Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth
AbstractTourism is one of the most important factors in the productivity of Mexican economy with significant multiplier effects on economic activity. This paper investigates possible causal relationships among tourism expenditure, real exchange rate and economic growth by using quarterly data. Johansen cointegration analysis shows the existence of one cointegrated vector among real GDP, tourism expenditure and real exchange rate where the corresponding elasticities are positive. The tourism-led growth hypothesis is confirmed through cointegration and causality testing. Tourism expenditure and Real Exchange Rate (RER) are weakly exogenous to real GDP. A modified version of the Granger Causality test shows that causality goes unidirectionally from tourism expenditure and RER to real GDP. Impulse response analysis shows that a shock in tourism expenditure produces a short fall and then a positive effect on growth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 3 (2008)
Issue (Month): 21 ()
Contact details of provider:
economic growth Johansen cointegration test Granger causality tourism-led growth hypothesis.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jordan Shan & Ken Wilson, 2001. "Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 279-283.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002.
"Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
- Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2000. "Tourism As A Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case," Working Papers. Serie EC 2000-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
- Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1983.
"On Low-Frequency Estimates of "Long-Run" Relationships in Macro- economics,"
NBER Working Papers
1162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1984. "On low-frequency estimates of long-run relationships in macroeconomics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-14, July.
- Azmat Gani, 1998. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth in the South Pacific island economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(12), pages 747-749.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Elias Soukiazis & Sara Proença, 2008. "Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 43-61, April.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Chang, C-L. & Khamkaew, T. & McAleer, M.J., 2010.
"IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2010-30, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," Working Papers in Economics 10/13, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," KIER Working Papers 708, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-732, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Juan Gabriel Brida & Silvia London & Mara Rojas, 2013. "A Dynamic Model of Tourism and Economic Growth: the Role of Physical and Human Capital," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1361-1373.
- Theodore Panagiotidis & Thomas Panagiotou & Maurizio Mussoni, 2012. "Tourism Led Growth: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests," Working Paper Series 74_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Camelia Surugiu & Marius-Razvan Surugiu, 2011. "Causality Between Tourism Exports And Trade Openness: Empirical Analysis For Romanian Tourism," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 100-109, November.
- Mina Dragouni & George Filis & Nikolaos Antonakakis, 2013.
"Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries,"
FIW Working Paper series
- Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries," MPRA Paper 48715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mahalia Jackman & Troy Lorde, 2010. "On the Relationship between Tourist Flows and Household Expenditure in Barbados: A Dynamic OLS Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 472-481.
- Stefania Lionetti & Juan Gabriel Brida & Wiston Adrián Risso, 2009. "Long run economic growth and tourism: inferring from Uruguay," Quaderni della facoltÃ di Scienze economiche dell'UniversitÃ di Lugano 0901, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Susan S Sharma & Deepa Bannigidadmath, .
"Does Tourism Predict Macroeconomic Performance in Pacific Island Countries?,"
Financial Econometics Series
2013_03, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2013. "Does tourism predict macroeconomic performance in Pacific Island countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 780-786.
- Kadiyali, Vrinda & Kosová, Renáta, 2013. "Inter-industry employment spillovers from tourism inflows," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 272-281.
- Nuno Carlos LEITÃO & Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2012. "Migration and Tourism Demand," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(567)), pages 39-48, February.
- Cellini, Roberto & Cuccia, Tiziana, 2009.
"Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: A time series analysis approach,"
18908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.
- Juan Gabriel Brida & Diego Giuliani, 2012. "Empirical assessment of the tourism-led growth hypothesis: the case of the â€œTirol-SÃ¼dtirol-Trentinoâ€ Europaregion," DISA Working Papers 2012/02, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised Mar 2012.
- Brida, Juan Gabriel & Barquet, Andrea & Risso, Wiston Adrián, 2009. "Causality between Economic Growth and Tourism Expansion: Empirical Evidence from Trentino - Alto Adige," MPRA Paper 25316, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2009.
- Jalil, Abdul & Mahmood, Tahir & Idrees, Muhammad, 2013. "Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 185-191.
- Ronald Kumar, 2014. "Exploring the nexus between tourism, remittances and growth in Kenya," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1573-1588, May.
- Nuno, Carlos Leitão & Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2011. "Migration and Tourist Flows," MPRA Paper 34905, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Nov 2011.
- Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan Sebastián & Such, María Jesús & Pulina, Manuela, 2011.
"Causalidad entre turismo y crecimiento económico de largo plazo: una revisión crítica de la literatura econométrica
[Causality between tourism and long-term economic growth: a critical review o," MPRA Paper 37332, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.