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Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?: Essays in Econometric Methodology

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  • Hendry, David F.

    (Nuffield College, Oxford)

Abstract

"Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?" analyses the effectiveness and validity of applying econometric methods to economic time series. The methodological dispute is long-standing, and no claim can be made for a single valid method, but recent results on the theory and practice of model selection bid fair to resolve many of the contentious issues. The book presents criticisms and evaluations of competing approaches, based on theoretical economic and econometric analyses, empirical applications, and Monte Carlo simulations, which interact to determine best practice. It explains the evolution of an approach to econometric modelling founded in careful statistical analyses of the available data, using economic theory to guide the general model specification. From a strong foundation in the theory of reduction, via a range of applied and simulation studies, it demonstrates that general-to-specific procedures have excellent properties. The book is divided into four Parts: Routes and Route Maps; Empirical Modelling Strategies; Formalization; and Retrospect and Prospect. A short preamble to each chapter sketches the salient themes, links to earlier and later developments, and the lessons learnt or missed at the time. A sequence of detailed empirical studies of consumers' expenditure and money demand illustrate most facets of the approach. Material new to this revised edition describes recent major advances in computer-automated model selection, embodied in the powerful new software program PcGets, which establish the operational success of the modelling strategy.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by Oxford University Press in its series OUP Catalogue with number 9780198293545 and published in 2000.

ISBN: 9780198293545
Order: http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780198293545.do
Handle: RePEc:oxp:obooks:9780198293545

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Cited by:
  1. Barigozzi, Matteo & Alessi, Lucia & Capasso, Marco & Fagiolo, Giorgio, 2012. "The distribution of household consumption-expenditure budget shares," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 69-91.
  2. Zaman, Asad, 2008. "Causal Relations via Econometrics," MPRA Paper 10128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2012. "Regional Effects of Federal Tax Shocks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201217, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  4. Sheetal K. Chand, 2004. "Macroeconomics - Which Way Now? Old versus New Styles," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 30, pages 11-26.
  5. Matteo Barigozzi & Lucia Alessi & Marco Capasso & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2008. "The Distribution of Consumption-Expenditure Budget Shares. Evidence from Italian Households," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2008-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group.
  6. Tobias Caris & Bernd Hayo, 2012. "Female Labour Force Participation in Arab Countries: The Role of Identity," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201241, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  7. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2011. "Political Leaders’ Socioeconomic Background and Fiscal Performance in Germany," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201141, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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