Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using Block Structure Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam,Tinbergen Institute,Kyoto University,Complutense University of Madrid)

  • Manabu Asai

    (Faculty of Economics Soka University)

  • Massimiliano Caporin

    (Department of Economics and Management “Marco Fanno”University of Padova)

Abstract

Most multivariate variance or volatility models suffer from a common problem, the “curse of dimensionality”. For this reason, most are fitted under strong parametric restrictions that reduce the interpretation and flexibility of the models. Recently, the literature has focused on multivariate models with milder restrictions, whose purpose was to combine the need for interpretability and efficiency faced by model users with the computational problems that may emerge when the number of assets is quite large. We contribute to this strand of the literature proposing a block-type parameterization for multivariate stochastic volatility models. The empirical analysis on stock returns on US market shows that 1% and 5 % Value-at-Risk thresholds based on one-step-ahead forecasts of covariances by the new specification are satisfactory for the period includes the global financial crisis.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP812.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 812.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:812

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yoshida-Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501
Phone: +81-75-753-7102
Fax: +81-75-753-7193
Email:
Web page: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/eng/index.html
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: block structures; multivariate stochastic volatility; curse of dimensionality; leverage effects; multi-factors; heavy-tailed distribution.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Arthur Lewbel & Serena Ng, 2005. "Demand Systems with Nonstationary Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 479-494, August.
  2. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 247-64, April.
  3. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
  4. Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2006. "Analysis of high dimensional multivariate stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 341-371, October.
  5. Danielsson, Jon, 1998. "Multivariate stochastic volatility models: Estimation and a comparison with VGARCH models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 155-173, June.
  6. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  7. Yacine AÏT-SAHALIA, & Michael W. BRANDT, 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," FAME Research Paper Series rp34, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  8. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
  9. David Chan & Robert Kohn & Chris Kirby, 2006. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models with Correlated Errors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2-3), pages 245-274.
  10. Siem Jan Koopman & Eugenie Hol Uspensky, 2002. "The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 667-689.
  11. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat & Wang, Yintian, 2008. "Option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 272-297, December.
  12. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Jun Yu, 2006. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," Microeconomics Working Papers 22058, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  13. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  14. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
  15. Bertrand Candelon & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Sessi Tokpavi, 2011. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A GMM Duration-Based Test," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 9(2), pages 314-343, Spring.
  16. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F., 2006. "Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 57-71.
  17. Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003. "Alternative models for stock price dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
  18. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
  19. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Michele Gobbo, 2006. "Flexible Dynamic Conditional Correlation multivariate GARCH models for asset allocation," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 123-130, March.
  20. Pashardes, Panos, 1993. "Bias in Estimating the Almost Ideal Demand System with the Stone Index Approximation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(419), pages 908-15, July.
  21. Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02.
  22. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range-Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, 06.
  23. Calvet, Laurent E. & Fisher, Adlai J. & Thompson, Samuel B., 2006. "Volatility comovement: a multifrequency approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 179-215.
  24. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer, 2006. "Asymmetric Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2-3), pages 453-473.
  25. McAleer, M.J. & Huang, B-W. & Kuo, H-I. & Chen, C-C. & Chang, C-L., 2008. "An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-21, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  26. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  27. Roman Liesenfeld & Robert C. Jung, 2000. "Stochastic volatility models: conditional normality versus heavy-tailed distributions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 137-160.
  28. Asai, Manabu, 2009. "Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with mixture-of-normal distributions," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 2579-2596.
  29. M. Thea Sinclair, 1998. "Tourism and economic development: A survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 1-51.
  30. Harvey, Andrew C & Shephard, Neil, 1996. "Estimation of an Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Model for Asset Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 429-34, October.
  31. Jun Yu & Renate Meyer, 2004. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation and Model Comparison," Working Papers 23-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  32. Andreas Papatheodorou, 1999. "The demand for international tourism in the Mediterranean region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 619-630.
  33. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
  34. Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2002. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 281-316, June.
  35. Aguilar, Omar & West, Mike, 2000. "Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models and Portfolio Allocation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 338-57, July.
  36. Moschini, Giancarlo, 1998. "The semiflexible almost ideal demand system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 349-364, February.
  37. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Multivariate stochastic volatility, leverage and news impact surfaces," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(2), pages 292-309, 07.
  38. Peter Christoffersen, 2004. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 84-108.
  39. Moschini, GianCarlo & Moro, D. & Green, Richard D., 1994. "Maintaining and Testing Separability in Demand Systems," Staff General Research Papers 11247, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  40. Moschini, GianCarlo, 1998. "Semiflexible Almost Ideal Demand System, The," Staff General Research Papers 1193, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  41. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Jun Yu, 2006. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2-3), pages 145-175.
  42. Asai, Manabu, 2008. "Autoregressive stochastic volatility models with heavy-tailed distributions: A comparison with multifactor volatility models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 332-341, March.
  43. Lehar, Alfred & Scheicher, Martin & Schittenkopf, Christian, 2002. "GARCH vs. stochastic volatility: Option pricing and risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 323-345, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:812. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ryo Okui).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.