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Expectations and Contagion in Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks

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  • Tood Keister

    ()
    (Centro de Investigacion Economica (CIE), Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM))

Abstract

This paper shows how expectations-driven contagion of currency crises can arise even if the currency market has a unique equilibrium when viewed in isolation. The model of Morris and Shin (1998) is extended to allow speculators to trade in a second currency market. If speculators believe that a devaluation of this other currency will make a domestic devaluation more likely, they will engage in trades that link the two markets. A sharp devaluation of the other currency will then be propagated to the domestic market and will increase the likelihood of a crisis there, fulfilling the original expectations. Even though this contagion is driven solely by expectations, the model places restrictions on observable variables, and these restrictions are broadly consistent with existing empirical evidence.

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File URL: http://ftp.itam.mx/pub/academico/inves/keister/05-01.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM in its series Working Papers with number 0501.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cie:wpaper:0501

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  1. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
  3. Paul Masson, 1999. "Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
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  6. Stephen Morris & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2004. "Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management ysm424, Yale School of Management.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tamgac, Unay, 2011. "Crisis and self-fulfilling expectations: The Turkish experience in 1994 and 2000-2001," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 44-58, January.
  2. Junichi Fujimoto, 2014. "Speculative Attacks with Multiple Targets," CARF F-Series CARF-F-340, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  3. Huberto M. Ennis, 2005. "Complementariedades y Política Macroeconómica," Department of Economics, Working Papers 054, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  4. Tai-kuang Ho & Ming-yen Wu, 2012. "Third-person Effect and Financial Contagion in the Context of a Global Game," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 823-846, November.
  5. Jean-Marc Tallon, 2006. "Incertitude stratégique et sélection d'équilibre : deux applications," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00177058, HAL.
  6. Agata Kliber, 2011. "Sovereign CDS Instruments in Central Europe – Linkages and Interdependence," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 11, pages 111-128.

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