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Forecasting Industry-Level CPI and PPI Inflation: Does Exchange Rate Pass-Through Matter?

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Author Info
Dimitrios D. Thomakos
Prasad S. Bhattacharya

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Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether industry-level forecasts of CPI and PPI inflation can be improved using the ``exchange rate pass-through" effect, that is, when one accounts for the variability of the exchange rate and import prices. An exchange rate depreciation leading to a higher level of pass-through to import prices implies greater expenditure switching, which should be manifested, possibly with a lag, in both producer and consumer prices. We build a forecasting model based on a two or three equation system involving CPI and PPI inflation where the effects of the exchange rate and import prices are taken into account. This setup also incorporates their dynamics, lagged correlations and appropriate restrictions suggested by the theory. We compare the performance of this model with a variety of unrestricted univariate and multivariate time series models, as well as with a model that, in addition, includes standard control variables for inflation, like interest rates and unemployment. Our results indicate that improvements on the forecast accuracy can be effected when one takes into account the possible pass-through effects of exchange rates and import prices on CPI and PPI inflation.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 293.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:293

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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting; Vector Autoregression; Non-linear Models; Inflation; Exchange Rates; Pass-Through Effect;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Kim, Ki-Ho, 1998. "US Inflation and the Dollar Exchange Rate: A Vector Error Correction Model," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 613-19, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Pecchenino, R. A., 1992. "Commodity prices and the CPI: Cointegration, information, and signal extraction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 493-500, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Maurice Obstfeld, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1000, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
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  6. Evan F. Koenig, 1998. "What's new about the new economy? : some lessons from the current expansion," The Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 7-11. [Downloadable!]
  7. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Bruce Hansen, 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 1997. "Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 439-461, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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