian Kongsted & Anders Rahbek, 1996. "Trend-Stationarity in the I(2) Cointegration Model," Discussion Papers 96-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    15. Kumar, Saten & Pacheco, Gail & Rossouw, Stephanie, 2010. "How to Increase the Growth Rate in South Africa?," MPRA Paper 26105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
    17. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0411, Econometric Society.
    18. B Bhaskara Rao & Fozia Nisha & Biman C Prasad, 2005. "The Effects of Life Expectancy on Fiji's Output: A Time Series Approach from 1970 to 2002," Macroeconomics 0511010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett, 2008. "Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 408, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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    1. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    2. Andrea Giovanni Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2019. "Proxy-SVAR as a Bridge for Identification with Higher Frequency Data," 2019 Meeting Papers 855, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Crawford, Gregory S. & Deer, Lachlan & Smith, Jeremy & Sturgeon, Paul, 2017. "The Regulation of Public Service Broadcasters : Should there be more advertising on television?," Economic Research Papers 269092, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    4. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Financial Uncertainty Shocks: A Daily Identification Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 559, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    5. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Mamingi Nlandu, 2017. "Beauty and Ugliness of Aggregation over Time: A Survey," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(3), pages 205-227, December.
    7. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-136, January.
    8. Alejandro Vicondoa & Andrea Gazzani, 2020. "Bridge Proxy-SVAR: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Shocks Identified at High-Frequency," Documentos de Trabajo 533, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    9. Nader Nazmi & Miguel D. Ramirez, 1997. "Public And Private Investment And Economic Growth In Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 65-75, January.
    10. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Tomáš Kadlec, 2002. "Optimal timing of tv commercials: symmetrical model," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2002(4), pages 356-369.

  103. Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F, 1992. "Testing Integration and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 225-255, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2022. "On the role of stablecoins in cryptoasset pricing dynamics," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, December.
    2. Gilbert, Christopher L. & Tollens, Eric, 2002. "Does Market Liberalization Jeopardize Export Quality? Cameroonian Cocoa, 1995-2000," CEPR Discussion Papers 3224, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Entorf, Horst, 1997. "Random walks with drifts: Nonsense regression and spurious fixed-effect estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 287-296, October.
    4. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Economics Papers 2003-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    5. Zagler, Martin, 2003. "The Dynamics of Economic Growth and Unemployment in Major European Countries: Analysis of Okun´s Law," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(3).
    6. Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil, 2000. "Rationality of Japanese macroeconomic survey forecasts: empirical evidence and comparisons with the US," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 21-31, January.
    7. Eitrheim,O. & Jansen,E.S. & Nymoen,R., 2000. "Progress from forecast failure : the Norwegian consumption function," Memorandum 32/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    8. Martín Vallcorba & Javier Delgado, 2007. "Determinantes de la morosidad bancaria en una economía dolarizada. El caso uruguayo," Working Papers 0722, Banco de España.
    9. Hendry David F & Mizon Grayham E, 2011. "Econometric Modelling of Time Series with Outlying Observations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, February.
    10. Filip, Ondrej & Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Food versus fuel: An updated and expanded evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.
    11. Bettina Becker & Stephen Hall, 2013. "Do R&D strategies in high-tech sectors differ from those in low-tech sectors? An alternative approach to testing the pooling assumption," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 183-202, May.
    12. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    13. David Hendry, 1995. "On the interactions of unit roots and exogeneity," Economics Papers 7., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    14. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS.
    15. Raj Aggarwal & Winston T. Lin & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2008. "Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 1-20, March-Jun.
    16. Carone, Giuseppe, 1996. "Modeling the U.S. demand for imports through cointegration and error correction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-48, February.
    17. Bettina Becker & Stephen Hall, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment in R&D and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 207-223, April.
    18. Richard Heaney, 1998. "A Test of the cost‐of‐carry relationship using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 177-200, April.
    19. Ivars Tillers, 2004. "Money Demand in Latvia," Working Papers 2004/03, Latvijas Banka.
    20. David F. Hendry, 2013. "Retrospective on ‘Econometric Modelling: The Consumption Function in Retrospect’, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 30 (1983), 193–220'," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(5), pages 523-525, November.
    21. Christian Pinshi & Emmanuel Sungani, 2018. "The Relevance Of Pass-Through Effect: Should We Revisit Monetary Policy Regime?," Post-Print hal-02566800, HAL.
    22. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  104. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  105. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  106. Hendry, David F., 1991. "The response of consumption to income: A cross-country investigation : by John Y. Campbell and N. Gregory Mankiw," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 764-767, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Kohei Kubota & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2016. "Rational Consumers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(1), pages 231-254, February.
    2. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl, 2010. "Wie wirken die automatischen Stabilisatoren in der Wirtschaftskrise? Deutschland im Vergleich zu anderen EU‐Staaten und den USA," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 132-145, May.
    3. Huseyin Murat Ozbilgin, 2009. "Financial Market Participation and the Developing Country Business Cycle," Working Papers 0904, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

  107. Hendry, David F, 1991. "Using PC-NAIVE in Teaching Econometrics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(2), pages 199-223, May.

    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. David Hendry, 1995. "On the interactions of unit roots and exogeneity," Economics Papers 7., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

  108. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1990. "An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 275-292, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  109. Hendry, David F & Morgan, Mary S, 1989. "A Re-analysis of Confluence Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 35-52, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Bardsen, G., 1990. "Dynamic Modelling and the Demand for Narrow Money in Norway," Papers 07-90, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
    2. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2007. "Representation in Econometrics: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers 583, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2005. "The First Fifty Years of Modern Econometrics," Working Papers 544, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Duo Qin, 2014. "Inextricability of Autonomy and Confluence in Econometrics," Working Papers 189, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.

  110. Hendry, David F. & Neale, Adrian J. & Srba, Frank, 1988. "Econometric analysis of small linear systems using PC-FIML," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 203-226.

    Cited by:

    1. Criddle, Keith R. & Havenner, Arthur M., 1989. "An Encompassing Approach To Modeling Fishery Dynamics," Working Papers 225824, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2006. "U.S. natural rate dynamics reconsidered," Memorandum 13/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    3. Hendry, David F., 1997. "On congruent econometric relations : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 163-190, December.
    4. Christophe RAULT, 2007. "Une synthèse de l'exogénéité dans les modèles Vectoriels à Correction d'Erreurs," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1723, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    5. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Erlandsen, Solveig & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Consumption and population age structure," Memorandum 27/2004, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    8. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2020. "Identifying the Causal Role of CO2 during the Ice Ages," Economics Series Working Papers 898, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Takala, Kari, 1995. "The consumption function revisited: an error-correction model for Finnish consumption," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/1995, Bank of Finland.
    11. Andre Jungmittag & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2004. "Politikberatung und empirische Wirtschaftsforschung: Entwicklungen, Probleme, Optionen für mehr Rationalität in der Wirtschaftspolitik," EIIW Discussion paper disbei121, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    12. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. In, Francis & Batten, Jonathan & Kim, Sangbae, 2003. "What drives the term and risk structure of Japanese bonds?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 518-541.

  111. Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-149, March.

    Cited by:

    1. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
    2. Vidal Fernadez Montoro, 2001. "Expectations and Behaviour of the Spanish Treasury Bill Rates Patterns in Neighboring Areas," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 5(1), pages 61-83, Summer.
    3. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    4. Diana N. Weymark, 2000. "Using Taylor Rules as Efficiency Benchmarks," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0043, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Sep 2001.
    5. Ragnar Nymoen & Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "The empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 328, Econometric Society.
    6. Arslan Razmi & Robert A. Blecker, 2006. "Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?," Working Papers 2006-06, American University, Department of Economics.
    7. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    8. Roger E.A. Farmer, 1989. "The Lucas Critique Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria," UCLA Economics Working Papers 551, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "The Econometrics of Monetary Policy: an Overview," Working Papers 329, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Błażejowski, Marcin & Kufel, Paweł & Kufel, Tadeusz & Kwiatkowski, Jacek & Osińska, Magdalena, 2018. "Model selection for modeling the demand for narrow money in transitional economies," MPRA Paper 90458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Teun Kloek, 1992. "La construction et l'estimation de petits modèles macro-économiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 51-59.
    12. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2003. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Memorandum 18/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    13. Levent KORAP & Metin YILDIRIM, 2012. "Testing the Lucas Critique for the Turkish Money Demand Function," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(318), pages 57-82.
    14. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Dynamic modelling of the demand for money in Latvia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 53-74, October.
    17. Diana N. Weymark, 2003. "Economic Structure, Policy Objectives, and Optimal Interest Rate Policy at Low Inflation Rates," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0310, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    18. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Hong-Anh Tran, 1993. "Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 457, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Magdalena Osinska & Marcin Blazejowski & Pawel Kufel & Tadeusz Kufel & Jacek Kwiatkowski, 2020. "Narrow Money Demand in Indonesia and in Other Transitional Economies – Model Selection and Forecasting," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1291-1311.
    20. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Luca Fanelli, 2006. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve through Vector Autoregressive models : Results from the Euro area," Quaderni di Dipartimento 0, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
    22. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    23. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Heimonen, Kari, 2001. "Substituting a substitute currency: The case of Estonia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    25. Martin B. Schmidt, 2004. "Exogeneity within the M2 Demand Function: Evidence from a Large Macroeconomic System," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 634-646, October.
    26. Neil R. Ericsson & Sunil Sharma, 1996. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," International Finance Discussion Papers 559, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    28. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
    29. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    30. Alessia Bruzzo & Marco Mazzoli, 2018. "An Empirical Investigation on the European Housing Market Prices," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 12, pages 29-42, May.
    31. Ericsson Neil R., 2008. "Comment on "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World" (by Michael Clements and David Hendry)," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, October.
    32. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    33. Marchionatti, Roberto & Sella, Lisa, 2015. "Is Neo-Walrasian Macroeconomics a Dead End?," CESMEP Working Papers 201502, University of Turin.
    34. László Kónya & Bekzod Abdullaev, 2015. "Does Ricardian equivalence hold in Australia? A revision based on testing super exogeneity with impulse-indicator saturation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 423-448, September.
    35. Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Testing for Structural Change in Conditional Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 310., Boston College Department of Economics.
    36. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "Model Evaluation in Macroeconometrics: from early empirical macroeconomic models to DSGE models," Working Papers 327, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    37. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    38. Carone, Giuseppe, 1996. "Modeling the U.S. demand for imports through cointegration and error correction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-48, February.
    39. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1999. "Encompassing and rational expectations: How sequential corroboration can imply refutation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-21.
    40. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    41. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 895-914, December.
    42. Cheong, ChongCheul, 2003. "Regime changes and econometric modeling of the demand for money in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 437-453, May.
    43. Belke, Ansgar, 2000. "Partisan Political Business Cycles in the German Labour Market? Empirical Tests in the Light of the Lucas-Critique," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(3-4), pages 225-283, September.
    44. Neil R. Ericsson, 1991. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: an overview," International Finance Discussion Papers 415, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    45. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    46. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    47. Blake LeBaron, 2013. "Heterogeneous Agents and Long Horizon Features of Asset Prices," Working Papers 63, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    48. Bjørnstad, Roger & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve tested on OECD panel data," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-4, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    49. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
    50. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    51. Mr. Rodney Ramcharan, 2002. "Migration and Human Capital Formation: Theory and Evidence From the U.S. High School Movement," IMF Working Papers 2002/123, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
    53. John S. Irons & N. Ericsson, "undated". "An early version of The Lucas Critique in Practice: Theory without Measurement," Home Pages _004, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Economics.
    54. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1996. "On the power of tests for superexogeneity and structural invariance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 151-175.
    55. John Paleologos & Grigorios Bitzis, 2006. "Assessing the Effectiveness of the Exchange Rate Movements on the Greek Current Account Deficit: A Cointegration Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 45-64.
    56. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    57. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    58. Roger Bjørnstad & Ragnar Nymoen, 2006. "Will it float? The New Keynesian Phillips curve tested on OECD panel data," Discussion Papers 463, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    59. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  112. Hendry, David F & Neale, Adrian J, 1988. "Interpreting Long-run Equilibrium Solutions in Conventional Macro Models: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 808-817, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew M. Warner, 1992. "Does world investment demand determine U.S. exports?," International Finance Discussion Papers 423, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Udo, Eli A. & Obiora, Isitua K., 2006. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the West African Monetary Zone: A System Equations Approach," Conference papers 331519, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Anders R. Swensen, 2000. "Expectations in Export Price Formation Tests using Cointegrated VAR Models," Discussion Papers 283, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Pål Boug, 1999. "The Demand for Labour and the Lucas Critique. Evidence from Norwegian Manufacturing," Discussion Papers 256, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    6. Ghose, Devajyoti, 1995. "Linear aggregation in cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1011-1032.
    7. Bagnai, Alberto & Carlucci, Francesco, 2003. "An aggregate model for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 623-649, May.
    8. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    9. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.

