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Incertitude stratégique et sélection d'équilibre : deux applications

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  • Jean-Marc Tallon

    ()
    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

Abstract

L'intérêt de l'approche par les jeux globaux ("global games'') est précisément d'ancrer les anticipations sur des variables exogènes réelles. On peut ainsi garder l'aspect auto-réalisateur des anticipations mais en restaurant l'unicité de l'équilibre et donc un meilleur pouvoir prédictif du modèle. Nous illustrons ces mécanismes sur deux exemples. Le premier a trait au choix résidentiel d'agents qui ont une préférence "identitaire''. Le second a trait à la contagion de paniques bancaires d'un pays à un autre. De manière plus générale, tous les jeux qui présentent des complémentarités stratégiques sont susceptibles d'être analysés au moyen des techniques des "global games''. Il convient toutefois de rappeler que les techniques utilisées demeurent assez spécifiques: l'incertitude stratégique porte essentiellement sur les croyances de premier degré des autres acteurs. Or, si de manière plus générale on suppose que cette incertitude peut porter sur des ordres plus élevés, les conclusions des modèles peuvent changer. Ainsi, Weinstein et Yildiz (2004) montrent que dans un oligopole de Cournot, il y a une très grande multiplicité d'équilibres si on suppose que l'incertitude porte sur les croyances de niveaux suffisamment élevés.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00177058.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Publication status: Published, Revue d'Economie Industrielle, 2006, 114-115, 105-118
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00177058

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Keywords: jeux globaux; complémentarité stratégique;

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References

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  1. Frankel, David M. & Pauzner, Ady, 2002. "Expectations and the Timing of Neighborhood Change," Staff General Research Papers 11921, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  14. Amil Dasgupta, 2004. "Financial Contagion Through Capital Connections: A Model of the Origin and Spread of Bank Panics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1049-1084, December.
  15. Jonathan Weinstein & Muhamet Yildiz, 2004. "Finite-Order Implications of Any Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000000065, David K. Levine.
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