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Stock Prices and Inflation

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  • Anari, Ali
  • Kolari, James
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    Abstract

    Numerous empirical studies establish that inflation has a negative short-run effect on stock returns but few studies report a positive, long-run Fisher effect for stock returns. Using stock price and goods price data from six industrial countries, our empirical results show that long-run Fisher elasticities of stock prices with respect to goods prices exceed unity and are in the range of 1.04 to 1.65, which tend to support the Fisher effect. We also find that the time path of the response of stock prices to a shock in goods prices exhibits an initial negative response which turns positive over longer horizons. These results help to reconcile previous short-run and long-run empirical evidence on stock returns and inflation. Also, they reveal that stock prices have a long memory with respect to inflation shocks, such that investors should expect stocks to be a good inflation hedge over a long holding period.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association in its journal Journal of Financial Research.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 4 (Winter)
    Pages: 587-602

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:24:y:2001:i:4:p:587-602

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    Web page: http://www.southwesternfinance.org/
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    Cited by:
    1. Rushdi, Mustabshira & Kim, Jae H. & Silvapulle, Param, 2012. "ARDL bounds tests and robust inference for the long run relationship between real stock returns and inflation in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 535-543.
    2. Li, Lifang & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2010. "An analysis of inflation and stock returns for the UK," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 519-532, December.
    3. Tobias Basse & Sebastian Reddemann, 2010. "Variable-ordering induced problems of impulse-response analysis and other difficulties: the dividend policy of Austrian firms," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3/4), pages 278-293.
    4. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Can Common Stocks Provide A Hedge Against Inflation? Evidence from African Countries," Working Paper Series 06_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño, 2013. "Inflation news and stock returns: market direction and flow-through ability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 775-798, April.
    7. Dimitrios Subeniotis & Dimitrios Papadopoulos & Ioannis Tampakoudis & Athina Tampakoudi, 2011. "How Inflation, Market Capitalization, Industrial Production and the Economic Sentiment Indicator Affect the EU-12 Stock Markets," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 105-120.
    8. Adam, Anokye M. & Tweneboah, George, 2008. "Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market Movement: Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 11256, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "The long-run relationship between stock prices and goods prices: New evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 166-176, April.
    10. repec:tru:umkeip:2012:v3:p:153-167 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Stocks as Hedge against Inflation in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 30970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Mar 2011.
    12. Lee, King Fuei, 2013. "Demographics and the long-horizon returns of dividend-yield strategies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 202-218.
    13. Lee, King Fuei, 2011. "Demographics and the Long-Horizon Returns of Dividend-Yield Strategies in the US," MPRA Paper 46350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. repec:cpn:umkeip:2012:v3:p:153-167 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco, 2009. "Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, September.
    16. Piotr Fiszeder & Sebastian Rowinski, 2012. "Modeling relations between selected macroeconomic processes and the Warsaw Stock Exchange index," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10(3), pages 153-167, September.

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