  113. Hendry, David F., 1988. "Encompassing," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 125, pages 88-103, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Graham, John R., 1996. "Proxies for the corporate marginal tax rate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 187-221, October.

  114. Hendry, David F, 1986. "Using PC-GIVE in Econometrics Teaching," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(1), pages 87-98, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Rahul Verma & Rajesh Mohnot, 2023. "Relative Impact of the U.S. Energy Market Sentiments on Stocks and ESG Index Returns: Evidence from GCC Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 290-300, March.
    2. Ben Smit & Stan du Plessis, 2001. "Inflation and the role of wages in South Africa: A co-integration analysis," Working Papers 01053, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    3. Bent Nielsen & Andrew Whitby, 2015. "A Joint Chow Test for Structural Instability," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    4. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    5. John B. Guerard, 2024. "Sir David Hendry: An Appreciation from Wall Street and What Macroeconomics Got Right," Working Papers 2024-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Feb 2024.

  115. Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-212, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Tyrväinen, Timo, 1991. "Unions, wages and employment: evidence from Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/1991, Bank of Finland.
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    1. Werner, Richard A., 2012. "Towards a new research programme on ‘banking and the economy’ — Implications of the Quantity Theory of Credit for the prevention and resolution of banking and debt crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    3. Bardsen, G., 1990. "Dynamic Modelling and the Demand for Narrow Money in Norway," Papers 07-90, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
    4. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    5. Monticelli, Carlo & Strauss-Kahn, Marc-Olivier, 1993. "European Integration and the Demand for Broad Money," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(4), pages 345-366, December.
    6. Ben Smit & Stan du Plessis, 2001. "Inflation and the role of wages in South Africa: A co-integration analysis," Working Papers 01053, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 893, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 15, pages 427-476, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Hong-Anh Tran, 1993. "Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 457, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. M. T. Alguacil & Vicente Orts, 2002. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment And Imports In Spain," Working Papers 02-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    12. Clavero, Borja, 2017. "A contribution to the Quantity Theory of Disaggregated Credit," MPRA Paper 76657, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Aron, Janine, "undated". "'Leapfrogging': a Survey of the Nature and Economic Implications of Mobile Money," INET Oxford Working Papers 2017-02, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Jan 2017.
    15. Alessia Bruzzo & Marco Mazzoli, 2018. "An Empirical Investigation on the European Housing Market Prices," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 12, pages 29-42, May.
    16. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Rachel Sebudde, 2015. "Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-17, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    17. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1999. "Encompassing and rational expectations: How sequential corroboration can imply refutation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-21.
    18. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 895-914, December.
    19. Neil R. Ericsson, 1991. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: an overview," International Finance Discussion Papers 415, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. M.T. Alguacil & V. Orts, "undated". "A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward FDI: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 50, FEDEA.
    21. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Godwin Nwaobi, 2001. "A Vector Error Correction And Nonnested Modelling Of Money Demand Function In Nigeria," Econometrics 0111004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Janine Aron, 2000. "Monetary Transmission and Policy Rules in South Africa," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1627, Econometric Society.
    24. Robert Leeson, 2000. "Inflation, Disinflation and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Dynamic Framework for Policy Analysis," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 1990s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    25. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.

  119. Anderson, Gordon J & Hendry, David F, 1984. "An Econometric Model of United Kingdom Building Societies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(3), pages 185-210, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1985. "Conditional econometric modelling : an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 254, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Joanna Paisley, 1994. "A Model of Building Society Interest Rate Setting," Bank of England working papers 22, Bank of England.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestiwch, "undated". "The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run," Economics Papers W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestwich, 1998. "The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878–1993," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 289-324, March.
    6. Janko, Zuzana, 2020. "On the relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance: The case of Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 314, Bank of England.
    8. Geoffrey P. Meen, 1989. "The Ending of Mortgage Rationing and its Effects on the Housing Market: A Simulation Study," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 26(2), pages 240-252, April.
    9. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  120. Hendry, David F & Marshall, Robert C, 1983. "On High and Low R2 Contributions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 45(3), pages 313-316, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Savedoff, William D., 1991. "Wage Dynamics in Urban Brazil: Evidence of Regional Segmentation or National Markets?," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 11(2), November.

  121. Hendry, David F, 1983. "On Keynesian Model Building and the Rational Expectations Critique: A Question of Methodology," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 7(1), pages 69-75, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Grahame Thompson, 1993. "Causality in economics: Rhetorical ethic or positivist empiric?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 47-71, February.

  122. Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1983. "Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 277-304, March.
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  123. Hendry, David F, 1983. "Econometric Modelling: The "Consumption Function" in Retrospect," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 193-220, November.

    Cited by:

    1. David Rae, 1997. "A forward-looking model of aggregate consumption in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 199-220.
    2. Alan Carruth & Heather Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 1999. "Are Aggregate Consumption Relationships Similar Across the European Union?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 17-26.
    3. Ragnar Nymoen & Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "The empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 328, Econometric Society.
    4. Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1991. "Consommation privée et endettement public en Italie et en Belgique : existe-t-il une relation stable ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 79-121.
    5. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    6. Steven Cook, 1999. "Methodological aspects of the encompassing principle," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 61-78.
    7. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 2017. "Measuring agency costs and the value of investment opportunities of US bank holding companies with stochastic frontier estimation," Chapters, in: Jacob A. Bikker & Laura Spierdijk (ed.), Handbook of Competition in Banking and Finance, chapter 11, pages 205-229, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Christine Godfrey, 1993. "Banning tobacco advertising: Can health economists contribute to the debate?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-5, April.
    9. Andreas A. Andrikopoulos & Dimitrios C. Gkountanis, 2011. "Issues and Models in Applied Econometrics: A partial survey," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 9(2), pages 107-165.
    10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 893, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. John Baffore-Bonnie & Mohammed Khayum, 1997. "Economic Development, Life-Cycle Consumption and Planning Hirizon," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 17-37.
    12. Baltagi, B.H. & Mokhtari, M., 1988. "Intercountry Evidence On The Performance Of The Simple Error Correction Mechanism Model Of Consumption," Papers 4, Houston - Department of Economics.
    13. Policy Analyst - UNICEF Zimbabwe, 2002. "Evidence on the demand for money function in Uganda," Development and Comp Systems 0210005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Christophe RAULT, 2007. "Une synthèse de l'exogénéité dans les modèles Vectoriels à Correction d'Erreurs," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1723, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    15. Nicholas Dimsdale & Nicholas Horsewood, 2009. "The dynamics of consumption and investment in the late Victorian economy," Working Papers 9007, Economic History Society.
    16. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    17. Galindo, Luis Miguel & Samaniego, Joseluis & Ferrer, Jimy & Alatorre, José Eduardo & Reyes, Orlando, 2016. "Cambio climático, políticas públicas y demanda de energía y gasolinas en América Latina: un meta-análisis," Documentos de Proyectos 40841, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    18. Hughes, Joseph P. & Moon, Choon-Geol, 2022. "How bad is a bad loan? Distinguishing inherent credit risk from inefficient lending (Does the capital market price this difference?)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Kloek, T., 1986. "How Can We Get Rid Of Dogmatic Prior Information?," Econometric Institute Archives 272348, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    20. John Foster, 2017. "Prior Commitment and Uncertainty in Complex Economic Systems: Reinstating History in the Core of Economic Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 392-418, September.
    21. V. Smith & Ju Huang, 1993. "Hedonic models and air pollution: Twenty-five years and counting," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 3(4), pages 381-394, August.
    22. Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Peter Smith & W. N. W. Azman-Saini, 2006. "Testing liquidity constraints in 10 Asian developing countries: an error-correction model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2535-2543.
    23. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 895-914, December.
    24. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 2016. "Market Discipline Working for and Against Financial Stability: The Two Faces of Equity Capital in U.S. Commercial Banking," Departmental Working Papers 201611, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    25. Spanos, Aris, 1989. "On Rereading Haavelmo: A Retrospective View of Econometric Modeling," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 405-429, December.
    26. Neil R. Ericsson, 1991. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: an overview," International Finance Discussion Papers 415, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Patterson, K. D., 2003. "Exploiting information in vintages of time-series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 177-197.
    28. Keunkwan Ryu & Kuo-yuan Liang, 1992. "Relationship of Forecast Encompassing to Composite Forecasts with Simulations and an Application," UCLA Economics Working Papers 668, UCLA Department of Economics.
    29. Rod Cross & Harold Hutchinson & Serena Yeoward, 1990. "The natural rate versus the hysteresis hypothesis: A century of prices and unemployment in the U.S. and U.K," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 126(1), pages 156-164, March.
    30. Cuthbertson, K. & Gasparro, D., 1995. "Fixed investment decisions in UK manufacturing: The importance of Tobin's Q, output and debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 919-941, May.
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    32. Mizon, Grayham E., 1995. "A simple message for autocorrelation correctors: Don't," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 267-288, September.
    33. Craig A. Depken II & Dennis P. Wilson, 2004. "The Efficiency of the NASCAR Reward System," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 5(4), pages 371-386, November.
    34. David F. Hendry, 2013. "Retrospective on ‘Econometric Modelling: The Consumption Function in Retrospect’, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 30 (1983), 193–220'," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(5), pages 523-525, November.
    35. van Giersbergen, Noud P.A., 2016. "The ability to correct the bias in the stable AD(1,1) model with a feedback effect," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 186-204.
    36. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  124. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1985. "Conditional econometric modelling : an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 254, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation," NBER Working Papers 2233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Pami Dua, 1993. "Interest Rates, Government Purchases, and Budget Deficits: a Forward-Looking Model," Public Finance Review, , vol. 21(4), pages 470-478, October.
    6. A. D. Owen & K. Chowdhury & J. R. R. Garrido, 1996. "A market share model for vegetable and tropical oils," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 95-99.
    7. Kiviet, Jan F., 1985. "Model selection test procedures in a single linear equation of a dynamic simultaneous system and their defects in small samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 327-362, June.
    8. Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1991. "Consommation privée et endettement public en Italie et en Belgique : existe-t-il une relation stable ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 79-121.
    9. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    10. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    11. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," UC3M Working papers. Economics we081810, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    12. Luigi Ermini & David F. Hendry, 2008. "Log Income vs. Linear Income: An Application of the Encompassing Principle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 807-827, December.
    13. Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon & Chiara Monfardini, 2008. "Simulation Encompassing: Testing Non‐nested Hypotheses," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 781-806, December.
    14. Bardsen, G., 1990. "Dynamic Modelling and the Demand for Narrow Money in Norway," Papers 07-90, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
    15. Udo, Eli A. & Obiora, Isitua K., 2006. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the West African Monetary Zone: A System Equations Approach," Conference papers 331519, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. John J. Beggs, 1988. "Diagnostic Testing in Applied Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(2), pages 81-101, June.
    17. Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu & Wang, Shouyang, 2014. "Frequentist model averaging for multinomial and ordered logit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 118-128.
    18. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
    19. Ketenci, Natalya & Uz, Idil, 2010. "Determinants of current account in the EU: the relation between internal and external balances in the new members," MPRA Paper 27466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    21. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Kesavan, T. & Hassan, Zuhair A. & Jensen, Helen H. & Johnson, Stanley R., 1993. "Dynamics and Long-Run Structure in U.S. Meat Demand," Staff General Research Papers Archive 635, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    24. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2002. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4n99t4wz, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    25. Jim Granato & William West, 1994. "Words And Deeds: Symbolic Politics And Decision Making At The Federal Reserve," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 233-255, November.
    26. Schimmelpfennig, David & Lowenberg-DeBoer, James, 2020. "Farm types and precision agriculture adoption: crops, regions, soil variability, and farm size," Land, Farm & Agribusiness Management Department 304070, Harper Adams University, Land, Farm & Agribusiness Management Department.
    27. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2013. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the Great Moderation era: New evidence from G10 countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-32.
    28. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 893, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    29. Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 857, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    30. Ray C. Fair, 1992. "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics," NBER Working Papers 3990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Ray Fair & John Oster, 2002. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2377, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    32. James J. Heckman, 2000. "Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economics: A Twentieth Century Retrospective," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 45-97.
    33. De Andrés Mosquera, Andrés, 2017. "Los determinantes a largo plazo y su contribución a la tasa de ahorro de los hogares españoles en el período 1985-2016 || Long-term determinants and its contribution to Spanish household saving rate d," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 24(1), pages 292-339, Diciembre.
    34. Chen, Yi-Ting & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2002. "The pseudo-true score encompassing test for non-nested hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 271-295, February.
    35. Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestiwch, "undated". "The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run," Economics Papers W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    36. Mitroussi, K. & Abouarghoub, W. & Haider, J.J. & Pettit, S.J. & Tigka, N., 2016. "Performance drivers of shipping loans: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(P3), pages 438-452.
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    39. Merkies, A.H.Q.M. & Steyn, I.J., 1988. "Adaptive forecasting with hyperfilters," Serie Research Memoranda 0018, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    40. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Return Variability," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    41. Townsend, Rob F. & Thirtle, Colin G., 1997. "Production Incentives for Small Scale Farmers in Zimbabwe: The Case of Cotton and Maize," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 36(3), pages 1-17, September.
    42. Galvao Jr, A. F. & Montes-Rojas, G. & Park, S. Y., 2009. "Quantile autoregressive distributed lag model with an application to house price returns," Working Papers 09/04, Department of Economics, City University London.
    43. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1990. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some empirical evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0078, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    44. STALDER Peter, 2010. "Pegging the Swiss Franc to the Euro in a World with Different Types of Shocks," EcoMod2003 330700140, EcoMod.
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    47. SUCARRAT, Genaro, 2006. "The first stage in Hendry’s reduction theory revisited," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2006082, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    48. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    49. Geweke, John F. & Horowitz, Joel L. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird's Eye View," IZA Discussion Papers 2458, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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  125. Hendry, David F., 1982. "A reply to Professors Maasoumi and Phillips," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 203-213, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson, 1986. "Post-simulation Analysis of Monte Carlo Experiments: Interpreting Pesaran's (1974) Study of Non-nested Hypothesis Test Statistics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 691-707.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Hendry, David F., 1984. "Monte carlo experimentation in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 937-976, Elsevier.
    4. Partha Deb & James F. Burgess, Jr., 2003. "A Quasi-experimental Comparison of Econometric Models for Health Care Expenditures," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 212, Hunter College Department of Economics.
    5. Jan F. Kiviet & Jerzy Niemczyk, 2014. "On the Limiting and Empirical Distributions of IV Estimators When Some of the Instruments are Actually Endogenous," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips, volume 33, pages 425-490, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

