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Forecasting economic time series with unconditional time-varying variance

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  • Van Bellegem, Sebastien
  • von Sachs, Rainer

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 20 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 611-627

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:20:y:2004:i:4:p:611-627

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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References

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 1997. "Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 439-461, December.
  2. Ramsey, James B. & Zhang, Zhifeng, 1997. "The analysis of foreign exchange data using waveform dictionaries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 341-372, December.
  3. Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Working Papers 2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  4. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  6. Zeng Tian & Swanson Norman R., 1998. "Predictive Evaluation of Econometric Forecasting Models in Commodity Futures Markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-21, January.
  7. Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1990. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. " Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-48, September.
  9. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809.
  10. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  12. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. White, Halbert & Domowitz, Ian, 1984. "Nonlinear Regression with Dependent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 143-61, January.
  14. Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan), 1989. "Long-term memory in stock market prices," Working papers 3014-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  15. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Testing for covariance stationarity in stock market data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 165-170, June.
  16. Bollerslev, T. & Ghysels, E., 1994. "Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Cahiers de recherche 9408, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  17. repec:att:wimass:9208 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Hoffman, Dennis L & Pagan, Adrian R, 1989. "Post-Sample Prediction Tests for Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 333-43, August.
  19. Grillenzoni, Carlo, 1998. "Forecasting unstable and nonstationary time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 469-482, December.
  20. Loretan, Mico & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1994. "Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 211-248, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Daskovska, Alexandra & Simar, Léopold & Van Bellegem, Sébastien, 2009. "Forecasting the Malmquist Productivity Index," IDEI Working Papers 634, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  2. Ray Yeutien Chou & Chun-Chou Wu & Yi-Nung yang, 2012. "The euro's impacts on the smooth transition dynamics of stock market volatilities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 169-179, May.
  3. repec:pdn:wpaper:69 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Amado, Cristina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2013. "Modelling volatility by variance decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 142-153.
  5. Cristina Amado & Timo Teräsvirta, 2012. "Modelling Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Long Stock Return Series," CREATES Research Papers 2012-07, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  6. Cristina Amado & Timo Teräsvirta, 2011. "Conditional Correlation Models of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Nonstationary GARCH Equations," NIPE Working Papers 15/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  7. Yuanhua Feng & Lixin Sun, 2013. "A semi-APARCH approach for comparing long-term and short-term risk in Chinese financial market and in mature financial markets," Working Papers CIE 69, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
  8. VAN BELLEGEM, Sébastien, 2011. "Locally stationary volatility modelling," CORE Discussion Papers 2011041, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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