IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v171y2019icp1000-1008.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy subsidy and oil price fluctuation, and price behavior in Malaysia:A time series analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan
  • Puah, Chin-Hong
  • Lean, Hooi Hooi

Abstract

Balancing between favorable energy subsidy and the financial burden of government is crucial for policymakers. This article intends to advance this thinking by informing policymakers about how price reacts to changes in the international oil price and energy subsidy program. Hence, it is essential to investigate the empirical evidence concerning the relationship between the international oil price and energy subsidy, and price behavior. This study used time series data covering the period 1981–2015 to explore the price behavior on energy subsidy rationalization and oil price fluctuation in Malaysia. To prepare concrete empirical evidence, we employed the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) approach to capture the long-run dynamic behavior. Our findings indicated that both factors, oil price and energy subsidy, are significant in influencing the pattern of price behavior. The PPI (Producer Price Index) was more sensitive to changes in the oil price than the CPI (Consumer Price Index). The PPI was found to be affected more while the CPI was less affected. We call on policymakers to provide the Malaysian economic system with a productive social safety net to offset the negative impact caused by energy subsidy reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Puah, Chin-Hong & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2019. "Energy subsidy and oil price fluctuation, and price behavior in Malaysia:A time series analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1000-1008.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:171:y:2019:i:c:p:1000-1008
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.01.078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219300805
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2019.01.078?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
    3. Lin, Boqiang & Jiang, Zhujun, 2011. "Estimates of energy subsidies in China and impact of energy subsidy reform," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 273-283, March.
    4. Gao, Liping & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Saba, Richard, 2014. "How do oil price shocks affect consumer prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 313-323.
    5. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Pires Manso, José Ramos, 2014. "The linkage between crude oil consumption and economic growth in Latin America: The panel framework investigations for multiple regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-241.
    6. Sarwar, Suleman & Chen, Wei & Waheed, Rida, 2017. "Electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 9-18.
    7. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2011. "Determinants Of Inflation In Gcc," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 141-158.
    8. Bhattacharya, Prasad S. & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2008. "Forecasting industry-level CPI and PPI inflation: Does exchange rate pass-through matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 134-150.
    9. Jiang, Zhujun & Tan, Jijun, 2013. "How the removal of energy subsidy affects general price in China: A study based on input–output model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 599-606.
    10. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    11. Plante, Michael, 2014. "The long-run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 129-143.
    12. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    13. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2010. "Multivariate Granger causality between electricity generation, exports, prices and GDP in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3640-3648.
    14. Du, Limin & Yanan, He & Wei, Chu, 2010. "The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4142-4151, August.
    15. Halicioglu, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2018. "Output, renewable and non-renewable energy production, and international trade: Evidence from EU-15 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 995-1002.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. Bon-Gang Hwang & Yessy Ong, 2013. "The impact of oil price fluctuation on the Singapore construction industry," International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 265-278.
    18. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sarwar, Suleman & Chen, Wei & Malik, Muhammad Nasir, 2017. "Dynamics of electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 256-270.
    19. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    20. Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2010. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 3-14, September.
    21. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    22. T.O. Akinbobola, 2012. "The dynamics of money supply, exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(4), pages 1-8.
    23. Mallick, Hrushikesh & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sahoo, Manoranjan, 2018. "Is crude oil price detrimental to domestic private investment for an emerging economy? The role of public sector investment and financial sector development in an era of globalization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 307-324.
    24. Jiang, Zhujun & Lin, Boqiang, 2014. "The perverse fossil fuel subsidies in China—The scale and effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 411-419.
    25. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2017. "Energy subsidies, public investment and endogenous growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 693-709.
    26. Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2018. "Growth and unemployment: Short-run and long-run tradeoffs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 172-189.
    27. Sek, Siok Kun, 2017. "Impact of oil price changes on domestic price inflation at disaggregated levels: Evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 204-217.
    28. Liu, Wei & Li, Hong, 2011. "Improving energy consumption structure: A comprehensive assessment of fossil energy subsidies reform in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4134-4143, July.
    29. Solaymani, Saeed & Kari, Fatimah, 2014. "Impacts of energy subsidy reform on the Malaysian economy and transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 115-125.
    30. Nora Yusma Bte Mohamed Yusoff & Hussain Ali Bekhet, 2016. "Impacts of Energy Subsidy Reforms on the Industrial Energy Structures in the Malaysian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 88-97.
    31. Mr. David Coady & Mr. Javier Arze del Granado, 2010. "The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/202, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Davood Manzoor & Asghar Shahmoradi & Iman Haqiqi, 2012. "An analysis of energy price reform: a CGE approach," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(1), pages 35-54, March.
