Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Reconciling Model and Information Uncertainty in Development Appraisal

Contents:

Author Info

  • Peter Byrne

    (School of Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading)

  • Pat McAllister

    (School of Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading)

  • Pete Wyatt

    ()
    (School of Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper investigates the effect of choices of model structure and scale in development viability appraisal. The paper addresses two questions concerning the application of development appraisal techniques to viability modelling within the UK planning system. The first relates to the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the choice of model structure significantly affects model outputs. The second concerns the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the level of model complexity significantly affects model outputs. Monte Carlo simulation procedures are applied to a hypothetical development scheme in order to measure the effects of model aggregation and structure on model output variance. It is concluded that, given the particular scheme modelled and unavoidably subjective assumptions of input variance, simple and simplistic models may produce similar outputs to more robust and disaggregated models.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/rep/fulltxt/0310.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Henley Business School, Reading University in its series Real Estate & Planning Working Papers with number rep-wp2010-03.

    as in new window
    Length: 27
    Date of creation: 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2010-03

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: PO Box 218, Whiteknights, Reading, Berks, RG6 6AA
    Phone: +44 (0) 118 378 8226
    Fax: +44 (0) 118 975 0236
    Web page: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rdg:repxwp:rep-wp2010-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ed Quick).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.