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Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia

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Author Info

  • Gomez, Miguel I.
  • Gonzalez, Eliana
  • Melo, Luis F.
  • Torres, Jose L.

Abstract

Replaced with revised version of paper 11/17/06. Former title: Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21181
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA with number 21181.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21181

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Related research

Keywords: Food Inflation; Time Series; Forecast Combination; Inflation Targeting; Financial Economics; C22; E31; Q11;

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References

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  1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hendry, David F & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1989. "Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Staff General Research Papers 11196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Joel Bogdanski & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Alexandre Antonio Tombini, 2001. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: shocks, backward-looking prices, and IMF conditionality," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 82-108 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September.
  6. Luis Fernando melo V. & Martha Misas A., . "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a traves de Minimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 282, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
  8. Coulson, N.E. & Robins, R.P., 1989. "Forecast Combination In A Dynamic Setting," Papers 8-88-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  9. Rachel Lomax, 2005. "Inflation Targeting in Practice: Models, Forecasts, and Hunches," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(3), pages 251-265, September.
  10. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Héctor M. Núñez Amortegui, 2004. "Combinación de pronósticos de la inflación en presencia de cambios estructurales," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002153, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  11. David Hendry & Michael Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. José Luis Torres, . "Modelos Para La Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 365, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  13. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
  14. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
  15. Yutaka Kurihara, 2005. "Why do EU countries use inflation targeting?," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 74-84.
  16. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. John M. Urbanchuk, 1997. "Commodity Markets, Farm-Retail Spreads, and Macroeconomic Condition Assumptions in Food Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1677-1680.
  18. Joel Bogdanski & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Alexandre Antonio Tombini, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Shocks, Backward-Looking Prices, and IMF Conditionality," Working Papers Series 24, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  19. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  20. Frederick L. Joutz, 1997. "Forecasting CPI Food Prices: An Assessment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1681-1685.
  21. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 353, Central Bank of Chile.
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