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Bivariate VAR models to test Granger causality between tourist demand and supply: Implications for regional sustainable growth

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  • Bianca Biagi
  • Manuela Pulina

Abstract

The relationship between tourist demand and supply is investigated employing four time series models. To test for Granger causality a bivariate vector autoregression framework is used. Empirical results from each model are derived for the island of Sardinia (Italy) over the time span 1955 to 2004. The first model suggests supply is demand-driven; the second model implies a bi-directional Granger-causal relationship between demand and capacity. The third and fourth models indicate demand is quality-driven. This empirical finding implies that an environmental conservation policy may be feasible without compromising the number of tourists visiting Sardinia and hence its economic growth. Copyright (c) 2008 the author(s). Journal compilation (c) 2008 RSAI.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Papers in Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 88 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 231-244

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Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:88:y:2009:i:1:p:231-244

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1056-8190

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Cited by:
  1. Tiziana Cuccia & Calogero Guccio & Ilde Rizzo, 2013. "Does Unesco inscription affect the performance of tourism destinations? A regional perspective," ACEI Working Paper Series AWP-04-2013, the Association for Cultural Economics International, revised Oct 2013.
  2. E. Marrocu & R. Paci, 2012. "Tourism and regional growth in Europe," Working Paper CRENoS 201235, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.

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