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Property Market Modelling and Forecasting: A Case for Simplicity

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Listed:
  • Arvydas Jadevicius
  • Brian Sloan
  • Andrew Brown

Abstract

The paper investigates whether complex property market forecasting techniques are better at forecasting than simple specifications. As the research and initial modelling results suggest, simple models outperform the more complex structures. It therefore calls analysts to make forecasts more user-friendly, and for researchers to pay greater attention to the development and improvement of simpler forecasting techniques or simplification of more complex structures. Further planned research will present an alternative simple modelling approach, which was successfully employed by economists, helping to achieve greater predictive outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2013. "Property Market Modelling and Forecasting: A Case for Simplicity," ERES eres2013_10, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2013_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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