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Estimating Short and Long Run Relationships: A Guide to the Applied Economist

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  • Bhaskara Rao

    (University of the South Pacific)

Abstract

Many applied economists face problems in selecting an appropriate technique to estimate short and long run relationships with the time series methods. This paper reviews three alternative approaches viz., general to specific (GETS), vector autoregressions (VAR) and the vector error correction models (VECM). As in other methodological controversies, definite answers are difficult. It is suggested that if these techniques are seen as tools to summarize data, as in Smith (2000), often there may be only minor differences in their estimates. Therefore a computationally attractive technique is likely to be popular.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/em/papers/0508/0508013.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0508013.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 13 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0508013

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 28. Useful to the applied economists.
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: Var; Cointegration; General to Specific Approach;

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References

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  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hafez Rehman, 2005. "Stability of the money demand function in Asian developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 773-792.
  3. Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
  4. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  6. Kevin Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2003. "Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search," Working Papers 9727, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  7. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  8. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
  9. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
  10. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "The Interaction Between Theory and Observation in Economics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9223, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  11. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Kumar, Saten & Webber, Don J., 2010. "Australasian money demand stability: Application of structural break tests," MPRA Paper 27569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Scheiblecker, Marcus, 2013. "Between cointegration and multicointegration: Modelling time series dynamics by cumulative error correction models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 511-517.
  3. Jamil, Faisal & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2011. "Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5519-5527, September.
  4. Rahmanov, Ramiz, 2014. "A Historical Sketch of Macroeconometrics," MPRA Paper 56869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Mark Frank, 2009. "Income Inequality, Human Capital, and Income Growth: Evidence from a State-Level VAR Analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 37(2), pages 173-185, June.
  6. Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Stauvermann, Peter Josef & Patel, Arvind & Kumar, Radika Devi, 2014. "Exploring the effects of energy consumption on output per worker: A study of Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 575-585.
  7. Kumar, Saten, 2011. "Financial reforms and money demand: Evidence from 20 developing countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 323-334, September.
  8. Kumar, Ronald/R, 2011. "Role of Trade, Aid, Remittances and Financial Development in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 38871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara & Ventura, Marco, 2011. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the USA with the General to Specific Method," MPRA Paper 28867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese & Angelo Pace, 2011. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Italy," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 11, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Paradiso, Antonio, 2011. "Estimates of the US Phillips curve with the general to specific method," MPRA Paper 28411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Kumar, Saten & Pacheco, Gail, 2012. "What determines the long run growth rate in Kenya?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 705-718.

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