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Electricity Demand for Sri Lanka: A Time Series Analysis

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Author Info

  • Himanshu A. Amarawickrama

    ()
    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey & Infrastructure Advisory, Ernst and Young LLP, London)

  • Lester C. Hunt

    ()
    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

Abstract

This study estimates electricity demand functions for Sri Lanka using six econometric techniques. It shows that the preferred specifications differ somewhat and there is a wide range in the long-run price and income elasticities with the estimated long-run income elasticity ranging from 1.0 to 2.0 and the long run price elasticity from 0 to –0.06. There is also a wide range of estimates of the speed with which consumers would adjust to any disequilibrium, although the estimated impact income elasticities tended to be more in agreement ranging from 1.8 to 2.0. Furthermore, the estimated effect of the underlying energy demand trend varies between the different techniques; ranging from being positive to zero to predominantly negative. Despite these differences the forecasts generated from the six models up until 2025 do not differ significantly. Thus on one hand it is encouraging that the Sri Lanka electricity authorities can have some faith in econometrically estimated models used for forecasting. However, by the end of the forecast period in 2025 there is a variation of around 452MW in the base forecast peak demand; which, in relative terms for a small electricity generation system like Sri Lanka’s, represents a considerable difference.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) with number 118.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Energy 33(5) 2008, pp. 724-739. (Revised Version)
Handle: RePEc:sur:seedps:118

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Keywords: Developing Countries; Electricity Demand Estimation; Sri Lanka;

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References

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  1. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
  3. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  4. Morimoto, Risako & Hope, Chris, 2004. "The impact of electricity supply on economic growth in Sri Lanka," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-85, January.
  5. Hunt, Lester & Manning, Neil, 1989. "Energy Price- and Income-Elasticities of Demand: Some Estimates for the UK Using the Cointegration Procedure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 183-93, May.
  6. Himanshu A. Amarawickrama & Lester C. Hunt, 2004. "Sri Lankan Electricity Supply Industry: A Critique of Proposed Reforms," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 109, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  9. Hunt, Lester C. & Judge, Guy & Ninomiya, Yasushi, 2003. "Underlying trends and seasonality in UK energy demand: a sectoral analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-118, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Bhaskara Rao, B. & Rao, Gyaneshwar, 2009. "Cointegration and the demand for gasoline," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3978-3983, October.
  2. Shanthini, Rajaratnam, 2007. "Fossil fuel based CO2 emissions, economic growth, and world crude oil price nexus in the United States," MPRA Paper 29574, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Feb 2011.
  3. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2010. "A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey," MPRA Paper 29579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Shanthini, Rajaratnam, 2010. "Could Sri Lanka afford sustainable electricity consumption practices without harming her economic growth?," MPRA Paper 29582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. A. Talha Yalta, 2013. "Small Sample Bootstrap Inference of Level Relationships in the Presence of Autocorrelated Errors: A Large Scale Simulation Study and an Application in Energy Demand," Working Papers 1301, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  6. Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2010. "Industrial Electricity Demand for Turkey: A Structural Time Series Analysis," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 129, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  7. Besma Talbi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Energy Demand in Tunisia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 452-458.
  8. A. Talha Yalta, 2013. "The Dynamics of Road Energy Demand and Illegal Fuel Activity in Turkey: A Rolling Window Analysis," Working Papers 1304, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2013.

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