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The Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Colombia

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  • Brida, Juan Gabriel
  • Pereyra, Juan S.
  • Risso, Wiston Adrián
  • Devesa, María Jesús Such
  • Aguirre, Sandra Zapata

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of tourism to economic growth in Colombia. First, we perform an ex-post analysis and quantify the contribution of the tourism to economic growth from the early 90’s until 2006 by disaggregating growth of real GDP per capita into economic growth generated by tourism and by other industries. Second, we analyze if international tourism is a strategic factor for long-run economic growth for Colombia. This believes that tourism can cause long-run economic growth it is known in the literature as the tourism-led growth hypothesis. The hypothesis is tested empirically by using the cointegration test by Johansen and the Granger Causality test. We find empirical evidence for one cointegrated vector among real GDP per capita, Colombian tourism expenditures and real exchange rates, where the latter two variables are weakly exogenous to the model. The Granger causality test suggests that causality in this model goes from tourism expenditures to real GDP per capita.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 25286.

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Date of creation: 05 Dec 2008
Date of revision: 19 Mar 2009
Publication status: Published in TOURISMOS: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism 2.4(2009): pp. 13-27
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25286

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Keywords: tourism impacts; economic growth; GDP; cointegration test; causality test;

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References

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  1. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  2. Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Low-Frequency Estimates of "Long-Run" Relationships in Macro- economics," NBER Working Papers 1162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  4. Jordan Shan & Ken Wilson, 2001. "Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 279-283.
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Cited by:
  1. Andreas G. Georgantopoulos, 2013. "Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: Var/Vecm Analysis and Forecasts for the Case of India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 464-482, April.
  2. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan Sebastián & Such, María Jesús & Pulina, Manuela, 2011. "Causalidad entre turismo y crecimiento económico de largo plazo: una revisión crítica de la literatura econométrica
    [Causality between tourism and long-term economic growth: a critical review o
    ," MPRA Paper 37332, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
  3. Theodore Panagiotidis & Thomas Panagiotou & Maurizio Mussoni, 2012. "Tourism Led Growth: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests," Working Paper Series 74_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

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