Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research
AbstractSophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for- future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0502025.
Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 04 Feb 2005
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Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13
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forecasting; methods; extrapolation;
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- A - General Economics and Teaching
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-16 (All new papers)
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- Armstrong, J Scott, 1978. "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 549-64, October.
- JS Armstrong, 2004. "Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984," General Economics and Teaching 0412006, EconWPA.
- JS Armstrong, 2004.
"Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making,"
General Economics and Teaching
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