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Empirical assessment of the tourism-led growth hypothesis: the case of the “Tirol-Südtirol-Trentino†Europaregion

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  • Juan Gabriel Brida
  • Diego Giuliani

Abstract

The use of cointegration tests has become very popular in the empirical analysis of the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). It was first introduced in the tourism economics literature by Balaguer and Cantavella-Jordà (2002) and then popularized by many researches which tried to assess the causal long-run relationship between international tourism and economic growth. The vast majority of these studies analyzed countries where tourism is one of the most important sector of the national economy and, in most cases, the TLGH has been validated. With respect to previous contributions to the literature, this paper investigates the TLGH for subnational transfrontier economies, namely the three administrative areas forming the “Tirol-Südtirol-Trentino†Europaregion. The direct comparison amongst the results for across-the-border regions which have a similar international tourism market provides new insights in the understanding of tourism-led growth hypothesis. Length: 25 pages

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy in its series DISA Working Papers with number 2012/02.

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Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision: Mar 2012
Handle: RePEc:trt:disawp:2012/02

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Related research

Keywords: economic growth; tourism development; Johansen cointegration test; Granger causality;

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References

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  1. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2000. "Tourism As A Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case," Working Papers. Serie EC 2000-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  2. Joon Y. Park & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1190, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  4. Krueger, Anne O, 1980. "Trade Policy as an Input to Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 288-92, May.
  5. McCallum, Bennett T., 1984. "On low-frequency estimates of long-run relationships in macroeconomics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-14, July.
  6. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Barquet, Andrea & Risso, Wiston Adrián, 2009. "Causality between Economic Growth and Tourism Expansion: Empirical Evidence from Trentino - Alto Adige," MPRA Paper 25316, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2009.
  7. Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  8. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  9. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  10. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Nonlinear Econometric Models with Cointegrated and Deterministically Trending Regressors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1245, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
  12. JG. Brida & M. Pulina, 2010. "A literature review on the tourism-led-growth hypothesis," Working Paper CRENoS 201017, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  13. Edgar J Sanchez Carrera & W. Adrian Risso & Juan Gabriel Brida, 2008. "Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(21), pages 1-8.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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