IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cpn/umkdem/v11y2011p111-128.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sovereign CDS Instruments in Central Europe – Linkages and Interdependence

Author

Listed:
  • Agata Kliber

    (Poznan University of Economics)

Abstract

In the article, linkages among sovereign CDS instruments in Central Europe are investigated. Special attention is paid to the change of causality patterns during the Hungarian and Greek crises. The results of the research reveal that the expectations do play a role in determining the prices of the contracts, as well as that there exist regional causality relationships between the instruments. The strength of causality between the volatilities of Polish – Hungarian and Czech-Hungarian CDS prices weakened during the Hungarian crisis, while the volatilities of the three time series reacted rapidly and strongly to the Greek one. This suggest that the European events should play more important role in determining the dynamics of the contracts than the problems of the country of the weakest fundamentals in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Agata Kliber, 2011. "Sovereign CDS Instruments in Central Europe – Linkages and Interdependence," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 11, pages 111-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpn:umkdem:v:11:y:2011:p:111-128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.dem.umk.pl/dem/archiwa/v11/08_Kliber%20A.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    2. Todd Keister, 2009. "Expectations And Contagion In Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 991-1012, August.
    3. Jun Yu & Renate Meyer, 2006. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation and Model Comparison," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2-3), pages 361-384.
    4. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
    6. Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lukasz Dopierala & Daria Ilczuk & Liwiusz Wojciechowski, 2020. "Sovereign credit ratings and CDS spreads in Emerging Europe," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(3), pages 419-438, September.
    2. Agata Kliber, 2014. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Evolution of the Financial Crisis in Selected Central European Economies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 330-350, September.
    3. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
    4. Michał Adam, 2013. "Spillovers and contagion in the sovereign CDS market," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 44(6), pages 571-604.
    5. Gonzalo Camba-Méndez & Konrad Kostrzewa & Anna Mospan & Dobromił Serwa, 2014. "Pricing sovereign credit risk of an emerging market," NBP Working Papers 189, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. Agata Kliber, 2013. "Influence of the Greek Crisis on the Risk Perception of European Economies," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 5(2), pages 125-161, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Afonso, António & Gomes, Pedro & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2014. "Sovereign credit ratings, market volatility, and financial gains," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 20-33.
    2. Bubák, Vít & Kocenda, Evzen & Zikes, Filip, 2011. "Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2829-2841, November.
    3. David McMillan & Isabel Ruiz & Alan Speight, 2010. "Correlations and spillovers among three euro rates: evidence using realised variance," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 753-767.
    4. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    5. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Jun Yu, 2006. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," Microeconomics Working Papers 22058, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    6. Tomoaki Nakatani & Timo Terasvirta, 2009. "Testing for volatility interactions in the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 147-163, March.
    7. Asai, Manabu & Caporin, Massimiliano & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk using block structure multivariate stochastic volatility models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 40-50.
    8. Manner, Hans & Reznikova, Olga, 2010. "Forecasting international stock market correlations: does anything beat a CCC?," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 7/10, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
    9. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    10. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Hedging spark spread risk with futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 731-746.
    11. Roberto Casarin & Marco Tronzano & Domenico Sartore, 2013. "Bayesian Markov Switching Stochastic Correlation Models," Working Papers 2013:11, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    12. Arias, Jonas E. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Shin, Minchul, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting and variable ordering in multivariate stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1054-1086.
    13. Siddhartha Chib & Yasuhiro Omori & Manabu Asai, 2007. "Multivariate stochastic volatility (Revised in May 2007, Handbook of Financial Time Series (Published in "Handbook of Financial Time Series" (eds T.G. Andersen, R.A. Davis, Jens-Peter Kreiss," CARF F-Series CARF-F-094, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    14. Felipe G. Avileis & Mindy L. Mallory, 2022. "The impact of Brazil on global grain dynamics: A study on cross‐market volatility spillovers," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(2), pages 231-245, March.
    15. Woźniak, Tomasz, 2015. "Testing causality between two vectors in multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 876-894.
    16. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "The structure of dynamic correlations in multivariate stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 182-192, June.
    17. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C. & Laurent, S., 2012. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner C. & Laurent, S., 2011. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    18. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Helena Chuliá & Hipòlit Torró, 2008. "The economic value of volatility transmission between the stock and bond markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1066-1094, November.
    20. Felipe Avileis & Mindy Mallory, 2021. "The Impact of Brazil on Global Grain Dynamics: A Study on Cross-Market Volatility Spillovers," Papers 2104.12706, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpn:umkdem:v:11:y:2011:p:111-128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Miroslawa Buczynska (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.wydawnictwoumk.pl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.