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A Dynamic Model of Economic Growth in a Small Tourism Driven Economy

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  • Schubert, Stefan Franz
  • Brida, Juan Gabriel

Abstract

The paper studies the dynamics of economic growth caused by an increase in the growth rate of tourism demand. We develop a simple dynamic model of a small open economy, which is completely specialized in the production of tourism services (island economy model), populated by a large number of intertemporally optimizing agents, deriving utility from consuming an imported good. Tourism services are produced by means of a simple AK technology by using imported capital, its accumulation associated with adjustment costs. Moreover, the economy can lend or borrow at the international financial markets at the given world interest rate. Adjustments in the relative price of tourism services ensure market clearance for tourism services. The long-run growth rate of the economy is tied to the growth rate in tourism demand. An increase in the latter increases thus the economy’s long-run balanced growth rate. In contrast to the standard one-good small open economy endogenous growth model, where the economy is always on its balanced growth path, we show that there are transitional dynamics after an increase in the growth rate of tourism demand. In particular, the short-run growth rate of output rises gradually towards its higher long-run level, and the market price of tourism increases during transition. Thus, an increase in the growth of tourism demand, say, caused by higher economic growth abroad, leads to a boom in the small open economy and increasing terms of trade. Adjustments of the relative price of tourism services (i. e. the real exchange rate) can therefore not protect the economy from demand disturbances.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16737.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16737

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Keywords: tourism demand; growth; economic dynamics;

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  1. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
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  10. Brock, William A & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1981. "The Analysis of Macroeconomic Policies in Perfect Foresight Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(1), pages 179-209, February.
  11. Paul Evans, 1997. "How Fast Do Economies Converge?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 219-225, May.
  12. Isabel Cortés_Jiménez & Manuela Pulina, 2006. "A further step into the ELGH and TLGH for Spain and Italy," Working Papers 2006.118, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  13. Jean-Jacques Nowak & Mondher Sahli & Pasquale M. Sgro, 2003. "Tourism, Trade And Domestic Welfare," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 245-258, October.
  14. Chi-Chur Chao & Bharat R. Hazari & Jean-Pierre Laffargue & Pasquale M. Sgro & Eden S. H. Yu, 2006. "Tourism, Dutch Disease And Welfare In An Open Dynamic Economy," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(4), pages 501-515.
  15. Chao, Chi-Chur & Hazari, Bharat & Sgro, Pasquale, 2005. "Tourism and economic development in a cash-in-advance economy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 365-373, September.
  16. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  17. Schubert, Stefan Franz & Brida, Juan Gabriel, 2008. "The Dynamic Effects of Subsidizing the Tourism Sector," MPRA Paper 16755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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