  126. Davidson, James E. H. & Hendry, David F., 1981. "Interpreting econometric evidence : The behaviour of consumers' expenditure in the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 177-192.

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Wealth Effetcs on Consumption: Evidence from the euro area," NIPE Working Papers 12/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1985. "Conditional econometric modelling : an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 254, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Kiviet, Jan F., 1985. "Model selection test procedures in a single linear equation of a dynamic simultaneous system and their defects in small samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 327-362, June.
    5. Ahmed M. Khalid, 1994. "Empirical Tests of the Rational Expectations — Permanent Income Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1043-1053.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2008. "Consumption and income smoothing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2191-2207.
    8. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2005. "Consumption, (Dis) Aggregate Wealth and Asset Returns," NIPE Working Papers 9/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. John Baffore-Bonnie & Mohammed Khayum, 1997. "Economic Development, Life-Cycle Consumption and Planning Hirizon," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 17-37.
    10. Ian Domowitz & Lars Muus, 1985. "Inference in the Explosive First-Order Linear Dynamic Regression Model," Discussion Papers 672, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    11. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    12. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    13. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    15. Ekaterina Arapova, 2018. "Determinants Of Household Final Consumption Expenditures In Asian Countries: A Panel Model, 1991-2015," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 18(1), pages 121-140.
    16. Schumacher, J.M., 1990. "System-theoretic trends in econometrics," Other publications TiSEM a43f267f-2db4-4753-b2b2-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. David F. Hendry, 2013. "Econometric Modelling: The ‘Consumption Function’ In Retrospect," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(5), pages 495-522, November.
    18. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    20. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, "undated". "Real Interest Rates, Liquidity Constraints and Financial Deregulation: Private Consumption Behaviour in the UK," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 97-12, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    21. Lise Pichette, 2000. "Les effets réels du cours des actions sur la consommation," Staff Working Papers 00-21, Bank of Canada.
    22. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    23. Denise Côté & Marianne Johnson, 1998. "Consumer Attitudes, Uncertainty, and Consumer Spending," Staff Working Papers 98-16, Bank of Canada.
    24. Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-678, May.
    25. Takala, Kari, 1995. "The consumption function revisited: an error-correction model for Finnish consumption," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/1995, Bank of Finland.
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    27. Jan F. Kiviet, 1986. "On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relationships," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(2), pages 241-261.
    28. David F. Hendry, 2013. "Retrospective on ‘Econometric Modelling: The Consumption Function in Retrospect’, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 30 (1983), 193–220'," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(5), pages 523-525, November.
    29. John James Thomas, 1986. "Algunos desarrollos recientes en la metodología de la econometría aplicada," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 19, pages 209-240.
    30. Alvin Tan & Graham Voss, 2003. "Consumption and Wealth in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 39-56, March.
    31. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2003. "Property of stocks and wealth effects on consumption," NIPE Working Papers 2/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    32. Muhammad Abdullah & Rukhsana Kalim, 2016. "Impact of Global Food Price Escalation on Poverty in South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 543-559.
    33. Fredj Jawadi & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Consumption and Wealth in the US, the UK and the Euro Area:A Nonlinear Investigation," NIPE Working Papers 24/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    34. Maslov, Alexander, 2011. "Inflationary Handicap Of The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence From Russia," MPRA Paper 50036, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Apr 2012.
    35. Bokana K.G & Kabongo W.N.S, 2018. "Modelling Real Private Consumption Expenditure in South Africa to Test the Absolute Income Hypothesis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(5), pages 138-155.
    36. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  127. Hendry, David F. & Srba, Frank, 1980. "Autoreg: a computer program library for dynamic econometric models with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 85-102, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 1986. "Post-simulation Analysis of Monte Carlo Experiments: Interpreting Pesaran's (1974) Study of Non-nested Hypothesis Test Statistics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 691-707.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    6. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    7. David F. Hendry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2017. "John Denis Sargan at the London School of Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2082, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. John Burkett & Richard Portes & David Winter, 1981. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Foreign Trade of Centrally Planned Economies," NBER Working Papers 0736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  128. Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1980. "An Empirical Application and Monte Carlo Analysis of Tests of Dynamic Specification," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 21-45.

    Cited by:

    1. Kiviet, Jan F., 1985. "Model selection test procedures in a single linear equation of a dynamic simultaneous system and their defects in small samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 327-362, June.
    2. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson, 1986. "Post-simulation Analysis of Monte Carlo Experiments: Interpreting Pesaran's (1974) Study of Non-nested Hypothesis Test Statistics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 691-707.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Kesavan, T. & Hassan, Zuhair A. & Jensen, Helen H. & Johnson, Stanley R., 1993. "Dynamics and Long-Run Structure in U.S. Meat Demand," Staff General Research Papers Archive 635, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 893, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Haluk Erlat, 1991. "An Ex Post Statistical Assessment of the Central Bank Quarterly Econometric Model of Turkey," Discussion Papers 9108, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    8. Baltagi, B.H. & Mokhtari, M., 1988. "Intercountry Evidence On The Performance Of The Simple Error Correction Mechanism Model Of Consumption," Papers 4, Houston - Department of Economics.
    9. Adam Bennett, 1989. "The accelerator's debt to simultaneity : a demonstration on French data," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(1), pages 81-88.
    10. Kodde, D.A. & Palm, F.C., 1982. "Computing wald criteria for nested hypotheses with Econometric Applications," Serie Research Memoranda 0027, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
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    12. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Hendry, David F., 1984. "Monte carlo experimentation in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 937-976, Elsevier.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Palm, F.C. & Kodde, D.A. & Vogelvang, E., 1980. "Efficient estimation of the geometric distributed lag model : some Monte Carlo results on small sample properties," Serie Research Memoranda 0012, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.

