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Short-run Lats Rate Movements: Impact of Foreign Currency Shocks via Trade and Financial Markets”

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  • Martins Kazaks

    (School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University College London and Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the short-run dynamic impact of foreign currency shocks on the deviations of Latvian lats vis-à-vis US dollar market spot rate from the parity set via lats’ peg to SDR for the period from 1994 to 2000. The analysis is based on the standard theoretical model of dynamic cost adjustment, from which empirical models of the autoregressive distributed-lags form are derived. Reduction of several versions of such general models leads to a number of parsimonious and data congruent models. Our main findings from the modelling experiment are: Cross-currency shocks produce extensive impact on the net rate of lats, especially those shocks from the neighbouring transition economies, such as Estonia and Lithuania; These shocks may not be original, and may well act as transmission ports of other foreign currency shocks; The Russian crisis of August 1998 has exerted massive devaluation pressure on lats; The shocks are found to be transmittable via either trade and financial linkages, with the financial channel being the most contagious; Model configurations are found, however, neither unique nor definitely invariant, suggesting that it might be necessary to maintain several models in practice to fulfil different purposes in policy analyses and economic forecasting.

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File URL: http://www.ssees.ucl.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp26.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CHANGE IN EUROPE,School of Slavonic and East European Studies,University College London (SSEES,UCL) in its series Working Papers with number 26 Key words: exchange rate determination, currency shock transmission, trade linkages, financial market linkages, capital mobility, transition. JEL classification: E44, E58, F31, F41.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:see:wpaper:26

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  1. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, September.
  2. Edison, Hali & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2001. "Stopping hot money," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 533-553, December.
  3. Nada Mora & Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Pietro Garibaldi, 2002. "What Moves Capital to Transition Economies?," IMF Working Papers 02/64, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 1999. "Financial Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," MNB Working Papers 1999/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
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