IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wsrepe/4551.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Detrending procedures and cointegration testing: ECM tests under structural breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Arranz, Miguel A.
  • Escribano, Álvaro

Abstract

It is well known that all the test for unit roots and cointegration depend on the deterministic elements that are in mean of the variables; constant, trend, breaks, outliers, segmented trends, etc. This is a serious inconvenient for empirical work. In this paper we analyze if those problems could be solved by forming the cointegration tests on extended models, on the components of the series obtained from trend cycle decompositions. We do that by Monte Carlo Simulations allowing for several structural breaks in the data generating process.

Suggested Citation

  • Arranz, Miguel A. & Escribano, Álvaro, 1998. "Detrending procedures and cointegration testing: ECM tests under structural breaks," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 4551, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:4551
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/4551/ws981509.pdf?sequence=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan José & Mestre, Ricardo, 1997. "ECM tests for cointegration in a single equation framework," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10607, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    5. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    6. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    7. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lee, Inpyo & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "Optimal changepoint tests for normal linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 9-38, January.
    8. Alain Guay & Pierre Saint-Amant, 2005. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 77, pages 133-155.
    9. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1988. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 468-497, December.
    10. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-478, October.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    12. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    13. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    14. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
    15. Lucas, André, 1995. "Unit Root Tests Based on M Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 331-346, February.
    16. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, March.
    17. Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, André, 1997. "Outlier robust cointegration analysis," Serie Research Memoranda 0045, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    18. Lucas, Andre, 1995. "An outlier robust unit root test with an application to the extended Nelson-Plosser data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 153-173.
    19. Leybourne, Stephen J. & C. Mills, Terence & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of a break under the null," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 191-203, August.
    20. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1148-1171, October.
    21. Lucas, André, 1997. "Cointegration Testing Using Pseudolikelihood Ratio Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 149-169, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro & García, Ana, 2003. "Range unit root tests," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws031126, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Miguel Arranz & Alvaro Escribano, 2004. "Outliers - robust ECM cointegration tests based on the trend components," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 243-266, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miguel Arranz & Alvaro Escribano, 2004. "Outliers - robust ECM cointegration tests based on the trend components," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 243-266, December.
    2. Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro & García, Ana, 2003. "Range unit root tests," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws031126, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Arranz, Miguel A. & Escribano, Álvaro & Mármol, Francesc, 2002. "Effects of Applying Linear and Nonlinear Filters on Tests for Unit Roots with Additive Outliers," UC3M Working papers. Economics we20091101, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    4. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    5. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "How Do Oil Shocks A¤ect the Structural Stability of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/20, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217.
    8. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James B. Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2017. "Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 127-151, January.
    9. Anne Morrison Piehl & Suzanne J. Cooper & Anthony A. Braga & David M. Kennedy, 2003. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 550-558, August.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    12. Burcu Kapar & William Pouliot, 2013. "Multiple Change-Point Detection in Linear Regression Models via U-Statistic Type Processes," Discussion Papers 13-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    13. Hervé Le Bihan, 2004. "Tests de ruptures : une application au PIB tendanciel français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 133-154.
    14. Cathy S. Goldberg & Francisco A. Delgado, 2001. "Financial Integration of Emerging Markets: An Analysis of Latin America Versus South Asia Using Individual Stocks," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 5(4), pages 259-301, December.
    15. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    16. Roberto Astolfi & Dominique Ladiray & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2001. "Business Cycle Extraction of Euro-Zone GDP: Direct versus Indirect Approach," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 377-398.
    17. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
    18. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    19. Kurozumi, Eiji & Tuvaandorj, Purevdorj, 2011. "Model selection criteria in multivariate models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 218-238, October.
    20. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration testing;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:4551. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://portal.uc3m.es/portal/page/portal/dpto_estadistica .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.