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Evaluating Forecast Uncertainty in Econometric Models: The Effect of Alternative Estimators of Maximum Likelihood Covariance Matrix

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  • Calzolari, Giorgio
  • Panattoni, Lorenzo

Abstract

Most of the methods proposed in the literature for evaluating forecast uncertainty in econometric models need an estimate of the structural coefficiencs covariance matrix among input data. When estimation is performed with full information maximum likelihood, alternative estimators of such a covariance matrix (Hessian, outer product, generalized least squares type matrix, quasi maximum likelihood type matrix), although asymptotically equ1valent, often produce large differences in practical applications. Experimental results will be given for some econometric models well known in the literature, both with hiscorical data and with data generated by Monte Carlo.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28806.

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Date of creation: 08 Jul 1984
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28806

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Related research

Keywords: Econometric models; simultaneous equations; maximum likelihood; covariance matrix; standard error of forecast;

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References

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  1. Hendry, D F, 1971. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Systems of Simultaneous Regression Equations with Errors Generated by a Vector Autoregressive Process," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 12(2), pages 257-72, June.
  2. Klein, Lawrence R, 1969. "Estimation on Interdependent Systems in Macroeconometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(2), pages 171-92, April.
  3. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. James M. Brundy & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1971. "Efficient estimation of simultaneous equations by instrumental variables," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1981. "Pseudo maximum likelihood methods : theory," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8129, CEPREMAP.
  6. Brundy, James M & Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 207-24, August.
  7. Hatanaka, Michio, 1978. "On the efficient estimation methods for the macro-economic models nonlinear in variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 323-356, December.
  8. Parke, William R, 1982. "An Algorithm for FIML and 3SLS Estimation of Large Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 81-95, January.
  9. Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Full Information Instrumental Variables Estimation of Simultaneous Equations Systems," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 91-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  11. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1981. "A Note on the Variance of Ex-Post Forecasts in Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1593-95, November.
  12. Ray C. Fair, 1978. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 480, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1983. "Hessian and approximated Hessian matrices in maximum likelihood estimation: a Monte Carlo study," MPRA Paper 28847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1980. "The One-Period Forecast Errors in Nonlinear Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(1), pages 201-08, February.
  15. Trivellato, Ugo & Rettore, Enrico, 1986. "Preliminary Data Errors and Their Impact on the Forecast Error of Simultaneous-Equations Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(4), pages 445-53, October.
  16. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1982. "Evaluating forecast uncertainty due to errors in estimated coefficients: empirical comparison of alternative methods," MPRA Paper 22559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1987. "La varianza delle previsioni nei modelli econometrici
    [Forecast variance in econometric models]
    ," MPRA Paper 23866, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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