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Expectations and Contagion in Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks

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  • Todd Keister

    ()
    (Research and Statistics Group Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract

This paper shows how expectations-driven contagion of currency crises can arise even if the currency market has a unique equilibrium when viewed in isolation. The model of Morris and Shin (1998) is extended to allow speculators to trade in a second currency market. If speculators believe that a devaluation of this other currency will make a domestic devaluation more likely, they will engage in trades that link the two markets. A sharp devaluation of the other currency will then be propagated to the domestic market and will increase the likelihood of a crisis there, fulfilling the original expectations. Even though this contagion is driven solely by expectations, the model places restrictions on observable variables, and these restrictions are broadly consistent with existing empirical evidence

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 485.

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Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:485

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Keywords: Contagion; Currency Crisis; Coordination; Global Games;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Junichi Fujimoto, 2014. "Speculative Attacks with Multiple Targets," CARF F-Series CARF-F-340, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  2. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00177058 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Tai-kuang Ho & Ming-yen Wu, 2012. "Third-person Effect and Financial Contagion in the Context of a Global Game," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 823-846, November.
  4. Agata Kliber, 2011. "Sovereign CDS Instruments in Central Europe – Linkages and Interdependence," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 11, pages 111-128.
  5. Huberto M. Ennis, 2005. "Complementariedades y Política Macroeconómica," Department of Economics, Working Papers 054, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  6. Tamgac, Unay, 2011. "Crisis and self-fulfilling expectations: The Turkish experience in 1994 and 2000-2001," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 44-58, January.

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