    33. Vu, Tuan Khai & Nakata, Hayato, 2018. "Oil price fluctuations and the small open economies of Southeast Asia: An analysis using vector autoregression with block exogeneity," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-21.
    34. Iwayemi, Akin & Fowowe, Babajide, 2011. "Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 603-612, February.
    35. Moghaddam, Hussein & Wirl, Franz, 2018. "Determinants of oil price subsidies in oil and gas exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 409-420.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    2. Edouard Mien, 2022. "Impact of Oil Price and Oil Production on Inflation in the CEMAC," Post-Print hal-03790291, HAL.
    3. Daneshzand, Farzaneh & Asali, Mehdi & Al-Sobhi, Saad A. & Diabat, Ali & Elkamel, Ali, 2022. "A simulation-based optimization scheme for phase-out of natural gas subsidies considering welfare and economic measures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    4. Evans, Olaniyi & Nwaogwugwu, Isaac & Vincent, Olusegun & Wale-Awe, Olawale & Mesagan, Ekundayo & Ojapinwa, Taiwo, 2023. "The socio-economics of the 2023 fuel subsidy removal in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 118360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tersoo Shimonkabir Shitile & Nuruddeen Usman, 2020. "Disaggregated Inflation and Asymmetric Oil Price Pass-Through in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 255-264.
    6. Alireza Ghadertootoonchi & Maryam Fani & Masoume Bararzadeh, 2020. "The effect of energy subsidies on the sustainability of economy, society and environment: A case study of Iran," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2020(2), pages 93-129.
    7. Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2022. "Renewable and non-renewable electricity-growth nexus in Asia: The role of private power plants and oil price threshold effect," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. İbrahim Özmen & Şerife Özşahin, 2023. "Effects of global energy and price fluctuations on Turkey's inflation: new evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2695-2728, August.
    9. Leila Ben Salem & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2024. "On the Impact of Oil Prices on Sectoral Inflation: Evidence from World’s Top Oil Exporters and Importers," CESifo Working Paper Series 10879, CESifo.
    10. Pradeep, Siddhartha, 2022. "Impact of diesel price reforms on asymmetricity of oil price pass-through to inflation: Indian perspective," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    11. Mien, Edouard, 2022. "Impact of oil price and oil production on inflation in the CEMAC," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2021. "Asymmetric impact of oil price and exchange rate on disaggregation price inflation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Puah, Chin-Hong & Affizzah, A.M. Dyg, 2023. "Energy subsidy reform and energy sustainability in Malaysia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 913-927.
    4. Hong Thai Le & Marta Disegna, 2018. "Responses of macroeconomy and stock markets to structural oil price shocks: New evidence from Asian oil refinery," BAFES Working Papers BAFES25, Department of Accounting, Finance & Economic, Bournemouth University.
    5. Sarwar, Muhammad Nadeem & Hussain, Hamid & Maqbool, Muhammad Bilal, 2020. "Pass through effects of oil price on food and non-food prices in Pakistan: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Özgür Özaydın, 2019. "Energy Prices-Inflation Nexus: A Historical Analysis for the Case of Ottoman Empire," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(4), pages 86-93, 04-2019.
    7. KILICARSLAN Zerrin & DUMRUL Yasemin, 2017. "Macroeconomic Impacts Of Oil Price Shocks: An Empirical Analysis Based On The Svar Models," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 69(5), pages 55-72, December.
    8. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    9. Saeed Solaymani, 2016. "Impacts of energy subsidy reform on poverty and income inequality in Malaysia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2707-2723, November.
    10. Halil Alt ntas & Melike Kum, 2013. "Multivariate Granger Causality between Electricity Generation, Exports, Prices and Economic Growth in Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(Special), pages 41-51.
    11. Xu, Shang & Zhang, Jun, 2023. "The welfare impacts of removing coal subsidies in rural China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    12. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Raza, Syed Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amir-ud-Din, Rafi & Sbia, Rashid & Shah, Nida, 2018. "Testing for wavelet based time-frequency relationship between oil prices and US economic activity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 571-580.
    14. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Pires Manso, José Ramos, 2014. "The linkage between crude oil consumption and economic growth in Latin America: The panel framework investigations for multiple regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-241.
    16. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 94725, The World Bank.
    17. Jinyu Chen & Xuehong Zhu, 2021. "The Effects of Different Types of Oil Price Shocks on Industrial PPI: Evidence from 36 Sub-industries in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3411-3434, September.
    18. Aiman Albatayneh & Adel Juaidi & Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro, 2023. "The Negative Impact of Electrical Energy Subsidies on the Energy Consumption—Case Study from Jordan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, January.
    19. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ahmed, Khalid & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jiao, Zhilun, 2019. "Resource curse hypothesis and role of oil prices in USA," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy subsidy; Oil price; Price behavior; Malaysia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:171:y:2019:i:c:p:1000-1008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.