  133. Hendry, David F., 1976. "The structure of simultaneous equations estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 51-88, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Selma Toker, 2020. "Investigating the two parameter analysis of Lipovetsky for simultaneous systems," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2059-2089, October.
    2. Calzolari, Giorgio, 2012. "Econometric notes," MPRA Paper 71440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Oya, Kosuke & Morimune, Kimio, 1992. "The distribution of the full information maximum likelihood estimator," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 569-574.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Neil R. Ericsson & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "A retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and his contributions to econometrics," International Finance Discussion Papers 700, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Hendry, David F., 1984. "Monte carlo experimentation in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 937-976, Elsevier.
    7. David Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Economics Series Working Papers 529, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Siregar, Reza Yamora & Goo, Siwei, 2010. "Effectiveness and commitment to inflation targeting policy: Evidence from Indonesia and Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 113-128, April.
    9. Boswijk, H. Peter, 1995. "Efficient inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 133-158, September.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. J. Campos, 1986. "Instrumental Variables Estimation of Dynamic Simultaneous Systems with ARMA Errors," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(1), pages 125-138.
    12. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    14. Tian Xie, 2012. "Least Squares Model Averaging By Prediction Criterion," Working Paper 1299, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    15. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2020. "Identifying the Causal Role of CO2 during the Ice Ages," Economics Series Working Papers 898, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Hendry, David F., 2001. "Achievements and challenges in econometric methodology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 7-10, January.
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    18. Aris Spanos, 2022. "Statistical modeling and inference in the era of Data Science and Graphical Causal modeling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1251-1287, December.
    19. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    20. Verner, Dorte, 1999. "The macro wage curve and labor market flexibility in Zimbabwe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2052, The World Bank.
    21. David F. Hendry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2017. "John Denis Sargan at the London School of Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2082, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    22. Siregar, Reza, 2009. "Pursuing Inflation Targeting Policy Framework in the Midst of Inflationary Pressures and Fiscal Constraint in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 18791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    25. Richard Harmon, 1988. "The simultaneous equations model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity: the SEM-GRACH model," International Finance Discussion Papers 322, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Palm, F.C. & Zellner, A., 1978. "Large sample estimation and testing procedures for dynamic equation systems," Serie Research Memoranda 0010, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    27. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Neil Shephard, "undated". "Computationally-intensive Econometrics using a Distributed Matrix-programming Language," Economics Papers 2001-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    28. Reza Siregar & Siwei Goo, 2008. "Inflation Targeting Policy: The Experiences Of Indonesia And Thailand," CAMA Working Papers 2008-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    29. Morimune, Kimio, 1990. "Full Information Method in Estimating Simultaneous Equations System," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 41(3), pages 206-217, July.
    30. Hall, Anthony David & Pagan, Adrian Rodney, 1981. "The LIML and Related Estimators of an Equation with Moving Average Disturbances," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 719-730, October.
    31. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  134. Hendry, David F & Tremayne, Andrew R, 1976. "Estimating Systems of Dynamic Reduced Form Equations with Vector Autoregressive Errors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 463-471, June.

    Cited by:

    1. David F. Hendry & Gordon J. Anderson, 1975. "Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: An Application to a Model of Building Society Behavior in the United Kingdom," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 398, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

  135. Hendry, David F, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Systems of Simultaneous Regression Equations with Errors Generated by a Vector Autoregressive Process: A Correction," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 260-260, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Jansson, Leif & Mellander, Erik, 1984. "CONRAD – A Maximum Likelihood Program for Estimation of Simultaneous Equations Models that are Non-Linear in the Parameters," Working Paper Series 131, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.

  136. Hendry, David F, 1974. "Stochastic Specification in an Aggregate Demand Model of the United Kingdom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 559-578, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Geoffrey M. Heal, 1975. "The Influence of Interest Rates on Resource Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 407, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    3. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    4. Daly, Kevin, 1998. "Does exchange rate volatility impede the volume of Japan's bilateral trade?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 333-348, July.
    5. Teuku Rahmatsyah & Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Reza Siregar, 2002. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade and “Fixing for Life” in Thailand," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-12, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    6. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. David F. Hendry & Gordon J. Anderson, 1975. "Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: An Application to a Model of Building Society Behavior in the United Kingdom," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 398, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Tai-Yuen HON, 2016. "The Relationship Between Consumption and Income," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 94-99, March.
    9. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Daniel Himarios, 1986. "Administered interest rates and the demand for money in Greece under rational expectations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 122(1), pages 173-188, March.
    11. Palm, F.C., 1981. "Structural econometric modelling and time series analysis towards an integrated approach," Serie Research Memoranda 0004, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    12. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Rahul Sen & Reza Siregar, 2003. "Singapore and the New Regionalism: Bilateral Trade Linkages with Japan and the US," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(9), pages 1325-1356, September.
    13. Pushan Dutt & V. Padmanabhan, 2011. "Crisis and Consumption Smoothing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 491-512, 05-06.
    14. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  137. Hendry, David F. & Harrison, Robin W., 1974. "Monte Carlo methodology and the small sample behaviour of ordinary and two-stage least squares," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 151-174, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Calzolari, Giorgio & Di Iorio, Francesca & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 1996. "Control variates for variance reduction in indirect inference: interest rate models in continuous time," MPRA Paper 23160, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 1996.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Neil R. Ericsson & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "A retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and his contributions to econometrics," International Finance Discussion Papers 700, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Hendry, David F., 1984. "Monte carlo experimentation in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 937-976, Elsevier.
    5. Giorgio Calzolari & F. Di Iorio & G. Fiorentini, 1999. "Indirect Estimation of Just-Identified Models with Control Variates," Econometrics Working Papers Archive quaderno46, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    6. David F. Hendry, 1975. "The Limiting Distribution of Inconsistent Instrumental Variables Estimators in a Class of Stationary Stochastic Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 399, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Streibel, Mariane & Harvey, Andrew, 1993. "Estimation of simultaneous equation models with stochastic trend components," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 263-287.
    8. David F. Hendry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2017. "John Denis Sargan at the London School of Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2082, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1983. "Standard errors of forecasts in dynamic simulation of nonlinear econometric models: some empirical results," MPRA Paper 22657, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1983.

  138. D. F. Hendry & P. K. Trivedi, 1972. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Difference Equations with Moving Average Errors: A Simulation Study," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 39(2), pages 117-145.

    Cited by:

    1. Geoffrey M. Heal, 1975. "The Influence of Interest Rates on Resource Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 407, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Beach, Charles M. & Yeo, Stephen, 1979. "Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Regression Equations with a General Stationary Auto-Regressive Disturbance," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275148, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1992. "Regression-based methods for using control variates in Monte Carlo experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 203-222.
    5. Hendry, David F., 1984. "Monte carlo experimentation in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 937-976, Elsevier.
    6. C. R. McKenzie & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Comparing Tests of Autoregressive Versus Moving Average Errors in Regression Models Using Bahadur's Asymptotic Relative Efficiency," ISER Discussion Paper 0537, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    7. Russell Davidson & James G. Mackinnon, 1990. "Regression-Based Methods for Using Control and Antithetic Variates in Monte Carlo Experiments," Working Paper 781, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    8. David F. Hendry & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2017. "John Denis Sargan at the London School of Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2082, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Jan F. Kiviet, 1986. "On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relationships," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(2), pages 241-261.
    10. Denise R. Osborn, 1976. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Moving Average Processes," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 1, pages 75-87, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  139. Hendry, D F, 1971. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Systems of Simultaneous Regression Equations with Errors Generated by a Vector Autoregressive Process," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 12(2), pages 257-272, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Geoffrey M. Heal, 1975. "The Influence of Interest Rates on Resource Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 407, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2009. "Dynamic Specification Tests for Static Factor Models," Working Papers wp2009_0912, CEMFI.
    3. Beach, Charles M. & Yeo, Stephen, 1979. "Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Regression Equations with a General Stationary Auto-Regressive Disturbance," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275148, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    4. Turkington, Darrell A., 1998. "Efficient estimation in the linear simultaneous equations model with vector autoregressive disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 51-74, July.
    5. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1984. "Evaluating Forecast Uncertainty in Econometric Models: The Effect of Alternative Estimators of Maximum Likelihood Covariance Matrix," MPRA Paper 28806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Deschamps, P.J., 1990. "Joint Tests for Regularity and Autocorrelation in Allocation Systems," Other publications TiSEM 134d5195-1d9c-4388-b074-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Phoebus J. Dhrymes, 1971. "Full Information Estimation of Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Models with Autoregressive Errors," UCLA Economics Working Papers 008, UCLA Department of Economics.
    8. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2013. "Dynamic Specification Tests for Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2013_1306, CEMFI.
    9. David F. Hendry & Gordon J. Anderson, 1975. "Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: An Application to a Model of Building Society Behavior in the United Kingdom," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 398, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2000. "Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 1302, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 29 Jan 2002.
    11. Giorgio Calzolari, 2015. "Indirect estimation and econometrics exams: how to live a round life," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2015_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    12. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1987. "La varianza delle previsioni nei modelli econometrici [Forecast variance in econometric models]," MPRA Paper 23866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Vincent, David P., 1977. "Factor Substitution In Australian Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 21(2), pages 1-11, August.
    14. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1983. "Hessian and approximated Hessian matrices in maximum likelihood estimation: a Monte Carlo study," MPRA Paper 28847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1981. "Alternative estimates of the Klein-I model," MPRA Paper 23337, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 1981.
    16. van Dijk, H. K. & Kloek, T., 1978. "Posterior Analysis Of Klein'S Model," Econometric Institute Archives 272173, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    17. Fisher, Brian S., 1979. "The Demand For Meat - An Example Of An Incomplete Commodity Demand System," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 23(3), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Jansson, Leif & Mellander, Erik, 1984. "CONRAD – A Maximum Likelihood Program for Estimation of Simultaneous Equations Models that are Non-Linear in the Parameters," Working Paper Series 131, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    19. Rude, James & Goddard, Ellen W., 1995. "Analysis of the Cost Structure for Processed Products: The Case of the Canadian Dairy Processing Sector," Working Papers 244804, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    20. Unknown, 1979. "On Biased Technological Progress: Comment and Extension," Working Papers 225650, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    21. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1984. "A Simulation Study on FIML Covariance Matrix," MPRA Paper 28804, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Khaleel, Tarek Mohamed & Shehata, Emad Abd Elmessih, 2004. "دراسة قياسية للنماذج الديناميكية مع تطبيقها على التنبؤ بالعمالة فى مصر [An Econometric Study of Dynamic Models with Application on Forecasting Labor in Egypt]," MPRA Paper 43442, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2004.
    23. Rich, M.M., 1979. "New Zealand Beef And Sheep Supply Relationships," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 23(2), pages 1-14, August.
    24. Denise R. Osborn, 1976. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Moving Average Processes," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 1, pages 75-87, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Wilson, William W. & Wilson, Wesley W. & Koo, Won W., 1987. "Intermodal Competition and Pricing in Grain Transportation: A Description and Comparison of Methods," Agricultural Economics Reports 23194, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    26. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Tests for Serial Dependence in Static, Non-Gaussian Factor Models," Working Papers wp2012_1211, CEMFI.

Chapters

  1. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2022. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 143-165, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Anthropogenic influences on atmospheric CO2," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 12, pages 287-326, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. David F. Hendry, 2009. "The Methodology of Empirical Econometric Modeling: Applied Econometrics Through the Looking-Glass," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 1, pages 3-67, Palgrave Macmillan.

