Lester C Hunt () (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey) Yasushi Ninomiya (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)
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This paper demonstrates the importance of adequately modelling the Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) and seasonality when estimating transportation oil demand for the UK and Japan. The structural time series model is therefore employed to allow for a stochastic underlying trend and stochastic seasonals using quarterly data from the early 1970s, for both the UK and Japan. It is found that the stochastic seasonals are preferred to the conventional deterministic dummies and, more importantly, the UEDT is found to be highly nonlinear for both countries, with periods where it is both upward and downward sloping.
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Length: 46 pages Date of creation: Feb 2003 Date of revision: Publication status: Published in The Energy Journal, 24(3), July 2003, pp. 63-96 (Revised Version with different title). Handle: RePEc:sur:seedps:107
Find related papers by JEL classification: C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply