IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/653.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stock Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Morocco

Author

Listed:
  • Adel A. Al-Sharkas
  • Marwan Al-Zoubi

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper attempts to investigate monthly stock price indexes and good price indexes for selected Mashreq and Maghreb countries: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Kuwait for 2000-2009 using cointegration methods. Our findings support the long-run relationship between stock prices and goods prices. The long-run Fisher elasticities of stock prices with respect to goods prices are in the range of 1.01 to 1.36 across the four countries under study. With the exception of Kuwait, the Fisher effect coefficient estimates are significantly greater than one. In the case of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco the empirical results support the Fisher hypothesis, with estimated coefficients near unity.

Suggested Citation

  • Adel A. Al-Sharkas & Marwan Al-Zoubi, 2011. "Stock Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Morocco," Working Papers 653, Economic Research Forum, revised 12 Jan 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:653
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/653.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://bit.ly/2n3fFm8
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    2. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-483, May.
    3. Ely, David P. & Robinson, Kenneth J., 1997. "Are stocks a hedge against inflation? International evidence using a long-run approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-167, February.
    4. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
    5. Khil, Jaeuk & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2000. "Are common stocks a good hedge against inflation? Evidence from the Pacific-rim countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 457-482, July.
    6. Chao Wei, 2009. "Does the stock market react to unexpected inflation differently across the business cycle?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(24), pages 1947-1959.
    7. Firth, Michael, 1979. "The Relationship between Stock Market Returns and Rates of Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(3), pages 743-749, June.
    8. Solnik, Bruno, 1983. "The Relation between Stock Prices and Inflationary Expectations: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 35-48, March.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    11. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    12. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    13. Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-212, August.
    14. Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-470, May.
    15. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    16. Pierse, R. G. & Snell, A. J., 1995. "Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 333-345, February.
    17. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    18. Pyun, Chong Soo & Lee, Sa Young & Nam, Kiseok, 2000. "Volatility and information flows in emerging equity market: A case of the Korean Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 405-420.
    19. Marshall, David A, 1992. "Inflation and Asset Returns in a Monetary Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1315-1342, September.
    20. Hess, Patrick J & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1999. "Stock Returns and Inflation with Supply and Demand Disturbances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1203-1218.
    21. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    22. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    24. Rousseau, P. L. & Wachtel, P., 2000. "Equity markets and growth: Cross-country evidence on timing and outcomes, 1980-1995," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1933-1957, December.
    25. Ali Anari & James Kolari, 2001. "Stock Prices And Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, December.
    26. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    27. Kul B. Luintel & Krishna Paudyal, 2006. "Are Common Stocks A Hedge Against Inflation?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-19, March.
    28. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323.
    29. Lansing, Kevin, 2005. "Inflation-Induced Valuation Errors in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 13, pages 124-126.
    30. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    31. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-177, Supplemen.
    32. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    33. James, Christopher & Koreisha, Sergio & Partch, Megan, 1985. "A VARMA Analysis of the Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Real Output, and Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1375-1384, December.
    34. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    35. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
    36. Keshab Shrestha & Sheng‐Syan Chen & Cheng‐few Lee, 2002. "Are Expected Inflation Rates and Expected Real Rates Negatively Correlated? A Long‐Run Test of the Mundell‐Tobin Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 305-320, September.
    37. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-1355, December.
    38. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    39. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
    40. Lintner, John, 1975. "Inflation and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 259-280, May.
    41. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    42. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    43. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Mandelker, Gershon, 1976. "The "Fisher Effect" for Risky Assets: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 447-458, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    2. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    4. Nassar S. Al-Nassar & Razzaque H. Bhatti, 2019. "Are common stocks a hedge against inflation in emerging markets?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 421-455, July.
    5. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
    6. Osamah M. Al-Khazali, 2003. "Stock Prices, Inflation, and Output: Evidence from the Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 2(3), pages 287-314, September.
    7. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Can common stocks provide a hedge against inflation? Evidence from African countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 91-100, August.
    8. Du, Ding, 2006. "Monetary policy, stock returns and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 36-54.
    9. Martin Hoesli & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2008. "The Inflation Hedging Characteristics of US and UK Investments: A Multi-Factor Error Correction Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 183-206, February.
    10. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    11. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2009. "Do foreign purchases of U.S. stocks help the U.S. stock market?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 969-986, December.
    12. Ali Anari & James Kolari, 2001. "Stock Prices And Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, December.
    13. Kamrul Hassan & Ariful Hoque & Ananth Rao, 2015. "Revisiting the Link Between Stock Prices and Goods Prices in OECD Countries," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 135-150, September.
    14. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Ijaz Ur Rehman, 2016. "Stocks as Hedge against Inflation in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(6), pages 1280-1295, December.
    15. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2001. "Inflation and rates of return on stocks: evidence from high inflation countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 75-96, March.
    16. Martin Hoesli & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2006. "The Inflation Hedging Characteristics of US and UK Investments:Â A Multi-Factor Error Correction Approach," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2006-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    17. Ely, David P. & Robinson, Kenneth J., 1997. "Are stocks a hedge against inflation? International evidence using a long-run approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-167, February.
    18. Pierre Siklos & Ben Kwok, 1999. "Stock returns and inflation: a new test of competing hypotheses," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 567-581.
    19. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Michael Weber, 2018. "Low Inflation: High Default Risk AND High Equity Valuations," NBER Working Papers 25317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Niyati Bhanja & Arif Billah Dar, 2019. "Stock returns and inflation: a tale of two periods in India," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 413-438, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:653. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.