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Forecasting Employment for Germany

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Author Info

  • Darius Hinz

    ()
    (University of Bielefeld (Student))

  • Camille Logeay

    ()
    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

Abstract

This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and simulation purposes. The authors estimate both single and system error correction equations for German working hours using quarterly raw data covering the period 1980:1-2004:2. Since the focus is on the question whether German reunification has affected or even modified the underlying economic relationships, the authors compare the results to those reported in previous studies for West Germany and Germany, respectively. The authors find that the elasticity of employment with respect to output is robustly estimated and can therefore be restricted to one. The elasticity of employment with respect to the real wage, however, is affected by German reunification and relative factor prices no longer play a significant role. The forecasting quality of the employment equation is satisfactory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 01-2006.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision: Jan 2006
Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:01-2006

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Keywords: employment; forecasting; cointegration; Germany;

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  1. Flaig, Gebhard & Steiner, Viktor, 1989. "Stability and Dynamic Properties of Labour Demand in West German Manufacturing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 395-412, November.
  2. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992. "Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Albert van der Horst, 2003. "Structural estimates of equilibrium unemployment in six OECD economies," CPB Discussion Paper 19, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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