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Stock and bond return predictability: the discrimination power of model selection criteria

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  • Dell'Aquila, Rosario
  • Ronchetti, Elvezio
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 50 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 6 (March)
    Pages: 1478-1495

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:50:y:2006:i:6:p:1478-1495

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    1. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    2. David Hendry & Michael Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 405-28.
    4. Donald B. Keim & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Predicting Returns in the Stock and Bond Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    5. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
    6. Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1996. "Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection under Asymmetric Loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 561-71, Sept.-Oct.
    7. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
    8. John Y. Campbell, 1985. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 1626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
    10. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    12. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1414, 08.
    13. Pesaran, M. H. & Timmermann, A., 1996. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Carlo A. Favero & Marco Aiolfi & Giorgio Primiceri, . "Recursive `thick´ modeling of excess returns and portfolio allocation," Working Papers 197, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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    Cited by:
    1. Michael Scholz & Stefan Sperlich & Jens Perch Nielsen, 2012. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields," Graz Economics Papers 2012-10, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    2. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Forecasting Stock Price Changes: Is it Possible?," Working Papers 2006-22, FEDEA.
    3. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart, 2012. "Simple VARs cannot approximate Markov switching asset allocation decisions: An out-of-sample assessment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3546-3566.

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