    Cited by:

    1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
    2. David Colander & Hans Föllmer & Armin Haas & Michael Goldberg & Katarina Juselius & Alan Kirman & Thomas Lux & Birgitte Sloth, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics," Discussion Papers 09-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. David Colander, 2009. "Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and the European CVAR Approach to Macroeconometrics," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0912, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    4. Guillaume Chevillon & Alain Hecq & Sébastien Laurent, 2018. "Generating Univariate Fractional Integration within a Large VAR(1)," AMSE Working Papers 1844, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    5. Stuart Birks, 2012. "Rethinking economics: Logical gaps – empirical to the real world," Working Papers 20121217, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    6. Chevillon, G. & Hecq, A.W. & Laurent, S.F.J.A., 2015. "Long memory through marginalization of large systems and hidden cross-section dependence," Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    7. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga, 2013. "Comparing variable selection techniques for linear regression: LASSO and Autometrics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13080, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Duo Qin, 2019. "Let’s take the bias out of econometrics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 81-98, April.
    9. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    10. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Qin, Duo & Xu, Zhong & Zhang, Xuechun, 2014. "How much informal credit lending responded to monetary policy in China? The case of Wenzhou," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 22-31.
    12. Hendry David F & Mizon Grayham E, 2011. "Econometric Modelling of Time Series with Outlying Observations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, February.
    13. Wang, Yi & Niu, Geng & Zhou, Yang & Lu, Weijie, 2023. "Broadband internet and stock market participation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Duo Qin & Sophie van H¸llen & Qing-Chao Wang, 2014. "What Happens to Wage Elasticities When We Strip Playometrics? Revisiting Married Women Labour Supply Model," Working Papers 190, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    15. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga & Joel Correa da Rosa, 2017. "Variable selection and forecasting via automated methods for linear models: LASSO/adaLASSO and Autometrics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00917797, HAL.
    16. Møller, Niels Framroze & Andersen, Laura Mørch & Hansen, Lars Gårn & Jensen, Carsten Lynge, 2019. "Can pecuniary and environmental incentives via SMS messaging make households adjust their electricity demand to a fluctuating production?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1050-1058.
    17. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    18. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2010. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Economics Series Working Papers 474, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Owen, P. Dorian, 2018. "Replication to assess statistical adequacy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-16.
    20. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2020. "Identifying the Causal Role of CO2 during the Ice Ages," Economics Series Working Papers 898, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    21. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2014. "Model selection in under-specified equations facing breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 286-293.
    22. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    23. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    24. P. Dorian Owen, 2015. "Evaluating ingenious instruments for fundamental determinants of long-run economic growth and development," Working Papers 1508, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2015.
    25. Jennifer Castle & Xiaochuan Qin & W. Robert Reed, 2011. "Using Model Selection Algorthims to Obtain Reliable Coefficient Estimates," Working Papers in Economics 11/03, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    26. Katarina Juselius, 2009. "Time to reject the privileging of economic theory over empirical evidence? A Reply to Lawson (2009)," Discussion Papers 09-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    27. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
    28. Niels Framroze Møller & Laura Mørch Andersen & Lars Gårn Hansen & Carsten Lynge Jensen, 2018. "Can pecuniary and environmental incentives via SMS messaging make households adjust their intra-day electricity demand to a fluctuating production?," IFRO Working Paper 2018/06, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    29. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    30. Boris Salazar, 2016. "Mandelbrot, Fama and the emergence of econophysics," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 35(69), pages 637-662, April.
    31. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.
    32. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2011. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2," Economics Series Working Papers 584, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    33. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    34. Duo Qin & Sophie Van Huellen & Qing-Chao Wang, 2015. "How Credible Are Shrinking Wage Elasticities of Married Women Labour Supply?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, December.

  4. David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 2007. "Preface to Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach," Introductory Chapters, in: Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach, Princeton University Press.

    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "A banklevel analysis of interest rate passthrough in South Africa," Working Papers 11027, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Steven F. Lehrer & Tian Xie, 2022. "The Bigger Picture: Combining Econometrics with Analytics Improves Forecasts of Movie Success," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 189-210, January.
    3. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
    4. Rahul Verma & Rajesh Mohnot, 2023. "Relative Impact of the U.S. Energy Market Sentiments on Stocks and ESG Index Returns: Evidence from GCC Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 290-300, March.
    5. Monique Reid & Gideon du Rand, 2013. "A sticky information Phillips curve for South Africa," Working Papers 22/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    6. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & José M. Mota, 2015. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2015/260, International Monetary Fund.
    7. W H Boshoff, 2012. "Gasoline, Diesel Fuel And Jet Fuel Demand In South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 43-78, April.
    8. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga & Joel Correa da Rosa, 2017. "Variable selection and forecasting via automated methods for linear models: LASSO/adaLASSO and Autometrics," Post-Print halshs-00917797, HAL.
    9. Antonia Lòpez-Villavicencio & Luis Antonio Reyes Ortiz, 2018. "Is globalisation taking away jobs? An empirical assessment for advanced economies," Working Papers halshs-01895223, HAL.
    10. Escribano, Álvaro & Guasch, J. Luis & Pena, Jorge, 2019. "Investment Climate Effects on Alternative Firm-Level Productivity Measures," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28639, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    11. Bec, Frédérique & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Nowcasting French GDP in real-time with surveys and “blocked” regressions: Combining forecasts or pooling information?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1021-1042.
    12. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga, 2013. "Comparing variable selection techniques for linear regression: LASSO and Autometrics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13080, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    13. Soyer, Emre & Hogarth, Robin M., 2012. "The illusion of predictability: How regression statistics mislead experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 695-711.
    14. Mauleón, Ignacio & Hamoudi, Hamid, 2017. "Photovoltaic and wind cost decrease estimation: Implications for investment analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1054-1065.
    15. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Birru, Yohannes A., 2010. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 478, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 03 Jun 2013.
    16. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga & Joel Correa da Rosa, 2017. "Variable selection and forecasting via automated methods for linear models: LASSO/adaLASSO and Autometrics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00917797, HAL.
    18. Jonas Harnau, 2018. "Log-Normal or Over-Dispersed Poisson?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-37, July.
    19. Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "A Recursive Monte Carlo Study of Structural-Break Sensitivity of Adjustment Coefficients in Cointegrated VAR Systems," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 251-270, June.
    20. Steven Lehrer & Tian Xie, 2016. "Box Office Buzz: Does Social Media Data Steal the Show from Model Uncertainty When Forecasting for Hollywood?," NBER Working Papers 22959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Paul Plummer & Michael Taylor, 2011. "Enterprise and Competitive Advantage in the Australian Context: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 311-330, January.
    22. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    23. Tian Xie, 2012. "Least Squares Model Averaging By Prediction Criterion," Working Paper 1299, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    24. Owen, P. Dorian, 2018. "Replication to assess statistical adequacy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-16.
    25. D. Kuang & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Generalized Log-Normal Chain-Ladder," Papers 1806.05939, arXiv.org.
    26. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    27. Muhammad Akhtaruzzaman & Christopher Hajzler & P. Dorian Owen, 2016. "Does institutional quality resolve the Lucas Paradox?," Working Papers 1611, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2016.
    28. P. Dorian Owen, 2015. "Evaluating ingenious instruments for fundamental determinants of long-run economic growth and development," Working Papers 1508, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2015.
    29. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
    30. Antonia Lòpez-Villavicencio & Luis Antonio Reyes Ortiz, 2018. "Is globalisation taking away jobs? An empirical assessment for advanced economies," CEPN Working Papers halshs-01895223, HAL.
    31. Clements Michael P. & Hendry David F., 2008. "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, October.
    32. D. Kuang & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Generalized Log-Normal Chain-Ladder," Economics Papers 2018-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    33. Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2017. "Ekonometryczne modelowanie i prognozowanie rozwoju polskiego sektora ICT z uwzględnieniem wskaźników makroekonomicznych," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 45, pages 259-272.
    34. Vassilios Bazinas & Bent Nielsen, 2022. "Causal Transmission in Reduced-Form Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, March.
    35. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Ceballos, Alejandro & Walke, Adam G., 2015. "Short-Term Forecasting Analysis for Municipal Water Demand," MPRA Paper 78259, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Aug 2015.
    36. Vassili Bazinas & Bent Nielsen, 2015. "Causal transmission in reduced-form models," Economics Papers 2015-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    37. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2011. "Official Dollarization As a Monetary Regime: Its Effectson El Salvador," IMF Working Papers 2011/129, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2015. "If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 2015/256, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Norden, Lars & Mesquita, Daniel & Wang, Weichao, 2021. "COVID-19, policy interventions and credit: The Brazilian experience," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).

  5. David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 2007. "The Bernoulli model, from Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach," Introductory Chapters, in: Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach, Princeton University Press.

    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "A banklevel analysis of interest rate passthrough in South Africa," Working Papers 11027, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Steven F. Lehrer & Tian Xie, 2022. "The Bigger Picture: Combining Econometrics with Analytics Improves Forecasts of Movie Success," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 189-210, January.
    3. Rahul Verma & Rajesh Mohnot, 2023. "Relative Impact of the U.S. Energy Market Sentiments on Stocks and ESG Index Returns: Evidence from GCC Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 290-300, March.
    4. Monique Reid & Gideon du Rand, 2013. "A sticky information Phillips curve for South Africa," Working Papers 22/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    5. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & José M. Mota, 2015. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2015/260, International Monetary Fund.
    6. W H Boshoff, 2012. "Gasoline, Diesel Fuel And Jet Fuel Demand In South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 43-78, April.
    7. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga & Joel Correa da Rosa, 2017. "Variable selection and forecasting via automated methods for linear models: LASSO/adaLASSO and Autometrics," Post-Print halshs-00917797, HAL.
    8. Antonia Lòpez-Villavicencio & Luis Antonio Reyes Ortiz, 2018. "Is globalisation taking away jobs? An empirical assessment for advanced economies," Working Papers halshs-01895223, HAL.
    9. Escribano, Álvaro & Guasch, J. Luis & Pena, Jorge, 2019. "Investment Climate Effects on Alternative Firm-Level Productivity Measures," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28639, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    10. Bec, Frédérique & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Nowcasting French GDP in real-time with surveys and “blocked” regressions: Combining forecasts or pooling information?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1021-1042.
    11. Mauleón, Ignacio & Hamoudi, Hamid, 2017. "Photovoltaic and wind cost decrease estimation: Implications for investment analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1054-1065.
    12. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Jonas Harnau, 2018. "Log-Normal or Over-Dispersed Poisson?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-37, July.
    14. Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "A Recursive Monte Carlo Study of Structural-Break Sensitivity of Adjustment Coefficients in Cointegrated VAR Systems," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 251-270, June.
    15. Steven Lehrer & Tian Xie, 2016. "Box Office Buzz: Does Social Media Data Steal the Show from Model Uncertainty When Forecasting for Hollywood?," NBER Working Papers 22959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Paul Plummer & Michael Taylor, 2011. "Enterprise and Competitive Advantage in the Australian Context: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 311-330, January.
    17. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Owen, P. Dorian, 2018. "Replication to assess statistical adequacy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-16.
    19. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    20. Muhammad Akhtaruzzaman & Christopher Hajzler & P. Dorian Owen, 2016. "Does institutional quality resolve the Lucas Paradox?," Working Papers 1611, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2016.
    21. P. Dorian Owen, 2015. "Evaluating ingenious instruments for fundamental determinants of long-run economic growth and development," Working Papers 1508, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2015.
    22. Antonia Lòpez-Villavicencio & Luis Antonio Reyes Ortiz, 2018. "Is globalisation taking away jobs? An empirical assessment for advanced economies," CEPN Working Papers halshs-01895223, HAL.
    23. Clements Michael P. & Hendry David F., 2008. "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, October.
    24. Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2017. "Ekonometryczne modelowanie i prognozowanie rozwoju polskiego sektora ICT z uwzględnieniem wskaźników makroekonomicznych," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 45, pages 259-272.
    25. Vassilios Bazinas & Bent Nielsen, 2022. "Causal Transmission in Reduced-Form Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, March.
    26. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Ceballos, Alejandro & Walke, Adam G., 2015. "Short-Term Forecasting Analysis for Municipal Water Demand," MPRA Paper 78259, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Aug 2015.
    27. Vassili Bazinas & Bent Nielsen, 2015. "Causal transmission in reduced-form models," Economics Papers 2015-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    28. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2011. "Official Dollarization As a Monetary Regime: Its Effectson El Salvador," IMF Working Papers 2011/129, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2015. "If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 2015/256, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Norden, Lars & Mesquita, Daniel & Wang, Weichao, 2021. "COVID-19, policy interventions and credit: The Brazilian experience," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).

