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Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research

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Author Info
J. S. Armstrong (The Wharton School)

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Abstract

Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for- future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended.

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File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/get/papers/0502/0502025.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0502025.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 04 Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0502025

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: forecasting methods extrapolation

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A - General Economics and Teaching

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Armstrong, J Scott, 1978. "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 549-64, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making," General Economics and Teaching 0502017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984," General Economics and Teaching 0412006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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