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Changes in the risk structure of stock returns. Consumer Confidence and the Dotcom Bubble

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Abstract

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns may sometimes be very revealing. We examine economic variables that help explain principal components in UK stock returns, 01/1985 to 12/2001. The loading pattern on explanatory variables for the first component in a ‘bubble’ period is distinctive and consistent with a bubble/crash market. The second component shows a loading pattern on a Consumer Confidence variable in a pre-bubble period only. We observe apparently systematic changes in the structure of risk, and conjecture that Consumer Confidence captures a change in market sentiment that could be a signal for the evolution of stock prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Loughborough University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2007_15.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision: Jun 2007
Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2007_15

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Keywords: Macroeconomic variables; consumer confidence; stock returns; principal components analysis;

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Cited by:
  1. Vitor Leone, 2011. "From Property Companies to Real Estate Investment Trusts: The Impact of Economic and Property Factors on UK Listed Property Returns," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 16(1), pages 19-36, March.
  2. Morris, John J. & Alam, Pervaiz, 2012. "Value relevance and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 243-255.
  3. Vitor Leone, 2010. "From Property Companies to Real Estate Investment Trusts: The Impact of Economic and Property Factors in the UK Commercial Property Returns," Working Papers 2010/4, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.

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