  6. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2006. "Forecasting with Breaks," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 605-657, Elsevier.

    Cited by:

    1. Josef Baumgartner, 2008. "Die Preistransmission entlang der Wertschöpfungskette in Österreich für ausgewählte Produktgruppen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 33139, April.
    2. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A., 2008. "Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0814, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    4. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    5. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    6. Jari Hännikäinen, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," Working Papers 1494, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    7. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-023/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    9. Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Further Results on MSFE Encompassing," Working Papers 143, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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    3. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
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    5. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2007. "Automatic Leading Indicators (ALIs) versus Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs): Comparison of Inflation and GDP growth Forecasting," EcoMod2007 23900072, EcoMod.
    6. Meszaros, Sandor, 2008. "Theory testing (hypothesis testing) in agricultural economics," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 107, pages 1-13, March.

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    132. Lin Chan, Hing & Kam Lee, Shu, 1997. "Modelling and forecasting the demand for coal in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 271-287, July.
    133. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Books

  1. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F. (ed.), 2011. "The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195398649.

    Cited by:

    1. Katarina Juselius, 2022. "A Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario for a Monetary Model with Forward-Looking Expectations," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Demirer, Riza, 2022. "Global financial cycle and the predictability of oil market volatility: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
    4. Nikolaos Stoupos & Apostolos Kiohos, 2022. "Euro Area: Towards a European Common Bond? – Empirical Evidence from the Sovereign Debt Markets," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 1019-1046, July.
    5. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2017. "Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 127-146.
    6. Hecq, Alain & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-407.
    7. Davide Pettenuzzo & Antonio Gargano & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 75R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Jul 2016.
    8. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    9. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2012. "Modelling the impact of aggregate financial shocks external to the Chinese economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. Jack Fosten, 2016. "Model selection with factors and variables," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    11. In Choi & Jorg Breitung, 2011. "Factor models," Working Papers 1121, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy), revised Dec 2011.
    12. Hartmann, Matthias & Dovern, Jonas, 2016. "Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145925, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Ricardo Reis, 2017. "Is Something Really Wrong with Macroeconomics?," Discussion Papers 1713, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    14. Laurent Callot & Johannes Tang Kristensen, 2016. "Regularized Estimation of Structural Instability in Factor Models: The US Macroeconomy and the Great Moderation," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 437-479, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    15. Jiang, Yu & Guo, Yongji & Zhang, Yihao, 2017. "Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 132-138.
    16. Exterkate, Peter & Groenen, Patrick J.F. & Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Nonlinear forecasting with many predictors using kernel ridge regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 736-753.
    17. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2012. "Adaptive Forcasting in the Presence of Recent and Ongoing Structural Change," CAMA Working Papers 2012-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Seshadri Tirunillai & Gerard J. Tellis, 2017. "Does Offline TV Advertising Affect Online Chatter? Quasi-Experimental Analysis Using Synthetic Control," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 862-878, November.
    19. Carlos Medel, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 769, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Çakmaklı, Cem & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 650-668.
    21. Francisco Corona & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2017. "Determining the number of factors after stationary univariate transformations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 351-372, August.
    22. Tae-Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Forecasting under Structural Breaks Using Improved Weighted Estimation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202212, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    23. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2012. "Forecasting Welfare Caseloads: The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-846, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    24. Stig V. Møller & Jesper Rangvid, 2018. "Global Economic Growth and Expected Returns Around the World: The End-of-the-Year Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 573-591, February.
    25. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    27. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    28. Ruijun Bu & Rodrigo Hizmeri & Marwan Izzeldin & Anthony Murphy & Mike G. Tsionas, 2021. "The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility," Working Papers 202109, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    29. Katja Drechsel & Dr. Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
    30. Romeo Ionescu, 2012. "The Economic Recovery across the EU vs the Global Crisis," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(31), pages 30-39, May.
    31. Bialowolski, Piotr & Kuszewski, Tomasz & Witkowski, Bartosz, 2015. "Bayesian averaging vs. dynamic factor models for forecasting economic aggregates with tendency survey data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-37.
    32. Johannes Tang Kristensen, 2012. "Factor-Based Forecasting in the Presence of Outliers: Are Factors Better Selected and Estimated by the Median than by The Mean?," CREATES Research Papers 2012-28, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    33. Georgios Moratis & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2017. "Measuring the systemic importance of banks," Working Papers 240, Bank of Greece.
    34. W. Hölzl & S. Kaniovski & Y. Kaniovski, 2019. "Exploring the dynamics of business survey data using Markov models," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 621-649, October.
    35. Fritz Breuss, 2016. "Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?," WIFO Working Papers 530, WIFO.
    36. Bec, Frédérique & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Nowcasting French GDP in real-time with surveys and “blocked” regressions: Combining forecasts or pooling information?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1021-1042.
    37. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth," Staff Working Papers 17-2, Bank of Canada.
    38. S. Yanki Kalfa & Jaime Marquez, 2021. "Forecasting FOMC Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-21, September.
      • S. Yanki Kalfa & Jaime Marquez, 2018. "Forecasting FOMC Forecasts," Working Papers 2018-007, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    39. Zongwu Cai & Gunawan, 2023. "A Combination Forecast for Nonparametric Models with Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202310, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2023.
    40. Franses, Philip Hans & Legerstee, Rianne, 2013. "Do statistical forecasting models for SKU-level data benefit from including past expert knowledge?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-87.
    41. Jones, A. & Lomas, J. & Rice, N., 2014. "Going Beyond the Mean in Healthcare Cost Regressions: a Comparison of Methods for Estimating the Full Conditional Distribution," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 14/26, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    42. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    43. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Rangan Gupta & Juncal Cunado & Xin Sheng, 2019. "Testing the White Noise Hypothesis in High-Frequency Housing Returns of the United States," Working Papers 201952, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    44. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Common drifting volatility in large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers (Old Series) 1206, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    45. Buchmueller, Thomas C. & Johar, Meliyanni, 2015. "Obesity and health expenditures: Evidence from Australia," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 42-58.
    46. Francisco Corona & Graciela González-Farías & Pedro Orraca, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for the Mexican economy: are common trends useful when predicting economic activity?," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 26(1), pages 1-35, December.
    47. Michael Clements, 2017. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-03, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    48. Jones, A & Lomas, J & Rice, N, 2011. "Applying Beta-type Size Distributions to Healthcare Cost Regressions," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/31, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    49. Erhan Uluceviz & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Measuring Real-Financial Connectedness in the U.S. Economy," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1812, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    50. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    51. Jose M. Carabias, 2018. "The real-time information content of macroeconomic news: implications for firm-level earnings expectations," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 136-166, March.
    52. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for predicting government bond yields," Papers 2102.13393, arXiv.org.
    53. Yuanyuan Gu & Sonia García-Pérez & John Massie & Kees Gool, 2015. "Cost of care for cystic fibrosis: an investigation of cost determinants using national registry data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(7), pages 709-717, September.
    54. Mundt, Philipp & Alfarano, Simone & Milaković, Mishael, 2019. "Exploiting ergodicity in forecasts of corporate profitability," BERG Working Paper Series 147, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    55. Johannes Tang Kristensen, 2013. "Diffusion Indexes with Sparse Loadings," CREATES Research Papers 2013-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    56. Robert Adamek & Stephan Smeekes & Ines Wilms, 2020. "Lasso Inference for High-Dimensional Time Series," Papers 2007.10952, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    57. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    58. Elena Andreou & Constantinos Kourouyiannis & Andros Kourtellos, 2012. "Volatility Forecast Combinations using Asymmetric Loss Functions," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 07-2012, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    59. Pablo Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: a Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 677, Central Bank of Chile.
    60. Scott A. Brave & R. Andrew Butters & David Kelley, 2019. "A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 1, pages 1-30.
    61. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2020. "Global vs Sectoral Factors and the Impact of the Financialization in Commodity Price Changes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 859-879, September.
    62. Erhan Uluceviz & Kamil Yilmaz, 2020. "Real-financial connectedness in the Swiss economy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-20, December.
    63. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    64. Kenneth W Clements & Grace Gao, 2013. "A Multi-Market Approach to Measuring the Cycle," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-16, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    65. Jin, Sainan & Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2017. "Robust Forecast Comparison," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(6), pages 1306-1351, December.
    66. Shahnaz Parsaeian, 2023. "Structural Breaks in Seemingly Unrelated Regression Models," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202308, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    67. Chen, Peng, 2015. "Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 284-294.
    68. Johanna Posch & Fabio Rumler, 2015. "Semi‐Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 145-162, March.
    69. Peter Exterkate, 2012. "Model Selection in Kernel Ridge Regression," CREATES Research Papers 2012-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    70. Silvija Vlah Jerić & Mihovil Anđelinović, 2019. "Evaluating Croatian stock index forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1325-1339, April.
    71. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    72. Hendry, David F. & Johansen, Søren, 2015. "Model Discovery And Trygve Haavelmo’S Legacy," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 93-114, February.
    73. Cláudia Duarte, 2014. "Autoregressive augmentation of MIDAS regressions," Working Papers w201401, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    74. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Stock return distribution and predictability: Evidence from over a century of daily data on the DJIA index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-25.
    75. Heather Anderson & Howard Chan & Robert Faff & Yew Kee Ho, 2012. "Reported earnings and analyst forecasts as competing sources of information: A new approach," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(3), pages 333-359, December.
    76. Luciani, Matteo & Pundit, Madhavi & Ramayandi, Arief & Veronese , Giovanni, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 471, Asian Development Bank.
    77. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Is the Housing Market in the United States Really Weakly-Efficient?," Working Papers 201934, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    78. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Papers 2013-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    79. Hugh Gravelle & Mark Dusheiko & Steve Martin & Pete Smith & Nigel Rice & Jennifer Dixon, 2011. "Modelling Individual Patient Hospital Expenditure for General Practice Budgets," Working Papers 073cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    80. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    81. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2015. "Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: the Indicator Saturation Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113137, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    82. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
    83. Maurizio Bovi, 2016. "The tale of two expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2677-2705, November.
    84. Byun, Suk Joon & Cho, Hangjun, 2013. "Forecasting carbon futures volatility using GARCH models with energy volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 207-221.
    85. Minxian Yang, 2017. "Effects of idiosyncratic shocks on macroeconomic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1441-1461, December.
    86. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    87. Fischer, Manfred M. & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for modeling government bond yields," Working Papers in Regional Science 2021/01, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    88. Kőrösi, Gábor, 2016. "A lány továbbra is szolgál.. [Modelling and econometrics]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 647-667.
    89. Jorge Caiado & Nuno Crato & Pilar Poncela, 2020. "A fragmented-periodogram approach for clustering big data time series," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 14(1), pages 117-146, March.
    90. Gianluca De Nard & Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2018. "Factor models for portfolio selection in large dimensions: the good, the better and the ugly," ECON - Working Papers 290, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Dec 2018.
    91. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    92. Meriküll, Jaanika & Eamets, Raul & Humal, Katrin & Espenberg, Kerly, 2012. "Power without manpower: Forecasting labour demand for Estonian energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 740-750.
    93. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    94. Jack Fosten, 2016. "Forecast evaluation with factor-augmented models," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-05, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    95. Giampiero M. Gallo, 2017. "Hendry, David F. and Doornik, Jurgen A.: Empirical model discovery and theory evaluation: automatic selection methods in econometrics," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 120(3), pages 279-281, April.
    96. Matthew Franklin & James Lomas & Simon Walker & Tracey Young, 2019. "An Educational Review About Using Cost Data for the Purpose of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 37(5), pages 631-643, May.
    97. Sriubaite, I. & Harris, A. & Jones, A.M. & Gabbe, B., 2020. "Economic Consequences of Road Traffic Injuries. Application of the Super Learner algorithm," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 20/20, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    98. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kweku Kyei & Rinsuna Shivambu, 2020. "Uncertainty and Daily Predictability of Housing Returns and Volatility of the United States: Evidence from a Higher-Order Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers 202071, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    99. Reto Cueni & Bruno S. Frey, 2014. "Forecasts and Reactivity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2014-10, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    100. Asger Lunde & Kasper V. Olesen, 2014. "Modeling and Forecasting the Distribution of Energy Forward Returns - Evidence from the Nordic Power Exchange," CREATES Research Papers 2013-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    101. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    102. Till Weigt & Bernd Wilfling, 2021. "An approach to increasing forecast‐combination accuracy through VAR error modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 686-699, July.
    103. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 698-714.
    104. Castle, Jennifer L. & Kurita, Takamitsu, 2021. "A dynamic econometric analysis of the dollar-pound exchange rate in an era of structural breaks and policy regime shifts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    105. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2021. "Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    106. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2020. "A replication of "A quasi-maximum likelihood approach for large, approximate dynamic factor models" (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012)," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-14.
    107. Fardoust, Shahrokh & Dhareshwar, Ashok, 2013. "Some thoughts on making long-term forecasts for the world economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6705, The World Bank.
    108. Kock, Anders Bredahl & Callot, Laurent, 2015. "Oracle inequalities for high dimensional vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 325-344.
    109. Muellbauer, John, 2018. "The Future of Macroeconomics," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    110. Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
    111. Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco, 2013. "Factor models in high-dimensional time series—A time-domain approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2678-2695.
    112. Alain Kabundi & Asithandile Mbelu, 2021. "Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1817-1844, April.
    113. Sungchul Park & Anirban Basu, 2018. "Alternative evaluation metrics for risk adjustment methods," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 984-1010, June.
    114. Bhattarai, Keshab & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Yang, Bo, 2021. "Are global spillovers complementary or competitive? Need for international policy coordination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    115. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Forecast Uncertainty- Ex Ante and Ex Post : U.S. Inflation and Output Growth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 206-216, April.
    116. Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models in gretl. The DFM package," gretl working papers 7, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    117. Yuxuan Huang, 2016. "Forecasting the USD/CNY Exchange Rate under Different Policy Regimes," Working Papers 2016-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    118. Schanne, Norbert, 2015. "A Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model for regional labour markets and its forecasting performance with leading indicators in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 201513, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    119. María del Pilar Cruz N. & Hugo Peralta V. & Juan Pablo Cova M., 2022. "Utilización de noticias de prensa como indicador de confianza económica en tiempo real," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 938, Central Bank of Chile.
    120. Götz, Thomas B. & Hauzenberger, Klemens, 2018. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," Discussion Papers 40/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    121. Eduard Baitinger & Christian Fieberg & Thorsten Poddig & Armin Varmaz, 2015. "Liquidity-driven approach to dynamic asset allocation: evidence from the German stock market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 29(4), pages 365-379, November.
    122. Matías Brum & Mauricio de Rosa, 2020. "Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    123. Stoupos, Nikolaos & Nikas, Christos & Kiohos, Apostolos, 2023. "Turkey: From a thriving economic past towards a rugged future? - An empirical analysis on the Turkish financial markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    124. Boonman, Tjeerd M. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    125. Paolo Fornaro & Henri Luomaranta, 2020. "Nowcasting Finnish real economic activity: a machine learning approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 55-71, January.
    126. Jongsay Yong & Ou Yang, 2021. "Does socioeconomic status affect hospital utilization and health outcomes of chronic disease patients?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(2), pages 329-339, March.
    127. Urasawa, Satoshi, 2014. "Real-time GDP forecasting for Japan: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 116-134.
    128. Eicher, Theo S. & Rollinson, Yuan Gao, 2023. "The accuracy of IMF crises nowcasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 431-449.

  2. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson (ed.), 2003. "Understanding Economic Forecasts," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582422, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Katarina Juselius, 2022. "A Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario for a Monetary Model with Forward-Looking Expectations," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, April.
    2. J. M. Kargbo, 2007. "Forecasting agricultural exports and imports in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2069-2084.
    3. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    4. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.
    6. Goodwin, Paul & Önkal, Dilek & Thomson, Mary, 2010. "Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 195-201, August.
    7. Döhrn, Roland, 2010. "Konjunkturprognosen in bewegten Zeiten: Die Kunst des Unmöglichen?," RWI Materialien 62, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    8. Alexander HARIN, 2014. "Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 2(2), pages 69-79.
    9. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "A recession‐and‐state forecasting model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(4), pages 1025-1039, April.
    10. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "Market‐timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 55-64, September.
    11. Araz Taeihagh, 2017. "Crowdsourcing: a new tool for policy-making?," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 50(4), pages 629-647, December.

  3. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Staff Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
    2. Corielli, Francesco & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Factor based index tracking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2215-2233, August.
    3. Håvard Hungnes, 2001. "Estimating and Restricting Growth Rates and Cointegration Means With Applications to Consumption and Money Demand," Discussion Papers 309, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    4. Guillaume Chevillon, 2006. "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 257, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Camille Logeay & Sven Schreiber, 2006. "Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(17), pages 2053-2068.
    6. Arranz, Miguel A. & Escribano, Álvaro, 1998. "Bootstraping cointegration tests under structural co-breaks: a robust extended ECM test," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 4552, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. J James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2010. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Discussion Papers 10-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    8. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-023/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Geir E. Alstad, 2010. "The long-run exchange rate for NOK: a BEER approach," Working Paper 2010/19, Norges Bank.
    10. Sørensen, Nils Karl, 2002. "Modelling and seasonal forecasting of monthly hotel nights in Denmark," ERSA conference papers ersa02p114, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Qayyum, Abdul & Bilquees, Faiz, 2005. "P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2058, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
    12. D. Kuang & B. Nielsen & J. P. Nielsen, 2008. "Forecasting with the age-period-cohort model and the extended chain-ladder model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(4), pages 987-991.
    13. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    14. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    15. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    16. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0602, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Garrouste, Christelle, 2011. "Towards a benchmark on the contribution of education and training to employability: methodological note," MPRA Paper 37153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2008. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/17, European University Institute.
    19. Duncan, Roberto & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2019. "New perspectives on forecasting inflation in emerging market economies: An empirical assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1008-1031.
    20. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 185-213.
    22. David Hendry & Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    23. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2000. "Wages, Prices, Productivity, Inflation and Unemployment in Italy 1970-1994," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0911, Econometric Society.
    24. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0331, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    25. Pinto, Jeronymo Marcondes & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2019. "Cross-validation based forecasting method: a machine learning approach," Textos para discussão 498, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    26. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1397, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    27. David F. Hendry, 2002. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation and the Lucas Critique," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 21-40.
    28. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi‐Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, September.
    29. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Jennifer L. Castle, 2022. "Machine Learning Dynamic Switching Approach to Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 129-157, July.
    30. J. M. Kargbo, 2007. "Forecasting agricultural exports and imports in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2069-2084.
    31. Fernald, John, 2006. "Trend Breaks, Long-Run Restrictions and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Improvements," CEPR Discussion Papers 5631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Banerjee, Anindya & Masten, Igor, 2005. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new member states of the European Union," Working Paper Series 482, European Central Bank.
    33. da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira, 2005. "Is there too much certainty when measuring uncertainty," MPRA Paper 16383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    35. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
    37. Davide Ciferri & Maria Chiara D’Errico & Paolo Polinori, 2020. "Integration and convergence in European electricity markets," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(2), pages 463-492, July.
    38. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    39. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett, 2008. "Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 408, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    40. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior Elicitation in Multiple Change-point Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/26, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    41. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
    42. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2002. "Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 117-135, March.
    43. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2011. "Are The Baltic Countries Ready To Adopt The Euro? A Generalized Purchasing Power Parity Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(3), pages 429-454, June.
    44. Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low, 2006. "Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 247-281, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    45. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    46. Eitrheim,O. & Jansen,E.S. & Nymoen,R., 2000. "Progress from forecast failure : the Norwegian consumption function," Memorandum 32/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    47. Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Instability and non-linearity in the EMU," Working Papers 211, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    48. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    49. Daniele Antonucci & Alessandro Girardi, 2005. "Structural changes and deviations from the PPP within the Euro Area," ISAE Working Papers 57, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    50. Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5jk0j5jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    51. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Martha Alicia Misas Arango, 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 3244, Banco de la Republica.
    52. Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2007. "Macro Dynamics in a Model with Uncertainty," Working Papers (-2012) 0704, University of Bergamo, Department of Economics.
    53. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2004. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables for the Acceding Countries," Working Papers 260, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    54. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2000. "Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 1302, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 29 Jan 2002.
    55. Alasdair Scott & George Kapetanios & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Making a match: combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modelling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 462, Society for Computational Economics.
    56. Marc Wildi & Bernd Schips, 2004. "Signal Extraction: How (In)efficient Are Model-Based Approaches? An Empirical Study Based on TRAMO/SEATS and Census X-12-ARIMA," KOF Working papers 04-96, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    57. Costas Anyfantakis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 2008. "Parameter instability and forecasting performance: a Monte Carlo study," International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20.
    58. Steven Cook, 2005. "On the semantic approach to econometric methodology," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 117-123.
    59. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2008. "Optimizing Time-series Forecasts for Inflation and Interest Rates Using Simulation and Model Averaging," Economics Series 231, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    60. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    61. Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2009. "Realising the future: forecasting with high frequency based volatility (HEAVY) models," Economics Papers 2009-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    62. Robert A. Yaffee, 2010. "Forecast evaluation with Stata," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2010 10, Stata Users Group.
    63. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    64. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    65. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2005. "Leading Indicators for Euro‐area Inflation and GDP Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 785-813, December.
    66. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2002. "A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 233-254.
    67. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Michael ARTIS & Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2001. "Factor Forecasts for the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/15, European University Institute.
    69. Fichtner, Ferdinand & Rüffer, Rasmus & Schnatz, Bernd, 2009. "Leading indicators in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 1125, European Central Bank.
    70. Alaa El-Shazly, 2011. "Designing an early warning system for currency crises: an empirical treatment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(14), pages 1817-1828.
    71. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    72. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
    73. David Hendry & Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Model Identification and Non-unique Structure," Economics Papers 2002-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    74. Pesaran, M.H. & Assenmacher-Wesche, K., 2007. "Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX* model for Switzerland: an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0746, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    75. Roberto Ricciuti, 2008. "The quest for a fiscal rule: Italy, 1861–1998," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 2(3), pages 259-274, October.
    76. Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-point Models with an Unknown Number of Change-points," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/31, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    77. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A. & Michaux, E., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France," Working papers 101, Banque de France.
    78. Anders Bredahl Kock & Timo Teräsvirta, 2010. "Forecasting with nonlinear time series models," CREATES Research Papers 2010-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    79. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.
    80. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank.
    81. R. Velazquez & Noriega & A., 2004. "International evidence on monetary neutrality under broken trend stationary models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 282, Society for Computational Economics.
    82. Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Luiz Ivan de Melo Castelar, 2005. "Forecasting Quarterly Brazilian Gdp Growth Rate With Linear And Nonlinear Diffusion Index Models," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    83. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    84. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2006. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Working Paper Series 196, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    85. David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2002. "Unit roots and double smooth transitions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 675-683.
    86. Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    87. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-151.
    88. John Muellbauer & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumer credit conditions in the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 70, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    89. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2011. "Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 239-250.
    90. Lars-Erik Öller & Lasse Koskinen, 2004. "A classifying procedure for signalling turning points," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 197-214.
    91. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society.
    92. Christian Ragacs & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Why did we fail to predict GDP during the last cycle? A breakdown of forecast errors for Austria," Working Papers 151, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    93. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    94. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 314, Bank of England.
    95. Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & A. Stan Hurn, 2001. "Testing for Time Dependence in Parameters," Research Paper Series 58, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    96. Böckers, Veit & Heimeshoff,Ulrich & Müller, Andrea, 2012. "Pull-forward effects in the German car scrappage scheme: A time series approach," DICE Discussion Papers 56, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    97. Tena Horrillo, Juan de Dios & Espasa, Antoni & Pino, Gabriel, 2008. "Forecasting Spanish inflation using information from different sectors and geographical areas," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws080101, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    98. Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2007. "Endogenous Cycles, Debt and Monetary Policy," Working Papers (-2012) 0703, University of Bergamo, Department of Economics.
    99. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    100. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, 2004. "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    101. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 598, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 29 Dec 2005.
    102. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    103. Victor Bystrov, 2006. "Forecasting Emerging Market Indicators: Brazil and Russia," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/12, European University Institute.
    104. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    105. David F. Hendry, 2004. "Robustifying Forecasts from Equilibrium-Correction Models," Economics Papers 2004-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    106. Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Evaluating a Central Bank’s Recent Forecast Failure," Memorandum 22/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    107. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    108. Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "A Comparison of Multi-step GDP Forecasts for South Africa," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    109. Christelle Garrouste, 2011. "Towards a Benchmark on the Contribution of Education and Training to Employability: Methodological Note. EUR 24616 EN," Working Papers hal-03245317, HAL.
    110. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Héctor M. Núñez Amortegui, 2004. "Combinación de pronósticos de la inflación en presencia de cambios estructurales," Borradores de Economia 2153, Banco de la Republica.
    111. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Staff Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
    112. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Small-system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 359-370.
    113. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2019. "Assessing the accuracy of electricity production forecasts in developing countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1175-1185.
    114. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2005. "Euro Area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," ISAE Working Papers 60, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    115. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2008. "Immigrant remittance flows and aggregate demand forecasts in West African economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 377-380.
    116. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    117. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    118. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2005. "Forecasting Aggregate Demand in West African Economies. The Influence of Immigrant Remittance Flows and of Asymmetric Error Correction," Economics Series 168, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    119. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2007. "Econometric Analysis with Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/11, European University Institute.
    120. Domenico Sartore & Lucia Trevisan & Michele Trova & Francesca Volo, 2002. "US dollar/Euro exchange rate: a monthly econometric model for forecasting," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 480-501.
    121. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    122. Espasa, Antoni & Albacete, Rebeca, 2004. "Considerations on economic forecasting: method developed in the bulletin of EU and US inflation and macroeconomic analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws045013, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    123. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2023. "An artificial intelligence approach to forecasting when there are structural breaks: a reinforcement learning-based framework for fast switching," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1729-1759, October.
    124. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    125. Naser, Hanan, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A data rich model using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-87.
    126. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    127. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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  4. Barnett,William A. & Hendry,David F. & Hylleberg,Svend & Teräsvirta,Timo & Tjøstheim,Dag & Würtz, (ed.), 2000. "Nonlinear Econometric Modeling in Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521594240.

    Cited by:

    1. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    2. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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    5. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
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    1. Barigozzi, Matteo & Alessi, Lucia & Capasso, Marco & Fagiolo, Giorgio, 2009. "The distribution of households consumption-expenditure budget shares," Working Paper Series 1061, European Central Bank.
    2. Miyazaki, Tomomi & Sato, Motohiro, 2022. "Property tax and farmland use in urban areas: Evidence from the reform in the early 1990s in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2015. "Regional effects of federal tax shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(2), pages 343-360, October.
    4. Mariola Pilatowska, 2008. "The Econometric Models Satisfying the Congruence Postulate – an Overview," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 8, pages 53-60.
    5. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2013. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Working Papers 2013_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2011. "Political Leaders’ Socioeconomic Background and Fiscal Performance in Germany," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201141, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Ronelle Burger, & Stan du Plessis, 2006. "Examining the Robustness of Competing Explanations of Slow Growth in African Countries," Discussion Papers 06/02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    8. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2016. "Political Leaders' Socioeconomic Background and Public Budget Deficits: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 55-78, March.
    9. Stavros A. DRAKOPOULOS, 2016. "Economic crisis, economic methodology and the scientific ideal of physics," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 28-57, November.
    10. Tobias Caris & Bernd Hayo, 2012. "Female Labour Force Participation in Arab Countries: The Role of Identity," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201241, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2009. "Federal Reserve Communications and Emerging Equity Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200923, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Branimir Jovanovic & Biljana Jovanovic, 2018. "Ease of doing business and FDI in the ex-socialist countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 587-627, July.
    13. Emmanuel Flachaire & Gilles Hacheme & Sullivan Hu'e & S'ebastien Laurent, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable Machine Learning," Papers 2203.11691, arXiv.org.
    14. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Does the currency board matter? US news and Argentine financial market reaction," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 4034-4040, October.
    15. Liyan Yu & Jerker Nilsson, 2018. "Social capital and the financing performance of farmer cooperatives in Fujian Province, China," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 847-864, October.
    16. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "A biannual recession-forecasting model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-393.
    17. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting the dollar-pound exchange rate in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 866, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Zhang, Qian & Sun, Zhongxiao & Huang, Wei, 2018. "Does land perform well for corn planting? An empirical study on land use efficiency in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 273-280.
    20. Bor, Jacob, 2007. "The political economy of AIDS leadership in developing countries: An exploratory analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(8), pages 1585-1599, April.
    21. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    22. Guido W. Imbens, 2022. "Causality in Econometrics: Choice vs Chance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(6), pages 2541-2566, November.
    23. Matteo Barigozzi & Lucia Alessi & Marco Capasso & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2008. "The Distribution of Consumption-Expenditure Budget Shares. Evidence from Italian Households," LEM Papers Series 2008/18, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    24. Daniel Berkowitz & David N. DeJong, 2005. "Entrepreneurship and Post‐socialist Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(1), pages 25-46, February.
    25. Asad Zaman, 2010. "Causal Relations via Econometrics," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 2(1), pages 36-56, April.
    26. Sheetal K. Chand, 2004. "Macroeconomics - Which Way Now? Old versus New Styles," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 30, pages 11-26.
    27. Hayo Bernd & Caris Tobias, 2013. "Female Labour Force Participation in the MENA Region: The Role of Identity," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 271-292, December.
    28. Ye, Haichun & Ashley, Richard & Guerard, John, 2015. "Comparing the effectiveness of traditional vs. mechanized identification methods in post-sample forecasting for a macroeconomic Granger causality analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 488-500.
    29. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    30. Aggarwal, Raj & Kearney, Colm & Lucey, Brian, 2012. "Gravity and culture in foreign portfolio investment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 525-538.
    31. Sullivan Hué, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable machine learning," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 19, Stata Users Group.
    32. Bartkus Algirdas, 2017. "The Impact of Taxes on the Consumption to Income Ratio," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 96(2), pages 7-27, February.
    33. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2004. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Papers 2004-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    34. Huang, Xiaoqi & Liu, Wei & Zhang, Zhan & Zou, Xinyu & Li, Pujuan, 2023. "Quantity or quality: Environmental legislation and corporate green innovations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PB).
    35. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.
    36. Carmen Altenkirch, 2005. "The Determinants Of Sovereign Credit Ratings: A New Empirical Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(3), pages 462-473, September.
    37. Christine O. Strong, 2022. "Do commodity price shocks impact central bank governors' removals? Evidence from Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1443-1460, January.
    38. Md. Bokhtiar Hasan & SM Nahidul Islam & Abu N. M. Wahid, 2018. "The effect of macroeconomic variables on the performance of non-life insurance companies in Bangladesh," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 369-383, December.
    39. Huang, Wei & Bruemmer, Bernhard & Huntsinger, Lynn, 2016. "Incorporating measures of grassland productivity into efficiency estimates for livestock grazing on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-11.
    40. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Political budget cycles in military expenditures: A meta-analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1083-1102.
    41. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "Market‐timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 55-64, September.
    42. Tupac Panigo, Demian & Chena, Pablo Ignacio, 2012. "Regulationist Macro-Models for Developing Countries. An Application to the Argentine New Development Pattern," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 11.

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    1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Brandon J. Bates & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, "undated". "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Working Paper 84631, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    4. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
    5. David Rapach & Jack Strauss, 2010. "Bagging or Combining (or Both)? An Analysis Based on Forecasting U.S. Employment Growth," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 511-533.
    6. Hoffmann, Sandra A. & Krupnick, Alan J. & Adamowicz, Wiktor L., 2005. "Economic Uncertainties in Valuing Reductions in Children's Environmental Health Risks," Discussion Papers 10722, Resources for the Future.
    7. Camille Logeay & Sven Schreiber, 2006. "Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(17), pages 2053-2068.
    8. Borbély, Dóra & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2003. "Macroeconomic interval forecasting: the case of assessing the risk of deflation in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1153, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Favero, Carlo A. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Corsi, Fulvio & Kretschmer, Uta & Mittnik, Stefan & Pigorsch, Christian, 2005. "The volatility of realized volatility," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/33, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    11. Jari Hännikäinen, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," Working Papers 1494, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    12. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Ralf Becker & Adam Clements, 2007. "Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?," NCER Working Paper Series 17, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    14. Goodness C. Aye & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2013. "Forecasting the US Real Private Residential Fixed Investment Using Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201348, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. João Henrique Gonçalves Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2018. "Uncertainty And Density Forecasts Of Arma Models: Comparison Of Asymptotic, Bayesian, And Bootstrap Procedures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 388-419, April.
    16. Troy Matheson & James Mitchell & Brian Silverstone, 2007. "Nowcasting and predicting data revisions in real time using qualitative panel survey data," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    17. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Coen Pretorius, 2004. "A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price," Development and Comp Systems 0409054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    19. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    20. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
    21. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Trapero, Juan R. & Barrow, Devon K., 2020. "Optimising forecasting models for inventory planning," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    22. Surette, Ray & Applegate, Brandon & McCarthy, Bernard & Jablonski, Patrick, 2006. "Self-destructing prophecies: Long-term forecasting of municipal correctional bed need," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 57-72.
    23. Qayyum, Abdul & Bilquees, Faiz, 2005. "P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2058, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
    24. Martha Starr, 2012. "Contributions of Economists to the Housing-Price Bubble," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 143-172.
    25. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics.
    26. Shea, Paul, 2015. "Red herrings and revelations: does learning about a new variable worsen forecasts?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 395-406.
    27. Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Hecq, Alain & Issler, João Victor & Saraiva, Diogo Vinícius Menezes, 2013. "Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 742, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
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    44. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
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    47. Pär Österholm, 2006. "Incorporating judgement in fan charts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    48. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production with Automated Procedures," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 177, Econometric Society.
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    60. Viviana Fernández, 2006. "Forecasting crude oil and natural gas spot prices by classification methods," Documentos de Trabajo 229, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    61. Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Detecting and predicting forecast breakdowns," Working Paper Series 638, European Central Bank.
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